Introduction
Welcome back to our Tote World Pool Guide, and if this is your first visit, you’re in for a treat. Today we explore a nine-race card at the Curragh for Irish Derby Day 2025. Each contest comes with its own narrative: fiercely competitive handicaps, emerging talents, and a showpiece at 16:10 as favourite Lambourn bids for a Derby double. Whether you value data-driven insight or simply love the thrill of great racing, there’s plenty here to engage every fan.
Long-time readers will know how our bespoke Speed Ratings have turned modest stakes into impressive outcomes—from Cheltenham triumphs to Royal Ascot surprises and Aintree highlights. If you’re new to EquiAnalytix, we blend fifty years of UK and Irish form data with advanced machine learning algorithms to highlight horses that offer genuine value in the market. And through our analysis, we have found that returns from our selections can be further enhanced via the Tote World Pool, where liquidity is in abundance. No jargon, no clutter, just clear ratings and practical selections.
Latest Update
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Race 1: 13:15 Curragh Dubai Duty Free Handicap
Irish Derby Day gets underway with a handicap over the 1m 1f trip, featuring a competitive-looking field of 13.
Race Analysis
On a day that will no doubt heavily feature the masterful trainer Aidan O’Brien, it is no surprise to see his charge, MISSISSIPPI RIVER popular in this opener. Having won as he liked last time at Leopardstown, he sits clearly atop our Total Performance Ratings here. Our TPR figures are a forward-looking amalgamation of all the raw data you see below, plus so much more, taking into account form, trainer, jockey, conditions and breeding. When you take a look at this horse’s recent EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings it becomes much clearer, with improving figures of 120, 141 and 161 on his last 3 starts. Those figures in isolation are outstanding and when you then look at his superior pedigree, by Lope De Vega out of Cursory Glance who herself got to a mark of 112, it only adds to the interest.
For those however looking for extra value in this opener, consider both VIKING INVASION & SHIOTA for your Exotics selections. Both horses demand respect given the figures they have achieved on their most recent outings. The former delivered a rating of 163 when 3rd at Gowran Park 14 days ago, and despite having proven inconsistent, he should be right there at the finish. The same can be said for SHIOTA who looks to land his 3rd consecutive win, the most recent of which earned him a figure of 160. Both have chances and can potentially enhance returns if combined in the Exotics pools here.
Race 2: 13:50 Curragh Dubai Duty Free Derby Festival Handicap
We step back a furlong for Race 2, where again we see a field of 13 go to post for a competitive handicap.
Race Analysis
A quick look below will show you just how open this race is, with chances given to several. COEUR DOR will prove popular for team Weld, but despite solid recent ratings, he remains a few pounds higher than his last winning mark and just looks to need a bit more relief from the handicapper. Cases, of course, can be made for POWER UNDER ME, LOVE BILLY BOY & RETRACEMENT, all boasting the sort of form figures to be competitive in this contest. But for win purposes their figures all trail in behind one…
And that horse is CHAZZESMEE for the Fozzy Stack team. This horse remarkably started his winning spree in 2023 off a mark of just 61, rising to 77, 92 and eventually 100. That lofty mark then looked a little beyond him during his 2024 campaign, and he then spent nearly a year on the sidelines. That of course raises red flags, but his reappearance run 28 days ago at Listowel was an eye-catcher. Carrying a welter burden of 10st 2lb, the horse went on to finish 3rd and in the process earned a rating of 170. That is an outstanding level of form, and even more so when you see it was a career-best. Now it’s of course unlikely that this 7yo son of Excelebration is improving still, but dropped to a mark of 94 he looks primed for a very big run here providing the ground isn’t too ‘lively’ come Sunday. The form of his recent 3rd has been franked with the 2nd winning comfortably next time out, further adding to our confidence!
Race 3: 14:25 Curragh Jebel Ali Racecourse & Stables Dash Stakes (Listed Race)
For Race 3 we head into Pattern company for this Listed Dash Stakes, a sprint contest over the 6f trip.
Race Analysis
And this provides one of those rare occasions where the data has completely aligned with the current top 3 in the market, albeit in a different order! MY MATE ALFIE, VESPERTILIO & BIG GOSSEY are the standout 3 from a ratings perspective, and therefore not a big surprise to see them head the market. Therefore placing those three across your Exotics combinations of Exactas, Swingers and Trifectas looks an obvious play, but for win purposes, the data is firmly with BIG GOSSEY.
