Welcome back, new and returning readers, to the EquiAnalytix blog! We’re gearing up for the Irish 2,000 Guineas World Pool meeting at Curragh this Saturday, where nine top-class races promise big fields, high stakes, and plenty of value in the Tote pools. With the extra liquidity of the World Pool, punters can look forward to deeper markets and fatter dividends.
Last weekend our data-driven approach paid off handsomely: we nailed a £11.60 big-priced Swinger dividend and landed another longshot into the places. That kind of result shows exactly why more money in the pool equals more opportunity for savvy punters. And remember, Tote’s Money Back 2nd promotion applies to every UK & IRE World Pool race in 2025—just opt in on the Tote site before you bet to make sure you’re covered.
Over the past 12 months we’ve been relentless in hunting value across Win, Swinger, Exacta and beyond, and it’s paid dividends: up +121 pts to a 1 pt win stake with the Tote (a 51% ROI), and our Exacta plays have returned over £380 at a 204 % ROI when two clear stand-outs emerged. In other words, the data knows where to find the value.
Now it’s time to turn our attention to Curragh’s nine-race card, headlined by the Irish 2,000 Guineas. We’ll break down each contest, highlight the key contenders and dark horses, and show you how to build your bets to get the most from Tote’s pools this weekend. Let’s dive in!
Race 1: 13:20 Curragh Avenuebloodstock.com Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden
We begin the Irish 2,000 Guineas card with a competitive opener, a 2yo contest of the 6 f trip which features mostly newcomers.
Race Analysis
EquiAnalytix Members will note that often the best place to start in these races is the breeding data. The EquiAnalytix breeding data unlocks a whole new world of analysis to punters that often can be overlooked, and interestingly enough this race looks to revolve around the sire Wootton Bassett. Wootton Bassett progeny continue to impress on our figures, with his 2yo offspring especially performing at a very high level. An average EquiAnalytix speed rating of 87 across all his 2yo runners is by far the best on offer in this field, and he is represented by both Aidan O’Brien runners, KANSAS and BRUSSELS. Preference here, however, is for the latter, as despite the former’s racecourse experience, finishing a solid 3rd on debut at Naas 2 weeks ago, the latter has any amount of potential. By Wootton Bassett, out of a dam called Fond Words who herself was a Listed sprint winner during 2015, this horse has the pedigree to be potentially very smart and with Ryan Moore on board, it only further cements that view.
For Tote players, these may be best two to focus on for those exotics bets, with Swinger and Exactas likely to return handsomely on a day of enhanced liquidity.
🎯 Exacta Box: Brussels / Kansas
Race 2: 13:55 Curragh Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Orby Stakes (Listed Race)
Race 2 sees us head into Listed company for the middle-distance Orby Stakes.
Race Analysis
And despite several of these horses boasting ratings well above our benchmark level of 100, it’s incredibly difficult to ignore the figures posted by the Joseph O’Brien-trained TRUSTYOURINSTINCT. This 5yo gelding boasts a serious level of form from his 11 career starts, having recorded ratings of 200 or above on two occasions, 7 of them being above 130 and 3 career victories. But it was his most recent run at the Curragh 19 days ago that needs the closest inspection. That day he finished 2 3/4 lengths behind the very well-regarded Los Angeles, a very respectable effort. But it was the figure he posted of 200 that has really caught the eye, especially as I’d argue that his best form is over the extra 2 furlong 1m 4f trip. Considering this level of form and the EquiAnalytix ratings on offer, he’s incredibly hard to ignore.
Of the rest, for those looking at alternatives and key dangers I would be focussed on the Dermot Weld trained ROMZINA who remains lightly raced and boasts last 3 rating figures of 142, 150 and 168. These are outstanding ratings and on any other day would see her be of firm interest. The Oisin Murphy trained SIEGE OF TROY is interesting on past form, as is the upward trajectory in the form of SEA THE BOSS, but the suspicion is that they will all be fighting it out for the places.
🏆 Back Trustyourinstinct to Win
🤝 Swinger: Trustyourinstinct & Romzina
🎯 Exacta Box: Trustyourinstinct / Romzina
Race 3: 14:30 Curragh Tulfarris Hotel And Golf Resort Handicap (Premier Handicap)
Next, we have an uber-competitive Premier Handicap to tackle, a 1m2 contest that sees a field of 19 go to post.
Race Analysis
Competitive contests like this provide a big challenge to punters, and often you can get lost back-checking the form across such a big field. The advantage we have here is that all our ratings are standardised and therefore comparable across the entire field, which allows us to put a line through many. The issue we have then is that this race leaves a potential group of 4-5 horses that are more than capable of winning. NURBURGRING will be interesting back on the level, and the recent ratings of STAR HARBOUR, CEALLACH and CLOUD SEEKER all warrant consideration.
