Welcome back the EquiAnalytix World Pool Guide for Royal Ascot, where we now head into Day 3! After what was an eventful Day 2, I am delighted to report that at the time of writing the data has once again proven its worth, picking out not only a huge outsider to run a cracker in the opener, but also to find Ombudsman who was a stylish winner of the Prince of Wales’s Stakes. And what’s better, given the liquidity in the World Pool that we keep going on about, the Tote dividend paid £8.40 for the Win!
A clear bounce back to form and we are not yet half way through this wonderful week of racing! Day 3 brings us plenty of quality action including the Ascot Gold Cup, plus some tricky handicaps. But with the data warming up nicely, we look forward to more insights on each horse’s form ratings, breeding data & so much more.
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Race 1: 14:30 Ascot Norfolk Stakes (Group 2)
We begin the afternoon with the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes, a 5f dash for the 2yos which can often bring up a smart performance.
Race Analysis
And whilst Aidan O’Brien’s older horses haven’t quite hit 100% so far this week, his 2yos have been flying, and he has one here that the data just cannot get away from. CHARLES DARWIN looks potentially leagues above his rivals in this opener, and whilst the majority are open to plenty of improvement, this lad already has some serious form in book. Having won two from his three career starts this year, his ratings have been on a steep upward curve, rising from 108 to 118 to most recently 164. That 164 is by far the best piece of form on offer in the race, where this son of No Nay Never put away his rivals at Naas 32 days ago. No Nay Never progeny continue to screen very well on the 2yo Breeding Data, and it leaves this one incredibly tough to beat, and a thoroughly deserving favourite.
Of the remainder, as mentioned I would expect plenty to take a big step forward from their respective debuts, and perhaps two that I would give mention to here for Exotics betting purposes are the Andrew Balding trained COMICAL POINT, and the Amo Racing horse LONDON BOY. The former posted a good figure of 107 on debut, but it’s his Breeding data being by Blue Point that piques my interest at a big price. LONDON BOY is a horse very well regarded amongst circles and was a warm favourite on debut recently at Brighton. Despite clear greenness, this horse won well and in the process earned a very respectable figure of 135. Connections will be desperate to get on the board with this son of Havana Grey and I think he can cause a stir in the Exotics pools!
🎯 Exacta: Charles Darwin / Comical Point / London Boy
💥 Trifecta: Charles Darwin / Comical Point / London Boy
Race 2: 15:05 Ascot King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
The King George V Stakes is next, a notoriously tough handicap which consists of a large field hurtling over the 1m 4f trip.
Race Analysis
This contest is often a tough one to assess as you’re dealing with a field of young horses, most of which will be stepping up to this 1m 4f trip for the very first time. But as is the way with deep handicaps at the Royal meeting, it can provide clear value to punters! Starting from the very top, SERIOUS CONTENDER may well be just that for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore, and this horse the exact profile you would be looking for in this type of race. This 3yo son of Wootton Bassett is out of a Galileo mare, and therefore stepping up from 10f last time to 12f looks an obvious move. His ratings have been very good to date, recording 103, 146 and 142 on his last 3 outings, all of which will see him competitive on the afternoon. The issue? Well there are others lurking here with higher recent figures, and far more compelling pedigrees. I fully appreciate Ryan will get the choice here, but this race contains a stablemate I am fascinated by.
That horse is PROPOSE, who will be ridden by Sean Levey. To begin, this horse has an outstanding pedigree that has left the EquiAnalytix Breeding Data purring. By Frankel, who boasts some of the very best progeny ratings in our entire 50-year database, out of a Showcasing mare called Prize Exhibit who herself reached a mark of 98 on the level.. you can understand my excitement. Looking then at this horse’s recent form, he got off the mark at the 3rd time of asking 26 days ago in a maiden at the Curragh. What struck us that day is that we had opposed him with a horse that has subsequently gone onto win, proving this race was no fluke. The selection took a big jump forward from his race at Dundalk, earning a rating of 148 for winning which is amongst some of the top form in this race. Yes, he is the apparent second-string… but his price offers clear value for an unexposed, well-bred colt.
