Introduction
Classics weekend opens at the Curragh, and Saturday brings the Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas, the first colts’ classic of the Irish Flat calendar. Going is reported Good to Yielding, and the data has plenty to say. This is our race-by-race breakdown of Irish 2,000 Guineas Day at the Curragh, produced in partnership with the Tote. For each of the nine races, we lay out what the EquiAnalytix model sees, where the data aligns with the market, and where it disagrees. The full nine-race card forms part of Tote World Pool, and the Tote Placepot runs across the first six races.
How We Approach The Data
Our analysis is built around the TPR (Total Performance Rating), a machine learning-derived metric that combines a horse’s speed figures, going preferences, distance profile, track record, trainer momentum, pace dynamics, class profile, form trajectory and handicap-mark intelligence into a single calibrated probability score. Across 88,084 walk-forward tested races, V2’s top four ranked horses contain the winner 73% of the time. The top pick wins between 24.7% and 30.1% of all races depending on the code.
The supporting metrics you will see throughout:
- T-1 through T-5: Class-adjusted speed figures from the last five runs. T-1 is the most recent and carries the most weight. Context matters: a T-1 earned in a Newbury Group race is a different proposition to one posted in a Class 5 Wolverhampton handicap.
- DistTPR: Average performance at today’s race distance. Important across this card, where six-furlong sprinters and twelve-furlong stayers are both in action and proven trip form is a strong filter.
- GoingTPR: Performance on the relevant going. With Good ground in the forecast, this metric highlights which runners have a track record on a quick to good surface, and which are stepping into less proven territory.
- Trainer Momentum: Comparing a trainer’s recent 1-month strike rate against their 12-month baseline. By mid-May the Flat campaign is in full swing, and the yards arriving at Newbury in form are often the ones plundering the spring Group races. Others are still finding their level.
Convergence Analysis
Where multiple independent data points, TPR ranking, recent speed figures, distance profile, going suitability, and trainer form, all point to the same horse, we call that convergence. It is the foundation of everything we do. A horse can top the TPR rankings, but if they have never been tested at today’s trip and the trainer’s strike rate has halved in the last month, the convergence is weak. When everything aligns, the signal is strong. We will show you exactly where that happens, race by race.
Let’s get into the card.
Race 1: 1:20 Tally Ho Stud Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden
6f | Good To Yielding | 8 runners
Race Analysis
Eight two-year-old colts and geldings line up for the six-furlong opener on Good to Yielding ground, and the analytical centre of gravity is firmly Coolmore: Aidan O’Brien saddles three, Joseph O’Brien one. SERGEI DIAGHILEV tops the TPR V2 standings at a calibrated probability of 62.5%, 21 points clear of stable companion BOLD COMMANDER on 41.5%. Folsom Blues and South Dakota share third on 29.3%, with the remaining four runners all reading at single-digit probabilities.
Seven of the eight runners are first-time starters. Only Dhikola has had a previous outing (finished seventh). That removes T-1 through T-5 from the analysis. The model’s rating in this kind of race is anchored to sire juvenile profile, trainer 1-month form versus 12-month baseline, jockey booking, and the trainer-jockey strike rate over the past year. The question is not which horse has run the fastest time, because none have. It is which horse the data ranks highest on pedigree and stable signal, and on every one of those measures the answer lines up.
SERGEI DIAGHILEV is the strongest reading on each variable. His sire Wootton Bassett tops the field on juvenile TPR at 90, six points clear of the next-best (Blue Point 84) and well above the non-O’Brien sires (Coulsty 69, Kodiac 71, Ardad 70, Invincible Army 65). The damsire is Galileo. Aidan O’Brien’s yard runs at a 22% strike rate over the past 12 months, with a 1-month TPR of 122 against a 12-month baseline of 104, an 18-point uptick that flags the stable hitting form on the Flat. Ryan Moore rides at a 12-month TPR of 114, and the trainer-jockey combination TPR of 118 is the highest paired figure in the race. When three Ballydoyle runners line up in a debut maiden and the yard’s first-choice jockey takes one, that is the single loudest piece of information on the card.
BOLD COMMANDER is the supporting call on the same yard, a different jockey, and the second-best juvenile sire in the race. Wayne Lordan rides at a 12-month TPR of 93 and a 1-month TPR of 113, a 20-point momentum lift that is the strongest jockey form swing in the field. The sire No Nay Never posts a juvenile TPR of 82, second-best in the race, and the trainer-jockey combination TPR of 107 sits comfortably second to Sergei Diaghilev. A V2 calibrated probability of 41.5% gives the model genuine two-horse intent at the head of the race.
The other Coolmore-aligned runner with claims is FOLSOM BLUES for Joseph O’Brien. Blue Point posts the field’s best sire distance TPR at 92, his juvenile rating of 84 is third-best, and Dylan Browne McMonagle (12-month TPR 95) pairs with the trainer at a combined 103. South Dakota carries the same Aidan O’Brien yard tag as the front two but rides Jack Cleary, an apprentice claiming five pounds; the trainer-jockey combination TPR collapses to 76, the lowest of the three Ballydoyle runners and a meaningful “yard not pushing the button” signal. The remaining four runners all carry sire juvenile TPRs below 72 and rate at single-digit V2 probabilities; each would need the race to fall apart at the front to factor.
