Introduction
Happy New Year! Welcome to 2026 – and what better way to kick off the new racing year than with a quality card at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. We hope you had a brilliant festive period, and we’re delighted to have you here for another EquiAnalytix race guide.
For anyone new to these blogs, we partner with the Tote to bring you data-led previews for the biggest meetings on the calendar. Our aim is simple: use the EquiAnalytix ratings, pace maps and historical insights to highlight the key contenders for each race.
🏇 Boxing Day Recap – A Huge Kempton Success
Fresh off a standout Boxing Day at Kempton Park, EquiAnalytix turns its focus to today’s Cheltenham card – but first, a quick look back at how the data performed.
Our Boxing Day analysis delivered 4 advised winners, combining for a massive 172/1 four-fold for those adding the selections to a Tote Multiple:
- Barlovento (4/1)
- Sir Gino (4/7)
- The Jukebox Man (7/1)
- Klub De Reve (7/4)
Exotic pool players were also rewarded, with Swinger dividends landed in two races – Sir Gino / Rebaud and The Jukebox Man / Gaelic Warrior.
Best of all, selections can be added straight to your betslip from these blogs using the Build a Bet buttons below each race – making it quick and easy to follow the analysis into the Tote pools.
Now let’s turn our attention to Cheltenham’s New Year’s Day card, where we’ll apply the same approach – Total Performance Ratings, speed figures, pace and the profiles that suit each race – to find the value across today’s seven races.
Race 1: 12:15 Enquire About The Cheltenham Bloodstock Club Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
A Class 2 maiden hurdle over 2m4f56y, for 4yo+, (8-runner field).
Race Analysis
The New Year’s Day card at Cheltenham opens with a competitive 2m4f maiden hurdle that serves as an excellent introduction to our data-driven methodology. At the heart of our analysis sits the TPR (Total Performance Rating) – a machine learning-driven, forward-looking metric that synthesises a horse’s recent form, track and distance aptitude, going preferences, and breeding into a single predictive number. The proof is in the results: horses ranked in the top three on TPR win approximately 55% of all races across the UK and Ireland, while the top four account for around 67%. It’s a powerful filter that immediately separates genuine contenders from hopeful also-rans.
In this eight-runner field, that filter works decisively. JUST GOLDEN (TPR 68), KIWI RUSH (TPR 58) and STEP AHEAD (TPR 55) collectively command 75% of the standardised probability share, leaving precious little room for the remainder. Unpicking the merits of this trio requires close attention to their form profiles – the T-1 through T-4 figures representing their last four runs, adjusted for class – and the trainer/jockey momentum metrics that can provide crucial edge.
STEP AHEAD makes the most compelling case when the full picture is assembled. Kim Bailey’s operation is running exceptionally hot – a TrainerTPR of 101 over the past month against a 12-month average of 75 represents one of the standout yard momentum figures on the entire card. When a trainer’s monthly figure exceeds their annual baseline by this margin, it signals horses arriving in peak condition. The horse’s T-3 of 194 from a bumper second at Haydock last May towers above anything else in this field – that’s a class-adjusted figure that reflects serious ability despite chasing home the winner. His T-2 of 116 when third in a strong Ascot bumper adds further substance. The hurdles debut at Warwick 21 days ago yielded a T-1 of 88 when second, with the comment noting he was “not fluent” at both the seventh and last – greenness that should tighten with experience. His GoingTPR of 194 confirms a strong affinity for better ground, and with Cheltenham riding good today, conditions suit.
JUST GOLDEN commands the highest TPR rating in the field at 66 and arrives with the Skelton yard firing (92 monthly vs 78 annual). His T-1 of 126 at Newcastle is the best last-time-out figure in the race, but the form comment is less flattering: he “took keen hold” and “lost ground after four out” before staying on for third. His T-4 of 152 from a bumper second at Hereford shows talent, but that trails STEP AHEAD’s Haydock figure of 194. The T-2 of 79 at Uttoxeter, beaten at odds-on when “not fluent two out” and showing “no extra run-in”, raises questions about his attitude. Harry Skelton’s booking demands respect – his JockeyTPR of 97 this month versus 82 annually confirms excellent form – but at likely shorter odds, the value lies elsewhere.
