Introduction
Classics weekend opens at Epsom Downs on Friday with the Betfred Oaks, the historic three-year-old fillies’ classic and the headline race on the card. Going is reported Good to Soft on the round course, with the straight five-furlong strip drying faster and riding closer to Good. The data has plenty to say. This is our race-by-race breakdown of Oaks Day at Epsom, produced in partnership with the Tote. For each of the eight races, we lay out what the EquiAnalytix TPR model sees, where the data aligns with the market, and where it disagrees. The full eight-race card forms part of Tote World Pool, and the Tote Placepot runs across the first six races.
How We Approach The Data
Our analysis is built around the TPR rating, a calibrated probability score generated by our machine learning model. The model takes a horse’s recent speed figures, going preferences, distance profile, course record, trainer and jockey form, pace dynamics, class profile, form trajectory and handicap-mark intelligence, and produces a single forward-looking score for today’s race. Across 836,398 walk-forward tested predictions, the model’s top-four ranked horses have contained the winner 73% of the time, with calibration sitting at 0.07 of a percentage point.
The supporting variables you will see throughout:
- Recent speed ratings.The class-adjusted speed figures from each horse’s last five runs. The most recent run carries the most weight, but context matters: a strong figure earned in a Group 1 is a different proposition to one earned in a Class 5 handicap.
- Average rating over this trip.Each horse’s average speed rating at today’s distance. Important across this card, where five-furlong sprinters and twelve-furlong stayers are both in action.
- Average rating on Good to Soft.Each horse’s average speed rating on similar ground. With Good to Soft ground forecast on the round course, this highlights which runners have proven form on a slower surface.
- Average rating around Epsom.Each horse’s average speed rating at today’s track. Epsom is uniquely demanding (downhill bend, cambered straight), so prior course form carries weight.
- Trainer and jockey momentum.Each trainer’s 1-month average rating versus their 12-month baseline, plus the trainer-jockey combination’s average across the past year. The yards arriving at Epsom in form are often the ones plundering the spring Group races.
- Historical pace-and-draw fit.From our database of 39,000+ historical Epsom runs, we identify which pace styles and draw positions have historically won above or below market expectation at this trip and going.
Convergence Analysis
Where multiple independent data points, the TPR rating, recent speed ratings, trip and going profile, course form, trainer momentum, and historical pace-and-draw fit, all point to the same horse, we call that convergence. It is the foundation of everything we do. A horse can top the TPR rating, but if they have never been tested at today’s trip and the trainer’s strike rate has halved in the last month, the convergence is weak. When everything aligns, the signal is strong. We will show you exactly where that happens, race by race.
Let’s get into the card.
Race 1: 13:30 Win With Zyn 3YO Dash Handicap
5f – Good to Soft -16 runners – Class 2
Race Analysis
Epsom’s opener is a 16-runner 3yo sprint handicap at five furlongs on Good to Soft. Race pace forecast registers 7, the strongest gallop on the entire Oaks Day card, with five confirmed front-runners. The Epsom factor sits over the top of the TPR model: on Good to Soft, the field tends to come back to the near-side rail through the closing stages, which hands a meaningful edge to runners drawn low.
Five confirmed front-runners line up: Shes Got A Brother, Hanney Girl, Rosie Frith, Naanas Shadow and One And Gone. Five leaders in a sprint handicap is a recipe for a fast first half and a finishing race over the closing furlongs. Prominent stalkers with strong recent figures and a low draw get the cleanest setup; pure leaders drawn wide of the rail bias have the most to find.
ALFA DUPLICATE is the editorial primary on the loudest single signal in the race. He earned a speed rating of 174 last time out, the highest current-form figure in the field by 41 points. The figures from his last three runs read 98, 153 and 174, a 76-point climb that is the sharpest improvement in the race. He averages a speed rating of 141 over five furlongs, the best confirmed trip figure of any rated runner. He runs at the same class today as his recent starts and the official handicapper still has him on the way up, off a mark four pounds higher than when he last won. The Epsom-specific upgrade is the draw: ALFA DUPLICATE breaks from stall 1, the rail post that the field will be drifting toward through the running on Good to Soft ground. His prominent-stalker style is the right tactical position for the pace meltdown. Silvestre De Sousa rides.
SHES GOT A BROTHER is the TPR model’s top pick at 15.3%, anchored by an average speed rating of 125 over five furlongs and a career peak of 161 three runs back, the trip ceiling. Michael and David Easterby’s yard sits at a steady 77 trainer rating, with Billy Garritty riding off a sharper 94 jockey rating over the past month. The flags read honestly. Her last three runs read 161, 133 and 82, a 40-point decline that is the steepest in the field. Stall 15 places her wide of the draw bias on a strip of track where on Good to Soft the rail tends to win the day. The case for her sits in the trip ceiling and the TPR rating; the form line and the high draw are the counters worth knowing.
