Irish Champions Day at Leopardstown, and the St Leger from Doncaster twenty minutes into the middle of it. Three Group 1s in the Golden Fleece, the Matron and the Irish Champion Stakes, a Group 2, a Group 3 and a Listed race, three handicaps with twenty-one, twenty-six and nineteen runners, and the oldest Classic slotted in at 15:35 where the afternoon actually puts it. This is also the first Irish Champions Day since our French database went live, and it shows: the Prix du Jockey Club, the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, the Prix Rothschild and the Prix du Moulin all appear in the form below, on their own scale and with their own caveats.
This guide reads all ten races through our model, and it works the way our coverage always works: the framing of every race is open to everyone, a free account unlocks the complete analysis, and members get the live data tables underneath, the same percentages, ratings and pace maps the dashboard runs, updating through the day. Along the way we explain the figures as we use them, because the point of these guides has never been a list of horses to follow. It is showing how data narrows big fields to the two or three worth your attention, and letting you take the method anywhere.
How we read a race
Every horse in a race holds a TPR percentage and every field sums to 100, so the numbers read like the model’s own market. The engine chips show ability, current form and operating level; the sparkline is the last five race figures. Ten quick answers sit in the primer below, and the full walkthrough of every metric is in the complete data guide.
Ballylinch Stud Irish EBF Ingabelle Stakes (Listed)
7f | Class 1 Listed | 10 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Irish Champions Day opens with eleven two-year-old fillies over seven furlongs in Listed company on Good ground, and it opens the Placepot too. A word on how to read what follows, because we will use the same tools all afternoon. Every horse in a race carries a share of our model's confidence, and the field always adds up to 100; here the model puts 27 on TIMELESS TALE, ten clear of IBELIEVEICANFLY on 17, with SNOWING on 13 and MAIRE RUA on 12 next. Every run a horse records also earns a performance figure, built from the clock and adjusted for the class of the race, so a figure of 120 in a maiden and 120 in a Group race mean the same thing. Then the shape of the contest. Five of the eleven are habitual front-runners, the pace forecast is 6 on a scale where 9 is a stampede, and our long-run study of Leopardstown sprint trips on quick ground says leaders win about 28 per cent less often than the market expects (0.72 against expectation from 75 runs) while the high-drawn third of the field is the worst place to start (0.62 from 49 runs). Low draws run to expectation.
TIMELESS TALE has run once, and the one run is the biggest fact in the race. At Naas over six furlongs on Good on 23 August she was "slow to break", then "moved to front approaching 3f out and asked for effort" and "stretched away", earning a figure of 173. That is the highest last-time figure in the field by nine points, and for a debutante it is a number our database sees very rarely; the model's 27 share, the clearest in any race on this card so far, is the machine saying the same thing. She is trained by Willie McCreery, whose stable form, the one-month figure against the twelve-month baseline, reads 111 against 78, the warmest yard running at Leopardstown today. We will not pretend the questions away. She led at Naas and is drawn in stall 9 of 11, so she starts in the third of the track our study likes least and will have four other leaders for company; she has never raced beyond six furlongs, never at this course and never at this level; and the engine has a single run to build on. The size of the debut figure is why we bold her anyway. Fillies do not run 173 first time out by accident.
IBELIEVEICANFLY is the proven level, and the pedigree to go with it. She carries an official mark of 100, the highest in the race, and she is by Frankel, whose progeny average is the joint-best sire figure in the field at 92, out of a mare whose foals average 114. Her figures travel: she won at the Curragh over this trip on Good To Firm on 9 August with a 164, "hit the front a furlong out under pressure", then finished fourth over the same seven furlongs at the Curragh on Good three weeks ago with a 121, "pressed for effort with 2f left but couldn't get on terms with front-runners". Our conditions figures isolate a horse's verified best on today's exact ground and trip, and hers read 118 on Good, second only to the primary, and 106 at seven furlongs. She races prominently rather than in front, and from stall 1 she has the running style and the draw that the bias study prefers. Aidan O'Brien's stable runs at 105 against a 106 baseline, steady rather than hot, and Ryan Moore rides. The honest entries: her figures swing (a consistency reading of 33, where lower is steadier) and her only previous visit here produced a track figure of 46.
The rest split into one serious danger and a supporting cast. MAIRE RUA won here over this exact trip on Good in July with a 123 and was third at Cork over seven furlongs last time with a 119, so she owns the best track figure in the field and the best figure at the distance, and her dam's progeny average of 130 is the strongest pedigree number on show. Against her is stall 11 and a hold-up style, the one combination our Leopardstown study rates worst of all (0.65 from 22 runs, a small sample stated as such). LADY PATRONA ran a 142 when third at Navan over six furlongs a week ago, the second-best last-time figure here, with her form trend rising, but she has no seven-furlong form and is drawn 10. MISS CASHMAN HOOKE was fourth over six furlongs on the same Naas card as the primary, earning a 109 on her only start. SNOWING, the O'Brien second string, was second at Gowran eleven days ago with an 84, and she, BELLESQUE and MAEDA MATSU are the other leaders who will make sure the early pace is honest.
TIMELESS TALE's debut figure is the largest single piece of evidence in the race, and the model's biggest share of the afternoon backs it. IBELIEVEICANFLY brings the proven mark, the breeding and the draw. If the five leaders cut each other down, MAIRE RUA is the one who profits.
