Irish St Leger day at the Curragh, the second half of Irish Champions Weekend, and four Group 1s in a row through the middle of the afternoon: the Moyglare for the two-year-old fillies, the Flying Five for the sprinters, the National Stakes for the two-year-old colts and the Irish St Leger itself, with the Blandford and two big handicaps around them. The thread running through this card is that our database has already staged most of it. The Moyglare and National Stakes principals met in the Phoenix Stakes. The Flying Five field met in the Nunthorpe and the King George Stakes. The St Leger runners have run their trials against each other at Navan, at Leopardstown and here. Where the horses have met, we show the figures they ran against each other; where they have not, we show the numbers that say who should.
This guide reads all eight races through our model, and it works the way our coverage always works: the framing of every race is open to everyone, a free account unlocks the complete analysis, and members get the live data tables underneath, the same percentages, ratings and pace maps the dashboard runs, updating through the day. Along the way we explain the figures as we use them, because the point of these guides has never been a list of horses to follow. It is showing how data narrows big fields to the two or three worth your attention, and letting you take the method anywhere.
How we read a race
Every horse in a race holds a TPR percentage and every field sums to 100, so the numbers read like the model’s own market. The engine chips show ability, current form and operating level; the sparkline is the last five race figures. Ten quick answers sit in the primer below, and the full walkthrough of every metric is in the complete data guide.
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bold Lad Sprint Handicap
6f | Premier Handicap | 24 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Twenty-six sprinters over six furlongs on Yielding ground, and the second day of Irish Champions Weekend opens with the kind of handicap where a data model earns its keep. Every horse in the race carries a share of our model's confidence, and the field always adds up to 100, so a share of 12 in a field of 26 is a strong opinion: the model has two of them, SONDAD and BEAR ON THE RUN, with COUL ANGEL and DARK THIRTY next on 8. Behind the shares sit the numbers we build them from. Every run a horse records earns a performance figure, built from the clock and adjusted for the class of the race, so that a 150 in a Curragh handicap and a 150 in a Group race mean the same thing. Our engine then keeps a running estimate of each horse's true ability from every run and every beaten length, and separately tracks its current operating level, which is that ability plus or minus the form of the moment. And for a sprint handicap we lean on the handicap profile: the OR delta, which is the gap between today's mark and the mark a horse last won from, and the direction the assessor has been moving it. Those four lenses, plus one fact about the course, are the race. And because a new reader is entitled to ask how good the model is before trusting a share: across 836,398 runners rated walk-forward, its shares sit within 0.07 percentage points of the real win rate, and its top four contain 73 per cent of winners.
Twenty points separate SONDAD's mark from the next horse's, and the numbers say the class is current rather than remembered. A five-year-old for Michael and David Easterby, ridden by Joanna Mason in a visor, he carries top weight of 144lb off 109, and he has just run the figure to justify it: a win at York over six furlongs on Good To Soft on 22 August with a 174, "settled up with pace on the far flank, found extra ground a furlong out, hit the front close home", the third-largest last-time figure in the field and by some way the best from a horse that also won. The engine rates his operating level at 110, the highest of the twenty-six, and his course figure of 159 says he has run to a high level at the Curragh before. He is a confirmed front-runner, and a Curragh sprint is the one place in our whole study where that matters most: leaders run to 1.21 times expectation on quick ground and to expectation on softer ground, while horses held up at the back run to barely half their share. Against him: he is 5lb higher than his last winning mark and the assessor is still raising him, the stable's one-month form of 80 against a 78 baseline is lukewarm at best, and 144lb is a lot to carry through a twenty-six-runner charge.
Half of this field has already been beaten by BEAR ON THE RUN, three weeks ago, over this course and distance. Daniel Murphy's three-year-old, ridden by Shane Foley off 89, has run three times in his life and won twice, the second of them here over this six furlongs on Good three weeks ago with a 150, "pushed along to move into contention with 1 1/2f left and up to 3rd inside the final furlong", a race in which GENESIS was third and KEKE fourth, beaten about a length. His form trend, the direction his figures are moving across recent starts, reads +37; he runs just 2lb above the mark he last won from, which is as close to a treated horse as a handicap gets; and his stable is the hottest here, 104 against a 75 baseline. He too likes to lead, from a middle stall. The reservations are the two things a three-run horse cannot yet answer: he has never raced on softer ground, and this is a rise of three class points.
Three others carry data worth knowing. UNIQUE JOURNEY, from the same Murphy yard, ran the biggest last-time figure in the race, a 178 when second at Galway over seven furlongs on Good To Soft in August, with a trend of +56; he is 6lb above his last win and his figures swing widely (a consistency reading of 46, where lower is steadier), and he was hampered here in May. KEKE is the opposite profile: the steadiest horse in the field with a consistency reading of 11, figures of 157 and 155 in his last two, 2lb below his last winning mark, and Edward Lynam's yard warming up at 94 against 72; he is ridden in mid-division, which is the running style the Curragh study likes least. THE PIPERS CALL owns the best going figure in the race, a 155 when winning here over six and a half furlongs on Good To Soft in June, from a mark of 77 that has only four runs behind it, and he has been off 78 days. COUL ANGEL, on 8 with the model, ran a 150 at York behind SONDAD but was held up that day, and from stall 19 that is the hardest way to win a Curragh sprint.
SONDAD has the mark, the figure, the engine's highest level and the running style the course rewards; BEAR ON THE RUN has the course-and-distance win, the treated profile and the yard in form. UNIQUE JOURNEY is the danger on figures, KEKE on consistency.