This horse is certainly not getting any younger at the age of 8, but nobody can knock his consistency and enthusiasm for the game. Last seen 36 days ago, this horse posted one of his best efforts thus far when a fast-finishing 3rd in a Group 2. On the day, he reverts back to Listed company, the level of his most recent career success and of course at a track he performs so well at. It was in fact that most recent 3rd that gives him the edge here, given he earned a big figure of 166, not bettered by any of the opposition here. At the forecasted prices, he looks to be the one to side with.
Race 4: 14:55 Curragh Colm McLoughlin Celebration Stakes (Listed Race)
The races come thick and fast on the day’s card, and we stick with Listed company here for an interesting contest over 1m.
Race Analysis
On official figures here it’s of course intriguing to see both the 107-rated pair of CURRAWOOD and LORD MASSUSUS head the TPR figures, the former especially so given the 3yo weight allowance he will receive. That may end up being crucial on the afternoon, and considering recent form figures of 161, 121 & 147, this colt is going to be tough to beat. But equally you have to be drawn to the figures of Ed Dunlop’s charge SKUKUZA. Regular readers will remember this horse fondly having been a selection on Irish Guineas day, and the ride he received that day from Ryan Moore was something to be admired. This is obviously a horse firmly on the upgrade and this 1m trip at the Curragh suits him so well. Form figures of 166, 174 and 151 are incredibly strong, and this son of Blue Point is out of a 93-rated mare, a combination that screens very highly on our Breeding Data. With expected improvement to come, his odds looks attractive in what is an open race.
Race 5: 15:30 Curragh Dubai Duty Free Rockingham Handicap (Premier Handicap)
As we warm up for the Irish Derby, we first have to tackle the Rockingham, an ultra-competitive handicap over the minimum 5f trip.
Race Analysis
This 5f burn up looks wide open on paper, where at the time of writing the market doesn’t know who to back! KEKE is an obvious starting point heading the data table, and whilst he has erratic form figures of 177, 79 and 131, the runs either side showcase a very high level of form. This horse has won over course and distance, albeit off lower marks, and has the assistance here of Billy Lee so really, has plenty going for him. He will be a good selection to include in those Exotics plays for those of you looking into those markets, but for Win purposes the data wants to take him on.
THUNDERBEAR & LITTLE QUEENIE interest us from the data, and despite being some way out of the handicap I would not be surprised to see CUBAN GREY run a huge race at equally huge odds. Make sure you look out for that horse… but for the Win, we look towards THE HIGHWAY RAT to back up his recent victory 43 days ago. And this son of Dandy Man has a pedigree for sprinting, and therefore not a huge surprise to see him post a career best rating last time at Navan. That day the trainer reported that the horse appreciated the return to a better surface, and there’s still a chance he can face that here at the Curragh. A look at the market currently will showcase clear value in this name and certainly tops our interest!
Race 6: 16:10 Curragh Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1)
The 2025 Irish Derby is now upon us, a true test of the thoroughbred over the 1m 4f trip, where speed, stamina, balance and resolve will all be tested on the day.
Race Analysis
The obvious starting place is with the UK Derby winner, LAMBOURN, and on all form available to us this horse looks to have the very best chance of landing the double here. I will admit I don’t believe this year’s crop of 3yo colts are a standout, and you can see that from the data table here as many lack the sort of figures we are so used to seeing in these contests. The selection was an impressive winner at Epsom 22 days ago when virtually making all, earning a first Derby for sire Australia and in the process getting a figure of 121. Incidentally, that is lower than recent Derby winners, but a look back at his 175 and 130 still make this horse the likeliest winner on the day.
But given the open nature of this race, perhaps then the value is finding those horses at bigger prices who can hit the frame for the Place, Exacta and Swinger markets! GREEN IMPACT would be a popular winner for the Harrington team who have recently hit top form once again, and any one of the four suposed Aidan O’Brien “understudies” could cause a surprise here. And the horse the data feels best to do that is PUPPET MASTER. Ridden by Wayne Lordan, we were left disappointed last week when this horse was a late non-runner at Royal Ascot when looking to have an outstanding chance of winning. Instead, connections have elected to come here and whilst his price has all but written him off, his ratings don’t. Form figures of 158, 156 & 166 are not only consistent, but display a colt of the highest order. This son of Camelot has a true stayer’s pedigree, and with the favourite likely to want a test, it could end in a battle between them both late on. For value purposes we have to be interested in this horse who can serve it up the favourite.
Race 7: 16:50 Curragh Tulfarris Hotel And Golf Resort Irish EBF Ragusa Handicap
Whilst the excitement from the Derby is likely still ongoing, we must revert our attention to a competitive handicap again over the 1m 4f trip.