The full field
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Sovereign Path Handicap
7f | Handicap | 17 runners | Non-runners: Tokenomics
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Twenty-one runners over seven furlongs in the day's first big handicap, and the model's shares are spread thin: GLENEAGLE BAY heads it on 11, CARNIVAL OF LIGHT 10, BENEVENTO and DORSET 9 apiece, then a cluster of five on 6. In a field this size the race shape is worth more than any single number. Four of these are confirmed front-runners and the pace forecast is 8 on the nine-point scale, so a strong early gallop is the likeliest outcome. Our Leopardstown study says leaders over sprint trips on quick ground win about 28 per cent less often than the market expects, horses ridden just behind the pace run to expectation overall, and the same prominent style from a low draw is the best cell in the entire study at 1.23 times expectation from 55 runs. The high-drawn third of the field runs to 0.62. With 21 declared, stalls 1 to 7 are the low third.
GLENEAGLE BAY is that profile exactly, and the model's top share on top of it. A six-year-old off a mark of 93 for Stephen Thorne, whose stable form reads 104 against a 92 baseline, with Colin Keane riding, he races prominently and he starts from stall 1. His last run was sixth at Galway over seven furlongs on Good To Soft on 2 August with a figure of 166, "pushed along and made headway 2f out then 7th passing the furlong marker, stayed on at one speed", and that number sits well above his mark. The conditions figures matter more here than the last run: his track figure at Leopardstown is 182, a single point behind the best in the field, and his figure at seven furlongs is 157, the best of all 21. The handicapper's trajectory on him is rising and he runs 4 lb above the mark he last won from, so he is not thrown in, and his figures swing more than we would like (a consistency reading of 41). He has had 41 days off. The draw, the running style and the course record are why he heads the list.
VAFORTINO owns the largest figure anyone brings to the race. On that same Galway card on 2 August, over the same seven furlongs on the same Good To Soft ground, he finished third with a 190, three places and 24 points ahead of the primary, "sat close behind front group early, 6th at halfway, pressed for effort over a furlong and a half out". No other horse here ran higher than 174 last time. Charlie Fellowes sends him over off 99 with James Doyle booked, he sits 2 lb below the mark he last won from with the assessor still easing him, and his track figure of 142 is the third best in the field. The honest entries are the ones you would expect: he is eight years old with 36 career runs, and he is drawn in stall 8, the middle third, where our study reads 0.86. His trend of +40 says the engine is still improving, which at his age is the number that matters.
The dangers are two different arguments. COLLECTING COIN has the best two-run sequence in the field, a 178 winning at Chester over seven and a half furlongs on Good in July and a 174 when second there on Good To Soft last time, with a form trend of +53 and a prominent style from stall 7, the last of the low-drawn stalls. Against him: he runs 10 lb above his last winning mark and rising, both figures came round Chester's tight turns, and Jennie Candlish's stable reads 73 against 82. DORSET will be the one the market believes in, an O'Brien three-year-old off 100 ridden by Ryan Moore and dropping 14 points in class from Group company; his last run was last of seven in a Group 1 at Longchamp over a mile six days ago, beaten fourteen and a half lengths, after eighth of thirteen in another Group 1 there in May; our French database credits the Longchamp run with a 155, and that figure says more about the class of the race than the run. He is also a front-runner into the bias that punishes front-runners. BENEVENTO led at Cork and Gowran in his last two (138 and a winning 159) but starts from stall 18, and ANDAB, the top weight with the best engine ability figure here (106) and the best figure on Good (152), is drawn widest but one in 20. RAHMI has the best Leopardstown figure of all (183) and runs 10 lb below his last winning mark, but produced a 72 last time. CARNIVAL OF LIGHT, the model's second, was beaten out of sight at York and steps up 7 in class as another leader.
The pace and the draw study both point at a prominent racer from a low stall, and GLENEAGLE BAY is the one the model rates highest. VAFORTINO brings the biggest figure in the race, earned against the primary. COLLECTING COIN is the danger the market may miss; DORSET is the one it will not.
The full field
HKJC World Pool Golden Fleece Stakes (Group 1)
1m1f | Class 1 Group 1 | 9 runners | World Pool
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The first Group 1 of the day is a World Pool race, which means the Tote's pool here is co-mingled with Hong Kong's and dividends tend to run larger than a normal Irish Saturday. Ten two-year-olds go a mile and a furlong on Good, and the model has a clear order among the six it knows: DARKNESS FALLS 27, AIX LA CHAPELLE 18, PIKACHU 14, QUEST FOR STARS 13, NOLA SOUL 11, SHAKESPEARE 10. The other four, GREEN DREAMER, JESUS GREEN, ZARAK PASHA and VICTORY SPEECH, have no runs in our database at all. The racecard says each has raced, so those runs happened somewhere our figures do not reach, and the engine has simply never seen them; their shares of 2 and below are an absence of evidence, not a verdict. The shape is unusual for a Group 1: one confirmed front-runner in the field and a pace forecast of 2 on the nine-point scale, which usually means a crawl and a sprint. Our long-run Leopardstown study over middle distances on quick ground says leaders run to 1.05 times expectation, horses ridden just behind them 0.95, and horses held up at the back 0.63 from 845 runs. Patience is the wrong tactic on this course.
AIX LA CHAPELLE carries the biggest number in the race, and it was earned on this track. Two runs so far: a win at the Curragh over seven furlongs on Good To Soft in June with a 144, "good headway 1f out, ridden to lead inside final 110yds, kept on well", and then a run here over seven and a half furlongs on Good on 23 July that produced a figure of 199. He crossed the line third that day and was demoted to fourth by the stewards for "drifting left over 1f out", which changes the placing and not the number, because the figure is built from the clock and the beaten distances. It stands forty-five points clear of anything else in the field last time out and is the best course figure by the same margin. The engine, which builds a running estimate of each horse's true ability from every run and every beaten length, rates him the best horse here on both its measures, an ability figure of 96 and an operating figure of 99, and his dam's progeny average 132. Christophe Soumillon rides for Aidan O'Brien. The honest entries: he has been off for 51 days, he starts from stall 10 in the high third of the draw, and the model's share of 18 sits below the stablemate's 27. We side with the figure and the engine over the share.