The full field
Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sales Stakes
6½f | Sales Stakes, 2yo | 15 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Sixteen two-year-olds over six and a half furlongs for one of the richest sales races in Ireland, and a field that lets us show two very different kinds of data at work: hard form figures for the eleven that have raced, and breeding figures for the five that have not. The model's shares run STAR OF STATE 31, ATLANTIC BRIDGE 18, MEHMAS STAR 15, LORD RAGNAR 7, SWITCHING SIDES 6, and it is worth pausing on that 31, because only two horses on the whole card, in the Moyglare and the Irish St Leger, are given bigger shares. For the unraced, our breeding figures do the work the form book cannot: every sire and damsire in our database carries a progeny average, the mean performance figure of all their runners, plus a separate juvenile figure for how their two-year-olds run, and every dam carries the average of her own foals. Those numbers are how a data model prices a horse that has never seen a racecourse, and the same sire, dam and damsire averages sit beside every horse on our race cards, raced or not.
Every measure the engine uses lands on the same horse here. STAR OF STATE, Joseph O'Brien's colt, ridden by Ryan Moore, runs off an official mark of 107, twelve points clear of the next horse, and drops four class points into this from the Group company he has been keeping: second at Fairyhouse over six furlongs on Good in July with a 164, then a win at Leopardstown over this six and a half furlongs on Good with a 143, then second at York over six furlongs on Good To Soft on 20 August with a 106, "settled handy early, sat third for much of the trip, hit the front two out, urged forward entering the last furlong". The engine's running estimate of his current operating level is 104, the highest in the field, and his figure at today's trip, 143, is the best anyone here has recorded at it. The doubt is the shape of those three numbers: 164, then 143, then 106, a form trend of minus 29. Either York on softer ground was a blip, or the early promise is levelling off. The model, and the mark, say blip.
A debutant is the second bold name in a sales race, and the breeding data is the reason: THE WINDHOVER has never run. Andrew Slattery trains and rides, and his stable form, the one-month figure against the twelve-month baseline, reads 105 against 73, the biggest improvement of any yard in the race. The sire is Persian Force, whose progeny average of 91 is the best sire figure in the field, and whose two-year-olds average the same 91, which matters here because plenty of stallions get later-maturing stock; his are ready now. The dam's progeny average 82, which is respectable rather than remarkable. Put plainly: among the five unraced horses, this is the one whose pedigree says it can run to a figure in the 90s first time, from a yard whose horses are currently running above themselves. It is a breeding read, not a form read, and the price will reflect that. TREASURER, also by Persian Force, has the same sire figure but four runs that top out at 101.
The raced dangers are two horses with one big number each. MEHMAS STAR ran once, at Carlisle over six furlongs on Good on 27 August, and earned a 166, "shaken up to hit the front a furlong out, driven inside the last but found nothing more when overtaken": the biggest turf figure recorded last time by anyone in the field, from a Karl Burke yard at 99 against 104, and his dam's progeny average 166, the best dam number here. LORD RAGNAR went one better on the clock, a 187 when "narrowly touched off" at Southwell on 27 August, but that was on the synthetic surface, he is rated only 78, and Ed Dunlop's stable reads 75 against 81. ATLANTIC BRIDGE is the model's second on 18 and the steadiest horse among the principals, a consistency reading of 12: fourth here over six furlongs on Good To Firm in August with a 145, then a Navan winner over five furlongs with a 138, "hit the front with strength approaching the final furlong and a half, pushed out to draw clear", with a course figure of 131 and a front-running style. SWITCHING SIDES is steadier still (consistency 6) but her figures top out at 108 and she has been off 57 days.
STAR OF STATE has the mark, the trip figure and the engine's highest level; THE WINDHOVER has the best sire figure in the race and the yard in the sharpest form. MEHMAS STAR and ATLANTIC BRIDGE are the dangers, one on a single big number and one on consistency.
The full field
Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group 1)
7f | Class 1 Group 1, 2yo fillies | 6 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The first of the day's four Group 1s is a race our database has already run, twice: SUN GODDESS has beaten GREEN EMPRESS on both occasions they have met, over six furlongs here in May and again in June. The ground is Yielding and the field is seven, and it includes IBELIEVEICANFLY, who finished fourth at Leopardstown on Saturday and is declared to run again twenty-four hours later. The model's shares run SUN GODDESS 42, ALPHA 17, IBELIEVEICANFLY 13, GREEN EMPRESS 11, DANCING DESTINY 8, CONTROLLA 5, BALLINEA STAR 4, and that 42 is the largest share the model gives any horse on Sunday's card. The rest of the ledger is just as useful: four of the field met in the Debutante Stakes over this course and distance three weeks ago, a race our figures scored 131, 128, 126 and 121, ten points covering four horses, which is exactly what the eye said. We also quote the engine's two levels for the principals: an ability level, its long-run estimate of what the horse is, and an operating level, what it thinks the horse is running to right now. Both sit beside every runner on our race cards, and both move as the results come in.
Nine points is the gap between SUN GODDESS's official mark and the next filly's, and every other measure we hold agrees with the handicapper. Aidan O'Brien's filly, ridden by Ryan Moore, runs off 114 and has won her last three. In the Phoenix Stakes here over six furlongs on Good To Firm on 9 August she earned a 205, "settled at the back early, driven into contention approaching 2f out and hit the front with a furlong left, driven out to assert inside the final 150 yards". Eleven days later at York over six furlongs on Good To Soft she was "severely hampered over 2f out with ground to recover, angled right over 1f out before rapid progress, pushed to the front inside the final furlong, pulled well away to win decisively", and the clock gave her only a 106 for it, which is why her consistency reading is a loose 43 and her form trend reads minus 10. Read the comment, not the number. Her course figure, the average of what she has run to here, is 162, the best in the field, and the engine puts her ability level at 102 and her operating level at 114, both the highest in the race by ten points or more. The blank is the trip: she has never raced beyond six furlongs and has no figure at seven. Against that, she has won from the front and from the back, and in a race whose pace forecast is a quiet 2 (the Flying Five an hour later scores 10) that versatility is worth having.
