Introduction
Irish Oaks day is the Curragh’s midsummer showpiece, and Saturday 18 July 2026 brings a nine-race card built around the Juddmonte Irish Oaks, the fillies’ Classic over a mile and a half. The support is deep: the Sapphire Stakes and the Railway Stakes give the card two Group 2 sprints, the Meadow Court Stakes adds a Group 3 over the Oaks trip for older horses, and the Scurry Handicap and the closing Willis Handicap serve up two of the great big-field sprint puzzles of the Irish summer, twenty-one and eighteen runners strong. The going is Good To Firm across the card.
This is our race-by-race breakdown of the whole card, produced in partnership with the Tote. The Tote Placepot covers the first six races, closing with the Railway Stakes, and we flag each leg below; the Oaks itself and the two races after it fall outside the Placepot.
Everything here runs on our TPR, the Total Performance Rating: a machine-learning model, built on more than twenty years of results and calibrated to within 0.07 of a percentage point across 836,398 walk-forward predictions, that turns everything we know about a runner into a single calibrated chance of winning. Across our database the top three horses on TPR win approximately 55% of all races and the top four account for around 67%. Everything below is analysis, not advice.
What the numbers mean
- TPR (the win probability). Each horse’s calibrated chance of winning, as a percentage. In a wide-open race the leading few may be split by a point or two; in a strong one the best can stand clear.
- Speed figures. The standalone numbers you will see, such as a 173 or a 195. Each is a class and weight-adjusted rating of how fast a horse ran on the day, so figures from different tracks and grades compare directly. Higher is faster, and a horse running close to its best is the one to respect.
- Conditions form. How well a horse has performed on today’s going, over today’s trip and at this track. A high TPR backed by strong conditions form is a sturdier case than one without.
- Pace and run-style. Whether a horse leads, races handily or comes from behind, and how fast the race is likely to be run overall. A race full of front-runners often sets up for closers; a steadily-run one rewards those handy to the lead.
- Draw and course bias. What tens of thousands of past Ascot runs tell us about which stalls and which run-styles over- or under-perform on this ground. We quote these as real figures, for example a run-style that has historically won 28% less often than the market expected, rather than leaning on folklore.
Convergence Analysis
Where multiple independent data points, the TPR rating, recent speed ratings, trip and going profile, course form, trainer momentum, and historical pace-and-draw fit, all point to the same horse, we call that convergence. It is the foundation of everything we do. A horse can top the TPR rating, but if they have never been tested at today’s trip and the trainer’s strike rate has halved in the last month, the convergence is weak. When everything aligns, the signal is strong. We will show you exactly where that happens, race by race.
Let’s get into the card.
Race 1: 13:10 Juddmonte Lead Artist Irish EBF Maiden
7F | GOOD TO FIRM | 6 RUNNERS | IRISH EBF MAIDEN (TWO-YEAR-OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS)
Irish Oaks day opens with a seven-furlong maiden for two-year-old colts and geldings, six going to post on quick ground, and five of the six are having their very first day at the races. That makes it a puzzle of pedigree, stable strength and one known quantity rather than form lines. Our TPR, the machine-learning rating behind everything we do, which turns a runner’s whole profile into one calibrated chance of winning, cannot separate the two leading Ballydoyle newcomers: SPEAKERS CORNER and VICTORY SPEECH share top billing at 41.5% apiece, with ANCHOR ROAD, the only runner with experience, next at 30.9%, then DRUMBEAT at 14.8%, FORT DEARBORN at 12.0% and PORTO VECCHIO at 10.3%. With three unraced Aidan O’Brien colts all by Wootton Bassett in the line-up, the market on the day will tell you plenty about the pecking order at home.
PORTO VECCHIO is the one whose page towers over the race, and he is our idea of the likely level here despite the model’s caution with unraced horses. Dermot Weld’s colt is by Frankel, the strongest juvenile sire in this field on our sire rating, our measure of how a stallion’s runners perform, at 92, and he is out of Joailliere, a Dubawi mare whose foals have run to a dam-progeny rating of 106, our measure of how a mare’s offspring have actually performed, comfortably the best of any dam represented here. Everything about the cross suggests a colt who starts his career at a high level, and the Weld yard, which traditionally brings its best juveniles along quietly, is in noticeably better form this season than last on our trainer measures. Chris Hayes rides.