The convergence sits with SERGEI DIAGHILEV on the highest sire juvenile rating in the race, the yard’s first-choice jockey, the strongest 12-month trainer-jockey strike, and the biggest gap from rank 1 to rank 2 on the card. BOLD COMMANDER is the supporting call on the same yard, the second-best juvenile sire signal, and the most in-form jockey by 1-month momentum.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Sergei Diaghilev
Bold Commander
Race 2: 1:55 Sherry FitzGerald Country Homes Orby Stakes (Listed Race)
12f | Good To Yielding | 10 runners | Class 1 | Listed
Race Analysis
The Curragh’s twelve-furlong Listed comes off a strong pace forecast. Race pace forecast registers 5, and three runners line up with confirmed front-running styles. That changes how the figures should be read: in a paceful 12f on yielding ground, the runner with the best confirmed trip form and a tracking pace role gets the cleanest setup. The TPR V2 standings have AROUET on top at 29.3% with TRUSTYOURINSTINCT second on 20.0%, ahead of Emit (14.0%), Cristal Clere and Snapretend (joint 13.4%).
Three front-runners with elite pace scores press the early lead: Cristal Clere (3.93) and Snapretend (3.93) tied on the highest pace score in the race, plus Trustyourinstinct (3.60). Four prominent stalkers follow: Lady Lilac (3.47), Emit (3.20), Purview (2.93) and AROUET (2.87). Only Puppet Master (2.40) and Chally Chute (2.27) sit beyond the prominent group. With three pressers and a forecast 5 pace, the model is reading a tempo that hands prominent-tracking types the setup. AROUET is sitting exactly there.
AROUET tops the model on a wider convergence than the V2 percentage suggests. His DistTPR of 156 is the best confirmed twelve-furlong speed figure of any quality in the race. T-1 of 156 is his most recent figure, set just 13 days ago on the same trainer-jockey combination running today. ClassDelta of +20 is the biggest class step-up in the field; ClassCeiling of 125 puts today’s 122 inside his upper range. Cheekpieces are applied first time. The trainer signal is the strongest in the race: Paddy Twomey runs at a 24% strike rate over the past 12 months, with a 1-month TPR of 139 against a 12-month baseline of 117, a 22-point momentum lift that leads the field. The trainer-jockey combination TPR with W J Lee sits at 122, the highest paired figure in the race. The one flag is that he has no recorded GoingTPR for the surface; the DistTPR carries the rating.
TRUSTYOURINSTINCT is the supporting call on a different argument: on every absolute conditions measure, he is the best horse in the race. GoingTPR of 171, DistTPR of 201, TrackTPR of 222. All three are clear of the field by daylight. ClassCeiling of 135 is joint-highest with Emit. Today’s class estimate of 122 sits seven points below his recent 128-class average, the only meaningful class drop in the field. His T-1 of 204, run 34 days ago, sits inside his career range; the T-2 of 73 is the obvious outlier and the cause of his FormStdDev of 55, the highest in the field. The model penalises that variance heavily, which is what suppresses the V2 number to 20.0% despite the class profile. The Listed step-down with Declan McDonogh reads as positive yard intent on a runner with Group-class ceiling.
Three credible threats sit in the model’s middle ground. EMIT posts the best GoingTPR (190) in the race, a fresh T-1 of 190 just 28 days ago, and the same trainer-jockey combination TPR (122) as Arouet on Joseph O’Brien’s combination with Ronan Whelan. RecentTrend of +45 is the sharpest improver figure on the card. Tongue-tie remains. Of all the alternative calls, this is the most credible. SNAPRETEND brings the lowest FormStdDev in the race (21) and a track-best 170, but front-runner duty against two other 3.93 pace-score rivals is a hard ask on yielding. CRISTAL CLERE has a career T-1 of 233 buried in the form, but the trainer’s 12-month strike rate is 3%, the yard sits on a 12-point 1-month momentum slide, and a front-runner role in a paceful race is the wrong setup. LADY LILAC brings a RecentTrend of +50 and a recent T-1 of 205. PURVIEW with Dermot Weld and Colin Keane is the “stable cunning” option, but a 235-day absence, a class ceiling of 120, and no DistTPR figure at this trip leave him outside the top group. NYRA is the curious one: Joseph O’Brien’s first-choice jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle takes the ride, but with no career data on file the model defaults the rating to TPR 6.
The convergence sits with AROUET on the best confirmed 12f figure in the race, the most in-form trainer on the card, the strongest 12-month trainer-jockey strike, a class step-up that the yard’s recent form supports, and a prominent pace role into a fast gallop. TRUSTYOURINSTINCT is the supporting call on the best absolute conditions form in the field, a meaningful class drop, and a calibrated probability suppressed by form variance rather than ceiling.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Arouet
Trustyourinstinct
Race 3: 14:30 Keadeen Hotel Handicap (Premier Handicap)
10f | Good To Yielding | 21 runners
Race Analysis
The Curragh’s first Premier Handicap of the day is a 21-runner test over 10 furlongs on Good to Yielding ground. The TPR V2 standings open unusually tight: 13.1 down to 12.0, then a joint 10.3, with no runner enjoying a clear edge. Race pace forecast registers 4 (moderate), and every runner shares the same today class estimate of 115. Paddy Twomey saturates the model with three runners in the top six: PERFECT YOUR CRAFT, DERESSA and Iowa City. The yard’s jockey hierarchy reads cleanly: Colin Keane on Deressa, W J Lee on Perfect Your Craft, apprentice Nicola Burns (5) on Iowa City.
