A very special welcome to the first of a brand new series of blog posts from EquiAnalytix where the data attempts to tackle some of the most competitive races across the UK and Ireland. Following our newly announced partnership with the Tote, will be diving into the very first World Pool event of the season, Newmarket’s 2,000 Guineas Day. As well as that, today’s post is even more interesting as it features the data’s view on all 6 of this Saturday’s Scoop6 races, where the Tote estimate the final pot to be in excess of £500,000…. not a bad return for an afternoon’s racing! Given this newly formed partnership, I am delighted to welcome so many new readers to this blog, it’s a pleasure to have you on board. But the important question therefore remains, what have you missed?!
The data has enjoyed success at nearly every big racing festival over the last 12 months, culminating in an impressive overall profit of +121pts to a level 1pt win stake with the Tote, a tremendous ROI of 51%!
From a total of 236 selections across the various blog posts, exploiting the Tote’s exotics markets would’ve seen even bigger returns with the Exacta market returning over £380 at an ROI of 204% when utilising those races where there are two standout selections from the data!
Overall it’s been a tremendous start for the EquiAnalytix data, and today marks a series of key milestones for the platform as we dive into the first Classic of the 2025 flat season, which coincides with the first World Pool event of the year.
All you need to now about the World Pool
The World Pool brings together racing fans from over 20 countries worldwide, ultimately meaning that the platform creates huge liquidity within the various betting pools – and from EquiAnalytix’s perspective, that means better dividends! The World Pool is operated by the Tote in both the UK and Ireland, and given you’re not betting against the house, they welcome winning customers.
But that doesn’t end the excitement of today as we also have a huge rollover in the Scoop6. For those unfamiliar, the Scoop6 is a pool bet which gives you the chance to win a fortune from a single £2 stake. 6 of the most competitive races on the day are selected and you are required to find all 6 winners, with a pot that’s often rolling over to eye-watering amounts. This weekend is no different where the team estimate a final pool size of over £500,000… half a million pounds! Find below a recap of the day’s Scoop6 races!
- 13:45 Newmarket (Race 2)
- 14:20 Newmarket (Race 3)
- 14:55 Newmarket (Race 4)
- 15:35 Newmarket (Race 5)
- 16:15 Punchestown (Race 4)
- 17:25 Punchestown (Race 6)
So without further ado let’s begin this hugely competitive day’s racing, with the data’s view on each of the 9 races from Newmarket, plus two additional Scoop6 races at Punchestown!
Newmarket Race 1: Oddschecker British EBF Ellen Chaloner Stakes
We get underway at Newmarket HQ with the Listed Ellen Chaloner Stakes, a 6f contest for the fillies and mares.
Race Analysis:
The market here has very quickly latched onto UNEQUAL LOVE for the Tom Marquand and William Haggas team, and it’s not hard to see why. This chestnut mare of course won the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot last season off a mark of 102, a serious effort from her. She subsequently went on to compete in Group company, running very well before disappointing at Champions Day in the Autumn. Her ratings reflect a top class mare, and if you can forgive her most recent Ascot run, EquiAnalytix speed figures of 148 and 176 are certainly impressive. That being said, it will be her first run this season and with more obvious targets in sight later this year, as well as the fact there are others lurking in this race at a price, the data suggests it’s best to focus elsewhere.
With horses such as PURE ANGEL & TIGER BAY looking to have something to find at this level, the obvious danger to the short priced favourite is Oisin Murphy’s mount, FROST AT DAWN. This horse arrives off the back of two runs already this season, finishing down the field at Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting before running well into 2nd at Bath two weeks ago. It was that latter effort that catches the eye, given he recorded a standout figure of 196, and that just suggests this lightly raced sprinter may have much more to offer this season. With an 8-runner race, and 3 places available, he looks the obvious choice for Placepot backers and can return a decent dividend if backing the Exacta with UNEQUAL LOVE.
