A very warm welcome to Day 4 of Royal Ascot, and what a week it’s turning into for EquiAnalytxix Blog readers! At the time of writing, our data has been firing on all cylinders, with a string of big performances that showcase exactly why smart bettors are turning to the Tote World Pool.
Charles Darwin kicked things off in style by landing the opener and returning a solid £1.63 on the Tote. Then came Understudy, who produced a monster run to finish second at huge odds, delivering a place return of £10.85. And the headline moment? Arabian Story landing the prestigious Britannia Handicap at £11.75 on the Tote – well above the industry SP of 15/2 – underlining just how much extra value can be found by playing into the deep and global pools.
Momentum is firmly on our side as we head into another action-packed Friday. With Group 1s, tricky handicaps, and tactical puzzles aplenty, the data is pointing to some cracking value again – and we’re here to help you make the most of it.
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Don’t forget: the Money Back 2nd offer from our friends at the Tote is live for every race again today. If your horse is narrowly denied, you’ll get your stake returned as a free bet. Opt in below and take advantage – especially with so many tight finishes expected again on Day 4.
Race 1: 14:30 Ascot Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies)
Day 4 begins for the Albany Stakes, another 2yo contest where a certain Aidan O’Brien will be looking to continue his stellar record!
Race Analysis
SIGNORA is therefore the best place to start here, as her masterful trainer can do no wrong in these 2yo contests this week. This filly fits the classic mould of a smart one from Ballydoyle, with her debut 3rd being a run full of promise, plus a pedigree that has potential written all over it. Her debut effort earned her an EquiAnalytix Speed Rating of 139 which is very impressive, especially for such a young unexposed horse. But there’s a combination of factors here that prevent her from being in our classic bold-font.. the first being her short price and second being that others look to have achieved far more!
I am hoping here that taking a contrarian view on the favourite will pay handsomely in the form of bigger winning dividends, as there are plenty of horses here with outstanding credentials. Horses such as NANDITA, GREEN SENSE, & AWAKEN all look to have huge chances, especially the latter who just looks the wrong price in the market after an impressive winning debut where she earned a figure of 178! But even that figure has been bettered in this field, by the Richard Spencer trained and Jamie Spencer ridden GOLD DIGGER. This horse made her debut 37 days ago at Yarmouth over 6f, where she ran on very well to get the better of the re-opposing AWAKEN. That day she earned a standout rating of 182, which is phenomenally high for a debutant. And I am very much inclined to believe this level of form, considering the 3rd, 4th and 7th that day all won on their next start! What also attracts us to this horse is the EquiAnalytix Breeding Data, where you will notice the sire of this horse is Starman. Starman continues to excel in his first season as a sire, and don’t forget he was the sire of yesterday’s 2nd in the Queen Mary, our huge outsider Flowerhead. The selection has the form in the book, and the pedigree to improve, hence at the prices she must be sided with.
🎯 Exacta: Gold Digger / Awaken / Nandita
💥 Trifecta: Gold Digger / Awaken / Nandita
Race 2: 15:05 Ascot Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (No Geldings)
The Commonwealth Cup is our first Group 1 of the day, a 6f sprint which on rattling fast ground could see someone break the course record!
Race Analysis
The obvious starting place here, and incidentally the selection from the data, is SHADOW OF LIGHT. This 3yo colt will, at the time of writing, be looking to give trainer Charlie Appleby his first Royal Ascot winner since 2022, a crazy statistic given that stable’s success. The horse was last seen running a fantastic race in 3rd in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas, a race well advertised given what Field Of Gold has since gone on to do. That day the selection looked an obvious non-stayer, and hence dropping back to a strongly run 6f could just suit this horse perfectly. Whilst his recent ratings will need to be improved upon, figures of 178, 158 and 140 on the horse’s last 3 starts are an outstanding set of performances, and it’s therefore no surprise to see him top our predictive Total Performance Rating (TPR). A large driver of that will also be the fact the Appleby team are operating at an average rating of 121 across all runners in the last month, in excess of their 12m average with 70% of horses running to form. So whilst that winner may have proven elusive, this looks the obvious horse to disrupt that.
This race screams throwing in a few lively outsiders to put in with the selection for Exotics purposes. Horses such as WHISTLEJACKET, BABOUCHE & LADY WITH THE LAMP look ideal candidates for that and would really result in a big dividend if they were to hit the frame!
🤝 Swinger: Shadow Of Light & Whistlejacket & Babouche
🎯 Exacta Box: Shadow Of Light / Whistlejacket / Babouche
Race 3: 15:40 Ascot Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)
Up next we step back into handicap company, this time for the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, a race for horses rated up to 105 ran over the 1m 4f trip.