VICTORY SPEECH is the strongest of the Ballydoyle trio on the female side of the page. All three are by Wootton Bassett, but this colt is out of Words, a smart racemare who reached a mark of 107 in her own racing days and whose foals have already run to a dam-progeny rating of 96, the second-best dam record in the race behind only our first choice. The model has him level with his stablemate at the top, and if the gallops report favoured the other one, the money will say so, but on what a pedigree page can tell you before any of them has raced, this is the O’Brien runner with the most substance behind him. Wayne Lordan takes the ride.
The dangers are real and close together. SPEAKERS CORNER carries the stable’s most telling signal of all, the booking of Ryan Moore, which usually marks the Ballydoyle first string, and he is a Wootton Bassett colt over a Galileo mare, the modern gold-standard cross, even if his dam’s own record with earlier foals is modest so far. ANCHOR ROAD is the only proven quantity in the race: Ger Lyons’ Dark Angel colt ran to a track figure of 74 on his debut over this course and distance three weeks ago, our measure of performance at this venue, and the Lyons yard is in red-hot form, its one-month trainer rating of 109 running well above its twelve-month baseline of 97 with 69% of recent runners performing to form. Colin Keane rides, and experience against five newcomers is never to be dismissed over seven furlongs. DRUMBEAT completes the O’Brien trio with the quietest page of the three, and FORT DEARBORN, a Starspangledbanner colt for Johnny Murtagh, is the outsider of the six on every measure we have.
Where the data lands: PORTO VECCHIO, the Frankel colt with the outstanding dam record in the race, to announce himself first time out, with VICTORY SPEECH, the best-bred of the Wootton Bassett trio, the main danger. The Ryan Moore-ridden SPEAKERS CORNER and the experienced, course-winning-figure ANCHOR ROAD make this a deep little maiden for its size, and the newcomers’ market moves deserve respect.
Race 2: 13:40 Hailey Equine Irish EBF Fillies Maiden
7F | GOOD TO FIRM | 12 RUNNERS | IRISH EBF FILLIES MAIDEN (THREE-YEAR-OLDS)
A twelve-runner maiden for three-year-old fillies over seven furlongs follows, and it is a race where the market and the clock are set for an argument. Our TPR, the machine-learning rating that turns a runner’s whole profile into one calibrated chance of winning, sides with the powerful yards: PINK CORAL heads it at 29.3%, from VISHAYA at 25.4% and NEVER THE SAME at 23.4%, with NAUTIC STAR and REBEL WAVEtogether on 18.0% and SAGA LUCIA at 17.5%. The model is leaning on stable strength and pedigree there, because on what these fillies have actually done on a racecourse, the order reads very differently.
NAUTIC STAR owns the figures, and it is not close. Jessica Harrington’s filly ran a class-adjusted speed figure of 114 last time, our measure of how fast she went with an adjustment so figures compare like for like across races, the best recent figure in this field by six points. Her record at this track reads better still, a course figure of 135, again the best here, and she is dropping seven points in class on our measure after taking on stronger races. Her dam’s foals have run to a rating of 104, the best dam record in the race, and our trend measure has her still moving forward. Put simply, she has been running to a level well beyond anything her rivals have shown, and beyond her official mark too. The one honest caution is the yard: the Harrington stable’s recent numbers sit below its usual standard, so she is achieving this without any tailwind from home. Shane Foley rides.
REBEL WAVE is the fastest improver in the race and the obvious threat to our first choice. Willie McCreery’s New Bay filly has gone 32, 78, 108 in three career starts, that last one the second-best recent figure in the field, and her improvement of 38 points on our trend measure is the steepest of these. The handicapper clearly agrees, having already given her the highest official mark in the race at 78, and the McCreery yard is running well above its twelve-month baseline. A filly climbing this quickly, with a stamina-laden sire and an Oasis Dream dam-line, can keep right on climbing, and W J Lee keeps the ride.
