A very big welcome to the EquiAnalytix blog for the 2024 Champions Day at Ascot! For those new readers we welcome you to EquiAnalytix, a platform where we use big-data to give industry leading insights into horse racing. Whether it be our bespoke form ratings that take into account far more than the human eye, our trainer ratings or even our breeding data which spans the last 100 years, there is an angle here for every punter!
This year’s Champions Day looks set to be again ran on testing ground at Ascot, which for many horses comes at the end of a very long season. It can make this day a particular challenge for punters but equipped with our data, we look to dive into each race across this brilliant flat season finale!
Race 1: Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) (British Champions Series)
We get underway with the Long Distance Cup, a gruelling Group 2 contest over the 2m trip which sees the return of the superstar KYPRIOS. After a remarkable season, can he make it one more win?!
Race Analysis:
I often think in racing one can overcomplicate, and I think this race could be a prime example of that. He’s a very obvious selection for the race, but KYPRIOS, is impossible to oppose here. His ratings below speak for themselves and there’s an argument that this horse is operating at his career best. Having won each of his 6 start this season, culminating in Prix Du Cadran at Longchamp two weeks ago, he is looking to make it the perfect 7. His ratings are exemplary, having achieved standout figures of 193, 228 and 171 one his last 3 starts are unrivalled in this field, and being by Galileo, you know this horse will relish the testing conditions.
The main opposition to this horse appears to be last year’s winner TRAWLERMAN. Trained by John & Thady Gosden, this horse was a game winner 12 months ago, narrowly beating off KYPRIOS in the closing stages. My opinion here is that the selection arrived last year after a mixed preparation, having also finished 2nd in the Irish St Leger. This year he was very impressive and I would expect no different tomorrow.
Race 2: Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series)
Up next we have the Champions Sprint Stakes, a race where the best 6f horses go head to head.. but I have to say it doesn’t look the strongest of stock this year, where a case can be made for plenty.
Race Analysis:
The best place to start is last year’s runner-up and former winner of the race, KINROSS. This Ralph Beckett trained 7yo is a credit to connections, and bounced back to his best at Doncaster on bis penultimate start in Group 2 company, teeing up his 2nd place at Longchamp two weeks ago. He was well beaten that day by the impressive Ramatuelle, and will need to take a step forward here but dropped back to 6f should see him go very close.
The worry is his ratings are bettered here by younger legs, with a focus on the form of the Betfair Super Sprint Stakes, a Group 1 sprint at Haydock last month. That day, MONTASSIB got the better of the 3yo KIND OF BLUE, and it looks like the form to focus in on. The winner that day earned a top rating of 187, with the selection posting a 183. But the suspicion is that this 3yo can take another step forward here given his hugely progressive profile, and the breeding data also suggests this forecast soft ground could eke out even more. From the family of former winner The Tin Man, trainer James Fanshawe knows this family inside out and with leading owners Wathnan Racing swooping in to purchase the horse, he is set for a very big run here.
Race 3: Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series)
Race 3 is the Fillies & Mares Stakes and features a very competitive field of 14 to go to post over the extended 1m 3f trip. The 3yo filly KALPANA has been the focus for many, but is she vulnerable?
Race Analysis:
The data suggests that the answer is yes. KALPANA has been very impressive and risen from a mark of 78 in April, to today’s mark of 113. Last time out she was very strong at the finish at Kempton and has recorded ratings of 132, 162 and 136 on her last 3 efforts. That level of form is strong, but it doesn’t quite shout Group 1 strong, and her pedigree is bettered by several of these.
On ratings, you have to be drawn by the Aiden O’Brien pair, WINGSPAN and CONTENT. The former arrives off a rating of 170 last time out when 2nd in the Blindfold Stakes at Curragh, with the latter boasting recent figures of 152, 165 and 126, whilst getting the services of Ryan Moore. But in an open race, we want to move your attention to an outsider in the form of DOHA. On the surface this 4yo does have to take a step forward, but she has a pedigree that gives her every chance of doing so. Being by Sea The Stars, this step up to 1m 4f for the first time looks an obvious move, but being by dual-Arc winner Treve, this filly is bred to be a Group 1 winner. Conditions on the day should prove no issue, and she arrives just as her yard are hitting top form and at the prices can cause an upset here.
Race 4: Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) (British Champions Mile)
The QEII features the very top milers of the season, in what will be a gruelling contest up the long Ascot home straight!