But the horse the ratings suggest has an outstanding chance is AERONAUTIC again for the O’Brien family. Joseph’s 4yo gelding will need to overcome stall 14 but there should be plenty of time to get out and across, with a key positive being this horse likes to race prominently. Middle distance contests at the Curragh continue to show a 15% positive bias to front-runners and prominent horses, and this will be the key area of our focus. When you then consider the selection boasts figures of 124, 172 and 152 on his last 3 starts in 2024, this horse could have any amount of improvement to come off a mark of 96. The form of his most recent start has been well-documented and this could be your class horse in a handicap.
Given the competitive nature of this race, and the expected tactics on offer, I want to also chance HIMALAYAN HEIGHTS for top jockey Colin Keane. The team continue to operate at a high level of form, with an average EquiAnalytix rating of 97 across the trainer’s runners in the last month, with 65% running to form. And this horse bounced back on reappearance with a commanding victory, earning a solid enough rating of 134. This will need to be improved upon but his clear upward trajectory flags this horse as a clear improver, and his prominent racing style will be helpful on the day.
🤝 Swinger: Aeronautic & Himalayan Heights
🎯 Exacta Box: Aeronautic / Himalayan Height
Race 4: 15:05 Curragh Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes (Group 2)
Race 4 sees us warm up for the Guineas with the 6f Group 2 Greenlands Stakes.
Race Analysis
It’s of course great to see so many “household names” go head to head, none more so than BIG GOSSEY who will no doubt prove popular under conditions he loves. But this race is trappy, and is currently headed by the Aidan O’Brien trained STORM BOY. This horse looks impossible to assess however, given his form across Australia last year is not something we are able to track at EquiAnalytix. Therefore you have to put him in the unknown category, and likely cover him across your bets.
The horse I would suggest doing that with MY MATE ALFIE. This horse again represents the Lyons and Keane combination who could be seeking a double on the afternoon. The horse does however boast impressive form figures, with his last two of 150 and 159 being well up to the task of landing a Group 2 in my opinion. The last day he travelled well and did all his best work late on over an insufficient 5f trip, yet still managed to achieve a huge figure of 159 for a top weight carrying performance. Today he has the rise in class, but this 4yo sprinter is improving and I would not be surprised to see him go very close.
Race 5: 15:40 Curragh Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1)
Next is the feature race of the day, the 2025 Irish 2,000 Guineas.. and I must say that this year’s renewal is outstanding!
Race Analysis
This year’s Guineas features a strong field of 9, which mightn’t sound impressive on paper but once you dive into the data will have you excited. The field is headed by the talking horse from the English Guineas, FIELD OF GOLD. Having been a final straw for supports of Kieran Shoemark, he will this time be assisted by Colin Keane which is eye-catching in itself. This horse disappointed many at Newmarket, having been outpaced at a crucial time by Ruling Court who incidentally was the selection from the EquiAnalytix data, and my concern would be that can leave him vulnerable again here at the Curragh.
So we want to take him, but with who? COSMIC YEAR represents the same connections and will be looking to maintain his 100% record, and interests me with a LTO rating of 155. Oisin Murphy’s mount looks sure to go very close here and I would include him in any exotics plays for the race. But I do want to focus in on two at larger prices that seriously interest me, both OFFICER & HOTAZHELL. The former again represents the master Aidan O’Brien, with the latter being last year’s Futurity Stakes winner at Doncaster for the Harrington team. Focussing in on OFFICER, you can understand why the team hold him in such high regard. Firstly he boasts an outstanding pedigree and the breeding dat supports that, being by Dubawi out of superstar mare Hydrangea who herself reached a BHA mark of 119. This horse has shown clear improvement in each of his 3 career starts, most notably putting a mediocre reappearance behind him when winning 19 days ago. That day he earned a figure of 131 and whilst that doesn’t stand up to several of these, his breeding suggests he has so much more to give and the price interests us massively. That same comment can also be said for HOTAZHELL who currently sits around the 8/1 mark at the time of writing. That just looks wrong for a Futurity winner who did nothing but improve as a 2yo. Last 3 recorded figures of 146, 207 and 161 cement this horse as potentially very high quality, as does his BHA mark of 117, only 3lbs inferior to FIELD OF GOLD who has already ran twice this season. He is bred to improve and connections have had to remain patient, but I would suggest that patience can be rewarded here.
🤝 Swinger: Officer & Hotazhell
🎯 Trifecta Box: Field Of Gold / Officer / Hotazhell
Race 6: 16:15 Curragh QuinnBet Emerald Mile Handicap (Premier Handicap)
In the aftermath of the Guineas we are faced with another Premier Handicap, this time the Emerald Mile where we have a field of 19 to assess.