If anything makes SUN GODDESS earn it, the numbers say it is GREEN EMPRESS, and the reason is a single furlong. Joseph O'Brien's runner, ridden by Colin Keane, is rated 105, the second-highest mark here, and her three figures read 120, 120 and 131, a consistency reading of 5, the steadiest in the field by a wide margin (consistency is the spread of a horse's recent figures, so lower is steadier). The 131 came in the Debutante Stakes over this course and distance on Good on 22 August, "sat just off the pace in 3rd, hampered for room and moved left approaching the final furlong, driven to stay on strongly and got up to score late", and it is the best figure any of these has recorded at seven furlongs. On the dam's side her breeding figures lead the race: her dam, Sea Empress, has progeny averaging 123, and her damsire Sea The Stars sits on 86. The engine puts her ability level at 92, second only to SUN GODDESS, and hers is one of only two form trends in the field pointing up. The record against her is plain: she has met SUN GODDESS twice and lost both times, here over six furlongs on 24 May, when she "dwelt start, took keen hold, in rear, headway when short of room and ran green over 1f out, went second inside final furlong, no match for winner", and again in the Airlie Stud Stakes over six here on 27 June. Her case is that the seventh furlong changed her, eleven points of improvement from six to seven, and that the filly who beat her has not yet been asked the question.
ALPHA is the model's second on 19 and the only filly in the field with two wins at seven furlongs or beyond. Aidan O'Brien's second string, ridden by Wayne Lordan, won here over seven on Good on 28 June with a 154, "set the pace throughout, challenged after 3f but always going well, went clear 2f out, ridden to assert 1f out, stayed on powerfully, taking winner", then the Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown over seven and a half on Good in July with a 188, before finishing third in the Debutante, "edged in front with a furlong and a half left, overtaken inside the last 50 yards, unable to find more and just held off". Her course figure of 140 is second only to SUN GODDESS. The mark against her is the ground: her one run on Good To Soft produced a 53, comfortably her lowest figure, and Sunday is Yielding. DANCING DESTINY, Joseph O'Brien's other runner, owns the biggest single figure in the field, a 211 when second to ALPHA in the Silver Flash, and on 22 August "hit front inside final 50 yards, caught in the last strides for second". The catch is the shape of her record, 62, 90, 114, 211, 128, a consistency reading of 43, and the weakest sire figure in the race, Magna Grecia's progeny averaging 66. IBELIEVEICANFLY is the model's third on 13 and the curiosity of the race: she won here over this trip on Good To Firm on 9 August with a 164, was fourth in the Debutante with a 121, and was fourth again in the Ingabelle at Leopardstown on Saturday, so this is her second Group race in two days. Frankel's 92 is the joint-best sire figure in the field and her dam's progeny average 114, but the engine's levels, 88 and 95, sit below both of our pair. BALLINEA STAR and CONTROLLA have both been off since 27 June and share a yard, Robson De Aguiar's. The former's 190 at Navan over five furlongs on Good To Soft in May is the best figure on softer ground here, but her two wins since scored 86 and 92; the latter's last two figures are 77 and 53.
SUN GODDESS has the mark, the course figure, both engine levels and two wins over the filly most likely to trouble her; the seventh furlong is the only thing the data cannot yet vouch for. GREEN EMPRESS has the best figure at the trip, the steadiest profile and the best dam figure in the race. ALPHA is the danger on course form if the ground does not bite, and DANCING DESTINY is the one big number in the field that nothing else explains.
The full field
BAR 1 Betting Flying Five Stakes (Group 1)
5f | Class 1 Group 1 | 17 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Eleven of the eighteen in the Flying Five race prominently or in front, and that one fact reorganises the whole race. The model's pace forecast, which counts how many runners are likely to go forward early, reads 10 here, the highest on the card (the Moyglare scored 2). We publish it for every race we cover, and in a sprint it is the first line worth reading. In a race like this the parts of the toolkit we lean on change. The engine's ability and operating levels still tell us about class, but run style and the shape of each horse's last two efforts matter more than usual, because a five-furlong Group 1 run at this speed is won by whoever is still accelerating at the furlong pole. The shares are the flattest of the day: COMANCHE BRAVE 15, NIGHT RAIDER 14, MISSION CENTRAL 9, COVER UP 8, JM JUNGLE and TIME FOR SANDALS 6, and the model spreads the rest across the other twelve. Most of the field met in the Nunthorpe at York over five furlongs on Good To Soft on 21 August, where STARLUST, RUMSTAR and TIME FOR SANDALS filled second, third and fourth, and in the King George Stakes at Goodwood on 31 July, where AMERICAN AFFAIR beat RUMSTAR and TIME FOR SANDALS. Between them those two races rank nearly the whole field against each other, and our database holds every one of those figures.
The best horse in the race has never run the trip, and that is the whole argument about COMANCHE BRAVE. Donnacha O'Brien's four-year-old colt, ridden by Billy Loughnane, runs off an official mark of 118, five clear of the field, and the engine puts his ability level at 111 and his operating level at 113, both the highest here. His two wins this season were both over six furlongs and both in Group company: the Greenlands Stakes here on Good on 23 May with a 215, "in touch with leaders, headway on far side of group over 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden when clear inside final furlong, kept on", the second-biggest figure in the field this year, and the July Cup at Newmarket on Good To Firm on 11 July with a 148, "handy with the pace, moved to the front strongly 1f out, driven out and stayed on strongly inside the final furlong". He has never raced over five furlongs, so he has no figure at the trip, he has been off 64 days, his form trend reads minus 34 and the yard reads 81 against a twelve-month 81, all of which is why the share is a cautious 15. The answer to the trip question is the pace forecast. With eleven forward-goers, this five furlongs will be run at a speed that rewards the horse who can keep going, and that is precisely what his six-furlong figures describe.