Cloud Seeker (3.73), Flame Of Forest (3.60) and PERFECT YOUR CRAFT (3.53) line up as the three front-runners. Railwayview Lady (3.40) is the next prominent type, with Playin Cool (2.71), Iron Fist (2.67), DERESSA (2.60) and Perry Mason (2.80) tracking from prominent positions. Five runners declare hold-up styles. With three front-runners and a forecast 4 pace, the gallop should be honest without being suicidal. In a 21-runner 10f handicap on yielding, prominent stalkers with strong distance form historically benefit.
PERFECT YOUR CRAFT is the cleanest reading on the raw data in this race. Her T-1 of 120, T-2 of 138, T-3 of 124 and T-4 of 154 mark a horse running consistently above today’s 115 class. FormStdDev of 8 makes her the most consistent of the leading group, with only the outsider Perry Mason (FormStdDev 3) reading tighter across the whole field. GoingTPR of 139 ranks behind only Retracement’s 151 among runners with confirmed Good-to-Yielding figures. DistTPR of 116 sits inside the top half of the field at the trip. OR delta of +4 above last win with trajectory “Rising” reads as continued improvement. The trainer signal is the same that delivered Arouet in the previous race: Paddy Twomey at a 24% strike rate over the past 12 months, with a 1-month TPR of 139 against a 12-month baseline of 117, a 22-point momentum lift. The trainer-jockey combination TPR with W J Lee sits at 122, second-highest in the race. She brings a 196-day absence and lines up with a front-running role into a moderate pace, which on a flat 10f track should suit. The model rates her at V2 12.0% and rank 2; the editorial read is that the supporting metrics are stronger than V2 suggests.
DERESSA is the model’s V2 number one at 13.1%, marginally ahead, and the case for her is built on yard intent rather than figures. Paddy Twomey has put Colin Keane up: a top-tier freelance rider rather than the yard’s regular pilot. The trainer-jockey combination TPR of 127 is the highest paired figure in the entire race. First-time cheekpieces are applied. Class drops sharply from a recent 125-class average to today’s 115, a 10-point easing. The supporting figures are weaker: T-1 of 66, GoingTPR 86, no recorded DistTPR at 10f, and 223 days off. The argument for her sits in three signals: jockey booking, headgear change, and class drop, rather than the form line.
The most credible threat outside the top two is APERCU. FormStdDev of 9 places him among the three most consistent runners on the card. GoingTPR 124, DistTPR 154 (second-best in the race), TrackTPR 150 (third-best). T-1 126, T-2 117, T-3 139, T-4 176, consistent ratings well above today’s 115 class. OR exactly at his last winning mark (“Near Winning Mark”), 18 days off a recent run, blinkers applied, ClassDelta of -10. RETRACEMENT carries the field’s best track form profile: GoingTPR 151, DistTPR 147, TrackTPR 154, top three on every conditions metric. Ben Coen rides at a 1-month TPR of 101, but the runner has been absent 216 days and runs hold-up at a 1.33 pace score in a field of 21. IN MY TEENS posts a uniquely flat profile: GoingTPR, DistTPR and TrackTPR all reading 111. Gavin Cromwell’s yard runs at +12 momentum (12-month 75, 1-month 87). Hood applied. IRON FIST owns the field’s best DistTPR at 161, OR delta of +8 above last win and a rising trajectory.
The convergence sits with PERFECT YOUR CRAFT on the best form consistency in the leading group, the strongest GoingTPR plus DistTPR pairing among runners with confirmed 10f records, a rising OR trajectory, and the second-best trainer-jockey combination signal on the card. DERESSA is the supporting call on yard intent: Colin Keane booking, cheekpieces applied, class drop. The highest trainer-jockey paired figure in the race makes that intent unusually loud.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Perfect Your Craft
Deressa
Race 4: 15:05 Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes (Group 2)
6f | Good To Yielding | 11 runners | Class 1 | Group 2
Race Analysis
The Curragh’s first Group race of the day brings strong cross-channel ambition. Five of the 11 runners arrive from Britain, headlined by Andrew Balding’s Marvelman, Richard and Peter Fahey’s Powerful Glory, William Haggas’s Montassib, K R Burke’s Spycatcher and Clive Cox’s Jamess Delight. The TPR V2 spread at the head reads tight at 29.3, 23.4, 22.2 and 20.0, but the supporting metrics open the picture up considerably.
Race pace forecast registers 4 (moderate) with one confirmed front-runner. Bucanero Fuerte (PaceScore 4.00) is the only listed leader. Four prominent stalkers track from his shoulder: Jamess Delight (3.13), Marvelman (3.13), Big Gossey (3.13) and Comanche Brave (2.53). Three hold-up runners sit at the back: Powerful Glory (1.40), Spycatcher (1.60) and Montassib (1.00). With one undisputed leader, the front role goes uncontested; the prominent group should track without burning energy early.
COMANCHE BRAVE is the model’s pick on the strongest paired figure in the race. Ryan Moore and Donnacha O’Brien combine at a 12-month trainer-jockey TPR of 167, 23 points clear of the next paired figure (Haggas and Loughnane on Montassib at 144). GoingTPR of 153 is the best surface read in the race. OR of 110 is joint-second highest behind Powerful Glory’s 115. ClassCeiling 135 against today’s 125 leaves comfortable margin, with ClassDelta of +2 the only meaningful class number on file. T-1 of 125 sits 27 days behind his recent run; T-2 of 212 in the locker shows the ceiling. FormStdDev of 52 is inflated by that 212 spike; strip the outlier and the form line sits cleanly above today’s grade. RecentTrend of +18 reads as continued improvement.
