Introduction
Irish Derby Day is the showpiece of the Irish Flat season, and the Curragh serves up a nine-race card on Sunday 28 June 2026 headed by the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby, the Group 1 over a mile and a half that gives the day its name. There is depth to match the feature: a Group 3 in the International Stakes, two Listed sprints in the Dash and the Celebration Stakes, and four valuable Premier Handicaps, including the closing staying contest. The going is Good early, easing to Good To Firm as the afternoon wears on.
This is our race-by-race breakdown of the whole card, produced in partnership with the Tote, with Tote World Pool operating across every race so that pools and dividends are co-mingled into a single liquid market. The Tote Placepot covers the first six races, and we flag each leg below; the Irish Derby and the two handicaps that follow it fall outside the Placepot.
Everything here runs on our TPR, the Total Performance Rating: a machine-learning model, built on more than twenty years of results and calibrated to within 0.07 of a percentage point across 836,398 walk-forward predictions, that turns everything we know about a runner into a single calibrated chance of winning. Across our database the top three horses on TPR win approximately 55% of all races and the top four account for around 67%. Everything below is analysis, not advice.
What the numbers mean
- TPR (the win probability). Each horse’s calibrated chance of winning, as a percentage. In a wide-open race the leading few may be split by a point or two; in a strong one the best can stand clear.
- Speed figures. The standalone numbers you will see, such as a 173 or a 195. Each is a class and weight-adjusted rating of how fast a horse ran on the day, so figures from different tracks and grades compare directly. Higher is faster, and a horse running close to its best is the one to respect.
- Conditions form. How well a horse has performed on today’s going, over today’s trip and at this track. A high TPR backed by strong conditions form is a sturdier case than one without.
- Pace and run-style. Whether a horse leads, races handily or comes from behind, and how fast the race is likely to be run overall. A race full of front-runners often sets up for closers; a steadily-run one rewards those handy to the lead.
- Draw and course bias. What tens of thousands of past Ascot runs tell us about which stalls and which run-styles over- or under-perform on this ground. We quote these as real figures, for example a run-style that has historically won 28% less often than the market expected, rather than leaning on folklore.
Convergence Analysis
Where multiple independent data points, the TPR rating, recent speed ratings, trip and going profile, course form, trainer momentum, and historical pace-and-draw fit, all point to the same horse, we call that convergence. It is the foundation of everything we do. A horse can top the TPR rating, but if they have never been tested at today’s trip and the trainer’s strike rate has halved in the last month, the convergence is weak. When everything aligns, the signal is strong. We will show you exactly where that happens, race by race.
Let’s get into the card.
GAIN Equine Nutrition Irish EBF Fillies Maiden
7F | GOOD | 14 RUNNERS | MAIDEN (TWO-YEAR-OLD FILLIES)
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
The card opens with a seven-furlong maiden for two-year-old fillies, fourteen going to post on good ground. Most of these have run once or not at all, so it is a puzzle of limited form and pedigree, with the draw only a minor factor over the trip. Our TPR, the machine-learning rating behind everything we do, which turns a runner’s whole profile into one calibrated chance of winning, cannot split the front pair: LIVENKA and ALPHA share top billing at 41.5% apiece, clear of IBELIEVEICANFLY at 29.3%, ALPINE WEDDING at 20.0% and EXCEPTIONALLY at 17.5%, with the rest of the field bunched from 8% down.
LIVENKA is the one who has already shown the most on the track. G M Lyons’ filly ran a class-adjusted speed figure of 123 on her debut, our measure of how fast she ran with an adjustment for the class of race so figures compare like for like, and that is comfortably the best actual figure any of these has posted, the next best being a 53. She also tops our going model, our read of how well a profile suits today’s ground, and she drops 15 points in class on our measure, having taken on tougher company first time. She is held up to come with a run, and Colin Keane rides. A filly who has run to that figure already, against this many unexposed rivals, is the soundest anchor in a race like this.
ALPHA is the pedigree and stable answer, and the obvious improver. Aidan O’Brien’s filly is out of the brilliant Alpha Centauri, by Sea The Stars, about as good a page as you will find in a maiden, and her dam-progeny rating of 100, our measure of how a mare’s foals have performed, underlines the family. Crucially Ryan Moore takes the ride, usually the clearest sign of the yard’s first string. Her debut figure of 53 is modest, but O’Brien fillies from a family like this routinely come on a great deal for the experience, and with that booking she is the one most likely to overhaul Livenka if she steps forward as expected.