The dangers start with the market leaders. PINK CORAL will be popular: she is Aidan O’Brien’s, she is by Wootton Bassett out of Where, whose foals have run to a rating of 100, and Ryan Moore rides, usually the surest sign of stable intent. But her two figures to date read 79 and then 20, her latest run 59 points below her earlier level on our measure, and reputation has so far run a long way ahead of the stopwatch. VISHAYA has the most consistent recent profile of the principals, figures of 94, 89 and 64, and comes from the scorching Joseph O’Brien yard, whose one-month rating of 113 towers over its baseline with 84% of runners performing to form, but she raced only five days ago and that quick turnaround is a question. NEVER THE SAME, from the same stable, returns from 232 days away; SAGA LUCIA brings a 94 from last season, 267 days back, and the booking of Oisin Murphy catches the eye; and of the newcomers, OTSANA represents the strong Paddy Twomey stable with a well-related page, while STOOKED is a Pinatubo debutante for the in-form Ger Lyons team with Colin Keane up.
Where the data lands: NAUTIC STAR, the filly who has already run to comfortably the best figures in the race, at this track and at this trip, with REBEL WAVE, the steepest improver and the handicapper’s top-rated of these, the pair to be with. PINK CORAL and VISHAYA carry the stable power and will be shorter in the market than their racecourse evidence justifies, which is exactly why we side with the clock.
Race 3: 14:15 Al Shiraaa Racing Meadow Court Stakes (Group 3)
10F | GOOD TO FIRM | 8 RUNNERS | GROUP 3
The first of the day’s four Group races is the Meadow Court Stakes over a mile and a quarter, eight going to post on fast ground, and it is the race where our data speaks with more conviction than anywhere else on the card. Our TPR, the machine-learning rating that turns a runner’s whole profile into one calibrated chance of winning, actually spreads the front three tightly, DREAMASAR its narrow top at 25.4% from NYRA and ONE LOOK together at 23.4%, with MOODY at 17.5% and FRANCOPHONE at 17.2% next. But work through the figures underneath and one runner keeps coming out on top by a distance.
ONE LOOK owns almost every column that matters. Paddy Twomey’s mare ran a class-adjusted speed figure of 215 last time, our measure of how fast she went with an adjustment so figures compare like for like, the best recent figure in this field by forty points. She tops our going model for today’s quick ground at 157, our read of how well a profile suits the conditions, tops our distance model at 213 for this mile-and-a-quarter trip, and has run a 180 at this track. Her improvement of 60 points on our trend measure, which sets a horse’s current level against its career history, is the steepest of the exposed runners, she is running right at her peak, and she drops seven points in class on our measure. The handicapper already rates her the best of these at 111, and our own reading of the level she has been operating at this summer sits above even that mark. Fifteen career runs make her the most solidly evidenced runner in the race too. James Doyle comes over for the ride.
NYRA is the improver and the tactical angle rolled into one. Joseph O’Brien’s filly has had just two starts, and the second of them produced a course figure of 198 here, the best track figure in this field. She is clearly still learning her trade, our reading has her moving forward quickly, and her stable could hardly be in better order, its one-month trainer rating of 113 towering over its twelve-month baseline of 92 with 84% of runners performing to form. Just as importantly, the pace map is hers: she is the only confirmed front-runner in a race our pace model expects to be modestly run, and a lone leader in a small Group field is the classic recipe for slipping the pack. Dylan Browne McMonagle rides.
The dangers are led by the model’s own top. DREAMASAR, a British raider for Ed Walker, has gone 101, 154, 161 across his last three, is at his peak and improving, but his case rests on conditions figures rather than outright level, and our reading has the handicapper’s 102 flattering him a little; he will be shorter in the market than the evidence demands. MOODY is the sleeper: Twomey’s second runner has only raced twice, posted a 175 on the first of them, and is out of Agathonia, whose progeny rating of 151 is the best dam record on the entire card, but 74 days off and a second-string booking temper the enthusiasm. SUBSONIC owns the single biggest figure in the race, a 228 two runs back for the in-form Johnny Murtagh yard, and cannot be ignored if he reproduces it. RHAPSODY, the William Haggas raider, brings figures of 130 and 135 from earlier in the season and the significant booking of Ryan Moore, but her latest 97 was a step the wrong way. FRANCOPHONE, held up off what may be a modest pace and 90 points below his peak, and SPICY MARGARITA, the outsider, complete the field.
