Ebor day, and the festival saves its deepest questions for last. Europe's richest flat handicap brings twenty-four names, among them a German-raced mystery the market respects for reasons our database can show only in outline, while the City Of York, a Group 1 for the first summer, reopens a Royal Ascot argument between a 50/1 winner and the beaten favourite rated clear of the field. Around them: a Group 3 where our model and our own reading politely disagree, a Melrose that stages the week's cleanest fight between class and conditions, the loudest pace forecast our model has printed all meeting, and two last handicaps where every lesson of the week, treated marks, current figures, hot yards and honest blind spots, reports for one final shift.
This guide reads all seven races through our model, and it works the way our coverage always works: the framing of every race is open to everyone, a free account unlocks the complete analysis, and members get the live data tables underneath, the same percentages, ratings and pace maps the dashboard runs, updating through the day. Along the way we explain the figures as we use them, because the point of these guides has never been tips. It is showing how data narrows big fields to the two or three worth your attention, and letting you take the method anywhere.
How we read a race
Every horse in a race holds a TPR percentage and every field sums to 100, so the numbers read like the model’s own market. The engine chips show ability, current form and operating level; the sparkline is the last five race figures. Ten quick answers sit in the primer below, and the full walkthrough of every metric is in the complete data guide.
Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3)
1m177y | Class 1 Group 3 | 6 runners | Non-runners: Expanded, Naqeeb
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The final day of the festival opens with our model and our own reading in honest disagreement, which is the most instructive way a data guide can begin. Every horse in a race carries a percentage of the model's confidence, the field always summing to 100, and the model's biggest number here, 17 points, sits on Expanded, the O'Brien runner with Ryan Moore staying north for a final Knavesmire afternoon. We are not bolding him, and we will show you exactly why. Every run a horse records earns a performance figure, built from the clock and adjusted for class, and Expanded's last three read 188, 87, 53, the wrong direction in shrinking company; his form trend, the direction a profile is moving across recent starts, sits at minus 67, the coldest number on today's entire card; and he has not raced for 97 days. The model is pricing an Ability figure earned at Leopardstown last September and the finest connections in the sport. The current form ledger says that horse has not turned up in 2026 yet, and on the final day of a festival that has rewarded current form all week, we side with the ledger.
Archivist is where the ascending evidence lives. He won at Goodwood three weeks ago in Class 125 company with a figure of 168.8, the best winning figure any of these recorded last time out, his trend reads +43, and he is a confirmed front-runner in a race with a pace forecast of just 6, at the track where our long-run study says the leader wins around a third more often than the market expects. Then the thread that has run through this entire guide series: he is trained by Hamad Al Jehani, whose stable form, the one-month figure against the twelve-month baseline, reads 114 against 109, the yard that gave us Final Objective's second in the Gimcrack at a huge price on Friday. The honest entries: a class delta of +5 means this Group 3 is a step above his recent company, and a mark of 110 means he must improve again. Improving is, on every number, precisely what he is doing.
Saber Strike completes the bold pairing on the same logic one rung down. The Haggas three-year-old, receiving weight from his elders, has produced figures of 100, 120 and 165 in his last three, the last of them when fourth in deep Class 130 company at Goodwood after a sluggish start, and his trend of +33 is the second-warmest among the principals. William Haggas has his string operating at 107 against a 97 baseline, and Tom Marquand rides. His stablemate King Of Earth brings two wins and a +29 trend but steps up eight points on class delta, the biggest climb in the field, which is why we prefer the one who has already run his number in this grade.
The rest of the shortlist teaches three different cautions. Geryon owns the two biggest figures in the race, a 221 in Class 135 at the Curragh and a 170 Leopardstown win, and he drops five points in class, but those figures descend in order, 221 then 170 then 142, and a profile can be classy and cooling at once; at his likely price he is the danger the market may underestimate, and we say so plainly. Point Lynas, our Wednesday selection who never ran after being declared a non-runner, reappears off a 209 at Pontefract with the field's best Ability and Operating figures, the engine's measures of established class and current level. But the conditions figures, which isolate a horse's verified best on today's exact ground, track and trip, print the loudest warning of the week: his going figure on Good To Soft is 32. Everything he does well, he does on fast ground. Persica arrives a winner last time with a 175, the second-biggest figure in the field last time out, and a mark of 114 that says the handicapper agrees; he is the first of the unbolded the market should respect. And Damysus carries top weight for a Gosden yard whose stable form has read cold in these guides three racedays running. When the same line appears that often, it stops being bad luck and starts being information.