JAMESS DELIGHT runs on the best Curragh-specific figure of any horse in the field. TrackTPR of 162 leads the race. T-3 of 138 and T-4 of 162 mark Group-class form on file. ClassCeiling 135 sits joint-top with the leading group. Clive Cox is a specialist sprint operator, and Dylan Browne McMonagle takes the ride. ClassDelta of -3 leaves him inside his class window. The drawbacks read just as clean: T-1 of 76 was a weak return, RecentTrend sits at -31, and the McMonagle combination shows no recorded history (TJ TPR 0). The case for him is built on Curragh-specific form and ceiling rather than current shape.
Three runners sit in genuine threat range. BUCANERO FUERTE is the race’s only confirmed front-runner (PaceScore 4.00) and owns the highest single career figure in the field with a T-4 of 240. T-3 of 190 and T-5 of 170 round out an impressive ceiling. FormStdDev of 78 is the highest in the race, with a T-2 of 8 buried in the form line as the volatility flag. Robson De Aguiar’s yard runs at +22 momentum (1-month 105, 12-month 83). MARVELMAN carries the race’s best DistTPR (158) and biggest class drop (ClassDelta -10 from a recent 135-class average). OR of 114, T-2 of 234 in career history. No GoingTPR or TrackTPR on file. Hood remains. POWERFUL GLORY tops the field on OR at 115, posts a T-1 of 177 as his most recent run, and carries a RecentTrend of +62. The catch is a 217-day absence and a hold-up running style (PaceScore 1.40) in a race with only one confirmed leader. CHICAGO CRITIC posts the sharpest improver mark on the card (RecentTrend +76) with T-1 186 and T-2 182 well above today’s class; TrackTPR of just 34 is the flag.
The convergence sits with COMANCHE BRAVE on the loudest trainer-jockey combination signal in the race, the best GoingTPR (153), and a class profile that comfortably contains today’s 125 rating. JAMESS DELIGHT is the supporting call on the best Curragh-specific figure in the field (TrackTPR 162) and a Group-class ceiling, with current form weaker than the surface profile suggests.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Comanche Brave
Jamess Delight
Race 5: 15:40 Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1)
8f | Good To Yielding | 10 runners | Class 1 | Group 1
Race Analysis
The classic of the day. TPR V2 opens unusually decisive for a Group 1: Gstaad’s 22.2% is seven points clear of any other runner, and his conditions profile sweeps every metric in the race. Race pace forecast registers 7, the strongest of any race on the entire Curragh card. With six confirmed front-runners in a 10-runner field, the question is whether the gallop hands the race to the prominent stalkers or holds the leaders together. The setup is built for the runner with the best stamina, class profile and tactical position. The setup is built for Gstaad.
Six runners line up with confirmed front-running pace scores: Bamako Beach (4.00), Neolithic (3.87), Power Blue (3.73), Thesecretadversary (3.67), Alparslan (3.64) and Pacific Avenue (3.60). Four prominent stalkers fall in behind: Gstaad (3.33), Go Just Do It (2.86), Take Charge Star (2.79) and Distant Storm (2.60). Six leaders in a ten-runner Group 1 mile on yielding is a recipe for a fast first half and a finishing race over the last three furlongs.
GSTAAD brings the cleanest conditions sweep on the entire Curragh card. OR of 120 is six points clear of Distant Storm’s 114, the next highest. GoingTPR of 159, DistTPR of 165 and TrackTPR of 159 are all the best readings in the race. FormStdDev of just 4 makes him the most consistent runner across the nine-race card: T-1 of 165, T-2 of 168, T-3 of 159, T-4 of 139, T-5 of 146. Every figure sits between 139 and 168. No volatility, no outliers. ClassDelta of -12 drops him from a 130 class average to today’s 118; ClassCeiling 130 contains today’s grade comfortably. Aidan O’Brien’s yard sits on +18 1-month momentum (104 to 122). Ryan Moore takes the ride and the trainer-jockey combination TPR of 118 is the highest paired figure in the race. 21 days off, five career runs: race-fit and experienced. A prominent role into a forecast 7 pace is exactly where the model wants him.
BAMAKO BEACH is the editorial pick for the supporting call: a high-ceiling, high-variance second rather than a second model preference. The model has him fifth at V2 12.0%, but the argument is built on a single number. T-1 of 206 is the highest most-recent figure in the race, 38 points clear of Gstaad’s 165. M D O’Callaghan has put Colin Keane up: a senior freelance jockey, not the yard’s usual pilot. PaceScore of 4.00 is the most decisive front-running rating in the field. Two career runs on file: the 206 last time out, and a T-2 of just 42 in his only other start. The form sample is tiny and volatile, but the ceiling figure is real. ClassDelta of +8 is a step up rather than down; ClassCeiling reads 120. OR sits at 0 (not yet officially rated after just two runs). The case is the upside of a progressive 3yo with the highest recent figure in a Group 1 paceful race: if the 206 was a true reading of his level, he is the right shape of runner for this setup.