🎯 Play Exacta: Unequal Love / Frost At Dawn
Newmarket Race 2: Betfred Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
Up next is the Betfred Handicap, a deeply competitive sprint contest featuring a strong field of 13, marking the first of today’s Scoop6 races!
Race Analysis:
This race looks a really tough one to analyse, as would be expected from a Scoop6 race. The market has latched on early to MORE THUNDER again for that Marquand and Haggas combination who will be hoping for a strong start to the afternoon. This horse has finished in the top 3 on his last 5 starts, bookending those runs with two victories, the latter being here 18 days ago. That was a solid enough effort, earning him a rating of 124 but truthfully he will need to take a big step forward here. Tom Ward’s filly WOODHAY WONDER needs the upmost respect here, having a course record of 4 wins from 5 stars.. a truly remarkable statistic. She will certainly take a step forward from her reappearance run two weeks ago when finishing 3rd behind MORE THUNDER, and with an 8lb swing I think she’s likely to get much closer.
Instead, there are two horses that standout from a recent figures perspective and strike me as both having much better chances than what the market currently reflects. The first is RUN BOY RUN for the Richard Spencer team and the second is PUROSANGUE for Andrew Balding. The former has been kept busy over the winter on the all-weather, and has been operating at a very high level of form. But it was his most recent outing at Newcastle that has caught my eye here, where a staying on 2nd two weeks ago earned the horses a massive speed figure of 197, a value you don’t see all that often. Now the horse will need to replicate that back on the turf, but he has two course wins to his name from August last year over 7f, and with the amount of pace on show today that extra stamina may just prove enough. PUROSANGUE has a different profile in that he has had just the single prep-run at Southwell 27 days ago, finishing tired back in 4th. That will have certainly blown the cobwebs away, but don’t forget he still managed a very good figure of 140 for that effort and that alone puts him in the frame. With Andrew Balding in top form at Newmarket on Friday, I expect a big performance from this son of Aclaim. With two lively outsiders, it may provide better to also utilise the Tote Swinger market, where you would need both of these horses to finish in the frame!
🤝 Swinger: Run Boy Run & Parsonage
🎯 Exacta: Run Boy Run / Purosangue
Newmarket Race 3: Betfred Suffolk Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
The Suffolk Stakes is race 3 on the card, the second of the competitive handicaps on the day, this time over the extended 1m trip.
Race Analysis:
The second of the day’s Scoop6 races sees a very competitive field of 13 go to post, headed by the aptly named HAND OF GOD for the Harry Charlton team. This horse has been ultra consistent from his 4 career starts, having won the last 3 which culminated in a career best at Ascot in June. That sees him on paper as the form horse, but the ratings don’t quite back that up and I wonder if he’s a little vulnerable on the day.
Godolphin continue their dominance of Newmarket and ARABIAN LIGHT looks to have a fantastic chance of keeping up that solid record. For Swinger backers, he looks sure to be in the frame with stellar recent form ratings of 147, 99 and 156, the latter when landing short odds at Kempton. In most circumstances that would be enough to land a contest like this, but I am fascinated to see which version of FOX LEGACY turns up. I say that as his performances have been volatile at best, having stormed home at Salisbury last season before ultimately blowing up at Doncaster. He did receive a big hike in the weights for his win in August, but has since received some relief after a 4th place finish at Southwell in October. That effort actually saw the horse earn a career best figure on my calculations of 175, a serious number all round. One only has to go look at the 1st, 2nd and 3rd that day to see that the figure is correct and the form has been well and truly franked, and I believe he has a good chance of causing an upset, and hopefully knocking a fair few out of the various pools!
🤝 Swinger: Fox Legacy & Arabian Light
Newmarket Race 4: Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Palace House Stakes (Group 3)
Next up we move into Group 3 company for the Palace House Stakes, a great race over the minimum 5f trip that will see these horses rattling into the Newmarket dip in excess of 40mph.. certainly not for the feint hearted!