DARKNESS FALLS is the model's top on 27, and the reason is the race shape. He has run once, winning at the Curragh over a mile on Good a fortnight ago with a 118, "led throughout, driven to go clear approaching 2f out, stayed on well in the closing stages to win". He is the only confirmed front-runner among the ten, so with a forecast of 2 he should get the lead to himself, and leaders from a middle stall run to 1.12 times expectation here from 183 runs. Ryan Moore, who chooses among the O'Brien runners, chooses him. Against him is the same evidence read the other way: the 118 is the lowest last-time figure among the six with form, his engine ability figure of 76 is the lowest of that six, and a Group 1 is a jump of six class points on the strength of a single maiden.
Of the rest, PIKACHU has the highest official mark in the field at 106 and the steadiest profile of the proven six, a consistency reading of 14, with a 153 at Hamilton last time, "won without a fight", following a 145 at Newmarket; he races prominently from stall 4, which suits the course. NOLA SOUL is the horse the figures like most after the primary: three runs of 156, 146 and 151, a consistency reading of 4 that is the steadiest on the whole card, a course figure of 156 and a dam whose progeny average 151, the best pedigree number in the race. Against him is everything about how he will be ridden: "pulling hard through midrace" last time, a mid-division style from stall 1 that our study rates at 0.51, and a stable running at 80 against an 81 baseline. QUEST FOR STARS is unbeaten in three for Charlie Appleby, whose yard is the hottest on the card at 128 against 105, but his figures have fallen with each win, 141 then 94 then 114, all on Good To Firm, and he has never run on Good. SHAKESPEARE, the third O'Brien runner, won at the Curragh over seven furlongs with a 154 from the front and was second here over a mile in July.
AIX LA CHAPELLE has the figure, the course form and the engine's confidence; DARKNESS FALLS has the pace map, the jockey and the model's share. PIKACHU and NOLA SOUL are the dangers if the two O'Brien runners take each other on, and QUEST FOR STARS is the unbeaten one whose numbers say otherwise.
The full field
World Pool Bet With The Tote Kilternan Stakes (Group 3)
1m4f | Class 1 Group 3 | 10 runners | World Pool
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The Kilternan is the second World Pool race of the afternoon and the first at a mile and a half, eleven runners on Good, and the model's order is GREEN IMPACT 18, then SONS AND LOVERS and PURVIEW on 14 each, PIAZZA SAN MARCO 12, ARABIAN CROWN and GAUCHER on 11. The shape is the story again. Five of the eleven are confirmed front-runners and the pace forecast is 8, so the early gallop should be hard, and our Leopardstown study is clear about who that helps: over middle distances horses held up at the back run to 0.63 times expectation, and over staying trips the leaders themselves fall to 0.79 while horses ridden just behind the pace run to 1.10. The horses sitting second, third and fourth as they turn in are the ones the race will be handed to.
PURVIEW is the best horse in the race on every measure of class, and we lead with him on the size of the numbers. His official mark is 118, six points clear of anything else here, and he is unbeaten this year for Dermot Weld with Colin Keane riding: he won at the Curragh over this trip on Good in May with a figure of 235, "shaken up and edged right over 1f out, soon led and went well clear, eased", then at the Curragh over a mile and a quarter on Good in June with a 244, "took up lead going easily 2f out, pressed on and clear over 1f out, comfortable". That 244 is the biggest last-time figure in the field, and the 235 is the best figure anyone here has recorded at a mile and a half. His form trend, the direction his figures are moving across recent starts, reads +59. He races prominently rather than in front, which is where the pace map wants him. The honest entries are real: 76 days off since June, stall 11 is the widest of the eleven, he has only seven career runs, and his consistency reading of 54 is high because the run before those two wins was a 126. We take the view that a horse producing 235 and 244 in successive starts has told us what he is.
GREEN IMPACT is the model's top share and the engine's best horse, and the course form is his. A four-year-old colt off 109 for Jessica Harrington, whose stable form reads 97 against an 82 baseline, with Shane Foley riding, he was second here over this exact trip on Good on 6 August with a 238, "into second and driven a furlong out, fought for the front", the second-biggest last-time figure in the race, and his 244 on Soft at the Curragh in April is the equal of anything the primary has run. His course figure of 177 is second only to GAUCHER's, his figure at the trip of 229 second only to the primary's, and his dam's progeny average 162, the best pedigree number in the field. The engine, which builds a running estimate of each horse's true ability from every run, rates him first on both its measures, an ability figure of 119 and an operating level of 120. He races prominently from a middle stall. Consistency of 35 is the only soft number.
GAUCHER is the danger, and the primary and secondary both know him. He set the pace in that 6 August race here and held on for third with a 230, "stretched clear approaching 2f out, driven inside the final furlong and battled on", which gives him the best course figure and the best going figure in the race; the problem is that he is one of five leaders in a race that will be run hard, and leaders over staying trips at this course run to 0.79. ARABIAN CROWN carries the hottest stable form on the card, Charlie Appleby at 128 against 105, and James Doyle, off a mark of 112 and a 181 when second at Newmarket over this trip in July, but he has been off 65 days, he is another front-runner, and the run before Newmarket was a 71 on Soft, "led, weakened from over 1f out". IN MY TEENS won at the Curragh over this trip on Good in June with a 211 and owns the second-best going figure at 185, but her "effort petered out quickly" at Goodwood last time and her trend reads minus 28. SONS AND LOVERS shares the model's second place on 14, but his last figure was a 115 at Longchamp on our French scale, his trend is minus 42 and he is a fifth leader. PIAZZA SAN MARCO is the O'Brien and Moore runner, a three-year-old off 102 whose only run this year was a 156 over a mile and six here, and JAMES J BRADDOCK is the steadiest profile in the field (consistency 9) but was "always at the back" last time and has been off 76 days.