Where the data lands: ONE LOOK, the mare who tops our going, distance and trend measures with the best recent figure in the race by a wide margin, with NYRA, the fast-improving lone front-runner from the red-hot Joseph O’Brien yard, the clear second string. DREAMASAR will be popular but is opposable at the likely price, and SUBSONIC is the big-figure wildcard.
Race 4: 14:50 Liverpool FC Foundation Scurry Handicap
6.5F | GOOD TO FIRM | 21 RUNNERS | HANDICAP
The Scurry Handicap is the day’s cavalry charge, twenty-one sprinters over six and a half furlongs on fast ground, and our pace model rates it a strongly-run race, the highest pace forecast on the card. Races like this are decided as much by position and luck in running as by ability, so treat the whole contest with respect. Our TPR, the machine-learning rating that turns a runner’s whole profile into one calibrated chance of winning, makes DARK THIRTY its narrow top at 10.3%, with a five-strong cluster behind him on 7.3 to 7.4%, BODHI BEAR, GENESIS, HEADMASTER, GLORY TO BE and ORO BLANCO, and another ten inside a few points of those. Nobody dominates a Scurry on paper; the job is to find the right blend of form, pace and treatment.
DARK THIRTY brings the best current form in the race. The British raider ran a class-adjusted speed figure of 199 last time, our measure of how fast he went with an adjustment so figures compare like for like, the best recent figure of all twenty-one, backed by a 185 the time before. He is improving, up 27 points on our trend measure, running right at his career peak, and his profile has been strengthening with every start this summer on our reading of his level. He is a confirmed front-runner, which needs acknowledging in a race with this much pace pressure, but he is drawn high in twenty, where he can control his own fate, and proven speed in career-best form takes a lot of catching even in a burn-up. Jason Hart, an underrated big-field sprint rider, comes over.
GLORY TO BE is the one climbing fastest. His improvement of 62 points on our trend measure, which sets a horse’s current level against its history, is the steepest in the entire field, and it is built on hard evidence: a 171 two starts back and another win just ten days ago, so he arrives here quickly off a rising tide. His yard is in excellent order, its one-month rating of 105 well clear of its 79 baseline with three-quarters of runners performing to form, and Wayne Lordan takes over in the saddle. Handicappers struggle to keep pace with a sprinter improving this fast, and our own reading suggests his mark of 86 still underestimates where he has got to.
The dangers come in every flavour. BODHI BEAR is the consistency: figures of 150, 157 and 156 in his last three, the joint-second-highest mark in the race, a strong 123 at this track and Colin Keane riding, though our trend measure has him treading water rather than improving. HEADMASTER is the pace play: the best track figure in the field, a 158, and a confirmed hold-up runner, exactly the profile that profits when a strongly-run sprint collapses in the final furlong. GAVOO is the treatment angle: consistent at 155, 132 and 144, the best distance figure of these at 125, and running off a mark our reading of his level suggests is more than fair. TANGO FLARE, who carried our colours into the Dash on Derby day, tops the going model for this quick ground at 166 and is back on the upgrade, up 4.5 on our recent-form measure. GENESIS, 86% of his yard’s runners performing to form, and KEKE, second on the going model and the joint-top mark, complete a formidable second rank.
Where the data lands: DARK THIRTY, the best recent figure in the race and improving, to make his high draw and front-running speed count, with GLORY TO BE, the fastest-improving sprinter in the field, the one to be climbing off the canvas at bigger odds. HEADMASTER is the smart saver if the pace collapses, and in a twenty-one-runner sprint every line deserves humility.