The model’s number two is GO JUST DO IT at V2 15.3%, Joseph O’Brien’s only runner with the yard’s first-choice jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle. T-1 of 137, T-2 of 169, RecentTrend of +26. OR 98 sits well below the leading group, and no recorded GoingTPR or DistTPR at the trip: the case is yard intent rather than raw form. DISTANT STORM brings the cleanest cross-channel form line: Charlie Appleby and Billy Loughnane, OR 114 (joint second-highest in the field), T-1 116, T-2 157, T-3 156. Three consecutive Group-class figures, FormStdDev 19 (the second-most consistent profile after Gstaad). Cheekpieces applied. Trainer at a 31% strike rate, the highest in the field. ClassDelta of -10 mirrors Gstaad’s class drop. NEOLITHIC is Aidan O’Brien’s second string for the pace-and-cut tactic, PaceScore 3.87 confirmed front-runner with T-1 145, T-2 153 and DistTPR 145 (second-best in race). Cheekpieces, RecentTrend +30. PACIFIC AVENUE brings the second-lowest FormStdDev in the race at 5 (T-1 122, T-2 129, T-3 134, T-4 185). Cheekpieces applied, Jamie Spencer rides for Appleby. POWER BLUE holds the highest single career figure in the race with T-3 of 245, but FormStdDev 77 and RecentTrend -74 say the form trajectory has collapsed. ALPARSLAN, the K R Burke raider, brings OR 112 and FormStdDev 17.
The convergence sits with GSTAAD on the cleanest set of conditions metrics on the entire Curragh card: best OR, GoingTPR, DistTPR, TrackTPR and lowest FormStdDev in the race, a class drop of -12, and a prominent role into a forecast 7 pace. BAMAKO BEACH is the editorial supporting call on the highest most-recent figure in the race (T-1 of 206), Colin Keane’s booking, and the upside of a progressive 3yo with a limited form sample. Two deliberately different reads on the race: the model’s headline call by daylight, and a high-ceiling outsider that the ceiling figure alone refuses to dismiss.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Gstaad
Bamako Beach
Race 6: 16:15 Heider Family Stables Gallinule Stakes (Group 3)
10f | Good To Yielding | 9 runners | Class 1 | Group 3
Race Analysis
The Curragh’s Group 3 over ten furlongs is dominated by the O’Brien stables: six of the nine runners come from one of the three brothers’ yards. The model output is decisive at the head. TPR V2 has CAUSEWAY on 29.3%, eight points clear of any other runner, with the supporting metrics making him the cleanest single call. The model’s V2 number two is Drop Dead Gorgeous at 21.2%, the Coolmore-bred lightly raced runner. But the strongest recent figure in the race sits with ZIA ZABEL at TPR rank 3, a T-1 of 185 last time out, 27 points clear of Causeway’s most recent run. The editorial second goes there, on the form line that the model’s variance penalty understates.
Race pace forecast registers 6, a strong gallop with two confirmed front-runners. South Island (PaceScore 3.71) and Zia Zabel (3.67) line up to contest the lead. Six prominent stalkers track behind: Shaihaan (3.29), Alphecca (3.27), Causeway (3.00), Amadeus Mozart (3.00), Mr Vettori (2.73) and Drop Dead Gorgeous (2.44). One hold-up sits at the back (Shosholoza 1.00). With a 6 pace and only two confirmed leaders, prominent tracking horses with strong recent form get the perfect setup.
CAUSEWAY is the model’s V2 leader and a clean read on every supporting metric. Best TrackTPR in the race at 138 (Drop Dead Gorgeous 131 next). OR of 107, top of the rated runners. A genuinely progressive form arc: T-4 of 105, T-3 of 119, T-2 of 136, T-1 of 158. Fifty points of improvement across four runs, with FormStdDev of 16 keeping the spread tight. ClassDelta of -2 leaves him inside his class window; ClassCeiling 125 sits comfortably above today’s 115. Aidan O’Brien’s yard runs +18 1-month momentum (104 to 122). Ryan Moore takes the ride and the trainer-jockey combination TPR of 118 is the highest paired figure in the race. Wootton Bassett ex Heaven Of Heavens (Galileo damsire) reads as a strong middle-distance pedigree. 19 days off, four career runs. A prominent role into a forecast 6 pace is the right tactical position.
ZIA ZABEL is the editorial pick for the supporting call on a single argument: the form line. T-1 of 185 last time out is the highest recent figure in the race, 27 points clear of Causeway’s 158 and 39 points clear of Amadeus Mozart’s 146. RecentTrend of +74 is the sharpest improver figure in the field. Miss Natalia Lupini’s yard runs +16 1-month momentum (77 to 93). W J Lee rides off a 1-month jockey TPR of 104 against a 12-month 87. Front-Runner pace score 3.67, well placed in a 6 pace race with only one other confirmed leader to contest. GoingTPR of 110 confirms a substantive Good-to-Yielding figure on file. The flags read honestly: FormStdDev 61 is high (the 185 is a single sharp run with weaker history beneath it), TrackTPR of 36 means no Curragh form on file, and ClassDelta +5 is a step up from his recent level. But this is the shape of secondary the model’s V2 penalty for variance hides: a sharp last-time-out figure that justifies an editorial promotion above the Coolmore-bred filly at V2 21.2%.