PURVIEW's two figures are the best evidence of class in the race and the pace will be run to suit him; GREEN IMPACT has the model, the engine, the pedigree and the course form. GAUCHER is the one who can beat them both if the leaders are left alone, and this pace map says they will not be.
The full field
Betfred St Leger Stakes (Group 1), Doncaster
1m6f115y | Class 1 Group 1 | 11 runners | Doncaster, Good
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
We cross the Irish Sea for the oldest Classic, run at Doncaster twenty minutes after the Kilternan, and it sits here in the order the afternoon actually unfolds. Eleven three-year-olds go a mile and three-quarters on ground that has dried to Good since the declarations, five of them from Aidan O'Brien's yard, and the model's order is ENCELADUS 17, PIERRE BONNARD and AMELIA EARHART 14 apiece, ACTION and CHRISTMAS DAY 12. Two facts frame everything. First, nobody in the field has raced over this trip, and only three have gone as far as a mile and six. Second, the race shape: four confirmed front-runners and a pace forecast of 7, and our Doncaster study over staying trips says the horses ridden just behind the pace are the ones to be with. On softer ground they run to 1.14 times expectation from 254 runs; on Good the edge narrows, but the leaders (0.85) and the horses held up at the back (0.88) still fall short of it. At this trip, the horses sitting second and third as they straighten up have won more than their share.
ENCELADUS is the model's top share and the field's steadiest improver, and his running style is the one the course rewards. Trained by Joseph O'Brien, ridden by Billy Loughnane, he runs off a mark of 112 in cheekpieces and has won his last three: at Cork over a mile and a quarter on Good To Soft with a 108, "kept on well inside final furlong, just did enough, gamely", at Ascot over a mile and a half on Good To Firm with a 126, and at Goodwood over a mile and a half on Good To Firm on 30 July with a 144, "roused to improve into contention 3f out, pushed along to move up 2f out, edged right to hit the front". Three figures climbing in order, a form trend of +18, and a consistency reading of 15 that is the second-steadiest among the principals. He races prominently, which is the cell the study rewards on any ground. The honest entries: the engine's ability figure for him is 88, the lowest of the six main contenders, because his wins have been earned by margins rather than by the clock; this is a step of five class points into a Group 1; and he has been off 44 days. What he has never done is go backwards.
AMELIA EARHART brings the biggest figure anyone recorded last time out, and the engine's highest opinion. An O'Brien filly off 104, ridden by Tom Marquand and receiving the fillies' allowance, she was second at Cork over a mile and a half on Good on 14 August with a 182, "slipped back to 5th approaching the furlong marker, rallied strongly", having run a 174 at the Curragh over the same trip in July with a 118 over a mile and six at Goodwood in between. The engine rates her the best horse in the race on ability at 105, she races prominently, and she has run at Doncaster before, though her course figure of 93 is modest. The reservations are the Goodwood run, which was her weakest and came at the longest trip she has tried, and a going figure on softer ground of 86, which matters less now the ground has dried.
The two biggest figures in the race belong to horses the pace map is against. CHRISTMAS DAY is the best horse here on official figures at 118, won at Epsom over a mile and a half on Soft in June with a 140, and then produced a 237 when second at the Curragh over the same trip, the largest figure in the field by two points, before a 109 at York last time, "shaken up as rivals came at him". He is a front-runner among four, leaders here run below expectation whatever the ground (0.74 on soft, 0.85 on Good), his trend reads minus 15 and his consistency reading is 54. PIERRE BONNARD was third in that Curragh race with a 235 and was closing hard when second at York last time, "progressed strongly to join the front group 3f out, went on 2f out before being overtaken", but he is ridden from the back or the middle of the field, the two styles the study punishes, and his consistency reading of 61 is the most volatile of the principals. One line in his favour the home figures miss: as a two-year-old he won the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, a Group 1 over a mile and a quarter on Soft, at 1.70, beating A Boy Named Susie, who runs in the Irish Champion Stakes later on this page. Soft ground has never been his problem. HIGHWAYMAN is the stamina danger: the only horse here who has won over a mile and six, at Leopardstown on Good To Soft on 20 August with a 172, the second-biggest last-time figure, and a trend of +38; the class jump of eight points is the largest in the field. ACTION owns a Doncaster course figure of 140 but lost a shoe at York and has been beaten in his last three, and HATTEEN has the best course figure of all, a 166 winning here over a mile and a half in July, but runs off 96, pulled hard last time and is a fourth leader.
ENCELADUS is the model's top, the steadiest improver and the running style Doncaster rewards; AMELIA EARHART has the biggest recent figure and the engine's best opinion. CHRISTMAS DAY is the class if the leaders are allowed to dawdle, and HIGHWAYMAN is the one who has already stayed the distance.
The full field
Coolmore America Justify Matron Stakes (Group 1)
1m | Class 1 Group 1 | 9 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Back to Leopardstown for the Matron, a Group 1 over a mile for fillies and mares, nine runners on Good, and the fifth leg of the Placepot. The model's order is FALLEN ANGEL 29, BLUE BOLT 21, PRECISE 17, TRUE LOVE 14, CITY OF MEMPHIS 8, and the four behind them share a single-figure total. The shape is the opposite of the Kilternan: one confirmed front-runner in the field and a pace forecast of 4, so a steady gallop is likely, and our Leopardstown study over middle distances on quick ground says that suits the leader (1.05 times expectation) and the horses close behind (0.95) while horses held up at the back run to 0.63. A slowly run mile here is not a race to be coming from last in.
