Introduction
It starts today. Four days, twenty-eight races, and the most concentrated gathering of jump racing talent on the planet. Cheltenham Festival 2026 gets underway on Champion’s Day, and the card wastes no time – a Grade 1 novice hurdle off the mark, a seven-runner Arkle that could define the two-mile chasing landscape for years to come, and a Champion Hurdle in the afternoon that carries genuine intrigue from top to bottom.
The ground is Good To Soft, which is close to ideal for this track and for our data. Cheltenham on Good To Soft is the conditions profile that sits at the heart of five years of festival backtesting, and it is the going on which our convergence filters have produced their strongest returns. Horses with proven form on this ground, at this course, at this time of year are exactly the profile the model is built to find.
For anyone reading these previews for the first time, we work in partnership with the Tote to bring you data-driven analysis across the biggest meetings of the season. Every selection on this page is driven by the EquiAnalytix ratings system – not instinct, not reputation, and not yesterday’s paddock gossip. The numbers lead, and we follow where they point.
🏇 Today’s Card at a Glance
Seven races across Champion’s Day, with Grade 1 racing the dominant theme:
- 13:20 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m1f, 12 runners
- 14:00 – Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices Chase (Grade 1) – 2m, 7 runners
- 14:40 – McCoy Contractors Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter) – 2m1f, 22 runners
- 15:20 – Trustmarque Ultima Handicap Chase – 3m1f, 22 runners
- 16:00 – Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m1f, 9 runners
- 16:40 – Sun Racing Plate Handicap Chase – 2m4f, 23 runners
- 17:20 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices Handicap Chase – 3m6f, 17 runners
The Unibet Champion Hurdle is the centrepiece – the championship two-mile hurdle that defines careers and launches legacies. Nine runners, a fascinating market, and a race our data has clear views on. The Arkle at 14:00 is a seven-runner tactical puzzle with significant implications for the festival’s chasing narrative. And sandwiched between them, the Fred Winter handicap hurdle – twenty-two juveniles, maximum chaos, and the race type our framework handles least well. We will be honest about that when we get there.
🎯 How We Approach The Data
Our analysis is built around the TPR (Total Performance Rating) – a machine learning-derived metric that combines a horse’s speed figures, going preferences, track record, and trainer momentum into a single forward-looking score. Across our database, horses ranked in the top three on TPR win approximately 55% of all races. The top four account for around 67%. At five consecutive Cheltenham Festivals, the convergence filters built on TPR have returned positive ROI in every graded race category except heavy ground and handicap hurdles.
The supporting metrics you will see throughout:
- T-1 through T-5 – Class-adjusted speed figures from the last five runs. T-1 is the most recent and carries the most weight. Where a figure was posted matters as much as what it says – a T-1 of 160 at Cheltenham on Good To Soft in January is very different from the same number at a flat track on Good ground in October.
- GoingTPR – Average speed rating on today’s ground conditions. A GoingTPR of 0 means a horse is unproven on this going – a meaningful flag on a day when the track demands genuine versatility from every runner.
- TrackTPR – Cheltenham-specific performance. The undulations, the climb to the finish, the drying effect on the far side – this track asks questions that not every horse can answer, and TrackTPR tells us who has answered them before.
- Trainer Momentum – Comparing a trainer’s 1-month average against their 12-month baseline. Hot yards produce winners at the festival at a rate that cold yards cannot match.
One strategic note before we begin: our five-year dataset draws a sharp distinction between race types. Novice graded races return 66.7% winners for our highest-confidence filter. Grade 1 chases return 61.1%. Handicap hurdles return 5.6% for SP favourites and barely more for anything else. We apply different frameworks to different races and we tell you which is which throughout. There is no single approach that works everywhere at Cheltenham – the data is clear on that – and intellectual honesty about the limits of the model is as important as confidence where it is genuinely warranted.
Let’s get into the card.
Race 1: 13:20 Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m1f | Novices Hurdle | Grade 1 | Good To Soft | 12 runners
Race Analysis
The festival opener is the Supreme Novices Hurdle – twelve novice hurdlers, two miles and a furlong, Good To Soft ground. For the EquiAnalytix model, this is the single most important race type of the entire week. Novice graded races are where our convergence framework performs at its absolute best: across five Cheltenham Festivals, horses meeting our top qualification criteria in this category won 66.7% of the time at a return on investment of +138.3%. When the numbers converge clearly on a single horse here, it demands maximum attention.