Archivist's form is rising into the race the pace map hands him, and Saber Strike's is rising behind it. On farewell day, the direction of travel is the pick.
The full field
Sky Bet Melrose Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
1m5f188y | Class 2 Heritage Handicap | 6 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The Melrose is the three-year-old stayers' graduation day, seventeen of them over an extended mile and five, and this year it stages a clean argument between the two things a handicap can hide: class and conditions. The classiest horse in the race is not the one whose numbers fit today, and the horse whose numbers fit today is not the classiest. How you resolve that argument is the whole race, so we will show both cases in full and tell you which way the data leans.
Conditions first, because they are why Mythical Bay heads our reading. The ground is Good To Soft and the trip is nearly fourteen furlongs, and among the principals he owns the best verified figure on both: a 175 earned winning at Newbury on exactly this ground, which stands as his going figure, and a 168 winning over fourteen furlongs at Newmarket's July meeting last time, which stands as his figure at the trip. His last three numbers read 133, 175, 168 with a trend of +17, he carries just 122lb, and the OR delta, the gap between today's official mark and the one he last won from, is only 5lb, with the assessor's trajectory still marked rising, the profile of a handicapper the system has not caught. A class delta of minus 8 says this is actually easier company than his recent races, and Oisin Murphy takes over in the saddle. The honest entry: he is a front-runner, and four of the leading group want the same job in a race whose pace forecast of 7 promises company on the lead.
The class belongs to Limestone, and it comes with the day's most important disclosure. The model gives him its top score, 17 points, on a record our database reads as three wins in a row, the last of them the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, a Group 2 won by a nose, following a 199 at Navan that was also earned on Good To Soft. What the model cannot see is that he has run since: sixth of seven in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp five weeks ago, beaten over ten lengths, because French form never enters our figures. On Friday we told you to treat Caballo De Mar's numbers as a floor because his hidden form was good; today the same honesty cuts the other way, and Limestone's 17 points should be treated as a ceiling, because the hidden run was poor. The mitigation is genuine, the Paris race was over a mile and a half, the sharpest test he has faced all season, and both his wins came at fourteen furlongs, so the trip returns to what he wants. A Royal Ascot Group 2 winner running in a handicap off a mark of 105 is a class edge the Melrose rarely sees, and Ryan Moore riding says his people believe it. But top weight of 135lb, a volatility reading of 56 on our consistency measure, which tracks how widely a horse's figures swing, and a last run the model never saw is a lot of asterisks for a horse the market will send off at a short price.
The rest split into momentum and mystery. Into The Light brings the naked momentum: a Goodwood winner three weeks ago off a mark 8lb lower, from the Appleby stable running at 114 against its 108 baseline with William Buick aboard, and the reservation is that his conditions columns are empty, no verified figure on this ground, this track or this trip, a profile that is all projection exactly where Mythical Bay's is all evidence. Infraad owns a 181 at Chester and the biggest class drop among the principals at minus 10, but his trend has turned negative. Sharkeyboy carries the festival's hottest visiting stable, Willie Mullins at 115 against 104, and Saffie Osborne, but his figures have descended three runs straight, 126 then 91 then 72, and no yard is hot enough to reverse that arithmetic on its own. And Galilean Quality, a fourteen-furlong Ascot winner, is the fourth of the front-runners, more likely to make the race honest for our primary than to steal it.
Where conditions and class argue, this ground and this trip cast the deciding votes. Mythical Bay has banked the exact figures the day demands; Limestone, the ceiling above everyone if Paris was the trip and not the truth, is the one who beats him.