BLUE BOLT is the highest-rated horse on the card so far and the one whose recent form reads best, and we lead with her on the strength of what she has done this summer. Trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Colin Keane, she runs off a mark of 119, five points clear of the next horse here, and she has won her last three: at Ascot over a mile on Good To Firm in June with a 121, at Newmarket over a mile on Good To Firm in July with a 115, and then at Deauville over a mile on Soft on 2 August with a figure of 232. That last number comes from our French figures, which arrived this month and sit on a slightly hotter scale than the home ones, so we quote it with that caveat; what is not in doubt is that PRECISE finished behind her that day. Her going figure of 174 is the best in the field, her form trend reads +56, and she races prominently, which is where the pace map wants a horse in a race with one leader. The honest entries: stall 9 is the widest of the nine, she has been off 41 days, and her consistency reading of 54 reflects two English wins the clock rated modestly before the French run. Three wins on the bounce at this level is the fact that outweighs them.
FALLEN ANGEL is the model's top share and the horse the race shape is built for. A five-year-old mare off 114 for Karl Burke, whose stable reads 99 against a 104 baseline, with James Doyle riding and cheekpieces on, she is the only confirmed front-runner in the field, and with a forecast of 4 she should be left alone in front. Her last run was third at Haydock over a mile on Good on 8 August with a 184, "tracked pace close up, edged in front just past 2f out then wandered off a true line, overtaken entering last furlong", and she owns the best course figure in the race at 172 and the best figure at the trip at 168. She also won last year's Prix Rothschild at Deauville, the race the primary won this year, over a mile on Good at 11.9 on the French scale with a 221. The reservations are written into that Haydock comment and into the run before it, a 23 at York over a mile and a quarter in May, "outpaced over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong", which leaves her with the most volatile profile of the nine (consistency 68). When she runs her race she runs a big one; the question is which version turns up.
PRECISE is the engine's horse. The O'Brien three-year-old, ridden by Ryan Moore off a mark of 115, was second to the primary in the Prix Rothschild at Deauville in August, beaten half a length, with a 219, and third in the Prix Jacques le Marois there a fortnight later, beaten three-quarters of a length, with a 184, both on the French scale, and the engine rates her the best horse in the race on both its measures, an ability figure of 112 and an operating level of 113; her dam's progeny average 126, the best pedigree number here. Everything about her numbers says she belongs, and everything about her running style says the race has to be run faster than the forecast: she is held up, and that is the 0.63 cell on this course. CITY OF MEMPHIS is unbeaten in three this year for Paddy Twomey, the last a 164 at the Curragh over a mile on Good in May, "led inside final 110yds, ran on", with a course figure of 156 and a consistency reading of 18, the steadiest among the principals; she has not run for 111 days, races in mid-division, and her stable reads 93 against 110. TRUE LOVE, the second O'Brien runner, is rated 113 but her last three figures descend, 119 then 149 then 94. DUCKADILLY has the second-best course figure at 166 but is held up and from a stable reading 76 against 68, and CAROLINA JETSTREAM ran a 159 when second at Killarney last time off a mark of 104.
BLUE BOLT's three-race sequence and the mark that goes with it make her the class of the race; FALLEN ANGEL has the model's share, the course figure and a pace map drawn for her. PRECISE is the danger if the gallop is honest, and CITY OF MEMPHIS the one nobody has yet seen beaten this year.
The full field
Tonybet Solonaway Stakes (Group 2)
1m | Class 1 Group 2 | 7 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The Solonaway closes the Placepot, a Group 2 over a mile with ten runners on Good, and it is the race on the card with the cleanest form line: three of these met here over this exact course and distance on 6 August, and the order they finished in is the spine of everything below. The model's shares run ISAAC NEWTON 18, FAIYUM 17, CHARLES FORT 16, EXPANDED 13, AUDIENCE 11, POWER BLUE 8. The shape is the Matron's again: two confirmed front-runners and a pace forecast of 4, so a steady gallop, and on this course over middle distances that favours the leaders (1.05 times expectation) and the horses close behind them (0.95) at the expense of anything ridden in mid-division (0.72) or held up (0.63).
ISAAC NEWTON won the 6 August race, and won it with the biggest figure anyone brings here. The O'Brien three-year-old, ridden by Ryan Moore off a mark of 110, "sat behind the front pack, third at halfway, asked for effort inside final 2f to move into second, hit the front close to the line and stayed on", earning a 204 that stands as the largest last-time figure in the field, with AUDIENCE third and COWARDOFTHECOUNTY fifth behind him. His course figure of 175 is the best in the race and his figure at the trip, 158, is second only to AUDIENCE's. His trend reads +18 and his consistency 24. The honest entries: he starts from stall 10, the widest of the ten; his recorded style is mid-division, which is the 0.72 cell here, though the comment from his win shows him sitting third at halfway rather than at the back; and two runs earlier he was "very slow into stride, lost many lengths" at the Curragh. On the day he broke on terms, he ran the number that tops this race, and as a two-year-old he was fourth in a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud over a mile and a quarter on Soft behind Pierre Bonnard and A Boy Named Susie, both of whom run today.
FAIYUM is the engine's horse and the value in the model's order. A four-year-old filly for Ger Lyons, ridden by Colin Keane off 105, she was second at the Curragh over a mile and a furlong on Good a fortnight ago with a 136, "set the pace, clear by two lengths approaching 2f out, pressed for effort inside final furlong then overtaken 150 yards from home", and back in May she produced a 226 at Gowran over a mile and a furlong on Good To Soft when beaten as favourite, "led after 2f, ridden under 2f out, headed 1f out". That 226 is the biggest figure anyone in this field has recorded, and it is four months old, which we say plainly. The engine's running estimate of her ability is the highest in the race at 111, her operating level of 112 likewise, and she races prominently from stall 2, which is the running style and the draw the course rewards. Consistency of 45 and only fourteen days since her last run are the reservations.
