Introduction
Welcome to the first of our National Hunt jumps blogs for the 2025-26 season, brought to you in partnership with Tote UK. Throughout the season we’ll be delivering in-depth guides and analysis for all the major jumps meetings. First up is the eagerly anticipated three-day fixture at Cheltenham (14-16 November), which culminates in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on the Saturday. Widely regarded as one of the essential kick-offs to the jumps campaign, Friday’s action saw some impressive performances despite what became attritional conditions. The times and the EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings from yesterday reflect a challenging surface, and today looks set to be much the same!
With heavy rain arriving overnight, the course at Cheltenham has been hit hard; the going has been officially declared “soft” after more than 20mm of rain tested the drainage, and I would anticipate that it’s just a matter of time before we see closer to “heavy” in the going description. It will be a day for those battle-hardened horses, certainly not for the faint-hearted!
The implications for finding winners under these conditions are significant. On a softened surface, stamina and resilience will matter more than ever; horses that relish heavy ground or have shown the ability to cope when the track is cut up will have a clear edge. Tactical speed from the front may be harder to maintain, meaning late-running types and those with proven handling of rain-affected ground are especially worth watching, something we will be looking out for in our data!
Don’t forget – the Tote’s Money Back 2nd offer is active for this meeting, giving you that extra layer of cover when margins are tighter than ever under extreme conditions.
Race 1: 12:35 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race)
A Grade 2 juvenile hurdle over the 2m87y trip for 3-year-olds, providing an early-season test for Triumph Trial prospects on soft ground.
Race Analysis
We get underway here for the Paddy Power meeting with the usual JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial, a race that can often throw up important clues for the big race in March. At the time of writing, it’s of course pleasing to see such a competitive field going to post, as you can often find these races cut up a little, especially as the ground turns extreme. Providing they remain in, we have what looks to be a cracker on paper. Like any race, the best place to start is our forward-looking Total Performance Ratings (TPR), which act as our amalgamated score for each horse in the race. Clearly, there is a horse that stands out on that metric, despite being largely unfancied in the early betting. GALACTIQUE has done nothing wrong over hurdles for Gary and Josh Moore this season, having won twice, and finished second once from just three starts. Of course, all three of these performances were posted at Fontwell, and so this strikes as a very big step up in grade, but the horse arrives in top form and importantly has jumping experience on his side which can prove so important in these juvenile contests. The question is, why is he so high on the TPR? That comes from his three hurdle performances, which earned ratings of 140, 131 and 156 respectively… three very good ratings in isolation, topping this field, and also indicating that the market might just be discounting him too much.
Regular readers will understand the importance we place on the EquiAnalytix Breeding data, especially in novice races where the form data can be very thin. Well, it’s another tick in the box for GALACTIQUE as his sire, Galiway, produces horses that clearly handle the soft ground very well, with an average rating of 93, topping this field. At the time of writing, our second selection PARCHMENT has just been declared a non-runner… hopefully not the first of many!
Of the others, despite the market speaking favourably for the Gavin Cromwell trained SECRET FORCE, I just cannot support that from the data in front of me, and he could be worth taking on, the same can be said for Dan Skelton’s PRECIOUS MAN who is equally popular, and you would be foolish to rule out any James Owen hurdle debutant with the form of his stable right now!
Race 2: 13:10 Debenhams Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
A Class 3 amateur riders’ handicap chase over 3m1f for 4yo+ chasers, where stamina and jumping will be well tested on soft ground.
Race Analysis
Next up is what can only be described as a gruelling extended 3m contest, where stamina is going to be needed in bundles here to even complete the course, let alone win! A quick glance below will show you that this race looks particularly poor on paper, with not many raw speed ratings above our benchmark level of 100, indicating a below-par contest. But that said, it does allow us to rule several of these out and stick with just a handful of horses, with some needing a serious leap of faith.
I say that because despite horses such as AUREA FORTUNA and HERAKLES WESTWOOD looking solid enough on paper, they are hardly the standouts that the market suggests. The latter has plenty of weight to carry, the same being said for both JUBILEE EXPRESS and CHAMBARD, and so despite them having more class than most, that welter burden will take its toll in conditions today, and each of their ratings do not suggest they are up to that task. So then you are left scratching around several big-priced horses, and I think we have to chance HUNG JURY here for the Keighley team. Now a 10yo, this horse made a satisfactory return to Cheltenham last month, when staying on into 8th. The handicapper has dropped him 2lb for that effort, and in truth his rating that day of 116 is certainly not bad in the context of today’s opposition. What this horse may now lack in class, he makes up for in stamina – having won a 4m Hunter Chase here at Cheltenham in May. Yes, he will need to step up under rules but there are not many that will keep galloping like him and he gets the services of top amateur James King here.