The full field
Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Group 1)
7f | Class 1 Group 1 | 6 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
York's newest Group 1 arrives wound around one race run in June: the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, where Ten Bob Tony won at 50/1 and Notable Speech, the 9/4 favourite carrying the biggest official rating in today's field, trailed home sixth. Five weeks later the Sussex Stakes re-ran part of the argument, and today a third instalment adds the specialists: a field of fourteen where the class horse is unproven on everything about the day, the form horse was dismissed at 50/1 by everyone except the judge, and the model splits its top score between two who never went near either race. A pace forecast of 8, the joint-highest of the day, says the patient horses get the run of it.
Lake Forest carries half of that top score, and one number tells you why before any other: a consistency reading of 1.6, the steadiest we have printed all festival, on our measure of how widely a horse's figures swing. His last three read 139, 142 and 142, which is a machine's form line, and the middle one won the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood over today's exact seven furlongs, with today's rival Rogue Diplomat beaten a neck into second. The record then shows something remarkable: he turned out again twenty-four hours later in the Sussex over a mile and still finished seventh of twelve. Forgive that run its circumstances and its trip, and you are left with a seven-furlong specialist whose Ability and Operating figures sit identical at 110, whose track figure at York reads 135 with a distance figure of 143, from the Haggas yard running at 107 against its 97 baseline. A hold-up ride in the day's hottest pace forecast completes the case; the shape of this race was drawn for him.
Paborus is the other half of our reading, and his page is the strangest and possibly the best in the race: eight runs in three years, five of them wins, and four separate figures above 160, topped by a 190 at Thirsk over this trip. Horses this fragile do not usually keep this much engine, and when he finally reappeared in June after a year away, he simply won again at Newcastle with a 164. His Operating figure of 112 sits above his Ability, the Bethell yard reads 109 against a 92 baseline, and James Doyle rides. The honest ledger is real: the comeback win came on an artificial surface, which always needs translating back to turf, he has been off 56 days since, and his only two York starts read a third over this trip and one poor run over a mile. The talent is not in question; the question is whether one race a year is enough practice for a Group 1.
The dangers are a study in what our columns can and cannot see. Notable Speech is rated 124, clear of this field by three pounds, won at Newbury in May with a 172.9, and represents the third leg of Charlie Appleby's strong Saturday hand with William Buick up; but he has no verified figure on this ground, this track or this trip, has been off 67 days, and the last time he was sent off favourite in a Group 1, Ten Bob Tony beat him fair and square. Ten Bob Tony himself, on 6 points, is the form of the race twice over, the Queen Anne winner and the best-placed of today's field in the Sussex, and only his front-running style in a race with a forecast of 8 keeps him off our bolds; if he is allowed an uncontested lead, the 50/1 was the market's mistake, not his. Satono Reve gets the disclosure we have given every raider this week: his Japanese career is invisible to our figures, so his 4 points are blindness, not judgement, and what we can see, second in the Group 1 six-furlong race at Royal Ascot and third as favourite in the July Cup, is elite sprint form now stretching to seven furlongs for the first time with Joao Moreira booked. And Flora Of Bermuda, the model's other 17, has won two Group 3s on the bounce with verified figures on going, track and trip alike; the reservation, printed honestly, is that her one start in Group 1 depth this summer produced an eighteenth, and today is Group 1 depth.
The steadiest profile in the race meets the shape built for him, with the fragile freak alongside. Lake Forest sets the standard; Paborus, on one race a year, owns the figures to smash it.
The full field
Sky Bet Ebor Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
1m5f188y | Class 2 Heritage Handicap | 6 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The richest flat handicap in Europe, twenty-four names on the card at publication, two of them still without riders and expected to defect, and the model's honesty shows in the shape of its numbers: a top five reading 10, 8, 8, 8, 8. When a field this deep meets a model this candid, the discipline is the one we have preached all week, current figures and fair marks over reputation, and one shape note matters before the horses do. The pace forecast reads just 5, unusually quiet for a race this size, so the mid-race collapse that handed the week's other cavalry charges to the closers is not promised here. Position will be worth paying for.