A quick introduction to our headline metric before we get into the race: TPR, or Total Performance Rating, is our machine learning-derived score that compresses every available data point – speed figures, conditions form, trainer momentum, breeding – into a single number between 0 and 100. The higher the number, the stronger the assessment. Crucially, 67% of all winners come from the TPR top four across our database. That is where we always start.
In this race, the TPR hierarchy is unusually clear. One horse sits at 63. The next best is 50. That is not a tight cluster – it is a gap. And when you layer in the condition-specific ratings on top, the picture sharpens further.
OLD PARK STAR leads this field on three separate dimensions simultaneously: TPR rank 1, GoingTPR rank 1, and TrackTPR rank 1. To explain those terms: GoingTPR measures how a horse has performed specifically on today’s ground conditions – Good To Soft. A GoingTPR of 0 means the horse has never run on this ground before. OLD PARK STAR’s GoingTPR is 160, the highest in the field. TrackTPR measures performance at this specific racecourse. His TrackTPR is 181, also the highest in the field – and that figure comes from exactly one place: a win at Cheltenham in December 2025 on Good To Soft ground. The form comment reads “Took keen hold – disputed lead – led 4th – went clear before last – easily.” This horse has already been to this track, on this ground, over this type of trip, and won going away.
His most recent run came at Haydock on January 17, posting a T-1 – his latest speed figure – of 142 on Good To Soft: “Travelled strongly – made all – pushed along and went well clear after 2 out – impressive.” The step back from a T-2 of 181 (Cheltenham) to 142 will raise a bounce question. The honest data answer: he won easily at Haydock, the lower figure simply reflects a lesser race. His three hurdle wins read 142, 181, 131 – consistent and front-running throughout. EarlyPos shows “Leading” across all three outings. He makes his own pace and does it comfortably. The one absent data point is DistTPR, which reads 0 – this is not a stamina flag, simply a gap in the distance bracket record. He has won over 17 furlongs at Cheltenham and 15.5 at Haydock without issue. Nicky Henderson’s yard is stable: trainer 1-month average of 82 against a 12-month baseline of 83, RTF% of 61%.
The market has two horses priced joint-second at 5/1 that require addressing. TALK THE TALK (O’Brien / Slevin) sits at TPR rank 10. His T-2 is recorded as 0 because he was leading at Leopardstown in December when he “stumbled and fell just after last” – the market is pricing the ghost of that performance. His most recent run produced a T-1 of just 57, and his trainer’s 1-month average has dropped below the 12-month baseline. MIGHTY PARK (Mullins / Walsh) has had exactly one career start – a comfortable Fairyhouse win on Soft in January. Every condition metric reads zero. The Mullins/Walsh combination is the entire argument, and it may be enough, but the data cannot confirm anything at this price. Our five-year record on horses ranked 10th or lower in TPR but second in the market returns a 2.3% strike rate. The market’s faith in both horses is understandable; it is not data-backed.
MYDADDYPADDY (Skelton, 17/2) has genuine going form – GoingTPR of 126, ranked second in the field – but has no Cheltenham experience and has not raced in 74 days. SOBER GLORY (Hobbs, 12/1) posted an eye-catching T-2 of 193 at Newbury in January but drifts just outside our qualification threshold, has no course form, and showed a worrying “weakened when hit last” in a run three starts back.
The verdict here is as clean as the data gets. One horse leads the field on TPR, GoingTPR, and TrackTPR simultaneously, is the market favourite, and holds proven winning form at this track on today’s ground. OLD PARK STAR is the selection, and the convergence points in one direction.
🎯 SELECTION
OLD PARK STAR
Race 2: 14:00 Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices Chase (Grade 1)
2m | Novices Chase | Grade 1 | Good To Soft | 7 runners
Race Analysis
The Arkle is the two-mile novice chase championship – seven runners, small field, Good To Soft. Unusually, two horses clear our highest qualification threshold simultaneously: LULAMBA (Henderson / De Boinville, 11/8) and KOPEK DES BORDES (Mullins / Townend, 6/4) both rank in the top three on TPR, GoingTPR, and TrackTPR, and both are priced inside 11/1. The analysis becomes a head-to-head, and on the going evidence it is not close. LULAMBA’s GoingTPR is 168 against KOPEK DES BORDES’s 112 – a 56-point gap on today’s ground type that the data cannot overlook.