DROP DEAD GORGEOUS is the model’s V2 number two at 21.2%, but the editorial second is Zia Zabel on the form line. Aidan O’Brien’s lightly raced filly with Wayne Lordan riding. Pedigree is the loudest signal: Dubawi out of Youresothrilling, the foundation Coolmore dam who has produced Gleneagles, Marvellous and Happily. Two career runs on file (T-1 131, T-2 58). The Coolmore connections and pedigree drive the V2 number; the form sample remains binary. AMADEUS MOZART is Aidan O’Brien’s third runner, with DistTPR of 146, the best at the trip in the field. Wootton Bassett ex Pendant (Galileo damsire) repeats the Causeway pedigree shape. Ronan Whelan rides as the yard’s third Flat choice. SHAIHAAN brings the field’s strongest sire-trip pedigree (Night Of Thunder, sire_dist_tpr 95) and a T-4 of 138 in his form history. The middle of his form is uneven and TJ TPR with Chris Hayes only reads 73. SHOSHOLOZA has a T-2 of 150 from his Joseph O’Brien stable, but T-1 of 64 and a hold-up style at 1.00 PaceScore in a forecast 6 pace work against him.
The convergence sits with CAUSEWAY on the cleanest single read in the race: model V2 leader, best TrackTPR, highest trainer-jockey paired figure, a fifty-point improving form arc, and a prominent role into a forecast 6 pace. ZIA ZABEL is the editorial supporting call on the strongest single recent figure in the race (T-1 of 185), the sharpest improver mark on the card (RecentTrend +74), and the value angle that the model’s variance penalty understates. Drop Dead Gorgeous remains a serious threat on pedigree but not the call here.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Causeway
Zia Zabel
Race 7: 16:50 NorthStandard Handicap
7f | Good To Yielding | 14 runners
Race Analysis
A 14-runner 7-furlong handicap restricted to 3yos. Race pace forecast registers 7, the strongest gallop on the Curragh card. The model V2 spread reads tight at 20%, 18%, 18% and 13.4% across the leading four runners, with no horse holding a meaningful edge on the calibrated probabilities. GOLDEN TRIGGER sits at V2 number one on the form trajectory and jockey momentum signals. The editorial secondary goes to GAVOO at V2 rank 7 (8.2%) on the cleanest form line in the race: a T-1 of 144 (the highest recent figure of any runner) backed by a FormStdDev of 13 to confirm it is not a single sharp outlier.
Three confirmed front-runners contest the lead: Seoul Force (PaceScore 3.71), Zenford (3.67) and Star Of Sapphire (3.56). Nine prominent stalkers track behind, including both editorial picks: Golden Trigger (3.42), Coincidental Glory (3.20), Gavoo (3.00), Nakamura (3.00), Glitter And Glory (2.87), Down The Glen (2.80), Unauthorized (2.79), Substance (2.75) and Morehampton (2.73). Two hold-up runners sit at the back. With a forecast 7 pace and only fourteen runners in a sprint-trip handicap, the prominent group sits in the right tactical band. The front-running trio risk burning each other out into the finish.
GOLDEN TRIGGER brings a clean V2 leader’s case. T-1 of 135 is the second-highest recent figure in the race; the form arc T-3 86, T-2 118, T-1 135 reads as a 49-point improvement across three runs. DistTPR of 110 confirms 7f form. ClassCeiling 115 contains today’s 109 rating; ClassDelta -1. RecentTrend of +24. Wayne Lordan rides off the strongest jockey form swing in the race: a 1-month TPR of 113 against a 12-month baseline of 93, a 20-point momentum lift. Miss Natalia Lupini’s yard runs +16 1-month momentum (77 to 93), the same yard hot signal that surfaced on Zia Zabel in R6. The flags are honest: 164 days off the track (a significant absence) and no GoingTPR figure on file for the Good-to-Yielding surface.
GAVOO is the editorial supporting call on a sharper form line than the V2 8.2% calibration suggests. T-1 of 144 is the highest recent figure in the race, nine points clear of Golden Trigger’s 135 and 35 points clear of the model’s V2 number two Substance on T-1 109. The five-run form arc reads T-5 60, T-4 83, T-3 113, T-2 131, T-1 144: an 84-point improvement across five runs with no setback in between. FormStdDev of 13 is the lowest in the field among rated runners. GoingTPR of 125 is the second-best Good-to-Yielding figure in the race; DistTPR 113 confirms 7f form. ClassDelta of -6 drops him from a 115 class average to today’s 109. OR trajectory reads Rising. 14 days off the track, race-fit. David Marnane’s yard runs +23 1-month momentum (74 to 97), the sharpest 1-month trainer lift in the field. PaceScore 3.00 in a forecast 7 pace puts him in the tracking band. The model penalises the small-yard signal (TJ TPR with Luke McAteer reads 84); the form line refuses to support that suppression.
The model’s V2 second pair both have flags on close reading. SUBSTANCE is Joseph O’Brien with McMonagle. The headline figure is a T-2 of 194 on Good-to-Yielding ground, which drives the GoingTPR calibration. But T-1 of 109 means he collapsed by 85 points last time out; RecentTrend of -23 confirms the slide. ClassDelta -6, tongue tie applied. The 194 is a single ceiling figure rather than a sustained level. ZENFORD is J P Murtagh’s runner with apprentice Rory Mulligan (5). The form arc T-3 56, T-2 62, T-1 104 is improving but starts from a low base; ClassDelta +4 is a step up. Front-Runner pace 3.67 means he contests the lead against two others. Hood applied. NAKAMURA brings the field’s best DistTPR (152) and a sound GoingTPR of 122, but the apprentice booking and TJ TPR of 77 read as below the top pair. INVINCIBLE WILL posts the sharpest RecentTrend in the field at +38, but Hold-Up at PaceScore 1.47 in a forecast 7 race is the wrong tactical setup. SEOUL FORCE has the highest pace score in the race (3.71) and the Harrington-Foley combination, but T-1 of 73 and 185 days off both flag the recent form.