The best figure over this course and distance this year belongs to COVER UP, and he earned it from eighth at halfway. Simon and Ed Crisford's six-year-old, ridden by William Buick, won the Sapphire Stakes here over five on Good To Firm on 18 July with a 190, "restrained towards the back, 8th at halfway, driven and squeezed for room for a moment inside the final 2f, made further ground amid a hard drive over 1f out, up to 4th 1f out, shared the lead 100 yards out and soon went clear to score". Read that comment against the pace forecast: on Sunday there will be even more horses in front of him to run at. His distance figure of 134, the average of his runs at five furlongs, is within a point of the best in the field, his course figure is that 190, and his yard carries one of the strongest form readings in the race, 102 over the last month against a twelve-month 91. The blemish is the Nunthorpe: ninth with an 88, "held up for room with a furlong left but stayed on gamely", a run that never got going, and his consistency reading of 43 says his figures swing more than most. The engine has his ability and operating levels level at 106, the profile of a horse who runs to his best when the race sets up for him. This race sets up for him.
TIME FOR SANDALS is the danger the data likes most. Harry Eustace's four-year-old filly, ridden by Kieran Shoemark, receives the fillies' allowance, and the engine's ability level of 108 is second only to COMANCHE BRAVE. Her last two runs were both closing efforts: third in the King George Stakes at Goodwood over five on Good To Firm on 31 July with a 152, "settled towards the back early, roused along with 2f to go, made gradual progress inside final 2f, stayed on strongly through the last furlong, moved into third close home, beaten three quarters of a length", then fourth in the Nunthorpe with a 106, "boxed in over a furlong out, shifted left and kept meeting traffic inside the final furlong, found room and finished strongly in the last 75yds". NIGHT RAIDER is the model's second on 14 and the steadiest horse in the field, a consistency reading of 10, with a course figure of 186 from fifth in this race last year, "pressed leader on near side of group, no extra inside final 110yds"; against him are three defeats since he won the Temple Stakes in May, tenth at Ascot, tenth at Goodwood, sixth at York. MISSION CENTRAL holds the best course figure in the race, 192, from two six-furlong wins here last summer, a maiden with a 202 and the Round Tower Stakes with a 183, and beat NIGHT RAIDER, COVER UP and TIME FOR SANDALS when winning the King Charles III Stakes over five at Ascot in June with a 145, but a 99 and a 49 since give him the worst form trend in the field, minus 48. RUMSTAR's operating level of 109 is the second-highest here after two placed efforts, second in the King George with a 159 and third in the Nunthorpe, and STARLUST, second in the Nunthorpe, carries the strongest trend among the principals. CHARLES DARWIN owns the biggest single figure in the race, a 217 in the Committed Stakes at Navan over six on Good To Soft in April, and has run 32, 68 and 22 since; ARGENTINE TANGO's 190 came at Ayr on Soft, and she is the one to reconsider if the rain arrives.
COMANCHE BRAVE has the mark, the engine's highest levels and a 215 at this track; the pace answers the trip. COVER UP has the best figure at the course and distance this year, the run style the race favours and a yard in form. TIME FOR SANDALS is the closer with the second-best ability level, NIGHT RAIDER the consistency case, and MISSION CENTRAL the big course figure with the worst trend.
The full field
Goffs Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (Group 1)
7f | Class 1 Group 1, 2yo colts | 8 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Seven furlongs, Group 1, eight two-year-old colts, and a race our database has largely run already. FLORIDA BAY beat FOLSOM BLUES in the Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown in July. GIANT SEQUOIA beat FLORIDA BAY by a short margin in the Futurity Stakes over this course and distance three weeks ago. DR RASCAL beat HAFFNER in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, and HAFFNER beat TREAN in the Acomb at York. And FOLSOM BLUES's biggest figure, a 202, came when he finished a length and a quarter behind SUN GODDESS in the Phoenix Stakes, which is to say that the filly we make the strongest anchor on this card has already measured the top-rated colt in this one. The model's shares run HAFFNER 21, FOLSOM BLUES 18, MONOGRAM 15, GIANT SEQUOIA 14, FLORIDA BAY 11, TREAN 11, DR RASCAL 11, and this is a race where we should be plain about a disagreement inside our own data. The model's top, HAFFNER, has the lowest engine levels and the lowest peak figure of the principals. The figures point to FOLSOM BLUES and the course form to GIANT SEQUOIA, and that is where we go.
The highest mark and the highest engine levels in the field belong to a colt beaten in his last two, and that is the point about FOLSOM BLUES: the defeats came at the top level. He runs off 113, the engine puts his ability level at 95 and his operating level at 103, both the highest here, and Joseph O'Brien's colt, ridden by Joey Sheridan, was second in the Tyros over seven and a half furlongs on Good with a 198, then second in the Phoenix over six on Good To Firm with a 202, "held a midfield position, asked for effort 2f out sitting 4th and drifted left to move into 2nd inside the final 150 yards, stayed on strongly to finish 2nd beaten a length and a quarter". Those are the two biggest figures in the field bar one, and they came at six furlongs and seven and a half; seven, the trip in between, is where he won at Gowran in June on Soft. His form trend, the direction of his latest figures against the ones before, is plus 47, the steepest climb in the race, and his course figure of 149 is the best here. Two doubts. His consistency reading of 43 says the figures have swung (95 on debut, then 109, 198, 202), which is what a fast-improving two-year-old looks like as much as a volatile one. And he is held up, in a race the pace forecast scores a modest 4, so he will need the leaders to go hard enough. He has not yet beaten FLORIDA BAY. He has been within a length and a quarter of SUN GODDESS, the highest-rated two-year-old on the card.