Given the ratings here, I do also want to chance a horse that we might just be catching at the right moment. Christian Williams’ PLANNED PARADISE has been something of an enigma in the EquiAnalytix data, where he seemingly backs up a good performance with a bad one, and vice versa, a nightmare when studying our form data. Well today he arrives off a measly rating of 59, also recorded last month in the same race as the first selection. The difference is that this horse clearly needed that run, will have also found that surface on the quick side and now returns to his last winning mark of 107. Premium Dashboard users will be able to see this horse’s full history, and in there you see a horse that last season was recording ratings in the high 150s and above, something most of this field have never been able to achieve. It’s a leap of faith to assume he returns to form here, but conditions will hold no excuses and he carries a very handy light weight.
Race 3: 13:45 Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The November) (GBB)
A Grade 2 novices’ chase over 1m7f199y for 4yo+ novices, acting as an early Arkle trial where slick jumping on soft ground will be crucial.
Race Analysis
The Arkle Trial is up next and I think this is an intriguing renewal. The Skeltons’ BE AWARE is proving very popular so far in the early trading, and I can understand that given he made a good impression on chase debut 16 days ago at Stratford. He jumped well, travelled well and put the race to bed as would be expected for this highly regarded hurdler from last season. A rating of just 124 for that effort would temper my enthusiasm though, and despite his sire, Martaline, showing up well on the breeding data for progeny running over fences (70), there is a horse that trumps him here.
That horse is the James Owen trained BURDETT ROAD. I would say it would surprise many to see this horse go over fences given his exploits on the flat, but James and team just excel with transitioning these horses, and scanning to the breeding data, you will see his sire, Muhaarar, produces the best progeny over fences in this field… an impressive feat for a new NH sire. Then when looking at the raw form data, the selection continues to stand out. Being the highest-rated horse in this race, off 149, it’s not a huge surprise to see that his recent form ratings are a clear standout – with a huge last-time-out figure of 188 clearly setting the standard. That alone would encourage me to chance this horse on chase debut at current odds of 7/1, a price that more than reflects any risk in his jumping in my opinion.
Race 4: 14:20 Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (In Memory Of Edward O’Grady) (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
A Premier handicap chase over 2m4f44y for 4yo+ chasers, the feature Class 1 contest of the afternoon and a deep, competitive Gold Cup on soft ground.
Race Analysis
It’s now time for the feature race, the 2025 Paddy Power Gold Cup. The first of the iconic 2m 4f handicap chase series at Cheltenham, and despite tough conditions, this looks set to be a cracker! A strong field goes to post and it’s great to see so many outstanding ratings on display. Last year’s hero, IL RIDOTO, looks to go back-to-back for the Nicholls team, who will be encouraged after getting on the board yesterday with an exciting novice hurdler. This horse sits second on the TPR figures and for good reason, he has posted solid form figures, the yard are in good form and his breeding is very supportive. The issue? Well there are just horses in here that arrive with much better form figures, and there are two in particular that have posted very eye-catching ratings.
The first is PANIC ATTACK, representing the in-form Skelton team. The choice of Harry Skelton, this horse only ran over fences once last season, but that was when landing a valuable contest at Windsor’s new track. That day she jumped well, travelled even better and looked to be well ahead of her mark of 125. Today she will need to contend with a 10lb rise to 135, but the manner of that previous victory, which earned her an eye-watering rating of 190, suggests she can keep improving. Conditions will suit this daughter of Canford Cliffs very well and she looks about as solid as they come in such a competitive race.
Our second selection here has begun to attract some market support, which I would imagine has come from those following the simple principle of “back Venetia’s in the mud!”. Here we are referring to HUNTER LEGEND who will look to continue his rapid improvement, having won three times over fences last season, each on soft going, and recorded ratings of 106, 139 and 198. That latter effort is outstanding in isolation, and that alone brings him right into this contest. It is very difficult to split the two here, and hence I would not put anyone off utilising the Tote Swinger market here when you would need both to finish in the top 3!
Race 5: 14:55 From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
A Class 2 handicap hurdle over 2m7f208y for 4yo+ hurdlers, a staying contest where proven soft-ground stamina should be a major asset.
Race Analysis
Race 5 is one of those contests where you can study the data below in any direction or angle you like, but you will still arrive at the obvious, SUPREMELY WEST. I was there personally for Cheltenham’s October meeting and I recall the data was very sweet on this horse’s chances. That day, usual pilot Harry Skelton held the horse up for a late challenge but it all just seemed to play out too quickly, getting going a little late on ground that was very quick. A move to today’s tougher conditions could hold the key here, as do recent ratings which are far above the rest of the field, and barring any mishap this horse looks a solid favourite.
Race 6: 15:30 Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle
A Class 3 intermediate handicap hurdle over 2m5f for 3yo+ hurdlers, bringing together some progressive types stepping into a tougher test on soft ground.