Three runners sit in genuine threat range. WEDONTTELLLIES is the strongest non-pick on draw and form line: an official rating of 83 is joint-second highest in the field, a speed rating of 105 thirteen days ago is consistent with the rest of his career arc, and Richard Hughes and Billy Loughnane combine for an average rating of 106 across the past year, the strongest trainer-jockey pairing in the race. Stall 4 sits firmly on the favoured side and his mid-division pace style gives him the flexibility to track the leaders along the rail. NAANAS SHADOW is the TPR model’s second pick with Oisin Murphy. Her recent figures vary by just 17 points, the second-most consistent line in the field, and she averages 108 on Good to Soft ground, the best confirmed surface figure outside One And Gone. Stall 8 sits middle of the draw and her front-running role will be tested by the speed war. ONE AND GONE owns the conditions profile of the race on paper: he averages 113 on Good to Soft (the best on file) and his recent figures vary by only 8 points, the lowest by some daylight. Stall 11 puts him on the wrong side of the bias and forces an early angle. TEMPLE OF ATHENA owns the field’s highest official rating at 87 and a career-best 139 four runs back, but a speed rating of 17 last time and a 45-point decline across recent runs mark a form collapse you would need to take on faith.
The convergence sits with ALFA DUPLICATE on the highest recent speed rating in the race, the best confirmed five-furlong form, a 76-point improving arc, a handicapper on the rise, and the low-draw post on the Epsom rail bias for Good to Soft. SHES GOT A BROTHER is the supporting call on the top TPR rating and the trip-ceiling figure, with the form-line decline and the high draw both worn openly.
🎯 WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Alfa Duplicate
Shes Got A Brother
Race 2: 14:05 Oddschecker British EBF Woodcote Stakes (Conditions Race)
6f 3y – Good to Soft -14 runners – Class 2
Race Analysis
The Woodcote Stakes brings 14 lightly raced two-year-olds together over six furlongs on Good to Soft ground. Race pace forecast registers 7 again, matching the opener as the strongest gallop on the card so far, with five confirmed front-runners. The same Epsom draw bias from the opener applies: low draws sit on the favoured side of the closing rail line, prominent stalkers benefit from a hot pace, and leaders drawn wide have the most to find.
Five confirmed front-runners line up: Wild Terrain, Possessive, Alpe Dhuez, Ardad Steve and Time And Effort, with Hickory Lad pressing close behind. Six runners contesting the early lead in a 14-runner 2yo Conditions race signals an incandescent gallop. Prominent stalkers with strong recent figures and low draws sit in the right tactical band.
THE BOOKKEEPER is the editorial primary on a convergence of conditions, draw and yard signal that reads as stronger than his number-two TPR rating suggests. He averages a speed rating of 118 on Good to Soft, the best confirmed surface figure of any runner with form on file. Richard Hughes and Hector Crouch combine for an average rating of 108 across the past year, the strongest trainer-jockey pairing in the race. A speed rating of 118 fourteen days ago anchors the form line; two runs ago he earned 21, the single immature non-effort common in second runs at two, and the TPR model has discounted it without losing the recent reading. He steps up five points in class today, a modest move inside his ceiling. Drawn 3, firmly on the favoured side of the rail bias. His prominent-stalker pace style puts him in the right tactical band to track the leaders along the rail through the closing stages.
POSSESSIVE is the supporting call on the strongest 2yo pedigree on the card and the hottest trainer signal in the race. His sire Lucky Vega delivers an 86 average rating from juvenile runners, 92 over this trip and 105 on Good to Soft ground: the best stallion profile of any runner declared today. K R Burke runs at a 20% strike rate over twelve months, the highest in the field, and his runners have been hitting 102 this past month against a 101 average over the year. Clifford Lee rides off a 100 jockey rating in the past month. A 119 on debut anchors the rating and the trip figure stands on the same evidence. He runs at the same class today. Drawn 6, one stall outside The Bookkeeper post on the same favoured side. The flag is the front-running pace style; he presses with the leaders rather than tracks, and the pedigree and yard signal earn him the place either way.
WILD TERRAIN is the TPR model’s top pick at 23.4% on the back of a 152 from her one career run for Hugo Palmer, with the same figure averaged over six furlongs. Trainer momentum reads sharp (84 over the year, 93 in the past month) and Murphy rides. The flag is the same shape as the opener: stall 13 sits her wide of the rail bias on Good to Soft, and a front-running role in a five-way speed war from the wrong side of the draw is a hard ask. HICKORY LAD owns the highest single career speed rating in the race at 168 two runs back, with 150 last time out and recent figures varying by just 8 points, the most consistent line of any rated runner. He drops 12 points in class today, the biggest class drop in the field. Drawn 10 in a front-running role, he fights the draw and the pace at once. ARDAD STEVE brings the second-strongest debut rating at 122 from stall 14, leading from the worst draw of the day. HAVANA FLASH is the true debutant for George Boughey and Billy Loughnane, with the second-best 2yo pedigree on file (sire Havana Grey at 82 juvenile rating, 90 over the trip). No form to anchor the call.