KIWI RUSH posts the most consistent sequence – T-1 through T-4 reading 94, 91, 95 and 112 – which speaks to reliability rather than brilliance. Harry Derham is enjoying an excellent month (92 vs 79 over the last year) and Jonathan Burke likewise (90 vs 76), but fourth at Newbury last time, when he “pressed leader two out” before making a “mistake” at the last, suggests he may lack the gears to win at this level. A place seems his ceiling.
WALK TALL can be dismissed on recent evidence despite the Tizzard yard running above baseline. His T-1 of 39 at Ascot and T-2 of 0 when tailed off at Newbury tell their own story. The remainder – CANT RESIST IT, HANDIN MANYPOCKETS, MINELLA MISSION and NEON DREAM – are either unraced over hurdles or hopelessly outclassed, their combined TPR of just 4 speaking volumes.
The selection is STEP AHEAD. The Kim Bailey yard is in the form of its season, the horse posted the highest class-adjusted figure in the field from his bumper career, and the ground conditions play directly to his strengths. Improvement from that hurdles debut looks assured. KIWI RUSH, with his consistency and in-form connections, is the each-way alternative for those wanting a saver.
Race 2: 12:50 Ellenborough Park Hotel ‘Chasing Excellence’ Novices’ Chase (GBB Race)
A Class 2 novices’ chase over 2m4f127y, for 5yo+, (5-runner field).
Race Analysis
A small but select field of five lines up for this 2m4f novice chase, and the TPR ratings point to a clear two-horse affair. REGENTS STROLL and CALIFET EN VOL share top billing on TPR 26, together accounting for 64% of the standardised probability share. The remaining trio – KNIGHT OF ALLEN (16), EAGLE FANG (8) and MIAMI MAGIC (5) – are left to scrap for minor honours unless something goes amiss with the principals.
REGENTS STROLL looks one of the stronger propositions on the card. Paul Nicholls’ charge arrives in cracking form, his last run figure of 146 from a comfortable Wincanton success 16 days ago the best in the field by some margin. That followed a figure of 143 when third at Newbury, where he “took keen hold”, “pulled hard” and “went further clear” before being caught late – the form comment suggesting a horse who overdoes things in front but has clear ability. His distance figure of 128 confirms an aptitude for this trip, and the Nicholls yard is operating above its 12-month baseline (95 this month vs 81 annually). Harry Cobden, likewise in good nick (84 vs 75), takes the ride.
One of the unique features of our EquiAnalytix platform is how we analyse breeding data. Rather than focusing on simple strike rates or winner counts, we calculate the average speed figure achieved by all of a sire’s progeny under different conditions – trip, going, race type. In this context, REGENTS STROLL’s sire progeny figure for this race type stands at 67, comfortably the highest in the field. By Walk In The Park, whose progeny have excelled in novice chase company, this adds another layer of confidence to an already compelling case.
CALIFET EN VOL is the obvious danger and brings valuable course experience, having finished second here at the December meeting with a last run figure of 100. The form comment from that run is instructive: “not fluent four out”, “mistake two out”, yet still “kept on” for second. His third-last run of 188 from a Huntingdon hurdles win last February is the highest single figure in this field, demonstrating a ceiling that matches REGENTS STROLL. Nicky Henderson’s operation is ticking along nicely (91 vs 79 on the trainer metrics) and Nico de Boinville is riding with real confidence, his monthly figure of 97 well above his annual average of 85. The concern is that his jumping remains a work in progress over fences – errors at the fourth, second-last and in previous chase starts suggest he may gift ground to a slicker rival.