AUDIENCE is the danger from the key race. The seven-year-old, off 106 for David O'Meara with W J Lee riding in hood and cheekpieces, set the pace on 6 August and held on for third with a 199, the second-biggest last-time figure here, "opened a big advantage by the midpoint, pressed for effort inside the final two furlongs and overtaken close to home", and he owns the best figure at the trip (164) and the second-best course figure (155) with a trend of +44; the pattern in his last three is that he is caught late every time. CHARLES FORT is the improver: O'Brien's second string, ridden by Christophe Soumillon off 102, second at the Curragh over a mile and a quarter on Good in August with a 176 from the front after only six career runs, a trend of +29, and a leader from stall 1, which our study rates at 1.06; he has no course or distance form and steps up in class. QUDDWAH carries the highest official mark in the race at 114 for the Crisfords and James Doyle, and he is a genuine Group-class miler: fourth in the Prix Jacques le Marois in 2024, a Group 3 winner at Chantilly last July, second in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein at Longchamp last October, then two wins at Meydan over the winter. The problem is that he has not run for 168 days, and his most recent form is on the UAE scale. POWER BLUE has the second-best going figure (151) and the best pedigree number here (dam's progeny 120) but was "fading sharply" to twelfth at York last time. EXPANDED is the model's fourth on 13 after 118 days off and figures of 188, 87 and 53 in descending order, and COWARDOFTHECOUNTY owns the best going figure (152) but is held up.
The 6 August race is the form, and ISAAC NEWTON won it with the largest figure in the field on this track over this trip. FAIYUM has the engine's confidence, the biggest figure of the season and the style the course likes. AUDIENCE is the danger who keeps getting caught; CHARLES FORT is the one who could steal it from the front.
The full field
Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1)
1m2f | Class 1 Group 1 | 8 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The feature. Eight runners for the Irish Champion Stakes over a mile and a quarter on Good, and the model's order is CONSTITUTION RIVER 19, A BOY NAMED SUSIE 16, HAWK MOUNTAIN and ALMAQAM 13, HOTAZHELL and ITEM 11, WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE 9, LAMBOURN 7. Half the field are confirmed front-runners and the pace forecast is 6, so the gallop should be honest, and on this course over middle distances that suits the leaders (1.05 times expectation) and the horses close behind them (0.95) over anything ridden from the back (0.63). What makes this race readable is that the field has already raced against itself three times. At Chantilly on 31 May in the Prix du Jockey Club, CONSTITUTION RIVER beat HAWK MOUNTAIN by three-quarters of a length with A BOY NAMED SUSIE fourth, beaten under three lengths. At Sandown on 4 July over this trip on Good To Firm, CONSTITUTION RIVER beat A BOY NAMED SUSIE and HAWK MOUNTAIN again. And at York on 19 August over a mile and a quarter on Good, ITEM beat ALMAQAM and CONSTITUTION RIVER, with HAWK MOUNTAIN sixth.
CONSTITUTION RIVER is the model's top and the horse who has beaten more of this field than anyone. Aidan O'Brien's three-year-old, ridden by Ryan Moore off a mark of 123, won the Jockey Club at Chantilly and then the Sandown race with a 183, the second-best figure at the trip in the field, before his third at York with a 131, "settled just behind the front pair, closed up on the pacesetter approaching 3f out, roused to hit the front over 2f out, overtaken with a furlong left". His dam's progeny average 142, the best pedigree number here, his consistency reading of 23 is the steadiest among the principals, and he is a front-runner with a stablemate in the field who is likely to set the pace for him. The honest entries: two of these beat him last time, and his trend has flattened to minus 3. The head-to-head with the horse below reads two wins from two, and that is the fact we lead on.
A BOY NAMED SUSIE brings the biggest last-time figure in the race and the steepest improvement. Donnacha O'Brien's three-year-old, ridden by Oisin Murphy off 117, won at the Curragh over this trip on Good on 16 August with a 199, "quick start into second spot to halfway, asked for effort to hit the front two out, stormed away inside the last for a comfortable win". At Sandown he ran a 168 behind the primary; he has found 31 points since. His form trend reads +37, his course figure is 135, and the French database adds the line the home figures miss: as a two-year-old he was second in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, a Group 1 over this trip on Soft, beaten two lengths by Pierre Bonnard, who runs in the St Leger earlier on this page. He starts from stall 2. The reservations are a stable running at 80 against an 82 baseline and a recorded style of mid-division, though the Curragh comment has him second throughout, and the fact that the primary has beaten him twice.
ALMAQAM is the engine's horse. The five-year-old, off 125 for Ed Walker with Kieran Shoemark riding, was second at York with a 156, "upped tempo to challenge close up passing the 2f point then went in front", after winning at the Curragh over a mile and a quarter on Good in May with a 197, and his French record includes a second in the Prix Dollar and a third in the Prix Foy. He has the best going figure in the field (160) and the engine's running estimate of ability rates him first on both measures, 114 and 117; against him are the widest stall, a trend of minus 20 and a stable reading 83 against 86. HOTAZHELL owns the biggest figure anyone here has recorded, a 238 when third to Purview at the Curragh over this trip on Good in June, "at the rear, made progress on outer to 5th 2f out, moved to 3rd inside final furlong, kept on well", with the best figure at the trip (191) and the engine's second-best opinion; he has been off 48 days, was tenth of seventeen in the Arc last October, and his consistency reading is 46. ITEM won the York race with a 148, "stuck for room behind the pace 3f out, moved right to find a gap and stormed in", and carries the highest official mark in the field at 126 with a trend of +63; he has had only six runs, the two before York were an 86 and a 21, and this is a rise of five class points. HAWK MOUNTAIN, the model's third on 13, was second in the Jockey Club and third at Sandown, then ran a 35 at York, "lost momentum swiftly under pressure"; his trend of minus 49 and his role as the likely pacemaker keep him out of the bold pair. WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE won a Group 3 at Deauville by a short head last time, a 152 on the French scale, and LAMBOURN has the best course figure here (190) but was fifth of eight, beaten six and a half lengths, in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in July.