Race 5: 15:25 Tulfarris Hotel And Golf Resort Sapphire Stakes (Group 2)
5F | GOOD TO FIRM | 10 RUNNERS | GROUP 2
The Sapphire Stakes is five furlongs of Group 2 chaos, ten going to post on fast ground, and our pace model gives it the strongest pace forecast we will publish all day, with four confirmed front-runners drawn across the track. Our TPR, the machine-learning rating that turns a runner’s whole profile into one calibrated chance of winning, sides with the fashionable one: CHARLES DARWIN heads the market and the model at 20.0%, from JAKAJARO at 17.5%, BUCANERO FUERTE at 15.3%, BRUSSELS at 14.8%, ROSY AFFAIR at 14.0% and HAVANA ANNA at 13.4%. This is a race where we respectfully part company with our own model’s top line, because the recent evidence points somewhere else entirely.
BUCANERO FUERTE is the sprinter the clock believes in right now. His class-adjusted speed figure of 185 last time, our measure of how fast he went with an adjustment so figures compare like for like, is the best recent figure in the race, backed by a 152 before it, and his surge of 88 points on our trend measure, which sets a horse’s current level against his own history, is the steepest improvement of these ten. He owns strong course and distance credentials too, a 154 at this track and a 158 over the trip, drops five points in class on our measure, and arrives fresh after 56 days. His stable is quietly effective, three-quarters of its runners performing to form. He is one of the four front-runners, so he must survive the early battle, but over the minimum trip at the Curragh, raw speed in this kind of form usually holds. Donagh O’Connor keeps the ride.
JAKAJARO is the reliability in a race full of volatility. The Robert Cowell runner, from British sprinting’s most specialised yard, has posted 139, 114 and 137 in his last three, tops our going model for this quick ground at 149, our read of how well a profile suits the conditions, and is running right at his peak. The handicapper rates him joint-best of these at 110. He is another who likes to race forward, so the pace scenario is a shared risk, but his consistency is the perfect complement to our first choice’s brilliance: whatever the shape of the race, he runs his race. Jamie Spencer, a master of sprint timing, rides.
The dangers begin with the favourite. CHARLES DARWIN owns the single biggest figure anyone here has ever posted, a 217 from the spring, and everything about the profile says class: Ballydoyle, Ryan Moore, dropping in class today. But his last two reads are 68 and then 32, a collapse of 75 points on our trend measure that leaves him 150 below that peak, and we cannot recommend a horse whose recent evidence points so firmly the wrong way at what will be a short price. If the spring version reappears he wins; the data says back the ones showing their form now. BRUSSELS, his stablemate, has a 153 track figure but similar recent struggles. ROSY AFFAIR is the dependable one at a price, near her peak with a 135 last time and racing just off what should be a brutal early speed, a shape that could suit her ideally. HAVANA ANNA owns narrowly the best distance figure in the race at 159 and shares that top mark of 110, and COVER UP, with a 169 earlier this season and the only genuine hold-up run-style here, is the one flying home late if the front-runners cut each other’s throats.
Where the data lands: BUCANERO FUERTE, the fastest horse in the race on every recent measure, to outgun the speed duel, with JAKAJARO, the going-model topper and the most dependable profile in the field, alongside. CHARLES DARWIN is the class risk we are content to take on at the price, and COVER UP is the pace-collapse insurance.
Race 6: 16:00 GAIN Railway Stakes (Group 2)
6F | GOOD TO FIRM | 7 RUNNERS | GROUP 2 (TWO-YEAR-OLDS)
The Railway Stakes brings the best of the Irish juveniles together over six furlongs, seven declared on fast ground with another strong pace likely, three of these being confirmed front-runners. Our TPR, the machine-learning rating that turns a runner’s whole profile into one calibrated chance of winning, makes it a Ballydoyle affair at the top: CONFUCIUS heads the race at 29.3%, from CELERON at 25.4% and his stablemate CARRY THE FLAG at 20.0%, with IMMORTAL GUARD at 18.0% and TRIBECA at 15.3%. On our deeper reading of the levels these two-year-olds have been running to, the O’Brien pair are separated by barely a pound, and this is really a race about which colt you trust and why.