KNIGHT OF ALLEN won at Newbury last time (figure of 87) but the comment notes the “jockey lost iron briefly” during the race, and his overall figures lack the class of the front two. Jane Williams’ yard is running well above baseline (97 vs 83), but this looks a step up in grade. EAGLE FANG has a respectable last run figure of 106 from a Thurles chase win but that came in weaker Irish company, and his figures plateau around the 100 mark. MIAMI MAGIC’s penultimate run of just 27 at Uttoxeter, where he “didn’t jump with fluency” and was “tailed off”, rules him out despite Stuart Edmunds’ yard running exceptionally hot (117 vs 75).
Trading at around 1.83 at the time of writing, REGENTS STROLL has clearly been well found by the market – but with good reason. His recent chase form is superior, his figures are the most consistent at a high level (146, 143, 121), and the breeding profile points firmly in his direction. He’s a front-runner who will try to stretch CALIFET EN VOL’s suspect jumping, and that tactical edge could prove decisive.
Race 3: 13:25 Betfair Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
A Class 2 handicap chase over 3m1f56y, for 5yo+ rated 0-150, (8-runner field).
Race Analysis
A wide-open renewal of this 3m1f handicap chase, with KATATE DORI heading the market at 10/3 despite figures that don’t quite justify favouritism. HERAKLES WESTWOOD leads on TPR with a rating of 50, commanding 27% of the probability share, but this is a race where the standout statistical pick may not be the right answer.
HERAKLES WESTWOOD has been knocking on the door of late. His last run figure of 143 when fourth here at Cheltenham’s December meeting reads well, and his penultimate effort of 111 when second at the November meeting adds further substance. Warren Greatrex’s yard is ticking along nicely (98 vs 82 on the trainer metrics) and James Bowen continues to ride with confidence (85 vs 76). The concern is ground. With Cheltenham riding on the quick side today, his profile raises questions – his going figure sits at zero, with all his best efforts coming on soft or heavy. That could blunt his finishing effort when push comes to shove.
KATATE DORI’s position at the head of the market looks more about stable form than individual merit. Sam Thomas is enjoying an exceptional run (114 vs 83) and jockey Dylan Johnston is riding out of his skin (100 vs 73), but this horse’s recent figures don’t inspire confidence. A last run of 77 at Newbury, where he made “no impression from two out”, and 90 when weakening at Aintree suggest he may be one to take on. He was also pulled up at last year’s Festival.
The one flying under the radar is JASMIN DE GRUGY. Regular readers will know we’ve long championed Masked Marvel as a sire of chasers, and the data continues to support that view. His sire progeny figure for this race type stands at 86 – comfortably the highest in the field – while his sire going figure of 78 adds further confidence. This is exactly the profile we look for. The horse himself ran a huge race at the Punchestown Festival last season, posting a figure of 127 when second. His previous two runs at Newbury yielded 138 and 135, the latter a victory. The seasonal return of 53 at Newcastle was disappointing, but the soft ground that day wouldn’t have suited – his going figure of 125 confirms a strong preference for a better surface. With Cheltenham riding good today, conditions look ideal. Anthony Honeyball’s yard is running hot (96 vs 73), Rex Dingle is in fine form (87 vs 61), and from just 126 he looks attractively weighted.
EXCELLO brings interesting claims with a penultimate figure of 161 at Aintree, but flopped last time (figure of 0) when the trainer reported he “bled from one nostril”. DOES HE KNOW won nicely at Haydock (last run figure of 138) but his only Cheltenham run produced 89 when hitting “not fluent” at the ninth and making a “mistake” four out. INCH HOUSE has been pulled up in three of his last four starts and looks one to avoid despite his useful Cheltenham track figure of 146. NEW ORDER and SHANNON ROYALE appear outclassed.
JASMIN DE GRUGY makes the most appeal at likely double-figure odds. The breeding screams chaser, the ground is in his favour, the yard is flying, and he’s potentially well treated. HERAKLES WESTWOOD and DOES HE KNOW are the obvious dangers if the ground rides softer than anticipated.