Race Analysis
Again this looks about as competitive as they come and so you will have to forgive the data for selecting two to add to your selections on the afternoon. The first is AKECHETA for rider Billy Lee who just continues to impress me every time I watch him ride. This 5yo grey mare has been super consistent, with form figures of 3244-2 across her last 5 runs, supported by a career best rating last time of 176. That figure in isolation will always warrant the upmost respect, but a small bit of insight for you is that these eye-catching ratings are far more powerful when a horse hasn’t won. Often times that shows you a horse has posted a very impressive performance, yet “bumped into one”. And that can often mean the handicapper can be kinder which I believe is what has happened here. The selection runs off only a 3lb higher mark for a career best and with conditions to suit, I think she can back up that figure of 176.
The second dart in a wide open contest goes to Ryan Moore’s ride SKUKUZA. This Ed Dunlop trained horse is only a clear upward trajectory from a ratings perspective despite only recording mediocre finish positions of 5th and 6th. However, these have come in top handicaps and the ratings recorded of 166 and 174 are outstanding. These alone give this horse a big chance and perhaps the jockey booking here might just give him the edge to go several places better this time round.
🎯 Exacta Box: Akecheta / Skukuza
Race 7: 16:50 Curragh QuinnBet Handicap
For race 7 we are tasked with yet another big field handicap, this time over the 7f trip.
Race Analysis
For this we want to dive straight into two horses that I believe need serious consideration for any variety of exotic of bet on the day. The first is MARAKESH for the Henry De Bromhead team, and the second is PORT LOUIS for Noel Meade. Starting with the former, he represents a yard that has hit top form at an unusual time in the season, but could well mean there is still value to be had in his runners. Operating at an average EquiAnalytix rating of 106, the De Bromhead team are clearly in outstanding form over both codes. He is represented here by a horse whose last time out performance earned a figure of 152, the equal best in this field. That effort came at a time where the stable was banging the door, and hence can be upgraded further, and the same mark of 80 looks there to be exploited.
The second selection PORT LOUIS has a different profile all together, having won on his last start, ending a disappointing period of form. He dropped to a mark of 70 on his last start, and won convincingly at Cork, earning a 4lb rise. But the rating achieved that day of 152 is equal to the best in this field and therefore I believe the handicapper might have let him off lightly!
🤝 Swinger: Marakesh & Port Louis
🎯 Exacta Box: Marakesh / Port Louis
Race 8: 17:25 Curragh Revamp Restoration And Conservation Handicap
Our penultimate contest sees us stay over the 7f trip for another Curragh handicap.
Race Analysis
The analysis for this race will be shorter as many of these have unexposed profiles and the ratings really only have one clear standout. That horse is JAGGED EDGE for the Dermot Weld team. Chris Hayes takes the ride on this twice raced horse, who has shown clear improvement from his first to second start. Winning last time at Cork 35 days ago earned this horse a standout figure of 136 which on all known form thus far should be enough to win this contest. He does have a mark of 90 to contend with but he is lightly raced, and boasts a very impressive set of breeding data figures being by top sire Blue Point, out of a mare called Jaega who herself climbed to a mark of 105!
Race 9: 17:55 Curragh Finlay Volvo Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden
We close what has been a very busy 9-race card with a 1m2f maiden contest, full of some really nicely bred animals.
Race Analysis
Attention will of course be placed on PROPOSE who represents a team that may well end up any amount of winners on the afternoon. This horse improved to finish 2nd this season, having only mustered 7th on debut as a 2yo. That place effort came 57 days ago at Dundalk over the extended 1m 2f trip, a respectable run earning a rating of 121. Being by Frankel out of Showcasing mare, this horse is certainly bred to improve and will no doubt prove popular in the lucky last. However there is another Frankel offspring that I feel is being under-appreciated by the market. VALOROUS POWER represents the Joseph O’Brien stable his Frankel colt fascinates me. Sometimes in racing you have those moments where you see something during a race that just sticks with you. And for this horse, you have to rewind back 11 days to his debut at Killarney. That day he was largely unpopular in the market at 16/1, but just bundles of promise. He was short of room on a tight track several times, but still made good progress late on under kind handling. He will have learned plenty for that experience and the Curragh should prove far better for this galloping horse. His pedigree needs no introduction and incidentally his debut rating of 125 is the best on offer!
🎯 Exacta Box: Propose / Valorous Power
🎲 Tote Placepot – Curragh (Races 1–6)
Select at least one horse to place in each of the opening six races at the Irish 2,000 Guineas World Pool card:
- Leg 1 (13:20): Brussels (1)
- Leg 2 (13:55): TrustYourInstinct (1)
- Leg 3 (14:30): Aeronautic (3), Himalayan Heights (6)
- Leg 4 (15:05): My Mate Alfie (6)
- Leg 5 (15:40): Officer (6), Hotazhell (5)
- Leg 6 (16:15): Akecheta (7), Skukuza (5)
Conclusion
As always, I hope you have enjoyed the content and that the data analysis on show has shown you a different angle to tackling these competitive races! Remember, the data here plus so much more is available via our desktop, iOS or Android applications.
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