Welcome back, new and returning readers, to the EquiAnalytix blog! We’re gearing up for Epsom’s eight-race card this Saturday, highlighted by the 246th running of the Epsom Derby – one of the oldest and most prestigious Classics in the world, first run in 1780. The 2025 Derby will take place on Saturday, June 7 at Epsom Downs Racecourse as part of the Derby Festival, offering a prize fund of roughly £1.5 million with £909,628 to the winner. This year’s renewal features a field of 19 colts, the biggest line-up since 2003, promising a thrilling contest over 1m4f on the unique, undulating, left-handed Epsom course with its famed Tattenham Corner and steep descent – testing speed and stamina to the full. The Derby’s global appeal is unmatched, attracting entries from Ireland, Britain, and France for what many call the “Blue Riband” of the turf.
This year’s renewal sees Aidan O’Brien’s Delacroix installed as the favourite after an impressive trial win and consistent form under Ryan Moore; however, Charlie Appleby’s Ruling Court, fresh from his 2,000 Guineas triumph, poses a serious threat despite lingering stamina questions over the Derby distance. Pride Of Arras, winner of the Dante Stakes in May, has emerged as a leading English challenger under Ralph Beckett, while unexposed French raiders such as Midak add an international flair, each carrying strong form into the Classic.
The Derby will be broadcast live on ITV and Racing TV at 3:30 pm UK time, offering punters access to race replays and analyses throughout the weekend. With the extra liquidity from the World Pool in play, this weekend’s Tote dividends will be bigger than ever – ideal for those seeking value in Win, Place, and Exotics markets. And of course don’t forget, Tote customers can take advantage of the Money Back 2nd offer across all World Pool races!
Speaking of the World Pool, last weekend’s Irish 2,000 Guineas day was a masterclass in data-driven punting. We landed Exacta dividends of £12.00 in Race 1 with Brussels & Kansas, followed by an £8.20 Exacta in Race 2 thanks to Trustyourinstinct & Romzina, and capped it off with Skukuza winning well later in the card. That three-strike weekend underscored our +121 pts win-stake record and ongoing ROI from Tote-based selections – and now we turn our attention to Epsom.
Over the past 12 months, our readers have enjoyed a 51% ROI on Tote Win stakes and over 204% ROI on Exacta plays, with more than £380 returned on key double-standout bets. With that momentum behind us, we’ll dissect each of the eight races, spotlight key contenders, and demonstrate how to structure your Tote bets for maximum return this weekend. Let’s dive in and make the most of Epsom’s big day!
Race 1: 13:00 Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Oddschecker) (Group 3)
Derby-day begins with the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes, an open looking contest over the extended 1m trip.
Race Analysis
This opening race looks a really competitive race to analyse, and to an extent the market reflects that at the time of writing. A glance at our data table will show you that several of these horses arrive off the back of some very impressive EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings. SPIRITUAL, SIRONA, SUNFALL & SPARKS FLY all boast recent figures above the 150 mark which is seriously impressive, but the same can of course be said for BRIGHT THUNDER. This 4yo daughter of Night of Thunder not only boasts some serious form figures, but has a pedigree to match that. Night Of Thunder continues to produce some of the very best progeny, and has outstanding metrics on the EquiAnalytix Breeding Data. And this filly is no different, as she is a rare example of a horse who has improved her rating on every single run. Having made a winning debut at Haydock in April last year, she has recorded figures of 66, 95, 138, 149 and 170, the latter coming despite stumbling badly at the start. She has a remarkable record and her last time out rating of 170 cannot be bettered by anyone in this field, and it strikes me that the market is underplaying her true chance here.
One of the beauties of these World Pool cards is the liquidity that comes with it across all of the Tote pools. What that means for this race is that you can put in any of SPIRITUAL, SIRONA or SUNFALL into Exactas with the selection and really boost your returns… for the even braver I would not put anyone off a large combination Trifecta or Swinger! Why not utilise the new Build a Bet tool below where you can easily get the horses you spot in the data added to your slips?!
🤝 Swinger: Bright Thunder & Spiritual
Race 2: 13:35 Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3)
For Race 2 we stay in Group 3 company, this time for the Diomed Stakes where a strong field of 9 are expected to go to post.