Race 4: 14:00 Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
A Class 1 premier handicap chase over 2m4f127y, for 5yo+, (9-runner field).
Race Analysis
This Premier Handicap over 2m4f looks fiendishly competitive, with the market struggling to separate the principals. RISKINTHEGROUND leads on TPR with a rating of 51 and commands 21% of the probability share, but there are several with claims and the race may hinge on tactics as much as ability.
Users of the EquiAnalytix dashboard will note an interesting dynamic in our pace maps. GLENGOULY, TWINJETS, MATATA and JUNGLE BOOGIE all like to race prominently, and the risk today is that they turn this into a burn-up. The track bias data suggests front-runners enjoy an actual-to-expected winner ratio of 2x on quick ground at Cheltenham (1.48 on standard ground), so clearly there is a strong in-running bias for those who get an easy lead. But with this many pace-forcers, that scenario looks unlikely – somebody is going to have to give, and those sitting off the tempo could benefit.
That brings us to RISKINTHEGROUND. We selected this horse as a live outsider for the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury last time, and despite finishing ninth he ran better than the bare result suggests. He weakened from the last, posting a figure of 73 – but crucially that was over 3m1f, a trip that now looks beyond him. Drop back to 2m4f and the picture changes dramatically. His penultimate figure of 165 at Newton Abbot, third-last of 149 at Market Rasen, and fourth-last of 152 at Sandown show a horse operating at a high level over shorter. He won at this meeting in April (figure of 120), his going figure of 116 confirms he’ll handle today’s surface, and his track figure of 104 adds further confidence. Dan Skelton’s yard is humming (91 vs 79) and Harry Skelton continues in excellent form (97 vs 83). From a mark of 145, he looks the most likely winner if the pace unfolds as expected.
MATATA is the fascinating alternative. He’s dropping significantly in class having contested the Shloer and the two-mile Champion Chase trials, and his last run figure of 178 at Kelso is comfortably the highest in this field. The concern is that run came over just 2m1f, and his two Cheltenham efforts this season yielded figures of just 73 and 113. His going figure of 125 and track figure of 123 suggest the venue won’t be an issue, but he’s yet to prove he’s as effective here as elsewhere. Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride for a yard operating slightly above baseline (83 vs 81).
TWINJETS is popular in the market seeking a hat-trick for Paul Nicholls, but questions remain. His last run figure of 119 at Newbury was solid rather than spectacular, he faces a significant hike in the weights, and his going figure of just 59 suggests the quicker ground today may not suit. The Nicholls/Cobden combination (95 vs 81 and 84 vs 75 respectively) demands respect, but at a short price he may be vulnerable.
GLENGOULY won over course and distance 19 days ago (figure of 125) but his going figure of just 21 is a major concern on today’s surface – he’s a soft ground horse tackling good. IL RIDOTO has figures of 80 and 89 from two runs at this track this season and looks held. JUNGLE BOOGIE returns from 294 days off after being pulled up here in March. GRANDEUR DAME, MOON DORANGE and JUST OVER LAND can all be ruled out on recent form.
A tricky puzzle, but RISKINTHEGROUND gets the vote with MATATA the alternative for those who want to side with the class angle.
Race 5: 14:35 Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race)
A Grade 2 hurdle over 2m4f56y, for 5yo+, (6-runner field).
Race Analysis
The Relkeel Hurdle looks a match between KABRAL DU MATHAN and KAMSINAS based on their most recent efforts, with the market firmly in favour of the former. Trading at around 1.57 at the time of writing, Dan Skelton’s charge has clearly impressed punters with his Haydock success last month.