LULAMBA posted a T-2 of 194 at Sandown on Good To Soft in December: “joined leader going easily 2 out – led after 2 out – went clear from last – impressive.” That is the standout figure in this field on comparable ground. His T-1 of 134 came at Newbury on Heavy in February – he won readily, but the drop from 194 reflects the shift to far more testing conditions than he faces today. His two best figures both came on Good To Soft. His TrackTPR of 151 comes from finishing second at the 2025 Festival on Good To Soft, where the comment reads “bit short of room and switched right just after 2 out – challenging run-in – briefly disputed lead towards finish – just held.” He was travelling as well as anything and was unlucky. Henderson’s yard is stable, last run 31 days ago – arrives fit and current.
KOPEK DES BORDES won at Cheltenham in March 2025 on Good To Soft – “joined leader going easily 2 out – led on turn before last – pushed along and 2 lengths ahead when mistake last – kept on” – and the market is backing him to go well again at the same track. But the form since that win carries real flags. His T-2 of 48 at Punchestown reads “jumped left on occasions – not fluent 2 out – soon weakened – eased approaching last” – a complete collapse in jumping and stamina. His T-1 of 106 at Navan in November was a recovery win, but he has not run since – 113 days off the track. He arrives cold, after a jumping scare, with a GoingTPR 56 points below today’s rival. Mullins and Townend are formidable, but the data does not support the favourite’s price.
STEEL ALLY (Thomas / Johnston, 11/1) posted an eye-catching T-1 of 263 at Warwick in February but that came on Heavy ground, his GoingTPR of 80 is the weakest of any contender here, there is no Cheltenham form, and the trainer’s Runs To Form percentage sits at 25% – a cold yard by any measure. KARGESE (Mullins / Danny Mullins, 9/2) is third in the market and ranks fourth on TPR – the exact profile our five-year data flags most sharply, returning 2.3% winners across 88 instances. THe horse won at Cheltenham in March 2025 on Good To Soft; the recent figures of 103 and 108 suggest a ceiling well below the top two.
The selection is LULAMBA. Strongest going form in the field, best recent figure on comparable ground, unlucky second at Cheltenham 12 months ago, and a clear data advantage over a rival arriving cold from a four-month absence.
🎯SELECTION
LULAMBA
Race 3: 14:40 McCoy Contractors Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m1f | Juvenile Handicap Hurdle | Good To Soft | 22 runners
Race Analysis
A word of honest context before we get into this one. The juvenile handicap hurdle – better known as the Fred Winter – is the hardest race of the entire festival for systematic analysis. Twenty-two four-year-olds, a compressed handicap, and a race type where SP favourites have returned just 5.6% winners across our five-year dataset. No filter works cleanly here. Our framework says be cautious, acknowledge the uncertainty, and pick your spots carefully. That is exactly what we are doing.
The TPR leader is POURQUOI PAS PAPA (Nicholls / Cobden, 15/1) at 49 – clear of the rest. But TPR rank 1 at SP rank 11 is a textbook market veto: the model rates the horse highly but the market disagrees, a combination that has returned just 2.3% winners across 88 instances in our dataset. His T-1 of 166 at Haydock on Soft ended with “headed approaching last – no extra run-in” – beaten despite dominating for most of the race. The data says oppose.
The two horses combining market top 3 with supportive raw data – the best available for this race type – are WINSTON JUNIOR (Bramley / Kennedy, 7/1) and MANLAGA (Henderson / De Boinville, 7/1). Both are worth including, but for different reasons.
WINSTON JUNIOR is the only horse in this field with proven Cheltenham form on Good To Soft ground – a TrackTPR of 120 and GoingTPR of 113, both the highest in the race on those specific dimensions. His T-2 of 120 came at this track in December: “short of room before last – switched left – no match for winner – did well in the circumstances, jockey said gelding ran too free.” An excuse-laden run at this exact course and going. Jack Kennedy’s booking today is a significant one and signals clear intent from connections. The concern is trainer Faye Bramley’s Runs To Form percentage of 29%, which sits in cold-yard territory. Kennedy’s presence partly offsets that flag.