Race Analysis
I will be the first to hold my hands up here and say that this race is very difficult from a data perspective. You have the powerful combination of Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen (by the way, what a ride from him yesterday!) with KAP BOY who has solid credentials on recent figures, you have FRENCH SHIP who was successful here last month albeit on very different ground, and you have a bunch of other horses who you would argue don’t have the same sort of upward profile on recent figures. That’s all bar the selection, JURANCON who I have sided with here as despite his three form figures being a touch below the two aforementioned horses, he boasts a pedigree and record that is tailor-made for these tough conditions. This horse has never finished outside the top two – not often you find a horse that can equal Jonbon’s record – and has won five times in total, three of which were on soft and one on heavy. Clearly that is going to prove important today, and equally I wouldn’t knock his recent form figures. Ratings of 136, 159 and 125 are very solid, and importantly consistent. What will be important is how ready this horse is, having been off the track for 259 days.
Race 7: 16:00 Cheltenham Guardians Safeguarding Team Mares’ Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)
A Listed mares’ National Hunt Flat race over 2m87y for 4–5-year-olds, an informative bumper where unexposed mares must handle testing soft conditions.
Race Analysis
Regular readers of my content will know that I absolutely love a bumper (National Hunt Flat Race), especially those run at Cheltenham. Premium Dashboard users last month were rewarded at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting with a bumper winner in the last at a nice price, and today we look to do something similar. What makes these races so fascinating to me is that the form data is incredibly thin. And that often means you have to turn to a balance between recent form figures, and of course the pedigrees of these horses.
And with that, that will be our focus when tackling this race, as despite several of these having featured on a racecourse before, there are not many eye-catching figures. The exception there is EDITH PELHAM who again represents the Burke and O’Brien combination, and arrives here having been successful on rules debut at Aintree last month. That day she proved tough in the closing stages, and earned a standout rating of 133. That alone makes her of clear interest here, with improvement likely to come. It is, however, an identical figure to that of Ben Pauling’s ROCK SENSATION, so I would not be ruling that horse out of your Exotics bets here.
But there are two very big-priced horses that I need to mention from a data perspective. I understand several will see three bolded horses in this race and question it, but at the prices it makes sense and the data here looks clear. Both POLLYANNAS DREAM & AMINA are standouts on our breeding data when looking at progeny figures from bumper contests. Represented by sires My Dream Boat and Zarak respectively, they are impossible to split, and their pedigrees suggest they will both improve with time, and with conditions suiting both, watch them at huge prices!
🎲 Tote Placepot – Cheltenham November Meeting (Paddy Power Gold Cup Day) – First 6 Races
- Leg 1 (12:35): Galactique (3), One Horse Town (9)
- Leg 2 (13:10): Hung Jury (10), Planned Paradise (18)
- Leg 3 (13:45): Burdett Road (4)
- Leg 4 (14:20): Panic Attack (10), Hunter Legend (14)
- Leg 5 (14:55): Supremely West (3)
- Leg 6 (15:30): Jurancon (3)
It’s a typically tricky Cheltenham Placepot in testing ground, but this perm leans into the core EquiAnalytix angles from today’s analysis: forward-looking Total Performance Ratings, proven soft-ground stamina, and breeding lines that suggest these horses will go through the mud when others cry enough.
🃏 Play the Cheltenham Placepot🃏 Play the Ascot Placepot
📋 Selection Recap
Here are today’s bold selections across the 7 races on Paddy Power Gold Cup Day at Cheltenham:
- Race 1 (12:35): Galactique (3)
- Race 2 (13:10): Hung Jury (10), Planned Paradise (18)
- Race 3 (13:45): Burdett Road (4)
- Race 4 (14:20): Panic Attack (10), Hunter Legend (14)
- Race 5 (14:55): Supremely West (3)
- Race 6 (15:30): Jurancon (3)
- Race 7 (16:00): Edith Pelham (4), Pollyannas Dream (13), Amina (1)
These are the runners flagged in today’s write-ups as offering the strongest data case via EquiAnalytix Total Performance Ratings, soft-ground breeding profiles, and performance on similarly testing surfaces. Use them as the backbone for your Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta and, of course, Tote Placepot plays.
Conclusion
That wraps up our coverage of Paddy Power Gold Cup Day at Cheltenham — a card where stamina, jumping and sheer toughness mattered every bit as much as class.
Yesterday’s times and EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings told us the ground was already bordering on attritional, and today followed suit. The approach never changes, though: trust the numbers, respect the conditions, and lean into those profiles that are built for a slog up the hill rather than a sharp turn of foot on good ground.
Through our partnership with Tote UK, we’ll be back throughout the jumps season with more data-driven insights, Placepot perms and Money Back 2nd angles as the trail winds from Cheltenham to all the key meetings on the road to March. Until then, stay disciplined, stay data-led, and keep making the most of the edge.
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