KABRAL DU MATHAN does bring the strongest form on paper. His last run figure of 203 when winning at Haydock was visually impressive – “clear two out, readily” notes the comment – and he arrives with excellent supporting figures of 121, 119 and 161 from his previous three starts. The Skelton operation continues to fire (91 vs 79 on the trainer metrics) and Harry Skelton’s monthly figure of 97 against an annual average of 83 confirms he’s riding at the top of his game. The slight concern is that this represents his first start at Cheltenham and his first attempt at this trip – the unknown of how he’ll handle the unique demands of the track means some caution is warranted at the price.
Interestingly, KAMSINAS posted an almost identical last run figure of 204 at Southwell – yet he was beaten that day and is a fraction of the price. That effort came over fences and he was “headed before the fourteenth” before being outpaced, but the underlying figure suggests he’s operating at a similar level to the favourite. His going figure of 91 confirms he’ll handle today’s surface, his track figure of 74 shows Cheltenham experience, and Jonathan Burke is riding with confidence (88 vs 76). Connections were weighing up this race against the handicap later on the card – keep that in mind, as his absence from the later contest makes our selection there all the more interesting. At a double-figure price, he looks the value play for those wanting to take on the favourite.
LUCKY PLACE leads on TPR with a rating of 76 but his recent figures don’t inspire confidence. Efforts of 78 and 81 from his last two chase starts are modest, and while he won this meeting’s equivalent last New Year’s Day, that only yielded a figure of 89. THE REAL WHACKER brings solid figures (130, 161, 149) but returns from 61 days off and hasn’t convinced over fences this season. GOWEL ROAD posted 124 here last time but that came on soft ground, and his going figure of 112 on better surfaces raises questions. JINGKO BLUE’s last run of 119 was fair, but he’s been off 40 days and his form is better over fences.
KABRAL DU MATHAN looks the most likely winner, but the price offers little margin for error. Those looking for value should consider KAMSINAS at the odds – the last run figures are virtually identical, and at a much bigger price he represents the each-way play.
Race 6: 15:10 Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
A Class 2 handicap hurdle over 2m7f213y, for 4yo+, (7-runner field).
Race Analysis
This 2m7f handicap hurdle looks an excellent opportunity for ACE OF SPADES, whose presence here is made all the more interesting by what didn’t happen in the previous race. Connections were weighing up KAMSINAS for this contest, but ultimately opted to run that horse in the Relkeel instead – leaving ACE OF SPADES as the owner’s representative here. That decision tells its own story.
SPIKE JONES marginally leads on TPR with 27 against ACE OF SPADES’ 24, but the raw figures paint a different picture. The selection’s last four runs read 125, 140, 150 and 141 – a remarkably consistent sequence at a high level. He won at Aintree in October (140), ran a fine second at Ayr in April (150), and his most recent fourth at Haydock (125) is solid. Dan Skelton’s operation continues in fine form (91 vs 79 on the trainer metrics) and Harry Skelton remains in excellent nick (97 vs 83). His going figure of 85 confirms he’ll handle today’s surface, and from a mark of just 130 he looks potentially well treated.
SPIKE JONES is the obvious danger. His penultimate figure of 148 at Lingfield catches the eye, and he ran well here 20 days ago when posting 105 for third. Samuel Drinkwater’s yard is running well above baseline (84 vs 63), and the claimer Benjamin Macey’s monthly figure of 78 against an annual average of 64 suggests he’s in decent form. The concern is consistency – figures of 105, 148, 69 and 97 across his last four suggest a horse who can blow hot or cold.
LOVE OF NEYMORE brings a last run figure of 141 from a Chepstow win and the Robbie Llewellyn yard is flying (108 vs 52), but his going figure of just 52 suggests the better surface today may not suit. PIKE ROAD has track experience (102 here last time) but his form over fences has been sketchy. DOUBLE POWERFUL fell last time and unseated before that – hard to trust. MA SHANTOU won here in October (125) but flopped at Haydock last time (35) with the trainer offering “no explanation”. HARBOUR LAKE was pulled up at Haydock and is unreliable.