The convergence sits with THE BOOKKEEPER on the best confirmed Good to Soft figure in the race, the strongest trainer-jockey pairing of any runner today, a recent 118 inside a modest class step, a prominent-stalker pace role and stall 3 on the favoured rail. POSSESSIVE is the supporting call on the strongest 2yo pedigree at the meeting, K R Burke at a 20% strike rate, a 119 on debut and a low-draw post on the same favoured side. Wild Terrain remains a serious threat on the TPR rating and the form line, but draw 13 and the five-way speed war are honest counters.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
The Bookkeeper
Possessive
Race 3: 14:40 Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3)
1m 113y – Good to Soft – 8 runners – Class 1 – Group 3
Race Analysis
The first Group race of the Oaks Day card is run over a mile and 113 yards around Epsom’s downhill bend. Race pace forecast registers 7, with three confirmed front-runners and four prominent stalkers in an 8-runner field; seven of the eight runners will press the gallop, only Seagulls Eleven sits behind. Our database of 39,000+ historical Epsom runs tells the structural story on this trip and ground: front-runners overall have won 35% more often than the market predicts, and front-runners from a middle draw on soft ground have won 76% more often than expected across 57 historical runs, the strongest historical pace-and-draw fit on the entire Oaks Day card. Position before the descent matters more than the pace meltdown narrative suggests.
Boiling Point, Royal Playwright and Chancellor go on with it. Skukuza and Ice Max lead the prominent stalkers behind. The top of the TPR ratings leans heavily on historical figures, with the model’s top pick carrying the largest recent decline in the race and the joint-second pick carrying a 189-day absence. The editorial pair steps into the TPR mid-pack where the data convergence is genuinely cleanest.
BOILING POINT is the editorial primary on three race-best signals and the strongest pace-and-draw fit on the entire Oaks Day card. An official rating of 113 is the highest in the field, ahead of Skukuza’s 110, Seagulls Eleven’s 112 and Qirat’s 112. His recent figures vary by just 22 points, the second-most consistent line in the race, with the last five runs reading 132, 155, 148, 104 and 155: four runs out of five inside 132 to 155, mid-Group consistency. He runs at the same class today. K R Burke’s yard runs at a 20% strike rate over the year and a steady 101 to 102 trainer rating. Clifford Lee rides off a 100 jockey rating in the past month and the pair combine for an average of 107 across the past year. He is by Too Darn Hot, whose offspring average 93 on Good to Soft over a mile, the strongest soft-ground 1m pedigree influence in the race. 14 days off the track, race-fit. From stall 4 as a front-runner, he sits in the historical sweet spot: across 57 historical Epsom runs at the mile range on soft ground with this profile, front-runners from a middle draw have won 76% more often than the market predicts, the strongest historical fit on the entire Oaks Day card.
ICE MAX is the supporting call on the only meaningful confirmed Epsom course figure in the field and the cleanest recent form line at the right class. He averages 130 around Epsom, the best confirmed course figure of any rated runner, 112 over this trip and 150 on Good to Soft, the third-best confirmed surface figure on the card. The last two runs read 174 and 151, back-to-back figures at today’s class level, and his 28-point recent improvement is the sharpest among any of the top contenders. He runs at his class peak of 130 today. K R Burke’s 20% strike rate carries again, with Sam James riding at a steady 95 jockey rating and the pair combining for 110 across the past year, the third-best trainer-jockey pairing in the race. 14 days off, race-fit. The honest flag is the historical fit: prominent stalkers from a middle draw at this trip on soft ground have historically won 39% less often than the market predicts across 44 historical runs at Epsom. Same structural flag as Skukuza, but the confirmed Epsom course figure and the recent form line read sharper than the model’s top pick on the data.
Five threats sit in genuine winning range. SKUKUZA is the TPR model’s top pick at 23.4% on the strength of a 207 two runs back, which is also his average on Good to Soft ground, the highest single conditions figure on the card. Moore is in great form, hitting a 122 jockey rating across the past month. The flags: a 61 last time out was a non-effort, his last five runs declined 35 points (the steepest decline in the race), his recent figures vary by 59 points (the highest in the field) and his historical pace-and-draw cell wins 39% less often than the market predicts. CHANCELLOR brings Gosden’s 25% strike rate (the highest in the race), an average of 173 on Good to Soft (second-best confirmed surface figure) and a Kingman pedigree, whose 99 sire-distance rating is the strongest mile influence in the field. From a low draw as a front-runner, he sits in the second-best historical cell in the race: across 78 historical Epsom runs at this trip on soft ground with this profile, the win rate is 22% above expectation. A 32-point recent decline and 63 days off are the flags. ROYAL PLAYWRIGHT carries a 181 last time out (the highest current-form figure in the race) and Balding’s hands, but the 189-day absence, the Balding/De Sousa pairing rating of just 64 and a tiny-sample historical cell make three flags stacked. SEAGULLS ELEVEN owns a 188 two runs back, Murphy on and an official rating of 112; held up from stall 8 is the structural counter on a course that pays for being already in position before the turn. PERSICA holds the most consistent recent figures in the race (varying by just 14 points) and the best confirmed Epsom course profile in the field, averaging 134 over the trip, 128 around Epsom and 119 on Good to Soft. A 102 last time out is the soft spot but the consistency is real.