Hopewell Rock heads the model and our reading together. His Goodwood win over fourteen furlongs three weeks ago earned a 163.8, arriving from off the pace and travelling best when it mattered, and the form line already runs through today's field: five Ebor rivals were behind him that day, Tarriance fourth among them. It lifted his trend to +20.7 while the handicapper, for once, sat still: his OR delta is zero, meaning he races today off the very mark he just won from, a treated horse in a race famous for burying progressive ones under penalties. His distance figure of 164 is the strongest among the principals, his going figure of 141 covers the ground question, and George Boughey's stable form reads 99 against a 91 baseline. The honest line is the pace map: a hold-up ride when the forecast promises no collapse asks for a clean trip through a wall of rivals, though his Goodwood win came from exactly the same position.
Spinning Wheel is the form line this guide has been building toward all week. Sixteen days ago at Southwell he won a Class 130 handicap with a figure of 211, the biggest number anyone brings into the Ebor, and the two horses he beat that day framed our Friday coverage. Like our primary, his mark is unchanged since winning, his class delta is negative, and the Crisford yard, which sent out Cover Up's Sapphire winner last month, reads 102 against 91. Mason Paetel's 5lb claim buys back real weight in a race where every pound counts. Two honest entries: his single run on soft ground, at Epsom in June, was his worst of the season by a distance, and today's surface sits closer to that than to Southwell's all-weather; and he is a confirmed front-runner, which the quiet pace map actually converts from risk into asset.
The dangers begin with the ride Ryan Moore chose. Emit ran a 192 in Class 130 company at the Curragh in the spring, owns the best good-to-soft going figure among the principals at 172, and drops seven points in class; a trend of minus 26 and 64 days away are the price tags. The Mullins raid is double-handed and deliberately mysterious. Mr Hollywood arrives off a third behind Illinois and French Master in Ascot's marathon in June, dropping sharply back in trip with the stable running at 115 against 104; the disclosures are that his only run since was a win over hurdles at Galway, which our flat figures must not count, and that his earlier flat education was French, so our columns see even less of him than the market does. Love Me Tender is the strangest profile on the card: two wins in Germany, a Listed fourth in France on very soft ground, none of it visible to our database, then 299 days of silence since joining Mullins, and William Buick booked anyway. The 6 points the model gives him are priors, not evidence, and we say so rather than pretend; the reason the market will not let him drift is that this exact stable-and-jockey template won this very race twelve months ago. Opportunity gives topweight a proper chance for Haggas off an Ascot 161 and a Goodwood second, still rising through the marks. And the two big-price numbers both deserve their line: Paddy The Squire ran a 209 in Class 130 at Newmarket last time with the hottest trend among the principals at +61.5, attached to volatility of 50.5 that explains his price, and Daiquiri Bay's Ascot form is sound but arrives from a yard reading 53 against an 89 baseline, the kind of line no single horse outruns.
The Ebor rewards the treated and the current. Hopewell Rock is both with the model's vote; Spinning Wheel is both with the biggest figure in the field.
The full field
Sky Bet Constantine Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
6f | Class 2 Heritage Handicap | 6 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Every big sprint handicap this week has carried a pace warning, and this one carries the loudest of the festival: a forecast of 12, the highest number our pace model has printed all meeting, with fourteen of the twenty runners profiled as front-runners or prominent racers. When that many horses commit early over six furlongs, the final furlong belongs to whoever was patient, and to whoever has the stamina to still be accelerating when the speed horses stop. Both of our selections are chosen off that map.
Air Force One won over five and a half furlongs at this very meeting on Wednesday, and he returns three days later with the handicapper yet to respond: his OR delta is zero, the same mark he just won from. The model makes him its clearest sprint call of the day at 16 points, and the engine explains why: his Operating figure of 110 sits eleven points above his Ability of 99, the widest such gap we have quoted today, the signature of a horse in the middle of a peak. Ridden mid-division from stall 3, he is drawn and ridden precisely where the forecast says this race will be won. The honest entries: the Oldroyd stable's wider form reads 82 against a 99 baseline, so this is a bet on the horse's moment rather than the yard's, and Wednesday's winning figure of 121 needs improving on, which is what peaks are for.
Dance In The Storm is the stamina half of the plan. She won over seven furlongs at Chester three weeks ago with a 153.6, the biggest last-time figure among the principals, and drops back to six today, which in most sprints is a question and in this sprint is the answer: when a forecast-12 race collapses, the seven-furlong horses are the ones still running. Her going figure of 133 banks the ground, her trend reads +15, she is only 4lb above her last winning mark, and Oisin Murphy rides for the Balding yard. The honest ledger: she races prominently, closer to the storm than we would draw it up, and her seventeenth at Ascot in June is the volatility her price will reflect.