Race Analysis
And this one appears according to the data very straightforward. For such a competitive looking race on paper, it’s impossible to ignore the chances of DOCKLANDS for the Harry Eustace team. A horse who has won 3 times from 15 career starts, this horse has largely been earmarked as an Ascot-specialist when running in this country, but I don’t think that does him justice. This horse sets a very high standard and has ran well away from Ascot in Group 1 company last season, most notably when travelling to Australia and Hong Kong. But in fact it was his season reappearance at Ascot last time where I believe this horse took his form to a whole new level. A 1/2 length defeat to a John & Thady Gosden horse who subsequently was narrowly denied in a French Group 1 is a serious piece of form, even more so when you consider that day he recorded a career best rating of 200. That in isolation here sets a very high bar for the entire field and providing he handles this unique track, he should take all the stopping.
Of the rest, for those looking at alternatives and key dangers I would be focussed on the Dermot Weld trained ROMZINA who remains lightly raced and boasts last 3 rating figures of 142, 150 and 168. These are outstanding ratings and on any other day would see her be of firm interest. The Oisin Murphy trained SIEGE OF TROY is interesting on past form, as is the upward trajectory in the form of SEA THE BOSS, but the suspicion is that they will all be fighting it out for the places.
Race 3: 14:10 Betfred 3YO Dash Handicap
Next up we have two of my very favourite races… the Epsom Dash, the first being a handicap for 3yos only.
Race Analysis
These races can only be described as a burn up. The times clocked during this downhill 5f sprint are the fastest on the entire circuit, and often are races that can be won or lost at the very beginning of the race. Early pace is a must, as is the stamina to make it up the final uphill finish, an incline that has caught out so many over the years. It’s a truly unique spectacle, but what does the data think?!
First, a comment on bias and pace is always important in races of this nature and one of the many benefits available to EquiAnalytix Dashboard members is the ability to see these conditions in the data. Our Pace Map and Bias Matrix give the user the power to see exactly where there have been historical advantages to add to their overall race analysis. As for this race, there continues to be a mild bias for highly drawn horses, but in fact what’s more important is pace. It’s incredibly difficult to come from well off the pace on this downhill track, and hence early speed is very important. In a race full of super unexposed 3yo sprinters, it has taken me by surprise to see that at the time of writing, the current top-3 in the market are also the top-3 on our ratings. The data can often be a fantastic guide for the fair price of a horse, but on this occasion they already look to have been well-found in the market. Current favourite RUBY’S PROFIT should relish this speed test, having shot clear of her rivals at Goodwood last month. That day, she narrowly beat market rival MADEMOISELLE for the George Scott team who this time will get a 3lb pull. And the 3rd to sit atop of the TPR figures is AGAINST THE WIND for the Kevin Ryan stable, a horse who has taken a big step forward this season with a win at Thirsk and respectable run at York last time.
It’s incredibly difficult to split either of these 3 horses and therefore the best option looks to be to exploit those Exotics markets with a combination Exacta, Swinger and if you’re feeling brave, Trifecta!
🤝 Swinger: Against The Wind & Ruby’s Profit
🎯 Exacta Box: Against The Wind / Ruby’s Profit
🎯 Trifecta Box: Against The Wind / Ruby’s Profit / Mademoiselle
Race 4: 14:45 Aston Martin Dash Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
We move on to the 2nd of the Dash Handicaps, this time for the older horses. A similar downhill 5f and competitive field of 19, but where does the data land?!
Race Analysis
As you’d expect given we are dealing with older horses, some of the recent form figures on offer are much higher than our previous contest. Horses such as SPARTAN ARROW, CLARENDON HOUSE, EXISTENT and RHYTHM N HOOVES all boast recent ratings that would see them be competitive here, and it would not be a surprise to see many of those names hit the frame. However, the data does suggest this might not be as “wide open” as it seems, as the John Quinn trained JM JUNGLE looks to have an outstanding chance of getting back into the Winner’s enclosure. His last 3 outings have yielded two 2nds and a most recent 3rd, where he has earned EeuiAnalytix rating of 200, 112 and 155 respectively. A repeat of that form of course has to see this horse go very close, but it’s his most recent run that needs further inspection. He finished a 1 3/4 lengths 3rd at York in an equally competitive contest, and having been very keen early, weakened at the finish. This horse on the data has both early speed, but also a high cruising speed which is ever so important in these races. He has previously won at Goodwood which over the 5f trip has clear similarities to this race, and it’s fascinating that connections have never opted for a run here so far in his career. He looks tailor-made for this contest and has the data to support that.