The dangers are headed by the second and third O’Brien-bred types. IBELIEVEICANFLY is a Frankel filly with a strong juvenile-sire rating of 92, the second of the yard’s runners, a front-runner who showed a little on debut and is bred to do much more, with Wayne Lordan booked. EXCEPTIONALLY is the unraced newcomer to respect, by the top sire Into Mischief and out of the Group 1 winner Together Forever. ALPINE WEDDING sets a good gallop for Paddy Twomey and tops nothing but has the run-style to make her presence felt, while of the unraced ENDLESS NIGHT (by St Mark’s Basilica for the J A Stack yard) and the trio of well-bred Donnacha O’Brien fillies, SOCIAL CIRCLE and ISLE OF CAPRI by Wootton Bassett among them, any could step forward on debut. With so many lightly-raced types it is a race to treat with a little caution.
Where the data lands: LIVENKA, the filly who has already run to comfortably the best figure in the race and handles the ground, with ALPHA, the beautifully bred O’Brien filly with Ryan Moore booked and clear improvement to come. The Frankel filly IBELIEVEICANFLY and the unraced EXCEPTIONALLY head a deep cast of dangers.
The full field
Dubai Duty Free Rockingham Handicap
5F | GOOD | 17 RUNNERS | PREMIER HANDICAP
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
The Rockingham is a competitive five-furlong sprint handicap, seventeen going to post on good ground, and a typically tricky puzzle. In a big-field sprint the draw and run-style matter, and we read the Curragh draw qualitatively here rather than lean on folklore. Our TPR spreads the race right out, LIKEDBYMIKE its narrow top at 12.0%, from TOCA MADERA at 11.7%, GAZELLE DOR at 10.3% and RED EVOLUTION at 10.3%, with a cluster of seven more inside 7.4%. The model’s leader is one to oppose, though: LIKEDBYMIKE rates second-bottom of the field on our going model for today’s quick ground and is running 55 points below his peak on our trend measure, which sets a horse’s current level against its career best, so the model is leaning on an old back figure.
TOCA MADERA is the standout on the clock. David O’Meara’s gelding ran a 178 last time, the best recent figure in the race, our class-adjusted measure of how fast he ran, is bang at his peak on our trend measure, and is a genuine front-runner, the profile that wins five-furlong sprints more often than any other. He is the rare British raider in a home-trained field, comes from a yard in good order, and Daniel Tudhope, an outstanding sprint jockey, rides. The best blend of current form and pace in the race.
GAZELLE DOR is the progressive one drawn on the right side. M C Grassick’s filly ran a 172 last time, the second-best recent figure of these, is at her peak, and is clearly going the right way, her handicap mark on a rising trajectory as she improves, having last won off a mark of 83 and now rated 97. She handles the ground well, fifth on our going model, and is drawn high in fifteen, on what should be a favoured part of the track in a big field. Wayne Lordan rides. A filly this obviously on the upgrade is exactly the type to chance in a race like this.
The chief dangers are the conditions horses the model under-rates. KERDOS is the standout of them: he tops both our going model and our track model, our reads of how a profile fits today’s ground and the Curragh specifically, the best course-and-conditions profile in the race, is near his peak and drawn high in seventeen. STAG NIGHT is a front-runner who tops our distance model and sits second on both going and track, an eight-year-old still firing for Willie McCreery. RED EVOLUTION is fourth on the going model and races prominently, while EROSANDPSYCHE rates highly on every conditions model and is consistent, and DARK ACE owns big back figures of 192 and 164 and is on a rising mark, even if he does his running from off the pace, which the sprint bias marks down.
As ever in a seventeen-runner sprint handicap there is luck in running to find, so treat the whole leg with caution. Where the data lands: TOCA MADERA, the front-running 178 horse at his peak, with GAZELLE DOR, the progressive, well-drawn filly with the second-best figure. KERDOS, the going-and-track-model topper, is the chief danger, with the model-top LIKEDBYMIKE one to take on on today’s ground.