CONFUCIUS gets the vote, and the stable’s clearest signal comes with him: Ryan Moore rides. The No Nay Never colt posted a class-adjusted speed figure of 170 two starts into his career, our measure of how fast he went with an adjustment so figures compare like for like, backed by a 130, and his distance figure of 150 for six furlongs is among the best here. His last run produced only a 90, but our reading treats that quiet effort as one to forgive rather than the start of a decline, the sort of run that happens to a young horse without telling you much, and out of Millisle, whose foals carry a dam-progeny rating of 108, he has the page of a colt still on the way up. Twenty-one days fresh, from a stable whose one-month rating of 110 sits above its strong 102 baseline, he is the balanced choice at the top of a deep juvenile race.
CARRY THE FLAG carries the sharpest current form in the race on our reading and makes this an unashamed stable one-two. His 177 three starts back is the second-biggest figure in the field, his 152 at this track is the best course figure of these, and he bounced back to a 134 last time just fourteen days ago, a quick return that usually signals a yard happy with its horse. Wayne Lordan rides, and out of Ejaazah, dam-progeny rating 104, he has every right to make this a fight between the two dark blues. If the market splits the pair the wrong way, he is the value end of the argument.
The dangers are genuine. CELERON is the improver: only two starts, a 145 course figure here already, clearly climbing on every measure we keep, and the booking of Oisin Murphy, who does not fly over for hopeless causes, for the O’Callaghan yard. Of these, he is the one most likely to be a different horse again today. TRIBECA is the puzzle: his 185 on his second start is the single best distance figure in the race, but he followed it with a 52, and boom-or-bust profiles like that are for savers, not anchors, even with Colin Keane up. IMMORTAL GUARD ran a 166 two back for the De Aguiar stable, 75% of whose runners have been performing to form, and cannot be dismissed on that number, while SWITCHING SIDES from the Harrington yard and THE SCALLIONATOR, well below these on every figure, complete the seven.
Where the data lands: CONFUCIUS, the Moore-ridden top of a Ballydoyle one-two the figures cannot split, with CARRY THE FLAG, the sharpest recent form and best course figure in the race, right alongside. CELERON, the Murphy-ridden improver, is the pressing danger, and TRIBECA the big-figure wildcard for the widest lines.
Race 7: 16:35 Juddmonte Irish Oaks (Group 1)
12F | GOOD TO FIRM | 11 RUNNERS | GROUP 1 (THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLIES)
The Juddmonte Irish Oaks is the reason we are all here, eleven fillies over a mile and a half of fast ground for the great midsummer Classic, and our pace model expects it to be strongly run, with three confirmed front-runners committed to making it a test. Our TPR, the machine-learning rating that turns a runner’s whole profile into one calibrated chance of winning, makes SUGAR ISLAND its top at 18.0%, from THUNDERING ON at 15.3% and AMELIA EARHART at 14.8%, with JOHANNA WALSH at 10.5%, REBEL MOON at 9.8%, INIS MOR at 9.0% and BEAUTIFY at 8.2%. For the third time today the model’s top line leans on a spring figure its recent form does not support, and for the third time we are siding with the evidence underneath.
THUNDERING ON is the most complete profile we have published on any horse this week. Joseph O’Brien’s Frankel filly tops our going model for the fast ground at 194, our read of how well a profile suits the conditions, tops our track model for the Curragh at 160, and tops our distance model for the mile and a half at 162. That 194 was also her figure last time out, the best recent class-adjusted speed figure in the race, our measure of how fast she went with figures adjusted to compare like for like, and she ran a 219 earlier in the season. The handicapper rates her nine pounds clear of this field at 119, she drops twelve points in class on our measure after taking on older mares, and our own reading has her running above even that lofty mark and still improving. The page matches the clock: she is out of Thundering Nights, herself a winner of this very race, whose foals carry a dam-progeny rating of 156, the highest figure of that kind on the entire card. Her stable’s one-month rating of 113 towers over its baseline with 84% of runners performing to form, she races handily in midfield, the right place in a strongly-run Classic, and Dylan Browne McMonagle, her regular partner, rides.