The convergence sits with BOILING POINT on the highest official rating in the race, the strongest confirmed soft-ground pedigree influence through Too Darn Hot, a steady speed-rating career line and the strongest historical pace-and-draw fit on the entire Oaks Day card. ICE MAX is the supporting call on the only meaningful confirmed Epsom course figure in the field, back-to-back recent figures of 174 and 151 at today’s class, a 28-point improvement across his recent line and the same K R Burke 20% strike rate. The editorial pair steps past Skukuza’s historical 207 ceiling and Royal Playwright’s 189-day absence to the two race-fit Burke runners whose data signatures are cleaner in the now.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Boiling Point
Ice Max
Race 4: 15:15 Betfred Nifty 50 Handicap
1m 2f 17y – Good to Soft – 17 runners – Class 2
Race Analysis
The first big-field handicap of the day brings 17 runners over ten furlongs around Epsom’s downhill bend on Good to Soft ground. Race pace forecast registers 6, moderate by the standards of the earlier card but honest. The bend factor sits over the top of the TPR model output: low draws sit on the inside line through the turn and high draws cover more ground, which tightens the editorial read around runners drawn favourably.
Four confirmed front-runners line up: Have Secret, Bolster, Liberty Lane and Kings Code. Seven prominent stalkers track behind, Respond among them. Two hold-up runners sit deeper, Quai De Bethune and Beylerbeyi. With four front-runners and a moderate pace forecast, the early gallop is honest without burning the field out; prominent stalkers with strong recent form and tactical position around the bend get the cleanest run.
RESPOND is the TPR model’s top pick at 13.4% on a form line that genuinely deserves the call. He earned a speed rating of 217 last time out, the highest single career figure of any runner declared today by 21 points. The full five-run arc reads 97, 169, 181, 159 and 217: every one of the last four runs sits well above today’s 120 class. He averages 121 on Good to Soft and 128 over this trip, both confirmed. The official handicapper has him on the way up, off a mark nine pounds higher than when he last won. He drops seven points in class today, from a 127 recent average to today’s 120. Andrew Balding’s yard runs at a 19% strike rate over the year at a steady 95 trainer rating. Oisin Murphy rides off a 101 jockey rating across the past month and the pair combine for 106. The flag is stall 15 around the bend, which on a 17-runner Epsom ten-furlong forces wider running through the turn than the inside-drawn runners ahead. The form line is strong enough to carry the case.
SPOKEN TRUTH is the supporting call on the convergence of recent form and the strongest trainer-jockey pairing in the race. He has improved 41 points across his recent line, the second-sharpest improvement in the field behind only Hand Of God. A 180 fourteen days ago and a 167 two runs back confirm the back-to-back form line. David O’Meara and Luke Morris combine for an average rating of 120 across the past year, the highest trainer-jockey pairing of any runner declared today. He runs at the same class today, with a career-peak rating of 130 to fall back on. 11 days off the track, race-fit. Drawn 10, mid-pack and inside enough of the bend to avoid the wide tax on stalls 13 to 17. His mid-division pace style means he waits and produces a late run; in a moderate-pace race with a finishing race over the closing stages, that is the tactical shape that works.
Five runners sit in genuine threat range. LIBERTY LANE owns the highest official rating in the field at 113, with recent figures varying by just seven points (the most consistent line in the race by daylight) and stall 1 on the inside of the bend. K R Burke’s runner reads as the cleanest non-pick on raw data: every recent figure between 137 and 185, averaging 122 on Good to Soft and 128 over the trip (matching Respond exactly) and front-running pace to lock the rail through the turn. HAND OF GOD brings the sharpest recent improvement in the race at 55 points and an average of 140 over this trip, the best at the distance in the field. A 168 just 21 days ago, stall 4 on the inside. The flag is the official handicapper has him on the way down. QUAI DE BETHUNE is Hamad Al Jehani’s runner: the yard has been hitting 130 this past month against a 111 average over the year, the sharpest 1-month trainer lift in the race. James Doyle rides off a 109 jockey rating in the past month and the pair combine for 108. He averages 148 over this trip, second-best at the distance. Drawn 2. The catch is a 349-day absence. HAVE SECRET has a career-best 196 two runs back and front-running pace from stall 7, but his figures vary by 43 points and that volatility is the flag. GREAT DAVID has been racing 24 pounds above his last winning mark (the biggest mark gap in the race) and earned 174 last time out, but stall 13 around the bend carries the same shape of penalty Respond does.