The full field
Jebel Ali Dash Stakes
6F | GOOD | 10 RUNNERS | LISTED
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
The Dash Stakes is a Listed sprint over six furlongs, ten going to post on good ground, with the draw only a minor factor at this field size. For once the model is emphatic at the head. Our TPR makes SILK BRAID a clear top at 41.5%, from TANGO FLARE at 20.0%, with BODHI BEAR and FREGADA next at 17.5% and BIG GOSSEY at 14.8%. This is a race with real strength in depth on the clock, though, with five of these owning a recent or back figure of 161 or higher.
SILK BRAID is the progressive one the model loves. G M Lyons’ filly has had just two starts but ran a 198 last time, a big class-adjusted figure, our measure of how fast she ran adjusted for the class of race, and she tops our distance model for the trip while sitting right at her peak on our trend measure. A lightly-raced three-year-old improving at this rate, and still open to a good deal more, is the type that keeps progressing through this kind of company, and stepping up to Listed level should not stop her. Colin Keane rides.
TANGO FLARE is the seasoned alternative in fine form. Patrick Foley’s seven-year-old gelding ran a 179 last time, is at his peak, and rates strongly across all three of our conditions models, sitting second on the going model, third on the track model and fifth on the distance model, our reads of how well a profile suits today’s ground, this course and the trip. He is the most battle-hardened of the principals and Luke McAteer rides. A veteran sprinter firing on every conditions measure is a thoroughly sound second.
The dangers are led by two more big-figure types. BIG GOSSEY, a nine-year-old, ran a 200 last time, the single highest recent figure in the race, carries the top official rating of 107 and is at his peak, racing prominently for Charles O’Brien. BODHI BEAR is the consistency-and-pace angle, rock-solid on figures of 157, 156 and 145, tops our going model for the ground and is at his peak, a prominent type for the J A Stack yard. FREGADA tops our track model and owns a 173 back figure, though she needs to bounce back from a quiet last run, while CALIFORNIA DREAMER is consistent and prominent at her peak, and the lightly-raced TAHCAWIN sits second on our distance model. LITTLE QUEENIE is the lone front-runner of note, with a recent 161 to her name.
Where the data lands: SILK BRAID, the progressive filly with the 198 who tops our distance model, with TANGO FLARE, the in-form veteran who handles every one of today’s conditions. BIG GOSSEY and his 200, and the consistent BODHI BEAR, head a genuinely deep cast of dangers.
The full field
Dubai Duty Free Derby Festival Handicap
1M | GOOD | 13 RUNNERS | PREMIER HANDICAP
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
The Derby Festival Handicap is a competitive mile handicap, thirteen going to post on good ground. Our TPR makes ZARATHOS its top at 22.2%, from PLAYIN COOL at 15.3%, PRETTY OMAGH GIRL at 13.4% and PERRY MASON at 9.8%, the rest a fair way back. It is a race with several lightly-raced, progressive types against more exposed rivals dropping in class, so the trick is sorting the genuine improvers from the bounce-back hopefuls.
ZARATHOS is the model’s top and a progressive sort going the right way. Dylan Cunha’s gelding is near his peak on our trend measure, which sets a horse’s current level against its career best, races prominently so should secure a good position, handles the ground on our going model, and pairs a 142 last time with a 158 back figure. The one tax is a rising handicap mark, the usual price of improvement, but a horse this clearly on the up for a sharp yard, with Dylan Browne McMonagle booked, is the soundest anchor in the race.
PLAYIN COOL is the one with the best recent figure of all. John James Feane’s lightly-raced gelding ran a 157 last time, the best in the field on our class-adjusted measure, is at his peak, races on the pace and drops five points in class today, having had just six starts so should still have more to give. He sits second on our going model, so the ground is no concern. The honest caveat is the trip: our distance model rates him only tenth, so there is a genuine question over whether the mile suits, but on raw current form he is firing, and Ronan Whelan rides.
PERRY MASON is the chief danger and the value bounce-back, topping our going model with a big 195 back figure and dropping seven in class, for a Maurice Ahern yard whose one-month form is well up on its year. LORD MASSUSUS tops our distance model and is at his peak, a prominent type well treated on old form, while STATE ACTOR is the wildcard, owning a huge 199 back figure and the best course form in the race with Colin Keane booked, though he must recover from a poor last run that leaves him well below his peak. PRETTY OMAGH GIRL is the lightly-raced improver of the bunch, at her peak and prominent for A Oliver, and FAR FROM DANDY, a consistent type who handles the ground, represents the in-form Stephen Thorne yard.