MANLAGA carries consistent recent figures – T-1 of 169 at Haydock on Soft in February, T-2 of 184 at Doncaster on Soft in January – and holds Henderson yard and De Boinville in the saddle. The horse’s GoingTPR reads 0 because every run has come on Soft or Heavy, never Good To Soft. That is an unknown rather than a negative. At 7/1 with market support and TPR top 3, the data case is reasonable, though the going question cannot be ignored.
The each-way interest at a bigger price is QUINTA DO LAGO (Harrington / Meyler, 19/1). The T-1 of 204 at Fairyhouse on Good To Soft in January is an eye-catching figure on directly comparable going – and crucially that run came behind a horse we hold in high regard for the Triumph Hurdle later in the week, which adds real credibility to the form line. The comment reads “outpaced after 2 out – rallied and went third run-in – no match for first two” – a horse finishing with purpose having been briefly dropped. GoingTPR of 149 is among the highest in the field for today’s conditions. The caveats are real: TPR rank 16 and the trainer’s 1-month figure reads zero. But at 19/1 each-way in a 22-runner field with that Fairyhouse form line, this is a compelling each-way dart.
This is a race to approach with humility. WINSTON JUNIOR is the primary selection on course and going credentials, with QUINTA DO LAGO as the each-way interest at the bigger price on the back of that Fairyhouse form. Stakes should reflect the difficulty of the race type.
🎯SELECTIONS
WINSTON JUNIOR
QUINTA DO LAGO
Race 4: 15:20 Trustmarque Ultima Handicap Chase
3m1f | Handicap Chase | Good To Soft | 22 runners
Race Analysis
The Ultima is one of the festival’s most competitive handicap chases – 22 runners, a compressed rating band, and a race that consistently humbles systems built for graded contests. Our five-year dataset is direct on this point: the convergence model largely breaks down in handicap chases, where the market emerges as the strongest single predictor at 37.0% strike rate and +53.1% ROI. So we lead with the market here and look for course and going credentials to confirm the choice.
The market leader is JAGWAR (9/2, Mark Walsh), and the data offers a strong case for trusting it. TPR rank 11 reflects the difficulty of scaling these ratings in a handicap field, but the course and going metrics tell a different story entirely. A GoingTPR of 123 (rank 2) and TrackTPR of 138 (rank 4) point to a horse that genuinely thrives at this track on this ground. The form history backs that up comprehensively – four of the last four runs have come at Cheltenham, producing an improving trajectory that reads 118, 144 and 186 across the three most recent outings. That is precisely the kind of form arc you want heading into a big-field handicap festival target.
The most recent run, a T-1 of 186 at Cheltenham on Soft in January 2026, saw the horse go “clear with winner run-in – kept on well but just held” – beaten in a sustained duel at the line having produced a career-best figure. The T-2 of 144 at Cheltenham on Good To Soft in December 2025 was a third where the comment notes “short of room 2 out – soon went third – kept on final 110yds” – a run that flattered the winning margin. The T-3 of 118 at Cheltenham on Good To Soft in March 2025 resulted in a win, “not fluent and ridden last – ridden and led clearly final 110yds – soon pricked ears – won going away.” Mark Walsh’s booking underlines the confidence from the yard. Trainer 1-month average of 59 against a 12-month baseline of 60 is flat rather than hot, so no additional boost there, but nothing to alarm either.
The principal danger is JOHNNYWHO (11/1, Richie McLernon). TPR rank 1 and GoingTPR of 112 make it a legitimate Filter A qualifier on paper, and the T-3 of 162 at Aintree on Good To Soft in November 2025 – “headway 4 out – pressed leaders 2 out – weakened gradually run-in” – is the best recent figure in the race. If returning to that level, it is competitive. The T-1 of 147 at Haydock in January 2026 came with a clear excuse – “mistake 2 out – soon hung left and weakened” – so the figure should not be taken at face value. The concern is TrackTPR of 86 (rank 10) and a trainer RTF of 44%, which raises questions about reliability. Capable of upsetting but needs more from the yard than recent data suggests.