Race Analysis
There are several horses here who deserve mentions from a ratings perspective, with BESET, CHEEKY WINK and CEALLACH all possessing the characteristics that would see them be competitive here. But there’s a horse the data is very interested in and that’s CLOUD SEEKER. Representing the Slattery team, this horse has remarkably won 5 times from just 12 starts, a record that any racehorse owner would envy! He has as a result risen from a mark of just 63, to today’s 91, and hence it will require a career best. But despite being beaten into 2nd last time, he did just that, earning a monster figure of 185. That day he was taken on for the lead but showed real grit to stick on late to just narrowly miss out. Today’s forecasted pace is a little different however, and whilst being in stall 13 will be a slight hindrance, there is a chance he may just get his own way out front. If that was to happen, this son of Masar has the ability to gallop this field into submission and can do so at very attractive odds.
Race 8: 17:20 Curragh GAIN Summer Fillies & Mares Handicap
Our penultimate contest on what has been a busy day’s racing sees the fillies and mares take centre stage for this handicap over 7f.
Race Analysis
This handicap looks very open, and frankly from a data perspective it’s proven difficult to identify a real standout. ORCHIDACEAE will no doubt prove popular, having won well last time when earning a rating of 142. That effort is solid, and this filly looks sure to improve further. The same can also be said for GLORIOUSLY GLAM who despite having proven inconsistent in her 10-race career, posted a career best rating of 143 last time when just fading late on – suggesting this drop back in trip will be ideal. Those two should be played across any Exotics market you are looking at, but I would say for Win purposes we need to focus on MURKALA here who has the ratings to suggest she could be a real improver. She will need to be however, having been well beaten on her last two appearances, but nevertheless that came in good company given her outstanding figures of 138 and 157. In isolation those ratings give her a huge chance of being in the frame in what is a wide open contest.
Race 9: 17:55 Curragh Dubai Duty Free Irish EBF Stayers Handicap
As we come to the final race of the afternoon, what better way to finish than by analysing a field of 29 for this stayers handicap?!
Race Analysis
As is often the way in these types of races, you could be forgiven for thinking this was being run over jumps given the number of NH trainer representatives. Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott & Henry De Bromhead all come equipped with live chances, but all will have to shoot down a horse I believe will likely be very popular on the day, LONDON CITY. Representing the Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore partnership, this horse looks set to step up to 2m for the first time, and on UK and Irish soil will be the first offspring of Justify to do so on our data. A real unknown on pedigree but his run style has suggested it’s needed given he’s often kept finding late on, and with figures of 124, 123 and 106, he will be competitive. But he’s not unbeatable and the data wants to take him on here with GENTLEMAN JOE. From the Henry De Bromhead stable, this horse made a winning return on the flat 28 days ago at Listowel when keeping on well to win by a 1/2 length. But it was the rating he achieved that day of 150 that really peaks my interest as that has not been bettered by any of the recent performances in this field. With more improvement to come, he has the ability to go very close here.
🎲 Tote Placepot – Curragh Irish Derby Day (Races 1–6)
- Leg 1 (13:15): Mississippi River (2)
- Leg 2 (13:50): Chazzesmee (3)
- Leg 3 (14:25): Big Gossey (2)
- Leg 4 (14:55): Skukuza (3)
- Leg 5 (15:30): The Highway Rat (2)
- Leg 6 (16:10): Lambourn (2), Puppet Master (5)
📋 Selection Recap
Here are all of today’s bold selections:
- Race 1 – Mississippi River
- Race 2 – Chazzesmee
- Race 3 – Big Gossey
- Race 4 – Skukuza
- Race 5 – The Highway Rat
- Race 6 – Lambourn, Puppet Master
- Race 7 – Cloud Seeker
- Race 8 – Murkala
- Race 9 – Gentleman Joe
These selections represent horses highlighted in the analysis as having strong potential based on EquiAnalytix data models and pedigree analysis.s.
Conclusion
And just like that, Irish Derby Day at the Curragh 2025 comes to an end. It’s been a spectacular nine-race card, and we hope our data-driven insights, standout selections, and Placepot strategy helped you navigate every contest with confidence. Whether you backed our bold Win selections, dived into those Exotics markets or simply chose the Placepot, you’ve seen how the EquiAnalytix approach can sharpen your edge in the Tote World Pool.
The action doesn’t have to stop here! Each race across the UK and Ireland is covered in real time on the EquiAnalytix Dashboard. If you’ve enjoyed today’s guide, imagine having every racecard, in-day speed ratings and form analysis at your fingertips, whenever and wherever you need it.
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