Race 5: 15:40 Betfred Derby (In Honour Of His Highness Aga Khan IV) (Group 1)
Our feature race is up next, the 2025 Epsom Derby. Arguably the sternest test for a thoroughbred, these colts will need plenty of speed, balance and stamina to tackle this gruelling 1m 4f contest. With so much as stake from a future stallion perspective, who will put their name down in the history books?!
Race Analysis
We have to start here with a horse that has proven incredibly popular in the antepost market, and even more so after claiming the assistance of Ryan Moore in the saddle, DELACROIX. Given the success our Breeding Data has in these high-profile contests, it may surprise a few of you that we are taking this horse on. Being by Dubawi, out of Tepin who was a superstar in her own right reaching a mark of 121, DELACROIX is certainly bred to be a Champion. But this year he looks to potentially be bumping into one that not only has a superior pedigree, but equally boasts higher recent form figures. DELACROIX of course commands respect with his two wins this year yielding figures of 185 and 108, but the latter was a touch disappointing and it’s not often you see a horse win a Derby coming off a form figure that low. It’s a red flag and hence the value in the race has to be elsewhere.
The horse the data believes can land this prestigious contest is the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas hero RULING COURT. Regular Blog readers at EquiAnalytix will have fond memories of this horse charging up the straight at Newmarket to victory, given he was a firm selection from the data, and the data has not deserted him this time. His 3 most recent runs have generated speed ratings of 124, 163 and 144 which is the sort of level you expect to see from a potential Derby winner. These figures are outstanding, but as is his pedigree. According to our data, Justify continues to be the standout sire in the ranks, with phenomenal average speed rating of 97 across all his progeny in the UK. That is outstanding, and don’t forget he also sired last year’s Derby winner City Of Troy. City Of Troy was out of a Galileo mare, bred to appreciate the step up to this long trip, but the same can be said for RULING COURT. Being out of a High Chaparral mare, he is equally expected to relish this extra distance and given he has already proved to possess the speed and balance, I think he will be incredibly tough to beat.
With so many eyes on this race, it means the volume in the pools is set to be very big. And hence we have to add in a couple of lively outsiders for those all-important Exotics markets, The first of those is TORNADO ALERT for the Saeed bin Suroor and Oisin Murphy combination. This horse will need to improve upon his 4th in the 2,000 Guineas, but that day he arguably the pacesetter and this step up in trip looks far more suitable for the horse on pedigree. With Oisin Murphy in the saddle, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this horse out, positive and attempting to dictate this field. The other horse that just has to be mentioned is the Richard Hannon trained NIGHTIME DANCER. At the time of writing, this horse has been almost written off at 200/1, but it’s hard to overlook his recent form figure of 152 when finishing 3rd in the Derby Trial at Lingfield. Time and time again the public knock that contest, but it continues to find horses that go on to run big races, at even bigger prices in the big one. It would be a surprise.. but just imagine what the Exotics markets would pay?!
🤝 Swinger: Ruling Court & Tornado Alert
🎯 Exacta Box: Ruling Court / Tornado Alert
Race 6: 16:15 Encore Lifestyle Northern Dancer Handicap
As we calm down from what has hopefully been an exciting Derby, we have a competitive handicap to tackle over the same trip.
Race Analysis
At the time of writing, a potential gamble has begun to roll for the Gary Moore trained SMALL FRY. This horse landed a nice touch last time at Chester for connections, and they look to go back-to-back with a horse that could have any amount of improvement in him. With anything, our edge is by trusting and following the data presented in front of us, and frankly this horse’s rating of 143 has been bettered by several of the opposition here. So whilst money of course talks, I think he can be taken on.