Race Analysis:
The market has this contest well and truly wide open, which from a punter’s perspective is deal as the extra liquidity available can really add some value to the final dividend. A blanket can be thrown over NO HALF MEASURES, WASHINGTON HEIGHTS & BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND, all of which look to have solid chances. Of the bunch, WASHINGTON HEIGHTS would appear mostly likely to land this race, boasting a very impressive LTO figure of 170, plus a positive upwards trajectory on his last 3 racecourse visits. The issue may be how he overcomes stall 11 and, when you then consider there is a horse lurking here with an even better LTO figure, he has to be taken to just place.
The horse in question is the Robert Cowell trained CLARENDON HOUSE. Representing Middleham Park Racing, this upwardly mobile son of Mehmas performs so well over this minimum trip. Last time out he was very impressive in the Listed Sprint Stakes at Southwell in February, where he beat several very smart sprinters. But it was the time he clocked that day that needs serious consideration, as a form figure of 186 is top class. With this straight 5f looking set to suit, I think this horse can be another to cause a mini-upset at clear value odds.
🎯 Back Clarendon House (Place)
Newmarket Race 5: Betfred 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (No Geldings)
The feature event of the afternoon is of course the 2,000 Guineas, the first Classic of the flat season that sees this year’s potential superstar 3yo colts go to post, and for many this is the race that really sets the tone for the season!
Race Analysis:
I have to say that without bringing a real “downer”, it’s not of the level we’ve seen in recent years and a field size of 11 with a short priced favourite very much supports that view. The big antepost market mover is of course FIELD OF GOLD who will be looking to give the Gosdens a well needed victory in the race. Ridden by Kieran Shoemark who received far too much criticism last season, it would be some response if this horse was to land the spoils. Having won the Craven here last month, he cemented himself as a real 3yo improver has scorched away for an easy 3 1/2 length success. My issue is that the ratings don’t quite match up to the visual impression most of us all got that day. A rating of just 114 is moderate at best at this level, and despite him having superb breeding metrics from our data, being by Kingman out of the 90-rated mare Princess De Lune, there are others in this field that I believe can turn him over.
RULING COURT is the horse that I want to start with. Sat atop of the ratings table below, this horse represents the all-conquering Godolphin team, and has been the apparent choice of William Buick for some time. Having made a firm impressive towards the end of last season, it was the figure he recorded of 163 when running green at York, before dominating over in Meydan back in March that really catches the eye. What is more, often the biggest clues in these top Group races is the pedigree, and this horses’ is a standout. Being by Justify, the same sire as last year’s Derby hero City Of Troy, he has the perfect pedigree for this level, with the sire’s progeny operating at a far superior level to most of the field. If he can continue on his steep upward curve, this horse will take some stopping.
Of the key dangers, for Tote Swinger, Exacta and Trifecta purposes I would be very interested in bringing in EXPANDED & SHADOW OF LIGHT into the frame. Both boast stellar recent form figures and have the correct pedigree to be landing a Guineas success for their connections.
🔁 Trifecta Box: Ruling Court / Expanded / Shadow Of Light
Punchestown Race 4: Palmerstown House Estate Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase (Listed Race)
We quickly divert our attention here for Race 4 at Punchestown, the 5th of the Scoop6 races on the day. This race couldn’t be any more different to what we’ve seen so far, as we race over the extended 3m trip this time over fences!
Race Analysis:
And if you felt the racing at Newmarket was tough on the day, this takes things to a whole new level. A strong field of 15 will head to post here in what looks a wide open renewal. JP McManus will look to extend his terrific week at the Festival with yet another winner, and this race also features several horses that have been competing in the UK much of this season, which is always a welcome positive to the meeting. The first horse I want to focus in on here is AMIRITE. Screening very well in the data below, this horse arrives with strong and improving form figures of 101, 114 and 158 albeit he has been beaten on each of those 3 occasions. The race itself does look to lack that star quality and whilst a mark of 140 has appeared beyond him in the past, I would expect a much stronger showing here.