Where the data lands: ZARATHOS, the progressive, prominent model-top going the right way, with PLAYIN COOL, the best recent figure in the race if the mile suits him. PERRY MASON, the going-model topper dropping in class, heads a competitive cast of dangers.
The full field
Dubai Duty Free International Stakes
1M2F | GOOD TO FIRM | 8 RUNNERS | GROUP 3
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
The International Stakes is a Group 3 over a mile and a quarter, eight going to post on good to firm, a small but classy field where class and the clock decide, not the draw. Our TPR ties two at the top, TRUSTYOURINSTINCT and CROWN OF OAKS at 23.4%, from PURVIEW and HOTAZHELL at 20.0%, then ISAAC NEWTON at 17.2%. There is a wrinkle worth seeing, though: the model’s joint-top pair both lean on big back figures yet ran below par last time, so the horse actually firing sits a fraction below them on the model.
PURVIEW is the class horse in form, and the one we side with. Dermot Weld’s lightly-raced colt ran a 235 last time, the highest recent figure in the race by a clear margin, our class-adjusted measure of how fast he ran, is at his peak on our trend measure, carries the top official rating of 118 and tops our track model for the Curragh. Colin Keane rides. The one mild query is the trip, where our distance model rates him fifth, but with only five career runs he is open to more, and his class and current form are a cut above anything else here.
CROWN OF OAKS is the pace-and-ground angle, and a dangerous one in a small field. William Haggas’ gelding is a front-runner who tops our going model for the good to firm, the surface he wants, with a big 218 back figure to his name and the booking of Tom Marquand. He does need to bounce back to his best after a quieter run last time, which is why the model has him only joint-top rather than clear, but a front-runner able to dictate on ground he relishes takes plenty of catching.
TRUSTYOURINSTINCT is the model’s other joint-top, topping our distance model with 214 and 204 back figures and the second-best course form in the race, but that dismal last run leaves him 142 below his peak, so he is a pure bounce-back for Joseph O’Brien. HOTAZHELL is arguably the strongest of the dangers and should not be underestimated: a front-runner who sits second on the going model and the distance model with a 190 back figure, at the trip and on the ground he wants, for the Harrington yard. ISAAC NEWTON is the three-year-old of the race, taking on his elders for Aidan O’Brien with Ryan Moore booked and open to plenty more, while SINDRIA owns a huge back figure of her own but has to rediscover it.
This is a proper Group 3 and a measure of caution is sensible, but the data points a clear way. Where the data lands: PURVIEW, the in-form, top-rated class horse who tops our track model, with CROWN OF OAKS, the front-running going-model topper. The front-running HOTAZHELL and the bounce-back TRUSTYOURINSTINCT head the dangers.
The full field
Dubai Duty Free Celebration Stakes
1M | GOOD TO FIRM | 7 RUNNERS | LISTED
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
The Celebration Stakes closes the Placepot, a Listed mile with seven going to post on good to firm. Our TPR makes ACCREDITED its top at 35.9%, from ALCANTOR at 29.3%, COWARDOFTHECOUNTY at 23.4% and TOKENOMICS at 15.3%. The market leader is one to be wary of, though: ACCREDITED is an O’Brien three-year-old with Ryan Moore booked, and the model loves the profile, yet the figures do not back it. He ran a 27 last time, sits 70 below his peak on our trend measure, steps up 12 points in class today and is rated last of all on our distance model, so for all that the Moore booking demands respect, the form says take him on.
ALCANTOR is the class drop, and the strongest profile in the race. Joseph O’Brien’s lightly-raced five-year-old carries the top official rating of 110, tops our distance model for the mile, and eases a full ten points in class on our measure into Listed company, with a 150 back figure and a prominent style that should put him in the right place. He was below his peak last time, the one caveat to weigh, but the combination of the best official rating and the biggest drop in class is the soundest case here, and Dylan Browne McMonagle rides.
TOKENOMICS is the one our data flags for value, and a strong second. David Marnane’s gelding ran a 161 last time, the best recent figure in the race, our class-adjusted measure of how fast he ran, tops our track model for the Curragh, is at his peak and races prominently, so the pace should be no issue. Luke McAteer rides. The model rates him only fourth, which is exactly the kind of overlooked profile our system is built to surface, a horse running to the best recent figure who handles this track better than any of them.