ACE OF SPADES looks the answer. The Skelton team are in top form, his figures are the most consistent in the field, and the absence of KAMSINAS from this race may well have been a factor in connections’ thinking. SPIKE JONES and LOVE OF NEYMORE are the each-way alternatives, though both come with caveats.
Race 7: 15:40 18-24 Get Your Racepass ‘Junior’ National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) (GBB Race)
A Listed NH Flat race over 2m179y, for 4yo, (16-runner field).
Race Analysis
The concluding Listed bumper provides an excellent example of how our methodology balances form figures with breeding data. In races like this, where many runners have limited or no racecourse experience, the breeding metrics become crucial differentiators.
SOLLYS GOLD is the clear standout on form. His debut figure of 190 at Wetherby 26 days ago towers above everything else in this field – MOLLYS LAD, who finished second at Aintree, managed only 168 in that same race. The comment notes he was “held up in rear” before making “steady headway” and winning going away despite not getting “clear run” – the hallmark of a horse with serious ability. Sean Bowen takes the ride, and James Owen’s yard is operating nicely above baseline (87 vs 81). On the figures alone, he looks exceptionally hard to beat.
The fascinating alternative is GARRINCHA, a horse we’ve been waiting to see on a racecourse. He’s a full brother to the highly talented Madara, and the breeding data screams quality. His sire progeny figure for this race type stands at 77 – joint-highest in the field – while his sire progeny figure for going of 80 and dam progeny figure of 97 add further substance. By Doctor Dino, he comes from a sire line that has excelled in bumpers. Crucially, the Jonjo O’Neill yard has turned a corner in recent weeks, now operating at 89 against a 12-month average of just 68 – a dramatic upturn. The decision to pitch him straight into a Listed bumper on debut rather than an easier introduction tells you how highly connections rate him. At 28/1, he represents a lively each-way proposition for those willing to take a chance on potential.
SOLLYS GOLD looks the one to beat on the strength of that huge debut performance, with GARRINCHA the value play at the prices for those who believe in the breeding and the stable’s resurgent form. It could be a race to savour.
🎲 Tote Placepot – Cheltenham New Year’s Day – First 6 Races
- Leg 1 (12:15): Step Ahead (7)
- Leg 2 (12:50): Regents Stroll (3)
- Leg 3 (13:25): Jasmin De Grugy (7), Herakles Westwood (3)
- Leg 4 (14:00): Riskintheground (4), Matata (2)
- Leg 5 (14:35): Kabral Du Mathan (4)
- Leg 6 (15:10): Ace Of Spades (4), Spike Jones (5)
A 64-line Placepot that leans into the core EquiAnalytix selections from today’s analysis.
🃏 Play the Cheltenham Placepot
📋 Selection Recap
Here are today’s bold selections across the 7 races on New Year’s Day at Cheltenham:
- Race 1 (12:15): Step Ahead (7)
- Race 2 (12:50): Regents Stroll (3)
- Race 3 (13:25): Jasmin De Grugy (7)
- Race 4 (14:00): Riskintheground (4), Matata (2)
- Race 5 (14:35): Kabral Du Mathan (4), Kamsinas (5)
- Race 6 (15:10): Ace Of Spades (4)
- Race 7 (15:40): Sollys Gold (15), Garrincha (8)
These are the runners flagged in today’s write-ups as offering the strongest data case via EquiAnalytix Total Performance Ratings, recent speed figures, and course/ground suitability. Use them as the backbone for your Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta and, of course, Tote Placepot plays.
Conclusion
That wraps up our coverage of New Year’s Day at Cheltenham – a card that always delivers competitive racing and sets the tone for the year ahead.
Through our partnership with Tote UK, we’ll be back throughout the jumps season with more data-driven insights, Placepot perms and Money Back 2nd angles as the trail winds towards the Cheltenham Festival. Until then, stay disciplined, stay data-led, and keep making the most of the edge.
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