We will look to play a second in the race, which arguably could be any of MAJESTIC FORCE, BEACHCOMBER, CANAL END or even the veteran SAM BROWN! But instead, it’s a UK contender that I am fascinated by, JASMIN DE GRUGY. This horse’s winning run came to an end last time at Newbury when well beaten in the end, but had subsequently risen from a mark of 81 to 127.. with some very impressive speed figures along the way. Despite being beaten last time, the horse still managed a figure of 144 which screens very strongly in this arguably weaker contest at Punchestown. But what interests me most is this horse’s sire, Masked Marvel who I truly believe is one of the very best in the game right now, with his progeny continuing to show bundles of improvement over fences. Back on a sounder surface, with a good race tempo guaranteed, this horse can outrun big odds at the time of writing and can be across all your pool bets.
🔁 Swinger: Amirite + Jasmin De Grugy
Punchestown Race 6: Lawlors Of Naas Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)
We will stay with Punchestown for now as we have the final of the 6 Scoop6 races on the afternoon, another ultra competitive handicap but this time over hurdles.
Race Analysis:
In all honesty this appears as one of the very hardest races to analyse on the day. So many of these horses have standout pieces of form to focus on, but most have mixed records where we really must pick through one-by-one. If you gotten to this point and are still alive in the Scoop6 then I wish you every bit of luck, and hope that I can help you by putting forward both the Gavin Cromwell trained ADDRAGOOLE & UK-contender WELLINGTON ARCH as the likeliest of winners. In fact they are very hard to split, the former has an eye-watering last time out rating of 239 for a 3rd place finish at Cork 13 days ago. That effort will need to be bettered now in this Listed handicap, but it appears this horse has much more improvement in him and figures of 120 and 130 previously help support that case. WELLINGTON ARCH has a different profile altogether, having been successful at Aintree last month when making most in a competitive handicap hurdle. Those tactics could serve him very well yet again here and whilst he has a handicap rise to manage, this horse’s figures set a firm standard.
🎯 Exacta Box: Addragoogle / Wellington Arch
Newmarket Race 6: Lay And Wheeler Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
We travel back to Newmarket now for a handicap contest over the 1m 4f trip, and this race look to a feature a potential smart horse.
Race Analysis:
The horse in question here is FRENCH MASTER who the data suggests can land the short odds for the Gosden and Shoemark combination. Having been last seen in October when winning at Kempton, this son of Frankel is out a Sea The Stars dam and has been kept entire by his connections. Ratings of 156 and 133 from his last two runs in 2024 saw the horse earn an opening handicap mark of 95 which I believe to be more than fair. With improvement set to come from 3 to 4 for this regally bred colt, I would expect him to take all the stopping in this contest.
For those looking at ways to potentially exploit more value from the race, look towards KNIGHTSWOOD for your Exactas, Swingers and Placepots as this improving Charlie Johnston horse is sure to be there battling it out at the finish.
🎯 Exacta: French Master / Knightwood
Newmarket Race 7: TrustATrader Handicap
ce 7 looks a very tricky contest for horses rated between 0-100 over the 6f trip.
Race Analysis:
The race appears tricky given how many of these boast strong recent form, with a blanket being able to be thrown across 5 of 6. Often when that is the case it can prove most valuable to look for a different angle and that’s where the data excels. CARBINE HARVESTER will have a soldi chance and ticks plenty of boxed, as does HOODIE HOO who will need to bounce back from being turned over last time at short odds. INVICTUS GOLD has a solid improving profile and his trainer is in standout form currently with a 75% RTF percentage, but I wish to chance outside STORMY IMPACT for young Warren Fentiman, who’s claim here could prove valuable. This horse will be making his reappearance off a mark of 92, excluding the claim, and that comes after a well battled success at Musselburgh in October last year. His last 3 form figures of 189, 138 and 148 suggest this horse may have more improvement to come as a 3yo and his pedigree suggests he can take another step forward here if ready to go. His trainer is in good recent form, operating above their usual 12m average and that bodes well for a positive run at a good value price.
Newmarket Race 8: Aston Martin Confined Handicap
Race 8 has a very similar profile to our previous contest, with several horses with big chances in a competitive handicap, this time over 7f for horses rated 0-85.