All three of GIANT SEQUOIA's runs have been over this course and distance, which makes him the course specialist in the most literal sense. Aidan O'Brien's Frankel colt, ridden by Ryan Moore, was third on debut on Good To Yielding on 3 June with a 118, "raced in third, pushed along under 3f out, headway under 2f out, no impression final 110yds", won a maiden on Good To Firm on 27 June with an 89, and then won the Futurity on Good on 22 August with a 158, "sat just behind the front group early, third at halfway, nudged into second by the rail with 2f left, closed in with a furlong to run, locked together inside the final 100 yards, edged ahead 50 yards out and stayed on strongly to prevail". The horse he edged was FLORIDA BAY, who owns the biggest figure in this field, and that is the whole case in a sentence. His form trend is plus 20, Frankel's progeny figure of 92 is the joint-best sire number in the race, and he has the yard's first jockey. Against him: his dam, Pink Dogwood, has a progeny average of 58, the weakest dam figure here; his softer-ground figure is that 118 on debut; and the engine's levels, 85 and 89, sit below FOLSOM BLUES, FLORIDA BAY and DR RASCAL. He is the course form. He is not yet the figures.
FLORIDA BAY owns the biggest figure in the race and is the danger the numbers refuse to put down. Aidan O'Brien's Mehmas colt, ridden by Ronan Whelan, won the Tyros over seven and a half on Good with a 207, beating FOLSOM BLUES, and lost the Futurity by a short margin to GIANT SEQUOIA with a 154, "set the pace early, asked for effort with 2f left, challenged inside final furlong, overtaken in the last strides, battled back but denied by a short margin". The engine's levels, 94 and 99, are second only to FOLSOM BLUES, his distance figure of 150 is the best in the field, his dam's progeny average 125, and he races prominently, which in a race with a quiet pace forecast is where you want to be. He is rated 106, the lowest mark among the principals, and he is the third of the yard's three on jockey bookings. HAFFNER is the model's top on 21 and we have said why we do not follow it. The Acomb winner, "driven into command inside final 2f, urged strongly, stayed on strongly from 1f out, edged clear in the closing stages to score", earned a 104 for it, was second to DR RASCAL in the Vintage with a 141, and his engine levels of 84 and 91 are the lowest of the principals. What he has is a front-running style in a slow race, a mark of 111, and a sire, Justify, whose two-year-olds average 100, the best juvenile sire figure here. DR RASCAL is unbeaten in three for Oliver Cole: a Leicester maiden (114), an Ascot novice with a 164 despite unseating his rider before the start, and the Vintage (145). His distance figure of 141 is second-best, his dam figure of 124 second-best, and his yard reads 89 against a twelve-month 83. Against him: 47 days off, a first run in Ireland, and Sottsass's juvenile figure of 71, the weakest sire number. MONOGRAM has run once, a maiden here on 22 August with a 119, "slow into stride and settled towards rear, moved through mid-pack nicely approaching 2f out, pushed along into 6th with a furlong left, edged right and rallied to hit front late", and is the breeding wildcard: by Kingman (90) out of Pocket Square, whose progeny average 148, the best dam figure in the race by 23 points. TREAN's figures top out at 99 and PORTO VECCHIO's maiden win in July rated 73.
FOLSOM BLUES has the mark, the engine's highest levels, the best course figure and a 202 earned a length and a quarter behind SUN GODDESS. GIANT SEQUOIA has three runs over this course and distance and a win over FLORIDA BAY in the last of them. FLORIDA BAY has the biggest figure in the race and the pace on his side, DR RASCAL is unbeaten, and HAFFNER is the model's top and the figures' doubt.
The full field
Comer Group International Irish St. Leger (Group 1)
1m6f | Class 1 Group 1 | 7 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
A mile and six furlongs, Group 1, seven runners, and two horses who have won the St Leger at Doncaster: SCANDINAVIA last September and JAN BRUEGHEL the year before. The model makes it the second-strongest single case on the card, SCANDINAVIA 40, then QUEENSTOWN 19, ARABIAN FORCE 10, JAN BRUEGHEL 10, TENNESSEE STUD 8, TRUSTYOURINSTINCT 8, LEINSTER 5, and again the database has staged the trials for us. SCANDINAVIA beat LEINSTER in the Vintage Crop at Navan in April and in the Saval Beg at Leopardstown in May. QUEENSTOWN beat LEINSTER in the Irish St Leger Trial over this course and distance three weeks ago. TRUSTYOURINSTINCT beat TENNESSEE STUD in the Curragh Cup over this course and distance in July. For a staying race we lean on two conditions figures we have not used much yet on this card: the distance figure, the average of what a horse has run to at today's trip, and the going figure, the same average on today's ground. Stayers are specialists, and those two numbers separate the ones who have done it from the ones who might.
Five wins in a row can be luck; the numbers behind SCANDINAVIA's five say this run is not. Aidan O'Brien's four-year-old, ridden by Ryan Moore, runs off an official mark of 125, five clear of the field, and the engine puts his ability level at 118 and his operating level at 123, both the highest in the race by a wide margin. The five wins: the St Leger at Doncaster on Soft with a 239, the biggest figure of his career, then this year the Vintage Crop over this trip at Navan on Good To Yielding with a 214, "in touch with leaders, disputing third 6f out, pushed along 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on well, comfortably", the Saval Beg over this trip at Leopardstown on Good with a 160, "led under 2f out, faced challenge inside final furlong, ridden and kept on well towards finish, always doing enough", the Gold Cup at Ascot over two and a half miles with a 151, and the Goodwood Cup over two miles on Good with a 207. His distance figure of 175 is the best in the field and his going figure of 168 is second only to TENNESSEE STUD. His form trend is plus 23. The reservations are small ones: he has never run at the Curragh, he has been off 47 days, and a consistency reading of 24 says his figures move around more than his results do. He has beaten LEINSTER twice this year, by a distance on the figures both times.
