Welcome back, new and returning readers, to the EquiAnalytix blog – and what a time to join us. Hot off the back of a stellar Derby Day, our data-driven insights continue to deliver. We kicked things off at Epsom with a £21.15 Swinger Dividend in the opener, before JM Jungle landed the Dash returning a Tote Win dividend of £8.00. But the real fireworks in that race came through the exotics, where the data gave readers the tools to identify those placed horses which returned a £48.10 Exacta and a monster £314.60 Trifecta. As the World Pool continues to inject huge liquidity into these major meetings, the value in the Tote pools is there for those prepared to look deeper.
And there’s no bigger stage than Royal Ascot. Five days, thirty-five races, and a parade of the best thoroughbreds from around the globe – all unfolding under the gaze of royalty and punters alike. From Group 1 clashes to fiendishly competitive handicaps, Royal Ascot is a true test of data and discipline. Last year, our readers walked away with 13 winners from 49 blog selections, a £73.40 Tote return to £1 Win stakes, and a £75.80 Exacta landed in one of the toughest puzzles of the week. This year, with confidence high and the data in flying form – including flagging this year’s 2,000 Guineas winner, we’re ready to go again.
And what’s more, given the incredible liquidity on offer for this World Pool event, we have taken the time to roll our Bet Builder function. Underneath each race you will have the option to utilise our data and use a simple Build window to add those bets to your slip! An easy way to make the most of those bigger dividends!
Tote Money Back 2nd Offer!
As well as offering a £400k guaranteed Placepot pool for each of the 5 days this week at Royal Ascot, our friends at the Tote have gone even further and are offering punters a Money Back 2nd offer for every single race. Paid out as a free bet, this generous offer acts as a clear perk for when your horse narrowly misses out, and I can tell you ahead of time that this week will bring about plenty of heartbreak with only the length of a horse’s nostril being the difference between winning and losing. Tote customers can opt-in for this special offer for Royal Ascot by using the link below!
Race 1: 14:30 Ascot Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1)
We get under way with the Queen Anne, a race steeped with history which has showcased some of the very best milers we’ve ever seen on a racecourse.
Race Analysis:
I will begin by making you all feel very old, as it’s now 13 years since we saw the mighty Frankel canter away from his rivals in this race in 2012, a performance that many believe to have been one of his very best. This race is full of quality horses, in recent years propelling horses such as Toronado, Baaeed and of course last year’s hero Charyn. It’s always a very competitive contest and this year certainly lives up to that.
A quick glance below will showcase a group of horses who will all be re-opposing after last month’s Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. That day it was the John & Thady Gosden colt LEAD ARTIST who came away an impressive winner. Followed closely by DANCING GEMINI, both these horses took a big step forward from their season reappearance and were impressive on the day, recording respective EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings of 176 and 173. Those in isolation are outstanding figures, given we benchmark our ratings at 100. However, this is an incredibly deep contest this year and those ratings just mightn’t be good enough to land this!
Instead, I want to start with last year’s 2,000 Guineas winner NOTABLE SPEECH. This horse also competed in the Lockinge and at one stage looked to be traveling very strongly before tiring late on, earning a figure of just 150. But both this horse and current market leader ROSALLION look sure to both come on plenty for the run, the difference between being that the selection represents a team in the very best form. Charlie Appleby is averaging a rating of 126 across all his runners in the last month, above his already outstanding record of 106 over the last year! They are in red hot form and I fully expect them to have a superb Royal Ascot, and this son of Dubawi would be a very fitting start to the week.
But I must also here talk about the other Gosden horse, SARDINIAN WARRIOR, who has impressed me, and the ratings on each run this year. His last 3 figures of 169, 182 and 205, before only narrowly going down in a Group 1 in France shows a horse on a steep curve of improvement. The way he moved through his race at Ascot on his penultimate start, beating a course specialist and earning a standout figure of 205 has left us feeling that right now the market has his chances all wrong.
🏆 Back Sardinian Warrior to Win
🤝 Swinger: Notable Speech & Sardinian Warrior
Race 2: 15:05 Ascot Coventry Stakes (Group 2)
The Coventry is up next and marks the first of several big-field 2yo contests of the week, this one being over 6f.