The convergence sits with GOLDEN TRIGGER on a 49-point improving form arc, the strongest jockey momentum in the race (Lordan +20), a sharp yard signal (Lupini +16), and a prominent role into a forecast 7 pace. GAVOO is the editorial supporting call on the highest recent figure in the race (T-1 144), the lowest FormStdDev (13), an 84-point progressive arc, a class drop of -6, and the sharpest 1-month trainer momentum on the card (Marnane +23). Two cases, one model-fronted and one editorial; the form line on both stands up.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Golden Trigger
Gavoo
Race 8: 17:25 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Habitat Handicap (Premier Handicap)
6f | Good To Yielding | 23 runners
Race Analysis
The Curragh’s largest field of the day: 23 runners in a 6-furlong Premier Handicap, with race pace forecast registering 11. That is the strongest gallop on the entire Curragh card and one of the strongest you will see in Irish racing. The TPR V2 spread reads diluted across the field, with no horse passing 12.5%. The model has Tinas Indian on top on the strength of TrackTPR and DistTPR, but the recent form line is choppy and the OR trajectory is “Falling”. The editorial primary goes to BODHI BEAR on the cleaner form data, with AVIATRICE the supporting call on the most distinctive Curragh-specific profile in the race.
Four confirmed front-runners contest the lead: Unique Journey (PaceScore 4.00), Tinas Indian (3.93), Gerrits Gem (3.93) and Barbapapa (3.80). Six prominent stalkers track behind, including BODHI BEAR (3.20). Several mid-division and hold-up types sit deeper. With a forecast 11 pace in a 23-runner sprint, the field will be strung out by halfway. The front-running quartet risks burning each other out into the finish. Prominent stalkers with sharp recent form on the conditions get the cleanest tactical setup.
BODHI BEAR brings the strongest form line in the race despite a V2 rank of 6 (4.5%). T-1 of 145 is the second-highest recent figure in the field, eight points clear of Tinas Indian’s V2 number one mark and consistent with his T-2 of 137. Back-to-back competitive runs at this level. GoingTPR of 131 is the best Good-to-Yielding figure in the race; only Erosandpsyche’s 129 sits within four points. RecentTrend of +41 is the second-sharpest improver figure in the field. ClassDelta of -8 drops him from a recent 125 class average to today’s 117. Seamie Heffernan rides. 26 days off, race-fit. A prominent PaceScore of 3.20 puts him in the right tactical band for an 11-pace 6-furlong handicap. The one flag is an OR trajectory of “Falling”: the handicapper has not yet caught up with the recent improvement, which usually reads as a positive ahead of a competitive race.
AVIATRICE is the editorial supporting call on the most distinctive Curragh-specific profile in the field. TrackTPR of 172 is the best Curragh figure in the race by 31 points over the next-highest (Tinas Indian’s 141). FormStdDev of 4 is the lowest in the field, matching Barbapapa for the tightest spread on the card. T-1 132, T-2 124, T-3 122, T-4 172: consistent figures with a Curragh peak buried in the recent profile. OR delta of +10 (“Well Above” the last win mark) reads as a horse running above his winning level. ClassDelta 0, today’s class window. David Marnane’s yard runs +23 1-month momentum (74 to 97), the same yard heat that surfaced on Gavoo in R7. The flags are honest: 197 days off the track and a GoingTPR of just 54 on Good-to-Yielding ground. The case is that a 23-runner Premier Handicap rewards horses that know the track better than the rest, and on every Curragh-specific metric Aviatrice is clear of the field.
TINAS INDIAN is the model’s V2 number one at 12.5% on the strength of TrackTPR 141 and DistTPR 137, both top-three in the race. But T-1 of just 87 last time out, OR trajectory Falling, RecentTrend -7 and ClassDelta +3 all flag a horse whose recent form does not match the historical figures. Apprentice Joseph Harnett (7) takes the 7lb claim. A front-runner role in an 11-pace race is the wrong tactical setup. CITY HOUSE brings the highest single recent figure in the race with T-1 of 169, 24 points clear of Bodhi Bear, and RecentTrend of +82, the sharpest improver mark on the entire Curragh card. The flags are honest: FormStdDev 69 is the highest in the field (the 169 is one huge run after weaker history) and Mid-Division pace 1.87 in an 11-pace field is awkward. EROSANDPSYCHE drops the biggest class change in the race (ClassDelta -10) with GoingTPR 129 (second-best on the surface), Gary Carroll up, and Daniel J Murphy’s yard at +34 1-month momentum, the sharpest 1-month trainer lift on the entire Curragh card. T-1 of 129. The flag is the 8yo profile and a Mid-Division tactical position. UNIQUE JOURNEY is the model’s V2 number two with Colin Keane and the most decisive PaceScore in the race (4.00), but T-1 of just 66, RecentTrend -18 and 49 days off all flag the recent form. FORT VEGA has T-1 of 150 in his recent profile, but 293 days off and a trainer 2% strike rate close the door.