The dangers sort themselves by the same map. Stratusnine owns the best going figure of the principals at 144 and a 150 at Goodwood two starts back, and as a hold-up ride he is the shape danger to both of ours; sixth here on Wednesday, he is trying the same three-day double as our primary from a less forgiving position in the weights. Evening Saigon extends the Hamad Al Jehani thread that has run through this entire guide, a Goodwood winner from the meeting's hottest ordinary stable at 114 against 109, with the best Ability figure of the principals; the reservation is a prominent style in the wrong race for it. And the two in-form front-runners, Red Spells Danger from stall 19 and Toca Madera, are exactly the horses the forecast expects to make this race honest and then hand it to someone else; Pocklington, whose going figure of 151 is the best on show anywhere in the field, is the deep outsider the ground might rescue.
The week's loudest pace map picks the selections itself. Air Force One is the peak, three days warm; Dance In The Storm is the stamina arriving as the storm blows out.
The full field
Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed)
5f | Class 1 Listed | 6 runners | Non-runners: Undercover Affair
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The festival's last juvenile test is five furlongs of organised chaos: eight of the twelve are confirmed front-runners and the pace forecast reads 9, so the two-year-olds will do what two-year-olds do and go far too hard, far too early. In fields this young the breeding columns still carry real weight, so a line on how they work: our sire figures measure how a stallion's stock actually perform as a population, with specialised splits for two-year-olds and for today's ground, and a dam-progeny figure tracks what the immediate family has produced. They will referee more than one argument below.
Dorigo is the model's co-top pick at 14 and ours with it. He is that familiar Listed-race paradox, a maiden with better form than most winners: second at Goodwood four weeks ago with a figure of 150.6, a trend of +29 that is the warmest among the principals, and an Operating figure of 95 sitting ten points above his Ability, the peak signature we keep returning to today. His dam-progeny figure of 119 says the family backs the figures. Two honest entries: his sire Space Blues' stock rate just 66 on this ground, the softest link in his chain, and he is one of the eight who want the front, though at York that is a fairer fight than most tracks make it. Kevin Ryan's juveniles know their way here.
Dubai Champion carries the day's quietest loud signal: Ryan Moore gets off the big stables' horses and onto a two-year-old from Ben Haslam's small yard. The data explains the choice. His going figure of 173, earned winning at Hamilton on exactly today's ground, is the best in the field, his sire Persian Force owns the field's best ground split at 96, and he franked the form in deeper company at Goodwood since with a 151.2. The eyesore is a track figure of 22 from his one early try at York, a number to forgive in a baby improving this fast.
Of the rest, Adonius owns the biggest win figure here, a 170 at Chester, and the field's best dam line at 143, but his trend has cooled to minus 25 since; Jaan Ki Tukri's 205 at Ffos Las is the largest number on any page in the race and his tenth at Goodwood the reason it costs so little; Dance A Jig arrives off a 164 Haydock win carrying an Ascot 23rd in the same form line; and Hickory Lad represents the hottest yard in the race, Phillip Makin at 116 against 92, with figures moving the wrong way to use it. Silesia's going figure of 160 makes her the ground outsider.
Speed chaos, refereed by the ground. Dorigo's profile is still climbing, and Dubai Champion is the one Ryan Moore chose on a day he could have chosen anything.
The full field
Sky Bet Dav Reid Finale Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
1m2f56y | Class 2 Heritage Handicap | 6 runners | Non-runners: King's Code
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The festival signs off with a race built like its week: twenty-one runners after a morning withdrawal, a pace forecast of 10, and the model at its most honest, five horses sharing the top of its market on 8 points apiece. Nothing about the Finale is a formality, which is exactly why the disciplines matter one last time: the run style that fits the shape, the figure the mark has not caught, and the yard lines that have paid all festival.