Race Analysis
At the time of writing, your current market leader is the the 270,000 Guineas purchase, POSTMODERN. This horse has only had the one start, but boy was it impressive. 26 days ago this son of Too Darn Hot made a mockery of a good field at Yarmouth, in the process earning what is a standout rating of 176. That figure in isolation is the very best speed figure on offer in this contest, and in a race where it has often paid to follow these standout debut ratings, he has to be of firm interest.
Of the others, GSTAAD is proving very popular in the early markets having received the vote of jockey Ryan Moore. He will of course run his race but a debut rating of 140 will certainly need to be improved upon. Often in these 2yo races you will hear me drag on about the predictive power of the EquiAnalytix Breeding Data. This data has been amalgamated by studying the performance of every sire, dam and damsire progeny over the last 50yrs, where our clear edge is in actually quantifying that phrase you hear oh so often in racing, “he/she is very well bred”. With that, members will have identified that the first selection POSTMODERN screens very well here, with Too Darn Hot progeny averaging a rating of 88 across all their runs. That figure is only bettered by one sire in this field, and that’s first-season-sire Starman. Starman has proven incredibly successful with his small number of runners so far this season, and arguably not many were as eye-catching as the selection BONE MARRA. Sat last on debut at Wolverhampton, this horse sprung into life late on and charged to a comfortable victory. Whilst many pointed towards a pace collapse that day, the figures disagree, as the horse still managed a rating of 144 for that effort, which is a serious level of form on debut. With any amount of improvement to come, he can be one to side with at a huge price.
Race 3: 15:40 Ascot King Charles III Stakes (Group 1)
We have the King Charles III Stakes next, one of the flagship 5f contests of the week.
Race Analysis
Of course we must start with our market leader, and last year’s winning mare, ASFOORA. It’s fantastic to see this mare make the trip over once again to try retain her title at a track she clearly performs very well at. The difference this time, is that she arrives without a prep run, plus a new headgear combination. Of course, she is a Group 1 sprinter and demands the utmost respect, but I do think that some of last year’s re-opposing rivals may well bridge the gap this year.
REGIONAL made a solid comeback 73 days ago at Newbury over 6f, and this son of Territories looks sure to be on the premises once again for the Bethell team. That horse’s most recent figure of 179 would be a clear standout in most races, but here is bettered by the rapidly improving mare BELIEVING. Trained by George Boughey and ridden by the master Ryan Moore, this 5yo mare has plenty of improvement still to come and her ratings showcase that. Her last 3 runs on UK soil earned her figures of 135, 147 and 191, a serious level of form. She has since then gone on to run very well at Longchamp on ground that wouldn’t have been to her liking, before recently landing Group 1 success in Meydan. This is a very high quality mare and with another year of racing under her belt, I think she could be a horse to follow this season.
Race 4: 16:20 Ascot St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1)
The St James’s Palace is next, a Group 1 contest that often features several of those that have competed in both the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas, and this year is no different!
Race Analysis
At the time of writing I will be honest that I cannot quite understand the price difference between current market leader FIELD OF GOLD, and the selection RULING COURT. The latter was a late non-runner in the Derby having been a very impressive winner of the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, delivering his trademark turn of foot on quick ground. With those conditions again likely to be on offer, I am just surprised to see him so far off FIELD OF GOLD in the market. A closer look at the figures will reveal that FIELD OF GOLD took a nice step forward from Newmarket when winning the Irish 2,000 Guineas, achieving a standout figure of 175. Of course that’s the best piece of form on offer but he still has to turn the tables with RULING COURT and that will require even more. The selection also is a clear standout on our breeding data, where Justify progeny continue to excel on the track. At the prices, he has to be the one here for win purposes but keep in mind that deeper liquidity within the Exacta market!
Race 5: 17:00 Ascot Ascot Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
Race 5 brings about our first handicap of the week, the Ascot Stakes. This gruelling 2m 4f contest will test every bit of stamina these horses have and will require a very gutsy performance to win.
Race Analysis
For this race we do have a standout in the market at the time of writing, where the combination of the King, Willie Mullins & Ryan Moore is of course going to attract plenty of support. REACHING HIGH is a standout on the breeding data being Sea The Stars out of the mighty Estimate, who herself reached a mark of 114. This horse will be very popular and his run at Leopardstown 32 days ago was good enough, achieving a rating of 124. But he will need to improve, and we can only go from the figures in front of us and they all suggest that this race remains far more open.
