A very good afternoon and welcome to the EquiAnalytix race-by-race guide for Ascot on Saturday 23rd November! This very special blog has been put together as Team EquiAnalytix will be live on course throughout the afternoon supporting our Racing Club, The Legacy Group!
For those of you lucky enough (or unlucky given the weather) to be on course, please make sure to come by and say hello in the Grandstand! As for the racing, Ascot is treating us to a competitive seven-race card, featuring the 1965 Chase and Ascot Hurdle, both Group 2 events.
For those new to EquiAnalytix, we utilise our market-leading database to generate our bespoke ratings for each and every runner, in every single race. These ratings, combined with historical statistics on both breeding and trainer/jockey performance, have proven to be a stellar combination when analysing these competitive events. So without further ado, let’s dive right in!
Race 1: Restorations UK Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race)
We begin the day with a small field of 6 for the extended 2m 5f novices’ hurdle, which we believe features a contender we should all take note of..
Race Analysis:
That horse is KLOTH OF UTOPIA, who makes the trip over from France today after winning impressively last time at Auteuil. On pure form figures, we are not able to analyse that run but these novice contests usually are where our breeding data comes to the fore. And interestingly enough, this son of Cloth Of Stars is a real standout on the table below. He is bred to make a real impression in this sphere and the trip can unlock further improvement for his powerful connections, and a chance is taken favourite backers will be off to the perfect start!
Race 2: Copybet Mares’ Handicap Hurdle
Race 2 is a handicap hurdle for mares, ran over the 3m trip. This will be a real test of stamina for these horses, especially given the forecast!
Race Analysis:
The interesting horses here according to the market are SCARLET O’TARA and BATWOMEN, but our data suggests it has them the wrong way round! The former is trained by Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole, and has proven very consistent this year winning twice from three starts. The latest effort earned the mare a rating of 119 and that itself is a very solid figure. The challenge here is that the selection, BATWOMEN, looks to have achieved more. This 6yo mare has won one from her three hurdle starts and the latest effort at Fontwell last month earned her a standout figure of 134. That figure alone demands attention and is a standout in this field. The form at that race has yet to shine, but this step up in trip looks ideal and she will take some beating for the in-form Mullholland team.
Race 3: Copybet 1965 Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race)
The first of our two Grade 2 contests is up next, first the Copybet 1965 Chase.. a race which looks to ultimately revolve around one horse.
Race Analysis:
That horse is the Paul Nicholl’s trained PIC D’ORHY. On all form and ratings, this horse looks impossible to oppose, with conditions not likely to bother him, and with this track playing to all his strengths, he looks an obvious winner.
Race 4: 1st Class Logistics Berkshire National Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
Next we head into the Berkshire National, a handicap over the larger obstacles that will be ran over a stamina-sapping 3m 5f trip. A race that is likely to put all their stamina to the test, this will require a very brave performance.
Race Analysis:
At the time of writing, the market has latched onto the Lucinda Russell trained INIS OIRR. A strong case can obviously be made as Lucinda has such a habit of getting this long-distance chasers to continue improving, and with this horse having had a couple of runs so far this year, his fitness is assured. The challenge with him is his ratings just don’t align with the market support, and therefore he looks vulnerable.
SLIPWAY heads the table for the Ben Pauling team and is a fascinating contender here after returning to action only recently in the Cross Country chase at Cheltenham. That wouldn’t have been his target, and therefore with fitness on his side he can run well at a price here. The issue I have is that despite these runs, he still remains high in the handicap and that will demand a career best to be competitive.
With that, we arrive at DUKE OF DECEPTION who I must admit feeling is a fascinating contender on the day. This 7yo is 3 from 11 over fences, and made a real impression last season over staying contests. He improved rapidly towards the ned of the season and finished the year off a mark of 123 over the bigger obstacles, and posted some very solid ratings. Therefore it makes his seasonal reappearance at 3 miles over hurdles even more interesting, as it looks like a pipe-opener for bigger things… and my gut believes it may well be this Berkshire National. He will relish the stamina test, is a good jumper and arrives with solid ratings off a light weight.. there isn’t a lot not to like here!