We have to start with BEAULD AS BRASS who has been a revelation for connections this year. He has ran a whopping 5 times since April 23rd, and has won on 4 of those occasions, rising from a mark of just 62 to today’s 84. That 22lb rise of course begs the question of how much is left, and despite a solid rating of 164 last time when 3rd at Newbury it was the laboured effort in the final stages that worries me his winning may be done for now. In a much more competitive field, it looks safer to turn elsewhere and the obvious horse is VALVANO fore the Beckett and Crouch combination. This horse remains very lightly raced, with only 6 career starts and 1 victory to his name. On his bare form, he may well be overlooked by many, but it was the horse’s reappearance run at Goodwood last time that has caught our eye. A rating of 161 that day is a near career best for a horse who no doubt was just running to set himself up for bigger days ahead. He ran that over the 10f trip which I don’t believe to be his optimum, and hence the extra 2f at Epsom looks sure to eek out further improvement.
Race 7: 17:00 Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Lester Piggott Handicap
The penultimate contest on the afternoon is the very aptly named World Pool Lester Piggott Handicap, an extended 1m 2f contest for horses rated 0-100.
Race Analysis
The horse that tops the TPR figures is incidentally the same horse that tops the market at the time of writing, CHARTWELL JOCK. Representing the powerful Balding and Murphy combination. This horse has steadily improved across his 4 runs this season, recording ratings of 96, 112, 108, 123 – a firm upward trajectory. He looks certain to go close here and has to be included in any Exotics slips you decide to go for, but despite his interesting profile, there is another horse in here that looks even more unexposed.
The horse in question is MEBLESH for the Richard Hannon team. This lightly raced 3yo son of Sea The Stars took a big step forward last time when winning at Newbury 22 days ago. Over the 10f trip, this horse travelled strongly into the race before battling gamely to the line to win by just a head. But it was the figure he achieved in doing so of 153 that commands respect in a race where no other horse has been able to put up that sort of performance. He is regally bred, being by Sea The Stars out of a very useful mare Tayma in her own right, and off an opening mark of 82 can utilise his stamina late on here.
Race 8: 17:40 JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap
The day comes to a close with a final handicap for the data to dive in to, this time over the 6f trip where no doubt there will be plenty of “hard luck stories!”
Race Analysis
As is often the case over this 6f trip, gaps to run through are a very precious commodity and it therefore shouldn’t surprise you to see from the Bias Matrix that horses that are leading early, hold a 39% edge in the market. Meaning that if you had backed every single front-runner over 6f at Epsom over the years, you’d have generated a 1.39x return on your money. That’s an incredible statistic that can so often go unnoticed at these big meetings, and I have included it here to support a horse who the data believes has an outstanding chance in the lucky last.
GET IT represents the George Baker team on the afternoon and is a horse many will remember burning up the straight at Goodwood to land last year’s Stewards Cup. This horse’s very best performances are when he is able to make all, and what’s most interesting of all is that the horse arrives here off the back of a career best! His win 29 days ago at Ascot saw him achieve a career best form figure of 184, a remarkable effort considering just how much this horse has already achieved in his career. He does however have to face a hike in the handicap, but this downhill circuit suits so well, and he can maintain his 100% record over this course and distance in a field where the data suggests he may just get an easy lead.
🎲 Tote Placepot – Epsom (Races 1–6)
Select at least one horse to place in each of the opening six races at Epsom:
- Leg 1 (13:00): Bright Thunder (1)
- Leg 2 (13:35): Docklands (5)
- Leg 3 (14:10): Against The Wind (1), Ruby’s Profit (2)
- Leg 4 (14:45): JM Jungle (7), Democracy Dilemma (2)
- Leg 5 (15:30): Ruling Court (13)
- Leg 6 (16:15): Valvano (2)
Conclusion
Thank you for following our deep-dive this week; as horse racing data analytics continues to evolve, leveraging insights from extensive datasets remains vital to uncovering hidden value and crafting winning strategies. The 246th Epsom Derby, with its storied legacy since 1780 and global draw of top-tier three-year-olds, exemplifies why precision modelling and historical trends are essential in navigating such a competitive field.
This weekend, World Pool participation will inject unprecedented liquidity into the Tote markets, creating larger dividends and more robust pricing dynamics for Win, Place, and Exotic bets alike. And remember, EquiAnalytix’s suite of analytical tools, available on desktop, iOS, and Android, puts real-time form data, pace projections, and dividend forecasts at your fingertips, empowering you to build smarter bets on the go.
Good luck to everyone this weekend, and we look forward to sharing our post-race breakdowns as soon as the Derby dust settles.
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