The convergence sits with RESPOND on the highest single career speed rating of any runner declared today, a four-run arc that lives well above today’s class, an official handicapper on the rise and a seven-point class drop. SPOKEN TRUTH is the supporting call on the second-sharpest recent improvement in the field, the highest trainer-jockey pairing in the race, and a mid-division pace style perfectly placed for a finishing race over the closing stages.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Respond
Spoken Truth
Race 5: 16:00 Betfred Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies)
1m 4f 6y – Good to Soft – 9 runners – Class 1 – Group 1
Race Analysis
The Betfred Oaks is the first classic of the Epsom weekend: nine three-year-old fillies over a mile and a half around Tattenham Corner on Good to Soft ground. Race pace forecast registers 6 with three confirmed front-runners declared. The folklore around Epsom’s mile-and-a-half draw bias is real but softer than reputation: across 39,000+ historical Epsom runs in our database, low draws on this trip and ground have performed broadly to expectation (a five percent shortfall) and middle draws four percent above. High draws have come closest to expectation on standard going but have struggled markedly on soft (winning around 60% less often than predicted), though that is on a smaller 73-run sample. The bigger effect is pace style: front-runners at this trip on soft ground have historically won 35% more often than the market predicts, the strongest historical pace cell in this race.
The TPR model rates the race tight at the top: Venetian Lace 23.4%, Legacy Link 20.0%, Thundering On and Amelia Earhart joint at 18.0% and Sugar Island at 15.3%. The model is not far off the editorial truth here, but the convergence of ceiling, pedigree and historical pace-and-draw fit sits with the two horses inside the joint-third bracket.
THUNDERING ON is the editorial primary on a stack of single highest figures in the race. She earned a speed rating of 219 last time out, the highest single career figure of any runner declared today by 45 points. Three runs back she recorded 205, the second-highest figure in the race. She averages 147 on Good to Soft, the best confirmed surface figure on file in the race. She is by Frankel, whose offspring average a 96 rating over a mile and a half, the strongest twelve-furlong pedigree influence in the field, ahead of Wootton Bassett (95), Dubawi (90), Masar (90) and Camelot (88). Joseph Patrick O’Brien’s yard has been hitting 100 this past month against a 91 average over the year, the largest positive trainer momentum among the leading contenders. She drops three points in class today. Dylan Browne McMonagle rides off a 96 jockey rating over the year and the pair combine for 102. Drawn 5, a middle stall. The honest flag is the volatility, with recent figures varying by 64 points (the highest in the race): the line reads 219, 76, 205 and 79. The ceiling has been the highest in the race twice in the last five starts; the gaps in between have been weak. If she fires today, the case is the cleanest in the field.
AMELIA EARHART is the editorial secondary as the consistency and historical-fit hedge. Her recent figures vary by just 14 points, the most consistent line in the race by daylight: 134 last time, 140 two runs back, 108 three runs back, improving 14 points across the line. Aidan O’Brien’s yard has been hitting 118 this past month against a 104 average over the year, the joint-largest positive trainer momentum in the race. Ryan Moore rides off a 122 jockey rating in the past month, the highest of any rider declared. The pair combine for 117. As a front-runner from stall 4 she sits in the historical sweet spot: across 57 historical Epsom runs at this trip on soft ground with this profile, front-runners from a middle draw have won at a 26% strike rate and 76% more often than the market predicts, the strongest historical pace-and-draw fit on the Oaks Day card. Hood and blinkers headgear retained. The flag is the ceiling: she steps up two points in class today and her career peak is 125, with the TPR leaders sitting on 174 and 219 in the locker.
Three threats sit in the genuine winning conversation. VENETIAN LACE is the TPR model’s top pick on 23.4% with back-to-back recent figures of 172 and 174, an average of 120 on Good to Soft, an eight-point class drop and a 26-point recent improvement. Buick rides. The flag is stall 8 in the high-draw bucket: across 10 historical Epsom mile-and-a-half runs on soft ground from a high draw, front-runners are winless, a small sample but the runs we have are unhelpful. LEGACY LINK is the model’s second pick on Gosden’s 25% strike rate (the highest in the race), the Colin Keane pairing at 120 (the highest trainer-jockey rating in the field), a Dubawi pedigree and stall 1 on the rail. A 167 two runs back was the Cheshire Oaks trial. Her historical pace-and-draw cell wins broadly to expectation, fair rather than favoured. SUGAR ISLAND brings a career-best 225 two runs back, the single highest figure on file in the race, a Dubawi pedigree and front-running pace from stall 3 in the second-best historical cell on the day: across 78 historical Epsom runs at this trip with her profile, the win rate is 22% above expectation. The flag is volatility, with recent figures varying by 56 points.
The convergence sits with THUNDERING ON on the highest single career speed rating in the race, the best confirmed Good to Soft figure on file, the strongest twelve-furlong pedigree influence in the field through Frankel, a positive trainer momentum lift and the strongest historical pace-and-draw fit on the Oaks Day card. AMELIA EARHART is the supporting call on the most consistent recent figures in the race, the hottest jockey in Ryan Moore, the joint-largest trainer momentum lift through Aidan O’Brien and a place in that same best historical pace-and-draw cell. Ceiling plus floor: the editorial pair is built to cover both shapes of result.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Thundering On
Amelia Earhart
Race 6: 16:40 HKJC World Pool Handicap
1m 113y – Good to Soft – 18 runners – Class 2
Race Analysis
An 18-runner Class 2 mile handicap on the Epsom round course at one mile 113 yards on Good to Soft ground. Race pace forecast registers 8, the strongest gallop on the entire Oaks Day card, with five confirmed front-runners declared. The instinct is to play hold-up runners into the pace meltdown, but our database of 39,000+ historical Epsom runs is the corrective: at this trip on soft ground, held-up runners have won broadly to expectation, mid-division runners have won 56% less often than the market predicts, and front-runners have still won 35% more often than expected. Tattenham’s downhill bend rewards being already in position before the turn, even when the gallop is honest.