Take SCANDINAVIA out of the picture and the figures point one way, at TRUSTYOURINSTINCT, whose numbers at this track are the biggest in the field. Joseph O'Brien's six-year-old, ridden by Declan McDonogh, runs off 113, the third-highest mark, with engine levels of 105 and 107, third-highest on both. His two biggest figures this year came here in defeat over shorter trips: a 214 when second in the Orby over a mile and a half on Good in May, "towards rear, headway when switched left and on outer under 2f out, went second final 110yds, no match for winner", and a 243 when second in the International Stakes over a mile and a quarter on Good in June, "chased leaders, ridden in 3rd 2f out, moved into 2nd inside final furlong, no impression on winner, stayed on well close home". That 243 is the largest single figure in this race. Then he stepped up to this trip and won the Curragh Cup on Good To Firm in July with a 160, beating TENNESSEE STUD. His course figure, 216, is the best in the field by twenty points, and his form trend of plus 44 is the steepest. The catch is the consistency reading, 70, the loosest profile in this field: his figures run 204, 214, 72, 243, 160 this year, and the 72 came in a small race at Gowran. He has been off 56 days. The case is simple: the best horse at this track on our numbers, proven at the trip here, meeting a rival who has never seen the place.
JAN BRUEGHEL is the class danger. Aidan O'Brien's five-year-old, ridden by Ronan Whelan, runs off 120, the second-highest mark, and the engine has him at 115 and 115, second on both. He won the 2024 St Leger, last year's Coronation Cup with a 209, and this year's Ormonde at Chester over thirteen and a half furlongs with a 221, "dropped to rear after 3f, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and ran on final 110yds". Since then a 104 when second in the Coronation Cup, "sweating, in rear, headway over 3f out, ridden and chased clear leader over 1f out, no impression", and a 151 when fourth in the Hardwicke. He has been off 85 days, his form trend is minus 32, and he has not raced at a mile and six since Doncaster two years ago. QUEENSTOWN is the model's second on 19 and the Trial winner: Aidan O'Brien's six-year-old, ridden by Wayne Lordan, won over this course and distance on Good on 22 August with a 167, "regained command at two and a half out and pushed along with two remaining, took control approaching the final furlong and a half, stayed on strongly to the line", after finishing sixth in this race last year. His trend is plus 34 and there is French form on his record too, a 231 when second at Saint-Cloud over fifteen and a half furlongs on Soft last October, though French figures run hot on our scale and we quote them with that caveat. He is rated 110 and his consistency reading is 54. TENNESSEE STUD, Joseph O'Brien's other runner, has the best going figure in the field, 184, and the second-best course figure, 196, from fourth in last year's Irish Derby with a 224, but this year reads 93 and 125, sixth in the Curragh Cup, and he wears cheekpieces for the first time. ARABIAN FORCE comes from a William Haggas yard reading 108 against 99, but his last run, third in the Silver Cup at York over this trip, produced a 53, "driven 2f out but soon overtaken and found nothing more in the final furlong", and his trend is minus 44. LEINSTER has been beaten by SCANDINAVIA twice and QUEENSTOWN once this year, and was ninth in this race last year.
SCANDINAVIA has the mark, both engine levels, the best distance figure and five wins in a row, two of them over horses in this field; the Curragh is the only thing he has not done. TRUSTYOURINSTINCT has the biggest figures in the race, the best course figure by twenty points and a win at the trip here in July. JAN BRUEGHEL is the class off a long break, QUEENSTOWN the trial winner, TENNESSEE STUD the going figure.
The full field
Moyglare Jewels Blandford Stakes (Group 2)
1m2f | Class 1 Group 2, fillies and mares | 10 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Three of these fillies finished third, fourth and fifth in the Pretty Polly over this course and distance in June, and our figures do not agree with the order they finished in: RED LETTER third with a 215, THUNDERING ON fourth with a 194, WEMIGHTAKEDLONGWAY fifth with a 205. That disagreement is the way into the Blandford, a mile and a quarter Group 2 for ten fillies and mares and the first race of the day outside the Placepot. A performance figure measures what a horse actually ran to, adjusted for the class of the race, not where it finished in traffic, and a horse whose figure is bigger than its finishing position is usually one to look at again; sorting a race by that figure instead of by the form line is the simplest thing our race cards let you do, and it is where most of these reads start. The model's shares run THUNDERING ON 27, RED LETTER 23, SYMBOL OF MAJESTY 15, WEMIGHTAKEDLONGWAY 10, then a tail from 5 down to 3. Two of the three-year-olds also bring French form, which our database now scores; those figures run hot against the Irish and British scale and we quote them with that caveat. The pace forecast is 5, two confirmed front-runners among ten, an honest gallop rather than a fast one.
The Oaks was not the ceiling. That is what the numbers say about THUNDERING ON, the winner at Epsom in June, and Joseph O'Brien's three-year-old, ridden by Ryan Moore, runs off an official mark of 117, the highest in the field by four, and receives three pounds from the older fillies. Her Epsom win on Good To Soft on 5 June was rated 162, "held up in last, smooth headway towards near side over 2f out, pressed leader over 1f out, shaken up to lead inside final furlong, soon went clear, impressive", and the run before it, the Salsabil at Navan over this trip on Good To Yielding, was rated 219, "waiting for room against far rail 2f out, switched right and quickened to lead 1f out, ridden clear inside final furlong, impressive". That 219 is why her distance figure of 207 is the best in the field by more than twenty points. Her breeding figures are the best here too: Frankel's progeny average 92, the joint-top sire number, and her dam, Thundering Nights, has progeny averaging 156, the highest dam figure of any horse on Sunday's card. The engine puts her ability level at 108 and her operating level at 110, second only to RED LETTER. The mark against her is the Pretty Polly, fourth with a 194 behind two of these, 78 days off since, and a form trend of minus 12 on the back of it. A three-year-old Oaks winner getting weight from older fillies over a trip she has already run a 219 at is the shape of a horse the model rates a class above the race, and 27 is its way of saying so.