Two horses worth brief notes in opposite directions. BLAZE THE WAY (13/1) holds the best proven course form in the race – TrackTPR 161, rank 1 – off the back of a Cheltenham win on Good To Soft in December 2025. The Margaret Mullins yard is running notably hot (1-month average 127 against a 12-month baseline of 59). However, a T-1 of 61 at Naas on Heavy in January is a significant concern and the form data offers no comment to explain it. At 13/1 there is an each-way case if you are willing to attribute that figure entirely to the ground conditions, but without confirmation from the data it remains speculative. BLOW YOUR WAD is TPR rank 3 at 65 but priced at 13/1 – SP rank 8 – which triggers the market veto. A horse the model rates highly that the market does not respect at this price has returned 2.3% winners across our dataset. It also raced just 10 days ago, which we treat as a red flag ahead of a festival target.
The selection is JAGWAR. The market leadership is confirmed by the strongest course and going credentials of any fancied runner, an improving three-run trajectory all recorded at this track, and a career-best figure just 45 days ago. Reduced stakes to reflect the race type.
🎯SELECTION
JAGWAR
Race 5: 16:00 Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m1f | Grade 1 Hurdle | Good To Soft | 9 runners
Race Analysis
The Champion Hurdle is the championship hurdle race of the festival – nine runners, small field, Grade 1, and the race type where our framework says lead with Filter A combined with a hot trainer. That combination has returned 50.0% strike rate in this category across our five-year dataset. The analysis here is relatively straightforward once the data is laid out.
The convergence picture starts with an important anomaly. ALEXEI leads the TPR rankings by a considerable margin – a rating of 57 against LOSSIEMOUTH’s 48 – and also holds the best GoingTPR (156, rank 1) and TrackTPR (179, rank 1) in the field. By the raw metrics alone, this horse tops every meaningful dimension. The issue is price: at 17/1, ALEXEI sits at SP rank 6, which triggers the market veto. The market is unconvinced, most likely on the basis of the class step to this level. Our dataset shows that TPR rank 1 horses dismissed by the market at this price have returned just 2.3% winners across 88 instances. We respect that signal – but we will return to ALEXEI.
The Filter A qualifier – and our primary selection – is LOSSIEMOUTH (11/4, Paul Townend). TPR rank 2, GoingTPR of 130 (rank 4, non-zero), SP rank 1. The Mullins yard is operating at a 1-month average of 87 against a 12-month baseline of 82 – the hot trainer box is ticked. That is Filter A plus hot trainer confirmed, the highest-conviction profile in this race type. She won at Cheltenham on Good To Soft in March 2025 and her best recent figure – a T-3 of 186 at Punchestown on Soft/Heavy in November 2025 – came with the comment “made all – not fluent 5th – clear after 2 out – eased towards finish – readily.” The T-1 of 139 at Leopardstown on Heavy in February is a decline from that peak, and the comment notes she “hung left – no impression run-in.” Heavy ground on that occasion is the most obvious explanation for the step back, and today’s Good To Soft is far more familiar territory. Townend, the hot yard, the Cheltenham course form, and the only convergence qualifier in the race – the framework points here.
The principal danger on recent form is BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (5/1, Jack Kennedy). Three consecutive figures of 154, 154, 151 make this the most consistent horse in the field on a run-by-run basis. Won at Leopardstown on Heavy in February – “led before last – stayed on run-in.” The concern is Cheltenham: a TrackTPR of only 40 reflects one compromised run here, last year’s Champion Hurdle where the comment reads “badly hampered by faller last – soon lost two places.” That is a genuine excuse, but it leaves genuine course form unestablished. THE NEW LION (7/2, Harry Skelton) is the second market pick and won at Cheltenham on Good To Soft in March 2025. However, a T-1 of just 50 from a January win at this track – “pushed along to lead run-in – soon edged right – ran on” – is a modest figure for a Champion Hurdle contender, and T-2 reads zero following a fall at Newcastle in November. The trajectory raises questions the data cannot fully resolve.