The TPR model rates the race tight at the top: Sterling Knight 14.8%, Celeborn 10.3%, Mister Winston 8.2% and a four-horse cluster around 7.4% and 6.4%. The “highest single figure in field” headlines are scattered: best confirmed Epsom course figure with Sterling Knight (averages 144 around the course), sharpest recent improvement with Celeborn (+45 across his recent line), highest current-form figure with Asmen Warrior (190 last time out), strongest trainer-jockey pairing with Bragbor (142 through Fahey and Spencer). Six horses own one race-best signal each.
STERLING KNIGHT is the editorial primary on the cleanest convergence of proven course form, jockey momentum and recent improvement. He averages 144 around Epsom, the highest confirmed course figure on file in the race and the loudest single signal of “has done this here before”. He averages 138 over this trip. A 164 last time out anchors the recent line and his 41-point recent improvement is the second-sharpest in the race. He runs at the same class today, inside a career peak of 130. Ed Dunlop’s yard sits at a steady 81 to 84 trainer rating. Ryan Moore rides off a 122 jockey rating in the past month, the highest of any rider declared at the meeting; the pair combine for 108. Drawn 1 on the inside of the bend. The honest flag is the pace style: mid-division runners from a low draw at this trip on soft ground have historically won 55% less often than the market predicts across 46 historical runs at Epsom, the weakest historical cell among the top contenders. The case rests on the course-form ceiling and the Moore book; the pace cell is the structural counter worth knowing.
CELEBORN is the supporting call on a textbook improving profile. His 45-point recent improvement is the highest in the race, with the form arc reading 50, 130 and 140 across three runs, a sharp two-run jump. The official handicapper has him on the way up and he steps up six points in class today, a confident move. He averages 103 on Good to Soft, the only confirmed surface figure inside the TPR top four picks. He averages 130 around Epsom and 130 over this trip, both confirmed. George Boughey’s yard has been hitting 99 this past month against a 90 average over the year. Billy Loughnane rides off a 103 jockey rating in the past month. Cheekpieces stay on. A prominent-stalker from stall 9, a middle-draw post in an 18-runner field. The flag is the historical cell: prominent stalkers from a middle draw at this trip on soft ground have historically won 39% less often than the market predicts, but the surface and course confirmations are the editorial answer to the cell question.
Four threats sit in the genuine winning range. ASMEN WARRIOR brings a 190 last time out (the highest current-form figure on file in the race), front-running pace from stall 5 in the low-draw bucket, and the sharpest one-month trainer lift in the field (James Owen, hitting 106 this past month against an 89 average over the year). Her historical fit reads strongest: across 78 historical Epsom runs at this trip on soft ground with her profile, front-runners from a low draw have won 22% more often than the market predicts. The flag is volatility, with recent figures varying by 46 points. BRAGBOR carries the strongest trainer-jockey pairing on the entire Oaks Day card: Fahey and Spencer combine for an average of 142 across the past year, twenty-nine points clear of the next best in this race. He drops seven points in class today, the largest class drop in the field, and earned 170 last time out. MISTER WINSTON is Balding’s runner under Murphy, a front-runner from stall 8 in the middle-draw bucket, which on this trip and ground has historically won 76% more often than the market predicts, the strongest historical pace-and-draw cell in the field. 11 career runs and a 146 five runs back. MAN OF LA MANCHA owns recent figures varying by just 11 points (the second-most consistent line in the race), averages 117 over this trip and goes from stall 2 on the inside of the bend, prominent in the pace. STEM holds the most consistent recent figures of any horse in the race, varying by just three points, and a 172 five runs back, but 48 days off the track and stall 14 in the high-draw bucket are honest flags.
The convergence sits with STERLING KNIGHT on the cleanest confirmed Epsom course figure in the race, the hottest jockey at the meeting in Ryan Moore, a 41-point recent improvement and stall 1 on the inside of the bend. CELEBORN is the supporting call on the sharpest recent improvement in the field, the only confirmed Good to Soft figure inside the TPR top four, an official handicapper on the rise and positive trainer momentum through George Boughey. Course form plus form trajectory: the editorial pair sits with the two runners whose recent figures and Epsom-specific confirmations look the cleanest.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Sterling Knight
Celeborn
Race 7: 17:15 Cygames Surrey Stakes (Listed Race)
7f 3y – Good to Soft – 9 runners – Class 1 – Listed
Race Analysis
The Cygames Surrey Stakes is the Listed 3yo sprint of the afternoon: nine runners over seven furlongs three yards on Good to Soft ground. Race pace forecast registers 5 with three confirmed front-runners declared. The Epsom 7f course starts on the spur, runs across the round course and dips down the hill to the finish: position before the descent matters. Our database of 39,000+ historical Epsom runs tells the story most cleanly on standard ground (the larger sample): front-runners have won 36% more often than the market predicts, while held-up runners have won 55% less often than expected. The pace meltdown logic does not pay at this course; being already in position before the turn does.