A single number the result hid is why WEMIGHTAKEDLONGWAY is the second bold name. Joseph O'Brien's four-year-old, ridden by Joey Sheridan, finished only fifth in the Pretty Polly, but the clock gave her a 205 for it, the second-biggest figure any of these has recorded at the trip, eleven points more than THUNDERING ON earned for finishing a place in front of her. Her course figure, 187, is second only to RED LETTER's, and her form trend of plus 32 is the second-steepest among the principals. The runs before that were more modest, a 141 when third in a Listed race at Haydock over ten and a half furlongs on Good To Soft, "prominent, disputing second when bumped 1f out, stayed on towards finish", and a 109 when fourth in the Hill Of Tara at Navan, and her one run on very soft ground, at Cork in April, produced a 36 with a vet's note, so the ground is worth watching if it turns. She is rated 107, the engine has her at 101 and 101, and she wears a tongue tie and a visor for the first time, which is the yard looking for the horse that ran the 205. Her dam, Dont Ask Me At All, has progeny averaging 125. The case is not that she is better than the two rated above her. It is that she has already run a figure here that only one of them has beaten, and the market for a fifth-place finisher rarely reflects that.
RED LETTER is the danger with the engine's highest levels, 114 and 114, and the course-and-distance form: third in the Alleged on Soft here in April with a 220, third in the Pretty Polly with a 215, beating both of our pair, and the best going figure (193) and course figure (183) in the field. Ger Lyons's four-year-old, ridden by Colin Keane, is rated 110 and her trend is plus 38. The mark against her is the loosest profile on the whole card, a consistency reading of 74: between those two big figures came a 34 in the Middleton at York, "dwelt start, raced in fourth, headway over 3f out, went second over 1f out, kept on", and last time a 110 when sixth at Deauville on heavy ground. A tongue tie goes on for the first time. SYMBOL OF MAJESTY is the model's third on 15 for John and Thady Gosden, off a win at Deauville on Soft last time rated 164 (the French caveat applies), but the engine's levels of 82 and 86 are the lowest among the principals, her other form is a second in the Sandringham handicap with a 91, and she steps up six class points. TIMEFORSHOWCASING is rated 113, the second-highest mark here, and is the steadiest filly in the race, consistency 13: a Burradon winner with a 145, then well beaten in the Guineas and the Coronation, then third at Deauville with a 132, a place ahead of RED LETTER. JENNIFER JANE won a Listed race at Newmarket from the front with a 161, "made all, pushed along over 1f out, soon clear, easily", and again at Chantilly, and is the other confirmed front-runner. LILT has been off 91 days and steps up thirteen class points; SNAPRETEND ran five days ago.
THUNDERING ON has the mark, the Oaks, the best distance figure and the best breeding numbers on the card; the Pretty Polly is the one blot. WEMIGHTAKEDLONGWAY ran a 205 over this course and distance that her finishing position hid. RED LETTER is the danger on the engine's levels and the course form, if the good version turns up, and TIMEFORSHOWCASING is the steady one.
The full field
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Northfields Handicap
1m2f | Premier Handicap | 22 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Handicaps are where a different part of our data earns its keep, and the Northfields, twenty-three runners over a mile and a quarter for ninety thousand euro, is the flattest race of the day on the model's shares: EASTWATCH 9, AMADEUS MOZART 9, HIGH DEGREE 7, IRON FIST 7, SKY CAPTAIN 7, SUMMER IS TOMORROW 6, then seven horses on 5. For every runner the database holds the mark it last won off and the distance between that and today's mark, the direction the mark is travelling, and the class of race it has been running in against the class of this one, plus the yard's form over the last month against its twelve-month baseline. Those are the numbers that tell you whether a handicapper has caught up with a horse or not, and they are computed for every handicap runner we rate, not only on the big days. The reference race is the Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap over this course and distance on Good on 23 May, which five of these contested: PERRY MASON won it with a 195, IRON FIST was third with a 199, RETRACEMENT sixth with a 181, FIXATION seventh with a 165 and APERCU tenth with a 173. The pace forecast is 10, the joint-highest on the card, with four confirmed front-runners and a dozen who race prominently, and that shapes the read: this will be run hard, and the horses ridden for a late run are the ones the setup favours.
A horse who has never won is the first bold name, and the data says AMADEUS MOZART's record is a matter of company rather than ability. Aidan O'Brien's three-year-old colt, ridden by Ryan Moore, runs off an official mark of 100 with engine levels of 97 and 97, second only to EASTWATCH, and the steadiest profile among the principals, a consistency reading of 18. His figures this year read 146, 189, 92, 124, 136: second in a Newmarket novice, seventh in the Gallinule Stakes here (the 189, his biggest), second in the King George V Cup at Leopardstown on Soft, second in the Golden Gates handicap at Royal Ascot with a 124, and fourth in the Marble City Listed race at Gowran last time, "towards the back early then up to 5th 3f out, given a squeeze and soon asked for effort 2f out, up to 4th inside final furlong holding a single gear". Every one of those was a stakes race or a big-field handicap at a major meeting, and he drops five class points into this. He is ridden from mid-division, which in a race with a pace forecast of 10 is where you want to be, his course figure of 152 and distance figure of 153 sit inside the top third of the field at this trip, and his dam, Pendant, has progeny averaging 120, the best dam figure among the principals. His form trend is plus 22. The doubt is the obvious one: five seconds, no win, and 50 days off. The yard's first jockey rides him in the last race of the day.