Now back to ALEXEI (17/1, Brendan Powell). We have flagged the market veto, and it stands as a genuine caveat. But the case for including this horse as an outsider interest is hard to ignore. Three figures this season read 179, 171, 178 – a level of consistency that no other runner in this field comes close to matching across their recent outings. The T-3 of 179 came at Cheltenham on Soft in November 2025 – “joined leader last – ridden and went clear inside final 110yds – impressive.” The T-1 of 178 was a win at Wincanton on Heavy in February. The market’s scepticism is about class, and that is a legitimate concern. But the Champion Hurdle has produced its share of surprises, and a horse arriving with three figures in the high 170s, the best course and going credentials in the field, and a trainer in Joe Tizzard whose yard is running at 78 against a 12-month baseline of 80 – not hot, but far from cold – deserves acknowledgement at 17/1. This is an each-way interest for those willing to take the market on.
The selection is LOSSIEMOUTH. Filter A confirmed, hot trainer confirmed, Cheltenham course form confirmed, market support confirmed. ALEXEI is noted as the value outsider for those seeking a each-way interest at the bigger price.
🎯SELECTION
LOSSIEMOUTH
ALEXEI
Race 6: 16:40 Sun Racing Plate Handicap Chase
2m4f | Handicap Chase | Good To Soft | 23 runners
Race Analysis
Another large-field handicap chase, and the same framework applies as earlier on the card. Twenty-three runners, compressed ratings, and a race type where our five-year dataset is unambiguous: the convergence model largely fails in handicap chases, SP favourites return +53.1% ROI, and the right approach is to lead with the market and confirm with going and course credentials. That is exactly what we do here.
The market has thrown up joint favourites, and the data separates them clearly. MCLAUREY (5/1, Mark Walsh) holds equal market billing but TPR rank 11, with recent figures of 91, 61, 86, 88 — nothing in the data to justify co-favourite status. The Walsh booking is clearly driving the price. MADARA (5/1, Harry Skelton) is a different proposition entirely. TPR rank 2, GoingTPR of 112 (rank 3, non-zero) — this is a genuine Filter A qualifier, the same convergence filter that identifies the strongest handicap chase candidates in our broader dataset. In a race type where the model and market rarely agree, having both pointing at the same horse is the strongest available signal.
The form history for MADARA requires some unpicking. The T-2 of 165 at Wetherby on Soft in December 2025 is the standout figure, but the lengthy inquiry note attached to that run is important context — Harry Skelton’s evidence confirmed he rode the horse conservatively following a 378-day absence, keeping it balanced through the final fences rather than pressing for position. The figure reflects ability rather than a maximum effort. The T-3 of 139 at Cheltenham on Good To Soft in December 2024 came with the comment “jumped right and hampered rival 2 out – no extra towards finish” — Cheltenham form on today’s ground, with a clear excuse for not finishing the race off. The T-1 of 102 at Kempton on Good To Soft in February 2026 is modest — “not fluent 8th – outpaced 3 out – stayed on run-in – went second towards finish” — and the declining trajectory from 165 to 102 is a genuine concern. The Dan Skelton yard is operating at a 1-month average of 73 against a 12-month baseline of 78, slightly below its norm. These are real caveats in what is a difficult race to call.
The most eye-catching figure in the race belongs to GUARD YOUR DREAMS (23/1, Sam Twiston-Davies). A T-1 of 236 at Warwick on Heavy in February — “clear before 2 out – pushed along and went further clear run-in – eased towards finish” — is comfortably the highest recent figure in the field. TPR rank 4 reflects that. But the market has it at SP rank 14, triggering the market veto cleanly. Trainer RTF of 34% is a cold yard, and Heavy at Warwick in February is a very different surface and test to Cheltenham on Good To Soft. The market has assessed that gap and priced accordingly. We respect the veto.
DOWN MEMORY LANE (11/1, Jack Kennedy) carries the second-best GoingTPR in the field at 116 and the Jack Kennedy booking from the Elliott yard is always worth noting. A T-1 of 141 at Navan on Soft/Heavy in December — “led before last – ridden out – cosily” — shows the going credentials are genuine. The barriers are a TrackTPR of 0 and 94 days off track. Each-way players may find it interesting but it sits outside the primary selection framework.