Beyond the market leader, the genuine dangers are clear. COWARDOFTHECOUNTY is at his peak and sits second on both our going and track models, a consistent type with a 126 last time for Joseph O’Brien, the one mild doubt being whether he fully sees out the mile. DUCKADILLY is the outsider with a live conditions profile, topping our going model emphatically with a figure of 180, second on the distance model and dropping seven in class, though she races from off the pace and was below her peak last time. ZODIAC BEAR is a consistent sort for the J P Murtagh yard, with the front-running SPICY MARGARITA the likely pacemaker.
Where the data lands: ALCANTOR, the class-dropping, distance-model-topping one with the top official rating, and TOKENOMICS, the track-model topper running to the best recent figure. COWARDOFTHECOUNTY heads the dangers, and the market-fancied ACCREDITED is one to take on for all the Moore booking.
The full field
Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1)
1M4F | GOOD TO FIRM | 8 RUNNERS | GROUP 1 · THE FEATURE, OUTSIDE THE PLACEPOT
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby is the showpiece, a Group 1 over a mile and a half with eight three-year-old colts going to post on good to firm, a classic decided on class and stamina rather than the draw. Aidan O’Brien runs four. Our TPR makes BENVENUTO CELLINI its clear top at 29.3%, from RAAHEEB at 17.2% and SHAIHAAN and BUNYOLA BAY at 14.8%.
BENVENUTO CELLINI is the best horse in this race on his proper form, and the data shows why. His last figure, a 200, came when winning at Chester, his prep for the Epsom Derby, and he is beautifully bred for this test, by Frankel out of the brilliant Newspaperofrecord, whose dam-progeny rating of 145 is the best in the field, our measure of how a mare’s foals have performed on the track. He is at his peak on our trend measure and eases seven points in class today. Ryan Moore takes the ride, the clearest sign of the first string in O’Brien’s four-strong team.
A word of honesty about Epsom, and a warning. You will not find a figure for his Derby run in our data, because although he completed the race, well beaten, he was controversially declared a non-runner afterwards: his hind leg was caught in the stall as the gates opened. His trainer has acknowledged this is a habit of the horse, so there is a genuine risk it happens again at the start, and that has to be weighed. But the run itself is readily forgivable. That Derby was won by today’s rival CHRISTMAS DAY, on ground that suited the winner and was against Benvenuto Cellini, and a return to a sounder surface here swings things firmly back his way.
RAAHEEB is the unexposed improver to fear. Owen Burrows’ colt has had just two career runs, ran a 175 back figure and sits near his peak, for a yard in red-hot form. A lightly-raced colt with that little mileage and clear upside is the classic Derby type, and Rossa Ryan rides one who could still be a fair bit better than he has shown.
The chief dangers come from behind the pair. SHAIHAAN owns the single highest recent figure in the race, a 230, and is a front-runner who can dictate, though his official rating sits well below the principals, so that figure may flatter him. CHRISTMAS DAY carries the top official rating of 118 and tops our distance model, a proven stayer and the Epsom Derby winner, but the quick ground here is against him, the mirror image of the swing that helps Benvenuto Cellini. JAMES J BRADDOCK, who tops our track model, is the quiet one of the O’Brien team.
Where the data lands: BENVENUTO CELLINI, clearly the best horse in the race on his proper ratings and suited by the return to a sounder surface, with the one warning that he can be slow to leave the stalls. RAAHEEB is the unexposed improver most likely to trouble him, with the Epsom winner CHRISTMAS DAY the chief danger if the ground proves no inconvenience.
The full field
Tulfarris Maddenstown Handicap
1M1F | GOOD TO FIRM | 18 RUNNERS | PREMIER HANDICAP · OUTSIDE THE PLACEPOT
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
The Maddenstown is a big-field three-year-old handicap over nine furlongs, eighteen going to post on good to firm, the kind of competitive heat that takes plenty of unpicking. Our TPR makes ANTIGUA its top at 29.3%, from HOWSTHEBAI at 21.2% and a cluster of three including ROLLTIGHT at 14.8%, with a long tail behind. In a field this size the draw and the run of the race matter, and with several of these keen to get forward the early pace should be strong, so a horse who can secure an early position without doing too much in front holds a clear edge.