BEAUTIFY is the improver closing fastest on the principals. Her surge of 42 points on our trend measure is the steepest in the race, built on a 177 last time, the second-best recent figure here, and a 150 at this track. She is running right at her career peak, drops seven points in class on our measure, and represents the quieter end of the Ballydoyle team rather than its headline acts, often where the value hides. There is a lovely thread for readers who have been with us all day, too: she is out of Words, the same dam as Victory Speech, one of the pair we sided with in the opening maiden. Ronan Whelan rides the filly whose form is pointing the right way at exactly the right time.
The dangers demand honest handling. SUGAR ISLAND, the model’s top, owns the single biggest figure in the race, a 225 from the spring, and a royal page by Dubawi out of a Galileo mare, but he has posted only 120 and 116 since, a slide of 55 points on our trend measure that leaves him 110 below that peak, and it is telling that Ryan Moore partners AMELIA EARHART instead. She brings back figures of 140 and 134 but only a 75 latest, and both stablemates plan to race forward in a contest already loaded with pace. REBEL MOON is the shape of the race in one horse: the only genuine hold-up runner in the field, lightly raced with figures rising from 146 to 159, and if the forecast burn-up materialises she is the one arriving late. JOHANNA WALSH is metronomic consistency, 132, 109 and 128, running at her peak but stepping up seven points in class. INIS MOR, second-top on official ratings at 110 with Oisin Murphy over, and EARTH SHOT, the improving Haggas raider, complete the serious list, with CAMEO, second-best on the going model at 155, the deep-cut angle for the widest nets.
Where the data lands: THUNDERING ON, top of our going, track and distance models with the best recent figure, the top mark and the day’s best dam record, to give Joseph O’Brien a famous family victory in the race her mother won, with BEAUTIFY, the fastest-improving filly in the field, the value shape of the race. SUGAR ISLAND and AMELIA EARHART carry big reputations the recent clock does not support, and REBEL MOON is the pace-collapse wildcard.
Race 8: 17:10 Hill Of Allen Stud Handicap
10F | GOOD TO FIRM | 6 RUNNERS | HANDICAP
The first of two races beyond the Placepot is a six-runner handicap over the Oaks trip of a mile and a quarter, and this time our pace model expects the opposite of the day’s earlier burn-ups: a modest gallop, with just two in the field keen to lead. Our TPR, the machine-learning rating that turns a runner’s whole profile into one calibrated chance of winning, makes VANIR its top at 29.3%, from GENCHEV and TRUSTMORE together at 25.4%, YOUSAYNOTHINGATALL at 22.2% and NOBLE HONOUR at 18.0%. Once again the model’s order and the recent figures disagree, and in a small field the figures get our vote.
NOBLE HONOUR ran the best recent figure in this race and is quietly on the rise. His class-adjusted speed figure of 148 last time, our measure of how fast he went with an adjustment so figures compare like for like, is the best latest figure of the six, and over this trip it reads second only to a Genchev figure from much earlier in the season. He is running right at his career peak, moving forward on our trend measure, and our reading of his true level has him ahead of what his mark of 78 asks of him today. The now-familiar caution applies, his stable’s recent numbers running below their usual standard, but the horse himself keeps improving regardless, and Shane Foley rides. In a race short on pace he is handy enough to strike from midfield.
VANIR is the model’s top and the tactical key. He has posted 124, 98 and 124 in his last three, is at his peak, and although his headline trend reads flat, our deeper reading of those recent runs has him sharper than the bare figures suggest, improving underneath a stable mark of 85 that our numbers consider fair rather than generous. What makes him dangerous is the shape of the race: he is the stronger of only two front-runners in a contest forecast to be modestly run, which hands his rider the chance to control the fractions from the front. Ben Coen takes the ride, and a soft lead over this trip is a golden ticket.