The TPR model rates the race tight at the top: Ellusive Butterfly 25.4%, Awaken 23.4%, Postmodern and Stellar Sunrise joint at 22.2% and Greek Mythology at 18.0%. The model leans on older historical figures heavily here, which produces an interesting tension at the head of the market. Ellusive Butterfly’s top spot is built on 116 three runs back and 139 four runs back, but the recent arc reads 116, 77 and 51, a 65-point decline and the steepest in the race. The editorial pair sits one step down the TPR list with the two horses whose recent figures and momentum read sharpest.
STELLAR SUNRISE is the editorial primary on the convergence of recent form, yard, jockey and historical fit. A 148 two runs back is the second-highest single career figure in the race and lies inside the last two starts. His 25-point recent improvement is the sharpest among the TPR top four picks. He steps up two points in class today, inside his career peak of 120. Andrew Balding’s yard runs at a steady 95 rating over the year at a 19% strike rate. Oisin Murphy rides off a 101 jockey rating in the past month and the pair combine for 106. He averages 95 over seven furlongs, confirming the trip. As a front-runner from stall 5, he sits in a favoured historical cell: across 71 historical Epsom sprints from a middle draw, front-runners have won 25% more often than the market predicts. The cleanest data convergence in the race.
POSTMODERN is the supporting call on the headline ceiling figure and the sharpest trainer momentum in the field. A 192 two runs back is the single highest career figure of any runner declared today, by 44 points. Hamad Al Jehani’s yard has been hitting 130 this past month against a 111 average over the year, a nineteen-point lift that is the sharpest 1-month trainer momentum among the runners. James Doyle rides off a 109 jockey rating in the past month and the pair combine for 108. He drops four points in class today, inside his career peak of 125. Hood headgear retained. As a front-runner from stall 2, he sits in the strongest historical pace-and-draw cell in the race: across 101 historical Epsom sprints from a low draw, front-runners have won 51% more often than the market predicts. The honest flags are 91 days off the track and only two career runs to date, so the form line carries less weight than the ceiling figure. The case is the upside: if the 192 figure repeats, no other horse in the race can match it.
Four threats sit in the genuine winning conversation. ELLUSIVE BUTTERFLY is the TPR model’s top pick on 25.4% built on older historical figures of 116 and 139, with K R Burke’s 20% strike rate the highest in the race. The flag is a 32-point recent decline and stall 9 in the high-draw bucket. TEN CARAT HARRY averages 124 over seven furlongs, the best confirmed trip figure on file in the race, with recent figures varying by just 15 points (second-most consistent in the field) and a five-run line reading 149, 131, 113, 114 and 154, rare consistency above 113. His joint-eighth TPR ranking reads as the model under-weighting him. ARDISIA averages 131 on Good to Soft, the only confirmed surface figure of substance in the race, has hit 172 four runs back as her career ceiling and recent figures vary by just 14 points, the most consistent line in the race. Prominent from stall 4 (a middle draw) fits a favoured historical cell, with prominent stalkers from middle draws at Epsom sprints winning 35% more often than the market predicts. ASSARANCA averages 102 around Epsom, the only confirmed course figure in the field, with a 32-point recent improvement and a class step up of 18 points, the biggest in the race. AWAKEN is the model’s second pick on 125 two runs back, a five-point class drop and Boughey’s positive momentum (+9 in the past month). The flag is the mid-division pace style and 51 days off the track.
The convergence sits with STELLAR SUNRISE on the cleanest recent figure at today’s class, Balding and Murphy together, and a strong historical pace-and-draw fit at Epsom sprints. POSTMODERN is the supporting call on the highest single career speed rating in the field, the sharpest 1-month trainer momentum and a low-draw front-running profile that sits in the favoured historical cell. Floor plus ceiling: recent form at the right level paired with the upside of a single 192 figure if it repeats.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Stellar Sunrise
Postmodern
Race 8: 17:50 Debenhams Handicap
7f 3y – Good to Soft – 16 runners – Class 2
Race Analysis
The Oaks Day closer is a sixteen-runner Class 2 handicap at seven furlongs three yards on Good to Soft ground. Race pace forecast registers 7 with four confirmed front-runners declared, the highest concentration of leaders on the back half of the card. Same Epsom sprint shape as the Surrey Stakes: position before the descent matters more than the pace burn-up narrative suggests, with our database of historical Epsom runs showing front-runners winning 36% more often than the market predicts at this trip and held-up runners winning 55% less often.