The biggest figure at the trip in the field was run here, in May, from the front, by PERRY MASON. Maurice Ahern's five-year-old gelding, ridden by Rory Cleary, won the Keadeen over this course and distance on Good in May with a 195, "made virtually all, ridden over 1f out, faced challenge final furlong, kept on well and just did enough", beating IRON FIST, RETRACEMENT, FIXATION and APERCU, four horses who line up again here. His distance figure, 195, is the best in the race, and his official mark of 95 is only four pounds above the one he won off that day. The yard's form reading is the most striking number in the race: 126 over the last month against a twelve-month baseline of 71, a small stable whose horses are currently running far above their norm. He drops twelve class points into this after two runs at a higher level, fifth over a mile and six in the Race To The Ebor here in June with a 131 and sixth over a mile in a Premier Handicap here with a 174. Against him: a model share of just 2, 77 days off, a form trend of minus 11 because of that fifth over the longer trip, and a running style, prominent, that puts him in the thick of the early pace rather than behind it. Against that, he did exactly this at this track, over this trip, from the front, in May, and the handicapper has asked only four pounds more for it.
EASTWATCH shares the top of the model with AMADEUS MOZART and carries the engine's highest levels, 100 and 100, off a mark of 99, with Sam Coen's five-pound claim taking him down to 131lb. Andrew Slattery's four-year-old ran a 196 when eighth in the Alleged Stakes here on Soft in April, "midfield, outpaced and struggling from over 2f out", a Group 3 figure that would win most handicaps, and his yard reads 105 against 73, the same in-form stable we noted in the sales race. Cheekpieces go on for the first time. The reasons the model does not go higher: his last run was over hurdles at Galway 43 days ago (seventh, blundered three out), the run before the Alleged produced a 39 on heavy, and his consistency reading is 65. SUMMER IS TOMORROW is the highest-rated three-year-old at 102, won at Gowran last time with a 156, "soon in command, finished going away final furlong", and was second in the Maddenstown Handicap here over nine furlongs in June with a 168, "kept on well, finishing fast to challenge winner"; consistency 20, off 50 days, visor. HIGH DEGREE, from a William Haggas yard reading 108 against 99, won at Pontefract over this trip with a 192, "lost the advantage inside the final furlong, fought back to hit the front close home, held on to prevail", then a 69 at Goodwood 15 days ago when he "drifted right and lost lead 2f out"; blinkers go on for the first time. IRON FIST ran the second-biggest figure at the trip in the field, a 199 when third in the Keadeen, "ran on well final furlong, went third final strides, nearest finish", but has run 7 and 132 since, his consistency reading of 80 is the loosest on the card and he is nine pounds above his last winning mark. RETRACEMENT is the opposite profile, the steadiest horse in the race (10), figures of 180, 159 and 181 this year, engine levels of 96 and 97, and only 123lb to carry. FIXATION won here over this trip in June with a 180 and at Gowran last month, a front-runner eight pounds above his last win. SKY CAPTAIN has been placed in all four starts but is off 105 days and drops from a mile and six. ADELAIDE RIVER is a Group horse dropping ten class points, the best going figure in the field at 163, but 140lb to carry and 59 days off.
AMADEUS MOZART has the engine's levels, the steadiest figures and the run style the pace favours, and he drops in class for the first time. PERRY MASON has the biggest figure at the trip, earned here, from the front, off a mark four pounds lower, from a yard running above itself. EASTWATCH and SUMMER IS TOMORROW are the dangers, HIGH DEGREE the in-form yard, RETRACEMENT the consistency at a low weight.
The full field
The day at a glance
Where the data landed, race by race.
The data, explained
New to the numbers? Quick answers below, and the full walkthrough of every metric lives in the complete EquiAnalytix data guide.
What is TPR?
TPR (Total Performance Rating) is EquiAnalytix's proprietary rating, built from a database of more than 836,000 runs. Every horse's number is derived from race times adjusted for class, going, pace and race shape, so it measures what a horse actually did rather than what the handicapper thinks of it.
What does the percentage mean?
Every horse in a race holds a TPR percentage and every field sums to 100, so the numbers read like the model's own market. Across our whole database, 73 percent of winners come from our top four ranked horses, which is why the top of the list is where every read begins.
What is the form trend?
The direction a horse's figures are moving, measured in points across recent starts. Warm positive trends mark improvers the handicapper has not caught; cold negative ones mark horses the season may have passed by. Paired with the volatility measure, it tells you whether a profile is climbing, sliding or simply erratic.
What are the breeding figures?
Sire, sire-juvenile and damsire figures measure how a stallion's stock perform as a population: at today's trip, on today's ground, or as two-year-olds before their own form exists. In unexposed fields they are the closest thing racing has to projecting a ceiling from a bloodline.
What are the conditions figures?
Going, track and distance figures isolate a horse's best performances under today's exact conditions. A high going figure on Good ground matters far more than a career best earned in a bog, and a big track figure says this course specifically brings out the horse's best. Context matters too: a figure earned on winter all-weather must translate before it counts on turf.
What is the pace forecast?
Each runner's early-position style is profiled from its history, and the race pace forecast adds them up. High numbers mean contested speed and favour those who can sit just off it; very low numbers mean a crawl and favour the prominent. At York specifically, two decades of data say front-runners outperform expectation, especially in sprints.
What is the OR delta?
The gap between the official mark a horse carries today and the mark it last won from. Small numbers mean the handicapper has not yet punished the horse for winning; negative numbers, the rarest and best kind, mean he has relented below it. Across our database, handicaps disproportionately go to the small end of the scale.
What is stable form?
A trainer's one-month figure against their twelve-month baseline. A yard running twenty points above its own normal level is enjoying a genuine hot streak, and our data says those streaks persist long enough to matter. But hot stables still send out cold horses: check the individual's trend before borrowing the yard's.
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