Race 5: Howden Ascot Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle) (GBB Race)
The second of our two Grade 2 contests is the Ascot Hurdle, which this year will bring in Cheltenham Festival form!
Race Analysis:
That’s because the current market leader is the Mares’ Novices’ hurdle winner, GOLDEN ACE. This mare was a brilliant winner in March, travelling up with absolute ease to beat the very highly regarded Brighterdaysahead. The race itself did turn into a sprint late on, and therefore the Golden Horn pedigree served her very well to dispatch a good field in style. With one of my preferred National Hunt pedigrees, she could go on to be very smart this year but my worry is her ratings don’t suggest that. Her figures fall well below the benchmark figure of 100 and therefore at a skinny price, she is worth taking on.
The problem is with who? THUNDER ROCK could bounce back to form with his figures standing out in the table, but he hasn’t been seen over the smaller obstacles since 2022… and surely this has to be a roll of the dice for a horse who never jumped well enough over fences. LUCKY PLACE I was surprised to see here having also had entries to make his chase debut, and that may well tell you that this race is deemed to be low in quality…
And therefore the ratings suggest we look closely at the 9yo COLONEL MUSTARD. If this horse’s name feels familiar, it’s likely because you’ve seen him run in all the major hurdle races over the last couple of years. Often playing 2nd or 3rd fiddle to the best from Ireland, this horse has kept very good company, having 3rd at the Punchestown Festival, 5th in the Champion Hurdle and 2nd in the Kingwell Hurdle last year. On Saturday however, he will face nothing of that caliber and that leaves me incredibly interested in his chances, at frankly outrageous odds of 11/1. His reappearance was made in October at Sligo, where he finished 2nd behind Solness, a horse who has since ran well in Graded company over fences. But the rating that day of 165 is what needs noting, as that’s a very good figure for the level, and higher than that achieved by his opposition on Saturday. The horse can often be masked with being a one that finds it “difficult to win”, but this is a much lower level than he is used to and can cause a turn up on the day.
Race 6: Lay & Wheeler Hurst Park Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
The penultimate contest on the card is a really good-looking chase over the minimum 2m trip.. but again the data suggests there is one they all have to beat.
Race Analysis:
That horse is the Venetia Williams trained MARTATOR. This horse has shown a real liking for Ascot and has quickly risen through the ranks for his masterful trainer. Having won off a mark of 122 here in March, he made an impressive reappearance this month off 134 and won that race well. A mark of 140 today will demand more but looking at his rating below of 148, not only is that the best form on offer, it also shows a horse on a steep upward curve. With improvement to come, and with the yard operating at a very high rate, this horse will be tough to catch.
Race 7: Copybet Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
The final race sees us conclude with a novices’ handicap hurdle over the 3 mile trip, and if the forecast is correct, this will turn into a right old slog.
Race Analysis:
This race brings together plenty of high ratings and at a quick glance a chance can be made for several including THE BOLD THADY, THANK YOU MAAM, COPSHILL LAD & SPRING GALE. The latter just about has preference here from the figures in this tight contest, and that’s largely due to her consistent ratings of 166 and 150 on her last two efforts. Those figures might not be a standout, but they suggest this horse can go onto much better things this season. With the likely race conditions to suit, this daughter of Bleu Bresil is set to run a big race on reappearance.
Final Thoughts
I thoroughly hope you have all enjoyed sinking your teeth into our ratings for this brilliant day of racing at Ascot, and that it’s helped to find you all a few winners along the way. At EquiAnalytix we are passionate about bringing leading data insights to all racing stakeholders, and we do this via our simple-to-use Dashboard. With years of data at the end of your finger tips, check it out now and see how you can change the way you look at racing!
Or why not download our new iOS App?!