The TPR model produces a clear leader and then a bunched chasing group: Dance In The Storm 13.4%, Colombier 7.4%, then eleven horses inside a tight 6.4% to 4.5% band. The editorial pair stays with the leader and steps one place into that chasing band, anchored by the leader’s confirmed soft-ground profile and the deepest data convergence in the field outside the model’s top two.
DANCE IN THE STORM is the editorial primary as the TPR model’s top pick on the cleanest confirmed soft-ground profile of any rated runner. He averages 142 on Good to Soft, the best confirmed surface figure inside the TPR top four, and 110 over this trip. The last five runs read 128, 142, 120, 77 and 143: consistency in the mid-140s with one weak figure two runs back to set against the rest. He runs at the same class today inside a career peak of 125. Andrew Balding’s yard runs at a steady 95 rating at a 19% strike rate over the year. Oisin Murphy rides off a 101 jockey rating in the past month and the pair combine for 106. Hood headgear retained. Drawn 2 on the inside. The honest flag is the pace style: mid-division runners from a low draw at Epsom sprints have historically won 45% less often than the market predicts across 75 historical runs, a weak cell. The case rests on his 142 average on Good to Soft, the TPR rating gap at the head of the market and the Balding/Murphy book; the pace cell is the structural counter worth knowing.
CRIMSON SPIRIT is the supporting call on the deepest data convergence of any horse outside the TPR top two. Daniel and Claire Kubler combine with Ray Dawson for an average rating of 142 across the past year, the highest trainer-jockey pairing in the race and a match for Bragbor’s number in the HKJC handicap. He averages 113 around Epsom, the best confirmed course figure inside the TPR top six picks, 128 on Good to Soft (confirming the surface) and 112 over this trip. A 136 last time out is his career-best most recent figure. The Kubler yard has been hitting 110 this past month against a 94 average over the year, a sixteen-point lift that is the second-sharpest 1-month trainer momentum in the race. His recent figures vary by just 14 points, the joint-second-most consistent line in the field. Mid-division from stall 3, a low-draw post. 14 days off the track, race-fit, with 20 career runs of experience. Five confirmed signals across surface, course, trip, recent form and trainer momentum sit in one runner. The historical-fit flag mirrors the primary: mid-division runners from a low draw at Epsom sprints have won 45% less often than the market predicts. Both picks share the same structural risk; both carry the data weight to override it.
Four threats sit in the genuine winning range. AURORA MAJESTY holds the best confirmed conditions stack in the race: averages 154 on Good to Soft, 132 around Epsom and 114 over this trip, with 154s two and three runs back. The flag is a 234-day absence, a 37-point recent decline and Archie Watson’s yard at a negative one-month momentum lift. MONARCHS GOLD averages 174 on Good to Soft, the highest confirmed soft-ground figure in the race, with a 158 last time out and a 137 three runs back. Stall 15 in the high-draw bucket is the flag. PIETRO carries career ceilings of 172 two runs back and 166 five runs back, a full confirmed surface profile (averages 123 on Good to Soft, 110 around Epsom and 116 over the trip) and James Fanshawe’s positive trainer momentum (+14 in the past month). Held up from stall 4 inside the bend, the pace style that profits if the four front-runners burn each other out. SON holds the most consistent recent figures in the race by miles, varying by just 1 point (line reads 112, 112, 110, 81 and 76), steps up three points in class today inside a career peak of 130 and averages 118 on Good to Soft. COLOMBIER is the TPR model’s second pick on Al Jehani’s positive trainer momentum (+19 in the past month, the sharpest in the race) and Doyle. As a front-runner from stall 10, he fits a favoured historical cell at Epsom sprints, but only one career run sits behind the rating.
The convergence sits with DANCE IN THE STORM on a confirmed 142 average on Good to Soft, the only TPR top-four runner with a meaningful soft-ground figure on file, the steady Balding/Murphy book and a TPR rating gap that doubles the next-best. CRIMSON SPIRIT is the supporting call on the highest trainer-jockey pairing in the race, a confirmed Epsom course figure, a confirmed soft-ground figure, a career-best most recent figure and the second-sharpest trainer momentum lift. Conditions on the TPR leader, conditions and trainer-jockey edge on the chase: the editorial pair closes the card on the deepest two surface-and-form profiles in the field.
🎯WHERE THE DATA CONVERGES
Dance In The Storm
Crimson Spirit
Conclusion
Every selection above comes from the same approach: where the TPR model’s rating, the recent speed ratings, the trip and going profile, the course form, the trainer momentum and the historical pace-and-draw fit all converge, the signal is strong; where they pull apart, the case is flagged. Some races aligned cleanly with the model’s top pick; others asked us to read the recent form line over a TPR rating built on older figures, or to lean on the historical Epsom record over the headline calibration.
This guide covers two selections per race. The EquiAnalytix dashboard and mobile app carry the full picture: every runner, every metric, every race we cover, every day of the calendar, with the TPR rating, the recent speed ratings, the trip and going profile, the trainer momentum signals and the historical pace-and-draw fits all visible at a glance. Watch for non-runners and any change in going overnight at Epsom, both of which can shuffle pace dynamics and ranks materially.
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