Race Analysis:
Before diving into the figures, we must first acknowledge the amazing story behind the Dylan Cunha contender, PRAGUE. His groom is the owner of the horse, having purchased this son of Galileo for just 10,000 Guineas. Since, he has amassed prize money totalling £114,456, including landing the Group 2 Dubai Joel Stakes at Newmarket last time out. He was since supplemented for this race and frankly on breeding and form, he deserves his place in what I view as a largely open contest.
HENRY LONGFELLOW is the best bred for this race, being a son of the superstar Minding, who herself won this race in 2016, but he hasn’t really reached the heights expected of him as yet. Last time out he finished 3 lengths behind CHARYN in a strange running of the Prix du Moulin at Longchamp, and that day received 4lbs from that horse. Today he only receives 3lbs and to be honest, I can’t see him turning that round with CHARYN.
CHARYN is the obvious horse in the race and whilst been on the go since the very first flat meeting of the season at Doncaster, he looks to bookend the flat season with another victory. He cemented himself as the best UK miler when landing the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, and on his ratings below and known form, it’s just hard to see anything else progressing by him if he matches that level of form.
Race 5: Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1)
The feature race of the day is the Qipco Champion Stakes, a race that seen some of the very best win over the years, and this year’s renewal is mouthwatering!
Race Analysis:
Top of that list for many will be ECONOMICS. The William Haggas trained 3yo has been a revelation this season, landing the Dante at York in May, before beating an incredibly strong field in the Irish Champion Stakes last time at Leopardstown. That day he beat off Auguste Rodin, a feat many horses have tried and failed over the years. A rating of 181 for that effort would see him as very hard to beat in most renewals.. but there on the figures there is a real eye-catcher here….
That horse is of course CALANDAGAN. This French trained son of Gleneagles has been equally impressive this season, and was last seen in August chasing home City Of Troy in the Juddmonte International Stakes. Regular readers of this blog will recall just how much we banged on about City Of Troy this year, with his 2yo ratings and pedigree pathing the way for a marvellous 3yo season. Therefore finishing only 1 length behind him is a serious piece of form, that can be further marked up given City Of Troy broke the track record that day. This earned CALANDAGAN a staggering rating of 195 for the effort and that’s serious form. The horse has been kept fresh and looks set to put in an impressive performance on the day.
Race 6: Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco)
The final race sees us move to the only handicap on the day, the Balmoral. This is an incredibly tough contest to analyse, with 20 horses scattered across Ascot’s soft ground all with chances.. so who wins the lucky last?!
Race Analysis:
The competitive nature of this race warrants a few pointers, and the analysis here will be dominated by our new bias data. Dashboard members gain access to leading insights on the bias at every track in the UK and Ireland over all distances, goings and stall positions. That’s why we understand for a race such as this, being drawn high remains an advantage. While that bias has reduced over the years, it’s still very much present and therefore we can begin to rule out many from this field.
Sticking with that and the figures in front of us, it becomes easier to understand why the market has latched onto the Karl Burke trained THUNDER RUN. The horse will be ridden by top jockey Ryan Moore and has stall 21 which is ideal. Ratings of 137, 180 and 166 for his last 3 runs are very good, and suggests he should be bang there at the finish. His price is getting skinny for a race so competitive but he’s ticking every box here and has to warrant ultimate respect.
Give the nature of the race we want to also look further down at a horse called CICERO’S GIFT, who might not stand out on raw form ratings, but does when you look at the all-important GOING column. This horse relishes the soft conditions and after a day’s racing at Ascot tomorrow, the ground will become ever so testing. This horse won on very soft ground at Sandown a few starts ago, earning a very solid rating of 152, but disappointed on quick ground at Goodwood and just ran no race at all in France. If you can forgive that last run, drawn in 23 today is a plum draw and back down to a near winning mark, Billy Loughnane might just get his Champions Day winner.
Final Thoughts
And that brings us to an end to the flat season for 2024, and from here our attention returns to the jumps as the first Cheltenham meeting is only around the corner.
I thoroughly hope you have all enjoyed sinking your teeth into our ratings for this brilliant day of racing at Ascot, and that it’s helped to find you all a few winners along the way. At EquiAnalytix we are passionate about bringing leading data insights to all racing stakeholders, and we do this via our simple-to-use Dashboard. With years of data at the end of your finger tips, check it out now and see how you can change the way you look at racing!