The selection is MADARA. Market co-favourite confirmed by the only Filter A qualification in the race — that convergence of model and market in a handicap chase is precisely what the strategy targets.
🎯SELECTION
MADARA
Race 7: 17:20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase
3m6f | Handicap Chase | Good To Soft | 17 runners
Race Analysis
The festival closer is also its most opaque. Seventeen novice handicap chasers over three and a half miles, and the convergence model finds nothing — no Filter E, no Filter A. This is the race type where the framework is most explicit: lead with the market, look for going and course form as confirmation, and keep stakes to a minimum. A novice handicap over the largest field of the day is not where you push hard.
The market has spoken with reasonable clarity around a small group at the head of the market, and within that group one horse has a recent speed figure that stands clearly above anything else in the field. BACKMERSACKME heads the market on the strength of a second at this course on Good in October 2025 — TrackTPR of 114 — but the wider data picture is weak. TPR rank 17, GoingTPR rank 14, and a T-1 of 77 at Leopardstown on Soft in February where the win came from midfield in a modest race. The market has latched onto the course form, but the overall quality of the data profile does not support favouritism in this company.
The figure that stands out across the entire race belongs to NEWTON TORNADO. The T-1 of 202 at Doncaster on Soft in January 2026 is the strongest recent effort in the field by some distance — “went second 11th – led after 3 out – 5 lengths ahead 2 out – ridden and went further clear approaching last – ran on well.” That is a dominant performance, and the going conditions map directly to today. The T-2 of 0 — a pulled-up run at Newbury in late December — has a clear explanation: “made a bad mistake at the first fence in the back straight and lost his action thereafter.” A jumping incident on Good ground, not a fitness or ability concern. The T-3 of 146 at Bangor on Heavy in November, where the comment notes “jumped right throughout – kept on well from 2 out – comfortably”, rounds out a form picture of a horse who handles testing ground and wins doing so. Sean Flanagan rides, and SP rank 2 at 11/2 confirms the market respects the case.
The one concern that cannot be waved away is the fall at this course in October 2025 — “disputed lead 6th – fell 4 out.” Jumping at Cheltenham remains an open question, and the tendency to jump right flagged at Bangor makes it a live worry over a track with as much undulation and as many demands as this one. Rebecca Curtis’ yard is operating at 1-month average of 54 against a 12-month baseline of 63 — a cold trainer reading that is worth noting.
WADE OUT offers an alternative market angle with a Cheltenham win on Soft in November 2025 on the figures, but the T-1 of 99 at Windsor — “raced lazily at times – outpaced when jumped right 3 out – weakened after 2 out” — is poor, jumping concerns resurfaced, and Olly Murphy’s yard is running equally flat at 1-month 67 vs 12-month 82. KING OF ANSWERS has the second-best T-1 in the field at 181 from Kelso on Heavy, but that was on a very different track to Cheltenham and the trainer combination of Russell and Scudamore is cold at 55 vs 71.
This is a race to approach with eyes wide open. No convergence, a cold trainer, and a jumping question at the specific track. The selection is NEWTON TORNADO — the T-1 of 202 is the standout figure, the Newbury excuse is clear, and the market has priced it at a level that reflects genuine confidence. Minimum stakes only.
🎯SELECTION
NEWTON TORNADO
📋 Day 1 Summary: Selections at a Glance
| Race | Time | Selection |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:20 | OLD PARK STAR |
| 2 | 14:00 | LULAMBA |
| 3 | 14:40 | WINSTON JUNIOR / QUINTA DO LAGO (E/W) |
| 4 | 15:20 | JAGWAR |
| 5 | 16:00 | LOSSIEMOUTH / ALEXEI (E/W) |
| 6 | 16:40 | MADARA |
| 7 | 17:20 | NEWTON TORNADO |
Conclusion
That wraps up our Day 1 coverage of the Cheltenham Festival 2026. Champion’s Day sets the tone for everything that follows — and with selections across seven races backed by five years of festival data, we will find out quickly how well the model has read the card.
Through our partnership with Tote UK, we will be back tomorrow for Day 2, with the Queen Mother Champion Chase, the Ballymore, and the Brown Advisory among the headline acts. The best is still to come.
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