The dangers are led by a horse whose profile flashes brighter than his figures. TRUSTMORE has gone 64, 108 and 110 in his last three, improving 23 points on our trend measure, is at his peak off the lowest mark in the race, and comes from a small stable in the form of its life, its one-month rating of 118 towering over a 91 baseline with every single recent runner performing to form. Add Oisin Murphy, over from England and riding the card hard, and he is the obvious market mover. GENCHEV owns the biggest old figure here, a 172 from three starts back with the best distance figure of these, but his latest 48 leaves him 124 points off that peak on our measure, the same fading pattern we have opposed all day. YOUSAYNOTHINGATALL has slipped from 119 to 80 to 67 across his three runs, and TANZANITE DIAMOND, a hold-up runner in a race with no pace to close into, faces the worst tactical set-up of the six despite a 143 two starts back.
Where the data lands: NOBLE HONOUR, the best recent figure in the race and running above his mark on our reading, with VANIR, the model’s top and the controlling front-runner, the pair. TRUSTMORE, the Murphy-ridden improver from the white-hot small yard, is the danger the market will find, and GENCHEV needs his spring form back to figure.
Race 9: 17:45 WTW Willis Handicap
5F | GOOD TO FIRM | 18 RUNNERS | HANDICAP
The finale is a five-furlong handicap cavalry charge, eighteen strong, and our pace model gives it the highest pace reading on the entire card, with five confirmed front-runners drawn right across the track. Races like this reward two things: raw speed that survives the early war, and closers timing their run as the leaders tire. Our TPR, the machine-learning rating that turns a runner’s whole profile into one calibrated chance of winning, makes NAMIID its top at 13.4%, from REAL ENCOUNTER and FINAL MELODY at 9.0% and a five-strong cluster on 7.4%, including FOCACCIA. Nobody dominates an eighteen-runner sprint on paper, but the top of this one holds together on every measure we keep.
NAMIID is that rarity in a race this size, the runner our model and our figures agree on. Her 199 earlier this season is the single biggest class-adjusted speed figure in the field, our measure of how fast she went with figures adjusted to compare like for like, her 124 at this track is the best course figure of the eighteen, and she drops six points in class on our measure, the biggest drop in the race. She is drawn on the rail in one, takes a valuable 7lb claim from Jessica Maye that drops her effective burden right down, and returned to form with a 139 just sixteen days ago. She is one of the five front-runners, so she must come through the early battle, but from stall one with that claim she can save every yard. Not quite at last season’s very best on our trend measure is the honest footnote.
FOCACCIA is built for exactly the race the pace map expects. Her 154 last time is the best recent figure in the field, her improvement of 43 points on our trend measure is the steepest of the eighteen, and she is running right at her career peak off a mark of just 76. Most importantly, she is a mid-division runner in a race where five rivals plan to burn each other up front: when a five-furlong charge collapses in the final hundred yards, it is precisely her profile that comes flying through. Fifteen days fresh, from a yard running well above its baseline, with Gavin Ryan aboard, she is the shape of the finish.
The dangers stack deep, as they always do in the last. REAL ENCOUNTER brings figures of 130 and 150 from earlier in the season and race-fit speed, though his latest 91 needs upgrading and he is another committed to the early fight. DANEH OF DANDY tops our going model for the fast ground at 150, our read of how well a profile suits conditions, but his latest 18 leaves him 126 points off his peak, today’s most extreme boom-or-bust profile. APACHE OUTLAW ran a 147 just seven days ago, is at his peak and thrives on quick turnarounds, while FINAL MELODY, another of the front-runners, brings 126 and 122 from recent weeks, and NOUVEL ESPOIR, a hold-up runner climbing 28 points on our trend measure off a light mark, is the other one suited by a pace collapse. CARRIGANS GROVE, a 145 ten days ago, and SOVEREIGN CRY, consistent without winning, complete a second rank that could produce a shock without surprising anyone.
Where the data lands: NAMIID, the biggest figure, best course record and biggest class drop in the race, with her claim and rail draw, alongside FOCACCIA, the fastest-improving sprinter in the field with the run-style the pace map loves. APACHE OUTLAW and NOUVEL ESPOIR are the next-best fits for the likely shape, and in an eighteen-runner five-furlong finale, humility is the final word of the day.
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