Race Analysis:
With the data not speaking strongly for many of these runners, on a day where there is so much racing it feels appropriate to stick with a couple of interesting outsiders in what looks an open contest. This way of utilising the pools can extract serious value at very low staking, and in a sport where you must pick and choose your battles, it’s often a great way to play. The first horse for that would be Karl Burke’s ARBITRATION. This son of Beckford has yet to win a race, having finished 4th or 5th on each of his 5 starts. The team may well be losing patience with the horse, but a return to 7f looks a sensible move and I have to take his last time out figure of 141 literally, despite it not jumping out of the page. With just some more improvement this horse can get in the frame which at a price would be just what we need. The second to throw into that same conversation is NAHASH for the James Horton team. This horse made a reappearance at Southwell 25 days ago, finishing 3rd at a big price behind some improving types. A rating of 159 for that effort is the best piece of form on offer and providing the horse can act as well on the quicker turf surface, he can cause a similar upset at large odds.
🔁 Swinger: Arbitration + Nahash
Newmarket Race 9: Nyetimber Handicap
The first World Pool event of the season ends with Race 9, a race which very fittingly can also be described as an ultra competitive handicap!
Race Analysis:
The more and more I study the data in this race, the more I am confronted by the fact that the data has really just latched onto the one runner. Whilst horses such as HES A GENTLEMAN, MR BALOO, STERLING KNIGHT & DOLCE COURAGE all boast chances, it’s the George Boughey trained CLASSIC ENCOUNTER that the data has spoken so strongly for. A last time out rating of 162 when winning last month at Redcar is the standout piece of form, and just a 4lb rise for that impressive success tells me that the horse has more improvement to come. Ridden by one of the very best young talents in the weighing room, Billy Loughnane, he looks to close off with a winner at HQ and end what has hopefully been a good day for you all!
📍 Back Classic Encounter (Win)
🧮 Tote Placepot – Newmarket (Races 1 to 6)
The Placepot is a fantastic low-stake, high-potential bet — select at least one horse to place in each of the first six races at Newmarket. Here’s the data-driven play:
Leg 6 (Race 6 – 16:05): 3 (French Master)
Leg 1 (Race 1 – 13:10): 2 (Frost At Dawn), 6 (Unequal Love)
Leg 2 (Race 2 – 13:45): 7 (Run Boy Run), 2 (Purosangue)
Leg 3 (Race 3 – 14:20): 8 (Fox Legacy), 1 (Arabian Light)
Leg 4 (Race 4 – 14:55): 1 (Clarendon House)
Leg 5 (Race 5 – 15:35): 5 (Ruling Court), 2 (Expanded)
💰 Tote Scoop6 Jackpot
The Scoop6 is your shot at half a million from a minimum £2 stake. Here’s our data-led approach across today’s six selected races:
Leg 6 (Race 6 – 17:25 Punchestown): 11 (Addragoogle), 13 (Wellington Arch)
Leg 1 (Race 2 – 13:45 Newmarket): 7 (Run Boy Run), 2 (Purosangue)
Leg 2 (Race 3 – 14:20 Newmarket): 8 (Fox Legacy), 1 (Arabian Light)
Leg 3 (Race 4 – 14:55 Newmarket): 1 (Clarendon House)
Leg 4 (Race 5 – 15:35 Newmarket): 5 (Ruling Court), 2 (Expanded)
Leg 5 (Race 4 – 16:15 Punchestown): 5 (Amirite), 15 (Jasmin De Grugy)
Closing remarks:
I want to conclude what has been a mammoth blog post by thanking you all for continued support. Whether you’re new to EquiAnalytix today, or have been following for some time, I truly hope that the insights given here, along with our new partnership with the Tote has helped you better analyse the key races and importantly better your understanding of how to exploit them. As always I welcome any feedback, and if you like what you have read here, remember that you can access all this data, for every single runner, every single day via our website, iOS app or newly launched Android app!