The convergence on the form line sits with BODHI BEAR on the best GoingTPR in the race (131), the second-highest recent figure (T-1 145), back-to-back competitive runs, a class drop of -8, and a prominent pace role into a forecast 11 gallop. The model’s V2 number one Tinas Indian carries the historical figures but not the current form. AVIATRICE is the editorial supporting call on the most distinctive Curragh-specific profile in the field: TrackTPR 172 (best in the race by 31 points), FormStdDev 4 (lowest in field), and the Marnane yard on +23 1-month momentum. A track-specialist angle in a maximum field where surface knowledge counts.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Bodhi Bear
Aviatrice
Race 9: 17:55 ODriscolls Irish Whiskey Irish EBF Maiden
6f | Good To Yielding | 23 runners
Race Analysis
The Curragh’s final race is a 17-runner maiden over 10 furlongs, mixing eight runners with prior form against nine first-time starters. Race pace forecast registers 3, the slowest gallop of the day, with only one confirmed front-runner in the field. In a 17-runner long-trip maiden on a slow pace, class and pedigree usually count more than recent figures, but two specific signals carry the race. THE SHANDYMAN is a Willie Mullins Flat runner, which is by itself a meaningful piece of information. WILL YOU STOP brings the highest single recent figure in the field, 23 points clear of the next-best, despite a V2 rank of just 5.
Echo Inferno (PaceScore 4.00) is the only confirmed front-runner in the field. Two prominent stalkers track him: THE SHANDYMAN (3.11) and Lonely Island (3.11). Theorist (2.92) is the next prominent type, with WILL YOU STOP (2.00) and Matada (2.00) sitting mid-division. The remaining runners populate the hold-up and unraced bands. The slow pace forecast in a 17-runner field with one solo leader means Echo Inferno could pinch a soft lead, but stamina at 10f off a single career run on a 265-day return is a big ask. The hold-up runners with class profile sit in the right tactical band for the closing stages.
THE SHANDYMAN is the model’s V2 leader at 23.4% and brings the loudest yard signal in the race. Willie Mullins is the dominant National Hunt trainer in Europe; his Flat runners are uncommon and freighted with intent. The yard sits on +24 1-month momentum (100 to 124), the strongest momentum lift among the trainers in this race. T-1 of 108 is his most recent figure across two career runs; the T-2 of 7 marks a non-effort that the model has discounted but which inflates the variance. ClassDelta of +8 is the largest step up in the field. Cracksman sire (sire_dist_tpr 82) offers a middle-distance influence. The flags are 219 days off the track (a significant absence) and J M Sheridan as the booked rider, the yard’s standard Flat pilot rather than a freelance star. TJ TPR 89.
WILL YOU STOP is the editorial supporting call on the single sharpest piece of recent form in the field. T-1 of 137 last time out is 23 points clear of Lonely Island’s 114, the next-highest figure in the race. GoingTPR of 137 is the best Good-to-Yielding figure on file. ClassDelta of -8 is the biggest class drop in the field, from a 120 class average to today’s 112. Saxon Warrior sire offers a 1m2f influence. The flag is small-yard signal: Andrew Slattery trains and rides, with a trainer-jockey combined TPR of 80, well below the leading group of paired figures. The case is built on the form line and the value the V2 calibration concedes by ranking him fifth. The same editorial template as Zia Zabel in R6 and Gavoo in R7: a sharp single recent figure that the variance penalty hides.
Three runners sit in genuine threat range. COUNT BEZUKHOV is the model’s V2 number two at 17.5% and carries the best pedigree in the race: Wootton Bassett (sire_juv_tpr 90, sire_dist_tpr 93) out of Miss Yoda by Sea The Stars. Joseph O’Brien runs with Dylan Browne McMonagle on board. Hold-Up at PaceScore 1.00 in a slow pace race is the right tactical setup. Tongue tie applied, 13 days off, one career run with T-1 of 97. LONELY ISLAND brings Colin Keane’s booking on a clean Hello Youmzain runner, with the sire posting the best sire_dist_tpr in the race at 101. T-1 of 114 is the highest among the multiple-start runners. ClassDelta 0, 11 days off, race-fit. GLEN ECHO carries the best GoingTPR plus DistTPR combination among the consistent runners at 120 and 120, off a T-2 figure of 120. Gavin Cromwell trains and Gary Carroll rides. T-1 of 45 is the obvious soft spot in his two-run profile. WALK IN PROVENCE is the wild card on pedigree: Frankel out of Walk In Marrakesh by Siyouni, the strongest sire juvenile TPR (92) on the entire card. Debut, J P Murtagh trains, apprentice N G McCullagh rides. No form data, but the pedigree is the strongest in the race.
The convergence sits with THE SHANDYMAN on the rarest yard signal in the race, a Willie Mullins Flat runner in form, paired with a V2 number one rating and the largest 1-month trainer momentum on the card. WILL YOU STOP is the editorial supporting call on the highest single recent figure in the race (T-1 137), the best Good-to-Yielding figure (137), and the biggest class drop (-8). Two cases on different shapes: an unusual yard signal on the model leader, and a sharp form-line value at V2 rank 5.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
The Shandyman
Will You Stop
Conclusion
Every selection above comes from the same approach: where the model’s calibrated probability, the conditions form, the handicap profile and the pace setup converge, the signal is strong; where they pull apart, the case is flagged. Some races aligned cleanly, others asked us to read the race shape over the headline TPR.
This guide covers two selections per race. The EquiAnalytix dashboard carries the full picture: every runner, every metric, every race we cover, every day of the calendar, with the calibrated TPR, the conditions ranks, the handicap markings and the trainer momentum signals all visible at a glance. Watch for non-runners and any change in going overnight at Newbury, both of which can shuffle pace dynamics and ranks materially.
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