Race Analysis
As we’ve come to expect this week, that initial first glance at the table can leave you asking more questions than usual, and that just reflects how competitive the racing is at Royal Ascot. I must admit that this year more than most, the races have been tighter and tighter and hence no surprise to see so many close finishes, and this could well be the same. Topping the TPR is MUTAAWID who looked ultra progressive when winning at Newmarket on his penultimate start, with a rating of 163 cementing that promise. Yet he went on to disappoint next time at Epsom and I couldn’t say with confidence that he just didn’t handle the track. A rating of 146 however is not bad, but it may well just be this horse is now at his level. ALMOSHER is a horse that has risen high in the handicap, and equally STRESSFREE will require a lifetime best to win off a mark of 102. That then leaves us looking further down and I won’t lie when I say I have been very drawn to the chances of SIEGE OF TROY. Representing team Murtagh, this daughter of Siyouni has just done nothing but improve of late. Recent ratings of 126, 134 and 191 clearly show a horse on the rise, yet instead her handicap mark has declined and a mark of 99 looks more than lenient here. Her rating last time of 191 is of obvious interest, and that came in a hot Listed race on Irish 2,000 Guineas day and hence the drop back into handicap company is an obvious positive. She remains a very big price and must be considered here.
Given the competitive nature of this race, I want to also put forward another lively contender. Whilst many are expecting current market leader ETHICAL DIAMOND to take all the beating for powerful connections, I just cannot get behind that horse’s data. From both a form, stable form and breeding perspective it doesn’t make sense and whilst he can equally go on to win by 5 lengths, I cannot find conviction here. Instead, I want to chance a huge outsider that looks fascinating for a team that love this meeting. FLIGHT LEADER represents the Osbournes here, and having made a very encouraging UK debut at Chester 42 days ago, I think his price looks clear value. The horse reached a very high level of form in France, but it’s his breeding that catches my eye. Being by Frankel who boasts some of the best progeny data in our entire database, out of a mare called Principal Role who herself reached a mark of 114, this horse is bred to very, very smart. Now he’s already in the bucket given his rating of 105, but if you wanted to find that “group horse in a handicap”, this could be it.
🤝 Swinger: Siege Of Troy & Flight Leader
Race 4: 16:20 Ascot Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies)
The Coronation Stakes is always a race we look forward to, seeing such a strong field of fillies go to post in this valuable Group 1 contest.
Race Analysis
Aidan O’Brien once again looks to hold plenty of the key contenders in search of yet another Group 1, but interestingly the data does not agree with Ryan Moore’s choice. Now I am not for one second suggesting that he’s got it all wrong, as sitting on these horses day in, day out you’d expect him to get it right more often than not, but given the figures I would think it might have been a tough choice at least! JANUARY is the choice of Ryan Moore here, a filly beautifully bred as you’d expect being by Kingman out of I Can Fly who herself got to a mark of 116. This horse’s recent figures in defeat have still been good, recording 145, 122 and 122, the latter being in the Irish 1,000 Guineas where she finished 8th. Her ratings are good, but you can’t help but feel that stablemate EXACTLY has achieved more at this stage. Her recent figures read 180, 122 and 174, which represents an outstanding level of form and she has subsequently gone on to run well in 4th in the French 1,000 Guineas in what ended up a messy finish. By Frankel, a running theme of today’s selections, and out of an equally top-class mare, she is the one I would want to side with here. I would also not be surprised to see them both there at the finish which opens up a real opportunity in the Swinger market, and the Exacta for those feeling brave!
Race 5: 17:00 Ascot Sandringham Stakes (Fillies Handicap)
We stick with the fillies here in Race 5 which brings the latest renewal of the Sandringham, a devilishly competitive handicap over the straight mile trip.
Race Analysis
A notoriously competitive handicap sees a maximum field of 28 go to post here, in a race where you will need plenty of luck. This is however an example of a race where the data has a firm selection, and that’s SUPERMODEL. Trained by William Haggas and ridden by Tom Marquand, this 3yo filly left a big impression on her reappearance at Nottingham just 19 days ago. That day she dwelt early on but finished strongly to win going away, recording an outstanding figure of 178. For a horse that had only run 3 times that’s very impressive, and therefore a handicap mark of 90 could prove very attractive. Her stable is in great form with average runners achieving a figure of 104, and her pedigree is equally as impressive scoring very highly given she’s a daughter of Night Of Thunder. It certainly won’t be easy, but all the data points towards a huge run here! Main dangers would be DANCING TEAPOT, BETTY CLOVER & DASH OF AZURE.
DIT: and as many will have seen on the morning of the race our selection SUPERMODEL has been declared a non-runner. Those eagle-eyed of you have reached out asking for a replacement, and I think naturally here then the obvious choice is BETTER CLOVER. This race will be the first time the filly has seen a handicap, having spent her career competing at a much higher level, with her 2nd at Goodwood on her penultimate start reading especially well considering what the winner that day has gone on to achieve. That day she earned a standout figure of 155 which now Supermodel is a non-runner, is the best piece of form on offer! The team have had their winner this weak and I believe a mark of 100 could well underestimate this filly who we know is far classier than several of these.