For this race I also want to put forward one more that I believe can go very close. Sticking with the O’Briens, Joseph has already this week showed that his horses are in much better form, with Nurburgring a very close 2nd for us on Day 1, but his other horses have equally all taken their form to a new level. Therefore looking at the figures, a chance has to be taken on OMNI MAN who looks to double up after a recent success at Roscommon. That day he oozed class and galloped away from his rivals late on to suggest that this step up in trip and grade should be fine. A rating for that victory of 156 is what really gets our attention and the data suggests that the time of writing, this horse is completely the wrong price!
Race 3: 15:40 Ascot Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2)
Race 3 is the Ribblesdale Stakes, a Group 2 for the fillies over the similar 1m 4f trip, and this one looks wide open!
Race Analysis
Admittedly the data really has struggled to find a standout performer for the race and therefore we would echo caution when going through this race. At the time of writing, the current market leader is CATALINA DELCARPIO for the Paddy Twomey and Billy Lee combination. This filly has looked potentially classy from her two starts, winning well on debut before meeting plenty of trouble last time when 2nd. On the eye she would appear the one to beat but her two figures of 98 and 113 just don’t stack up for a potential Group 2 winner, and she really will need to take a big step forward here.
Aidan O’Brien is represented here with 3 very nicely bred fillies, and I am inclined to agree with Ryan Moore’s selection of GARDEN OF EDEN as the best chance of the 3 given her win last time at Naas. But again, a figure of 115 for that effort hardly jumps off the page! And that then brings us to the Gosden duo of LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL & UNDERSTUDY who are only split by 1pt on their respective most recent run. Both look to have a good chance in what is a very open renewal.
🏆 Back Life Is Beautiful to Win
🤝 Swinger: Life Is Beautiful & Understudy
Race 4: 16:20 Ascot Gold Cup (Group 1)
Up next is the feature of Day 3, the Ascot Gold Cup. Without Kyprios this year it has left the stage wide open for a new star-stayer to emerge, but who is up to it?
Race Analysis
And whilst Ballydoyle lost their Champion Stayer in this race, the data firmly suggests that they may have another on their hands in the form of ILLINOIS. This horse will be stepping up to the marathon trip of 2m for the first time, having kept good company over middle-distances. With 4 of this horse’s 7 career starts delivering EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings in excess of 140, it proves he is a real Group 1 performer and that was proven once again when grinding it out at Chester 42 days ago, in the process earning a figure of 148. On his pedigree being by Galileo should help this horse stay the longer distance, and I am excited to see him on the day.
But with the data we have to always acknowledge those eye-catching performance, and whilst TRAWLERMAN, COLTRANE and SWEET WILLIAM all demand respect, I remain fascinated by the James Ferguson runner WONDER LEGEND. Now of course on official handicap figures this horse has 8 lengths to find with our first selection, but he has been incredibly progressive, is only a 5yo and his LTO rating of 222 jumps off the page. That was for landing a valuable handicap at Newcastle and whilst he remains lightly raced on the turf, there is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he shouldn’t handle it. That rating alone makes me very interested in this horse, even more so at the prices!
🤝 Swinger: Illinois & Wonder Legend
Race 5: 17:00 Ascot Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
The Britannia Stakes is up next and that means one thing, trying to analyse arguably the toughest race of the season, let alone the week!
Race Analysis
For starters, we could give a chance to many of these horses just simply as this race features near-group-level horses that all have displayed the qualities to land such a contest. Luck will need to be on your side here as there will no doubt be hard luck stories. Looking through the data whilst I have been able to see pockets of interest amongst the recent form of TEROOMM, FEARNOT & RAAFEDD, the data has instead flagged 3 horses which make near-impossible to split.
So rather than letting the human impact override our data, I will go through each of them! First up is ARABIAN STORY, who despite having only been seen once racing on our shores, it was a mightily impressive display. It was a good field at Chelmsford that he beat 28 days ago, and a rating of 161 really cements that performance. His connections remain in good form, top jockey Oisin Murphy takes the ride and I just cannot see him outside of the frame given his sharp improvement of late. However, the same can be said for the new two horses, both of which are trained by Ralph Beckett who remains a master in these types of races. Both CONSOLIDATION and BRAVE MISSION hold outstanding claims, with the latter having posted figures of 125, 160 and 167 for a third and two wins, and the latter boasting a standout pedigree in this field by Frankel out of a mare once rated 100. The former can keep improving off a mark of 95 and the latter just looks like he’s been prepped for exactly this race, and under man-of-the-moment Colin Keane, it would be no surprise to see him land the spoils.