CONSTITUTION RIVER has beaten A BOY NAMED SUSIE twice and HAWK MOUNTAIN twice, and the pace map is drawn for a front-runner with company. A BOY NAMED SUSIE has the biggest recent figure and the trend, and the gap between them has been closing. ALMAQAM is the engine's danger; HOTAZHELL is the one with the figure nobody else has run; ITEM is the horse who beat both of the bold pair last time.
The full field
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Petingo Handicap
1m5f | Handicap | 21 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Twenty-six runners over a mile and five furlongs, the biggest field of the day, and a handicap where the model's shares are as flat as you would expect: PORT OF SPAIN 14, then TRUTH BE TOLD, TOO BOSSY FOR US and CANNES on 8 apiece, EVANESCO 7, COMFORT ZONE and WYMAN 6. Two things cut through the numbers. There is no confirmed front-runner among the twenty-six and the pace forecast is 5, so whoever goes forward early will get the race run to suit, and our Leopardstown study over staying trips on quick ground says horses ridden just behind the pace run to 1.10 times expectation while leaders (0.79), mid-division runners (0.71) and hold-up horses (0.74) all fall short. The other is a form line: a mile-and-six handicap here on Good To Soft on 20 August, won by Highwayman, who runs in the St Leger earlier on this page, with CANNES second, WYMAN fourth and MADBADANDDANGEROUS sixth.
WYMAN is the course-and-distance winner, and the steadiest horse in the race. Jessica Harrington's three-year-old, ridden by Shane Foley off 96 in a tongue tie and cheekpieces, won here over this exact trip on Good on 23 July with a figure of 154, was fourth in the 20 August race with a 155, "up front early and sharing the advantage before giving way after 2f, back in front after 3f, under pressure 2f out", and ran a 162 before those. Three figures within eight points of each other give him a consistency reading of 4, the steadiest of all twenty-six, his going figure on Good of 154 is the best in the field, and his figure at the trip is second only to TRUTH BE TOLD's. He is the most forward-going runner in a race without a leader, which puts him in the study's best cell, and he carries 125lb. The reservation is that his figures, steady as they are, are not the biggest here.
EVANESCO owns the biggest figure. Charlie Johnston's three-year-old, ridden by David Egan under top weight of 133lb off a mark of 104, won at Hamilton over a mile and a half on Good To Soft on 21 August with a 186, "sat behind the pace moving smoothly, hit the front with just over two furlongs left, driven on approaching the final furlong", the largest last-time figure in the field, and his form trend of +58 is the steepest among the principals. The engine, which builds a running estimate of each horse's true ability from every run, rates him first in the race at 96. The honest entries: he runs 5lb above the mark he last won from, his consistency reading of 48 reflects a 113 and a 69 before the Hamilton run, and his recorded style is mid-division, the cell our study rates lowest here. The number he ran last time is what earns him the bold type.
CANNES is the danger from the key race: Joseph O'Brien's three-year-old, ridden by Colin Keane off 98, was second to Highwayman on 20 August with a 164, "pushed forward to challenge 2f out, still in touch a furlong out, stayed on", his trend reads +36, he races prominently, and he drops six points in class. TRUTH BE TOLD has the best figure at the trip in the field, a 169 when second at Ballinrobe over a mile and five on Good To Soft in July, and won here over a mile and a quarter in May, but he is held up, runs 10lb above his last winning mark with the assessor still raising him, has been off 54 days, and his stable reads 66 against a 78 baseline. PORT OF SPAIN is the model's top on 14, and we say plainly that the figures do not support it: second at Naas over a mile and a quarter with an 88, seventh at Galway with a figure of 0, a 44 before that; the share is Ryan Moore and the O'Brien yard, not the form. THIS SONGISFORYOU ran a 185 when second at the Curragh over a mile and a half on Good in June, the second-biggest figure anyone here has recorded this year, then was "boxed in" at Galway; James Doyle rides for a stable reading 70 against 75. TOO BOSSY FOR US has a consistency reading of 3 but figures of 105, 109 and 111 and runs 11lb above his last winning mark; YOUSAYNOTHINGATALL won at the Curragh last time with a 144 but starts from stall 21; and THE REVEREND, the Mullins runner, has not run on the flat since last year and arrives from hurdles after 223 days.
WYMAN has won over this course and distance, has the steadiest figures in the race and will be where the pace map wants him. EVANESCO has the biggest figure and the engine's best opinion under top weight. CANNES is the danger from the August form; TRUTH BE TOLD has the trip figure and the wrong running style.
The full field
World Pool Bet With Tote Autumn Fillies Handicap
1m | Handicap | 18 runners | World Pool
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The day closes with a World Pool handicap for fillies and mares, nineteen of them over a mile on Good, and the model's shares are as tight as the Petingo's: DROP DEAD GORGEOUS 9, SUZIE SONGS 8, QUEBEC and TAHCAWIN 7, MALLAVELLY and AVIATRICE 6, then six horses on 5. Four confirmed front-runners and a pace forecast of 5 make for an ordinary gallop, and the Leopardstown study over middle distances applies as it has all afternoon: leaders 1.05, prominent 0.95, mid-division 0.72, held up 0.63. The form line to hold onto is a mile handicap here on Good To Soft on 20 August, which TACHOS won from THRIFTY OF DIGBY, with BELLA COLOMBIA third, MARMELADOVA fifth, PINK OXALIS sixth and MALLAVELLY seventh; six of tonight's field met that night.