Horses such as ARTISTIC STAR, MR HAMPSTEAD, EAST INDIA DOCK & COMFORT ZONE all warrant the upmost respect under conditions that should suit plenty. However there are two lively outsiders here at the time of writing that I believe to be standouts from the data. Both MANXMAN and NURBURGRING have similar profiles in the sense they have competed in both the English and Irish Cesarewitch respectively, both proving their stamina for this extreme test. But what is often most interesting in these handicaps is seeing the trajectory of the ratings over the last few runs, and what’s clear with both of these horses is that despite not winning, they are performing to a higher and higher level on each run. Both look to have attractive weights for this contest and at the prices I would not be surprised to see both hit the frame late on for Exotics players!
🤝 Swinger: Nurburgring & Manxman
🎯 Exacta: Nurburgring / Manxman
Race 6: 17:35 Ascot Wolferton Stakes (Listed Race)
The Wolferton is a Listed contest over near 1m 2f and interestingly this year appears wide open.
Race Analysis
With currently 4/1 the field, headed by the Shadwell horse ENFJAAR, this race looks perfect for Exotics players. In a market that will see serious liquidity due to the World Pool, covering across multiple Exacta, Trifecta & Swinger bets looks the right play. That’s because when you look at the table below, several of these horses boast some very impressive recent figures. For Win purposes we have to be looking at SONS AND LOVERS for the Joseph O’Brien team, having only his 3rd start for connections. It was his never-nearer 4th last time that peaks our attention given it delivered a standout rating of 201, a feat not bettered by any of the day’s opposition. He looks sure to go well but I would be ensuring I have horses such as MILITARY ORDER, PHANTOM FLIGHT & even outsider GALEN covered in my bets. These horses all boast a terrific level of recent form, making this a very hot renewal and on paper far better than a Listed contest!
🎯 Exacta: Sons And Lovers / Military Order / Phantom Flight
Race 7: 18:10 Ascot Copper Horse Stakes (Handicap)
Day 1 comes to a close with another handicap, this time over the unique 1m 6f trip where a field of 16 are set to go to post.
Race Analysis
At the time of writing the market has latched onto Wathnan’s racing FRENCH MASTER, a recent recruit having been an impressive winner at Goodwood 24 days ago. That day the horse showed clear desire to get his head in front, and ratings of 133, 108 and 112 on his last 3 outings warrant obvious respect. However this is one of those occasions where the data has identified horses that have on paper a poor level of recent form, yet they still have achieved standout speed ratings. The obvious horse therefore is AERONAUTIC again for the Joseph O’Brien team. You see he only mustered 14th from 19 on his last start but incidentally still recorded a speed figure of 164. That of course must be improved upon but the race that day was very messy and it paid to be prominent. It appeared to me this horse was well looked after late on with a view to getting him ready for bigger days ahead, and there are not many bigger than Royal Ascot. He will have improved for the repearance run and on figures alone this outsider demands attention in the lucky last!
🎲 Tote Placepot – Royal Ascot (Races 1–6)
Select at least one horse to place in each of the opening six races at Epsom:
- Leg 1 (14:30): Notable Speech (8), Sardinian Warrior (11)
- Leg 2 (15:05): Postmodern (12), Bone Marra (4)
- Leg 3 (15:40): Believing (14)
- Leg 4 (16:20): Ruling Court (6), Field Of Gold (1)
- Leg 5 (17:00): Nurburgring (13), Manxman (8)
- Leg 6 (17:35): Sons And Lovers (14), Military Order (3)
Conclusion
Thank you for following our in-depth coverage of Royal Ascot Day 1. As horse racing data continues to evolve, applying rigorous performance analytics, breeding metrics, and real-time trends remains key to uncovering value others miss, especially within the Tote pools, where deep liquidity meets opportunity.
With the World Pool in full swing, every race today offers the chance for elevated returns across Win, Place & Exotics markets. Whether you’re chasing a big-priced outsider or building out Placepot lines, our data continues to prove its worth, just as it did on Derby Day, and throughout Royal Ascot last year.
All selections today are backed by insight, not instinct, and we’re excited to see how the numbers play out on the biggest stage of all. Be sure to follow along across the week, and we will be back with fresh analysis, updates, and results after racing.
Good luck today, and stay tuned for our expert views on each of the 5 days!
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