A race in which the data can’t split them offers up a world of opportunity in the deep Tote World Pools, and this race not only looks good from a Win perspective with 3 good prices, but also those Exactas, Swingers, and if you’re brave, a Trifecta!
💥 Trifecta: Arabian Story / Consolidation / Brave Mission
Race 6: 17:35 Ascot Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3)
Our penultimate race on Day 3 sees a good field head to post for the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes, a race over just shy of 10f.
Race Analysis
And if Race 5 left you with more questions then answers, Race 6, from a data perspective, appears much clearer. That’s because arguably all roads lead to the Gosden horse, DETAIN. This horse boasts the best ratings on offer of late, having achieved good figures of 145 and 106, before posting a mammoth effort last time of 196. That figure alone makes him a standout and whilst that came over a mile at Chelmsford, this step up to 10f on a good surface looks tailor-made for this horse. Colin Keane has had a brilliant week so far and therefore it would be no surprise to see him return to the Winner’s Enclosure once again in those famous silks.
Race 7: 18:10 Ascot Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)
And Day 3 draws to a close with the Buckingham Palace Stakes, a seriously competitive handicap over the 7f trip.
Race Analysis
A final conundrum to assess on Day 3 and it’s certainly a challenging one. At the time of writing the market has latched onto ENGLISH OAK who will look to recapture the form of his previous Royal Ascot success, but despite a sliding handicap mark his figures don’t really suggest that is likely. YORKSHIRE ran a great race last time in a major handicap at Haydock, earning a career best rating of 171, but this is a big step up in grade and I would worry if he can keep improving. With APIARIST being a far better performer on the AW, the surface of his recent standout figure of 208, it’s a race where it becomes much easier to say what doesn’t win rather than what does. But I, supported by the data, am willing to give one final chance to ROI DE FRANCE for the Gosden team. This horse has always promised to land a big pot, has often been popular in the market and his figures have always suggested a win is coming. Those recent figures of 140, 214 and 171 last time when 6th at the track are of course a standout in this field, and the hope is that a true gallop will give this horse plenty to aim at, and no doubt Ryan Moore’s assistance in the saddle can only be a positive. At the time of writing the horse remains an attractive price and with the Gosden team hitting top form, expect a big run to close Day 3!
🎲 Tote Placepot – Royal Ascot (Races 1–6)
Select at least one horse to place in each of the opening six races at Ascot:
- Leg 1 (14:30): Charles Darwin (3)
- Leg 2 (15:05): Propose (11), Omni Man (9)
- Leg 3 (15:40): Life Is Beautiful (9), Understudy (11)
- Leg 4 (16:20): Illinois (8), Wonder Legend (5)
- Leg 5 (17:00): Arabian Story (5), Consolidation (12), Brave Mission (28)
- Leg 6 (17:35): Detain (3)
📋 Selection Recap
A grouped summary of all horses mentioned in bold from the blog analysis:
- Race 1 – Norfolk Stakes: Charles Darwin
- Race 2 – King George V Stakes: Propose, Omni Man
- Race 3 – Ribblesdale Stakes: Life Is Beautiful, Understudy
- Race 4 – Gold Cup: Illinois, Wonder Legend
- Race 5 – Britannia Stakes: Arabian Story, Consolidation, Brave Mission
- Race 6 – Hampton Court Stakes: Detain
- Race 7 – Buckingham Palace Stakes: Roi De France
These selections were highlighted using bold tags in the blog and are based on EquiAnalytix data analysis, including ratings, trajectory, and breeding profiles.
Conclusion
Thank you for joining us for our expert coverage of Royal Ascot Day 3. As always, our approach blends performance analytics, breeding intelligence, and market-aware insights to identify genuine value, particularly in the World Pool, where liquidity creates opportunity.
With deep pools and enhanced payouts on offer, the afternoon’s races present a prime chance to leverage data-led strategies across the Win, Place, and Exotic markets. From strong fancies to lively outsiders, every EquiAnalytix selection is rooted in substance, not sentiment.
Best of luck with Day 3 – and be sure to check back tomorrow for our full Day 4 preview and analysis.
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