🤝 Swinger: Betty Clover & Dash Of Azure
Race 6: 17:35 Ascot King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings)
Our penultimate race of Day 4 is the King Edward VII Stakes, a Group 2 once again over the 1m 4f trip.
Race Analysis
This race on paper looks a fascinating renewal, with several of these boasting solid credentials. AMILOC is proving popular in the market at the time of writing and it’s not hard to understand why. He remains unbeaten from 4 starts and seems to be one of those horses that only does enough in his races, a dangerous characteristic for analysts of racing as it’s hard to know how much a horse has left! But the ratings can really help here as a guide and it suggests this horse is potentially very smart. Figures of 146, 156 and 130 are very solid indeed, but amazingly despite this being a Group 2, there’s a horse with better form. Ballydoyle’s PUPPET MASTER won the Listed Derby Trial at Lingfield 41 days ago, and whilst not going on to Epsom, has his sights set on this weaker contest. That day he recorded a really good time, clocking a rating of 166 which was a clear career best. He looked to relish the step up in trip and this son of Camelot is bred to be a proper stayer. Providing he gets a pace to aim at, which the Pace Map suggests he should, he can make it 3 wins from 6 starts.
EDIT: Frustratingly this race brings another last minute non-runner in the form of selection Puppet Master. What that leaves in my opinion is a match race between both AMILOC and ZAHRANN. The former we have explained above can show any amount of improvement here given his “just enough” mentality, and whilst the latter has been nothing but impressive in 3 runs, I am not convinced he deserves to be as short as he is in the market right now, albeit an Exacta looks a sensible cover.
🎯 Exacta Box: Amiloc / Zahrann
Race 7: 18:10 Ascot Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap)
We come to a close with another deep handicap, this time a cavalry charge over the minimum trip of 5f.
Race Analysis
Breaking down this field looks a real challenge. Heading up the TPR is MISS LAMAI for the Karl Burke team, but recent figures of 117, 89 and 102 don’t massively appeal in this better contest. A chance should always be given to the Boughey and Loughnane combination, represented here by ENGLEMERE, but again the ratings don’t really catch the eye, where similar can be said for many more in this race. On the flipside, there are a couple in here that I feel are worth chancing in a race that screams the Swinger market. Your current market leader is REALIGN for Team Haggas, who the data suggests can have a good day at the office on Friday. This horse will run in Wathnan racing colours, and boasts a very unexposed profile having come first, second and third in only three career starts. Most notably the horse won well last time at Salisbury recording an exemplary rating of 130. With his team in red hot form, he has to go close here. But the same must be said for outsider ADRESTIA who will have the services of top jockey Oisin Murphy. This horse boasts the highest last time out figure of the entire field of 148, and with strong breeding data to combine with that looks to have a huge chance at a big price at the time of writing.🔨 Build a Bet
🎲 Tote Placepot – Royal Ascot (Races 1–6)
- Leg 1 (14:30): Gold Digger (6), Awaken (1)
- Leg 2 (15:05): Shadow Of Light (9), Whistlejacket (12), Babouche (14)
- Leg 3 (15:40): Siege Of Troy (11), Flight Leader (2)
- Leg 4 (16:20): Exactly (5), January (8)
- Leg 5 (17:00): Betty Clover (2), Dancing Teapot (24)
- Leg 6 (17:35): Amiloc (1)
📋 Selection Recap
A grouped summary of all horses mentioned in bold from the blog analysis:
- Race 1 – Albany Stakes: Gold Digger
- Race 2 – Commonwealth Cup: Shadow Of Light
- Race 3 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes: Siege Of Troy, Flight Leader
- Race 4 – Coronation Stakes: Exactly
- Race 5 – Sandringham Stakes: Betty Clover
- Race 6 – King Edward VII Stakes: Amiloc
- Race 7 – Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes: Realign, Adrestia
These selections are drawn from horses highlighted in bold within the EquiAnalytix blog analysis for Friday at Royal Ascot.
Conclusion
Thanks for joining us for another big day at Royal Ascot. With standout returns from the likes of Charles Darwin, Understudy, and Arabian Story, Day 3 proved just how effective a data-led approach can be – especially when combined with the value on offer through the Tote World Pool.
As always, our selections are built on performance analytics, breeding trends, and stable-level metrics – helping to uncover both solid favourites and overlooked outsiders across all markets. The liquidity and global scope of the Tote continues to create opportunities that traditional SPs just can’t match.
We’re set for another thrilling afternoon on Day 4, with high-class Group races and fiendish handicaps offering more value plays across the card. Best of luck with your bets – and don’t forget to check back tomorrow for our full preview of Day 5, the grand finale of the week.
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