Al Aali is the patient horse in the impatient race. He has won his last two, at Newmarket's July course and Goodwood inside a fortnight, and the assessor has answered with restraint: his OR delta is 5lb with the trajectory still marked rising. He is a hold-up ride in a race whose forecast of 10 promises the same early burn that decided the Constantine an hour before, William Buick keeps the mount for George Scott, and his Operating figure of 94 above an Ability of 86 reads like a horse still filling out his rating. The honest gap is the conditions row: no verified figure yet on this ground, this track or this trip, the same blank Into The Light carries in the Melrose. Momentum is his evidence, and it is current.
Double Parked owns the number of the race and one of the strangest lines of the day. Eleven days ago at Hamilton he ran a 196, the biggest last-time figure among the principals, and finished only fifth with it, off a mark of just 84. He had already won at this track in June, over further, and his going figure of 132 banks today's surface. A volatility reading of 39 and a front-runner's style in a burn-up are the honest reasons his price will be generous, and Saffie Osborne, who has ridden the week's shape races as well as anyone, fits him well. A figure like that at a mark like his is exactly the loose thread this race exists to pull.
The rest close the week's ledgers. Erzindjan is Ryan Moore's final ride of the meeting, for the T J Kent yard running at 114 against an 84 baseline, and a Newmarket win in the spring says the mark is fair; 66 days away and a going figure of 59 say the rust and the ground are real risks. Raammee brought the best spring form, twin 154s, but his trend has cooled since a York win in July. And two profiles close threads this guide has followed all week: Accredit is a Gosden runner, the yard whose cold month we have reported three racedays running, returning from 309 days off, a double absence we cannot bold at any price; and Quai De Bethune carries the Hamad Al Jehani silks that have run through this guide like a seam of gold, with figures of 97 and 61 his last twice, living proof of our own FAQ's warning that hot stables still send out cold horses. Check the individual before borrowing the yard.
The last race of the festival rewards the last lessons: Al Aali has the run style and the momentum; Double Parked has the figure the handicapper never saw coming.
The full field
The day at a glance
Where the data landed, race by race.
The data, explained
New to the numbers? Quick answers below, and the full walkthrough of every metric lives in the complete EquiAnalytix data guide.
What is TPR?
TPR (Total Performance Rating) is EquiAnalytix's proprietary rating, built from a database of more than 836,000 runs. Every horse's number is derived from race times adjusted for class, going, pace and race shape, so it measures what a horse actually did rather than what the handicapper thinks of it.
What does the percentage mean?
Every horse in a race holds a TPR percentage and every field sums to 100, so the numbers read like the model's own market. Across our whole database, 73 percent of winners come from our top four ranked horses, which is why the top of the list is where every read begins.
What is the form trend?
The direction a horse's figures are moving, measured in points across recent starts. Warm positive trends mark improvers the handicapper has not caught; cold negative ones mark horses the season may have passed by. Paired with the volatility measure, it tells you whether a profile is climbing, sliding or simply erratic.
What are the breeding figures?
Sire, sire-juvenile and damsire figures measure how a stallion's stock perform as a population: at today's trip, on today's ground, or as two-year-olds before their own form exists. In unexposed fields they are the closest thing racing has to projecting a ceiling from a bloodline.
What are the conditions figures?
Going, track and distance figures isolate a horse's best performances under today's exact conditions. A high going figure on Good ground matters far more than a career best earned in a bog, and a big track figure says this course specifically brings out the horse's best. Context matters too: a figure earned on winter all-weather must translate before it counts on turf.
What is the pace forecast?
Each runner's early-position style is profiled from its history, and the race pace forecast adds them up. High numbers mean contested speed and favour those who can sit just off it; very low numbers mean a crawl and favour the prominent. At York specifically, two decades of data say front-runners outperform expectation, especially in sprints.
What is the OR delta?
The gap between the official mark a horse carries today and the mark it last won from. Small numbers mean the handicapper has not yet punished the horse for winning; negative numbers, the rarest and best kind, mean he has relented below it. Across our database, handicaps disproportionately go to the small end of the scale.
What is stable form?
A trainer's one-month figure against their twelve-month baseline. A yard running twenty points above its own normal level is enjoying a genuine hot streak, and our data says those streaks persist long enough to matter. But hot stables still send out cold horses: check the individual's trend before borrowing the yard's.
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