ANTIGUA is the model’s top and the soundest profile. Aidan O’Brien’s colt ran a 174 last time, our class-adjusted measure of how fast he ran, is at his peak on our trend measure, and is a front-runner who should get first run from a low draw in stall two, a real asset in an eighteen-runner handicap. Ryan Moore rides. In a competitive heat, an in-form O’Brien front-runner with Moore booked and the draw to use his speed is the right place to start.
ROLLTIGHT is the most exciting figure in the race. J P Murtagh’s gelding ran a 221 last time, comfortably the highest figure of these, is at his peak and has had just three career runs, so he may be some way ahead of his handicap mark, the profile that springs these big handicaps. The clear caveat is the draw, stall eighteen of eighteen, a real concern in a field this size, but a horse with that much apparent superiority can overcome it, and Ben Coen rides. The upside is worth the risk.
The dangers are plentiful in a race like this. KING OF EARTH is the standout of them, a lightly-raced William Haggas colt at his peak with a 154 last time, a fair draw in stall ten and Tom Marquand booked, the type to keep on improving. HOWSTHEBAI is the model’s second, consistent on figures of 117 and 121, near his peak, prominent and drawn low for Lyons and Keane, while LISTENTODWINDBLOW tops our distance model and is near his peak for Joseph O’Brien. SATOYAMA owns a big 197 back figure and a high official rating if he can find it again, and of the others SANCTIJUDE holds a useful back figure and BOBBY MCGEE is a high-drawn front-runner who could go forward early.
As always in an eighteen-runner handicap there is luck in running to account for, so treat it accordingly. Where the data lands: ANTIGUA, the at-peak O’Brien front-runner with Moore up and the draw to use, with ROLLTIGHT, the 221 horse who may be thrown in, draw permitting. KING OF EARTH and the consistent HOWSTHEBAI head the dangers.
The full field
Irish EBF Ragusa Handicap
1M4F | GOOD TO FIRM | 14 RUNNERS | PREMIER HANDICAP · OUTSIDE THE PLACEPOT
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
The Ragusa Handicap closes the card, a staying handicap over a mile and a half with fourteen going to post on good to firm, the draw a non-factor at the trip. It is competitive on the clock, with three of these sharing a recent figure of 181. Our TPR makes OBSCENITY its top at 17.5%, from IN MY TEENS at 13.4%, DAWN RISING at 9.0% and THIS SONGISFORYOU at 8.3%, with CLOUD SEEKER among a group on 8.2%.
OBSCENITY is the model’s top and the most rounded profile in the race. Joseph O’Brien’s gelding is at his peak on our trend measure, ran a 181 last time, tops our track model for the Curragh and sits second on the distance model, our reads of how a profile fits this course and this trip, races prominently and is still on the upgrade on our trajectory measure. Dylan Browne McMonagle rides. A horse running to a strong figure, proven over course and trip and still improving, is the soundest anchor in a competitive staying handicap.
CLOUD SEEKER is the class-dropping stayer worth chancing. Andrew Slattery’s gelding tops our distance model for the mile and a half, eases a full eleven points in class on our measure, the biggest drop in the race, and owns a big 198 back figure with strong course form. The one mild caveat is the quick ground, where his figures are a shade lower, but a horse dropping this far in class and proven at the trip is exactly the value the model under-rates at joint-fifth, and he is the type these staying handicaps are won by.
IN MY TEENS is the chief danger, a filly at her peak with a 181 last time, a high official rating and a rising mark for the in-form Gavin Cromwell yard, the one question being whether our distance model is right to doubt that she fully stays this far. RETRACEMENT also ran a 181, is near his peak with strong course form and a rising mark for the Murtagh yard, and THIS SONGISFORYOU is at his peak with a 161 and Colin Keane booked. DAWN RISING drops nine in class and brings a 164 back figure for Joseph O’Brien, while FACTUAL FACT is a front-runner near his peak who sits third on the distance model for Henry De Bromhead, the type to make running and steal a staying race. MARAZION is another who will bowl along in front, and NAVY WATERS is on a rising mark for the Willie McCreery yard.
Where the data lands: OBSCENITY, the at-peak, track-model-topping progressive proven over course and trip, with CLOUD SEEKER, the class-dropping distance-model topper. IN MY TEENS heads the dangers if she stays, with RETRACEMENT and the front-running FACTUAL FACT next.
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