AVIATRICE has the conditions figures, and they are the best in the race. David Marnane's four-year-old, ridden by Luke McAteer off a mark of 90 from a stable reading 92 against a 77 baseline, was eighth at Haydock over a mile on Good on 8 August with a 165, "sat close to the front, squeezed for space and dropped back 2f out then pushed along, unable to close final furlong", which is a far better run than the placing, and before that she was second here over a mile on Good in July with a 163. Two figures above 160 give her the biggest last-time figure among the principals, her going figure of 134 and her figure at the trip of 133 are both the best in the field, her course figure of 142 is second only to CHICA GUERRERA's, and her form trend reads +46. She starts from stall 5, in the low third. The honest entries: she runs 12lb above the mark she last won from, her recorded style is mid-division, which is the cell the course likes least, and a consistency reading of 43 says she does not always produce it.
SUZIE SONGS is the highest-rated horse in the race and the one in form. Ger Lyons's three-year-old, ridden by Colin Keane off 98 in a tongue tie, has won her last two: at Naas over seven furlongs on Good with a 110 and at Cork over seven furlongs on Good on 14 August with a 158, "settled handy early on eagerness, moved smoothly to challenge inside final two furlongs, edged in front with a furlong to run". Her trend reads +35 and she races prominently, which is the style the study rewards. The two reservations are real: she has never raced beyond seven furlongs, and she has never run at this course. A three-year-old off the top mark in a fillies' handicap who has won twice in a row is usually still improving, and that is the case for her.
BLUE BLUE MOON owns the biggest figure anyone in the field has recorded, a 191 when winning at Galway over eight and a half furlongs on Good To Soft on 2 August, "went straight into command, lost front spot after a furlong and sat second, regained control at 2 1/2f out", with a trend of +59 after only four career runs; she runs off 80 with a 5lb claimer, 6lb above her last winning mark, races in mid-division, and her profile is volatile (consistency 48). The model puts her below 5, and she is the one who could make the bold pair look slow. TACHOS won the 20 August race here off bottom weight with a 122 after a 146 over a mile and a furlong here earlier in the month, for Dermot Weld with Chris Hayes riding, on her last winning mark with a consistency reading of 10 and a prominent style: the course form is real, the figures are modest. BELLA COLOMBIA carries the hottest stable form in the race, Willie McCreery at 111 against 78, won here over a mile and a furlong in August with a 153 and was third in the 20 August race; she is a front-runner with the third-best course figure at 137. DROP DEAD GORGEOUS is the model's top on 9, and once again we say plainly that the share is Ryan Moore and the O'Brien yard rather than the form: her last three figures are 84, 64 and 86. QUEBEC ran a 144 at Killarney last time but has had only three runs, CHICA GUERRERA has the best course figure here (144) from a stable reading 62 against 68, and TAHCAWIN runs 24lb above her last winning mark.
AVIATRICE has the best figures on this ground and at this trip; SUZIE SONGS has the mark, the winning sequence and the running style. BLUE BLUE MOON is the value danger with the biggest figure in the race, and TACHOS and BELLA COLOMBIA bring the course form from the 20 August race.
The full field
The day at a glance
Where the data landed, race by race.
The data, explained
New to the numbers? Quick answers below, and the full walkthrough of every metric lives in the complete EquiAnalytix data guide.
What is TPR?
TPR (Total Performance Rating) is EquiAnalytix's proprietary rating, built from a database of more than 836,000 runs. Every horse's number is derived from race times adjusted for class, going, pace and race shape, so it measures what a horse actually did rather than what the handicapper thinks of it.
What does the percentage mean?
Every horse in a race holds a TPR percentage and every field sums to 100, so the numbers read like the model's own market. Across our whole database, 73 percent of winners come from our top four ranked horses, which is why the top of the list is where every read begins.
What is the form trend?
The direction a horse's figures are moving, measured in points across recent starts. Warm positive trends mark improvers the handicapper has not caught; cold negative ones mark horses the season may have passed by. Paired with the volatility measure, it tells you whether a profile is climbing, sliding or simply erratic.
What are the breeding figures?
Sire, sire-juvenile and damsire figures measure how a stallion's stock perform as a population: at today's trip, on today's ground, or as two-year-olds before their own form exists. In unexposed fields they are the closest thing racing has to projecting a ceiling from a bloodline.
What are the conditions figures?
Going, track and distance figures isolate a horse's best performances under today's exact conditions. A high going figure on Good ground matters far more than a career best earned in a bog, and a big track figure says this course specifically brings out the horse's best. Context matters too: a figure earned on winter all-weather must translate before it counts on turf.
What is the pace forecast?
Each runner's early-position style is profiled from its history, and the race pace forecast adds them up. High numbers mean contested speed and favour those who can sit just off it; very low numbers mean a crawl and favour the prominent. At York specifically, two decades of data say front-runners outperform expectation, especially in sprints.
What is the OR delta?
The gap between the official mark a horse carries today and the mark it last won from. Small numbers mean the handicapper has not yet punished the horse for winning; negative numbers, the rarest and best kind, mean he has relented below it. Across our database, handicaps disproportionately go to the small end of the scale.
What is stable form?
A trainer's one-month figure against their twelve-month baseline. A yard running twenty points above its own normal level is enjoying a genuine hot streak, and our data says those streaks persist long enough to matter. But hot stables still send out cold horses: check the individual's trend before borrowing the yard's.
More racedays, read by the data
Every runner, every race, every day
Everything this guide runs on, the percentages, the engine readings, the figures, the pace maps, lives on the dashboard for every British and Irish race. From 27p a day.
Explore the dashboard →EquiAnalytix provides horse racing data and analysis only. We do not take bets. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly. GamCare 0808 8020 133.