Nunthorpe day, and the fastest ten minutes of the Ebor Festival arrive wrapped in rematches. The Group 1 sprint's eighteen runners include seven who met in Royal Ascot's King Charles III in June and five who fought out Goodwood's King George three weeks ago, plus a two-year-old carrying 27lb less than the older males and a pair of raiders, one French and one American, whose best form our database is honest enough to admit it cannot see. Around the feature sit two cavalry-charge handicaps that bookend the card with contested pace, a Gimcrack where the model splits its vote and an unbeaten northern colt argues with both halves, a Lonsdale Cup in which the market's shortest price rests on chapters written in Meydan and Paris, and a maiden where more than half the field has never raced at all.
This guide reads all seven races through our model, and it works the way our coverage always works: the framing of every race is open to everyone, a free account unlocks the complete analysis, and members get the live data tables underneath, the same percentages, ratings and pace maps the dashboard runs, updating through the day. Along the way we explain the figures as we use them, because the point of these guides has never been tips. It is showing how data narrows big fields to the two or three worth your attention, and letting you take the method anywhere.
How we read a race
Every horse in a race holds a TPR percentage and every field sums to 100, so the numbers read like the model’s own market. The engine chips show ability, current form and operating level; the sparkline is the last five race figures. Ten quick answers sit in the primer below, and the full walkthrough of every metric is in the complete data guide.
Sky Bet Mile Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
7f192y | Class 2 Heritage Handicap | 6 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Twenty runners for one of the most competitive mile handicaps of the season, and the first metric worth explaining today is the one that frames everything else. Every runner's early-position habit is profiled from its running history, front-runner, prominent, mid-division or hold-up, and the race pace forecast adds those profiles together into a single score. This race reads an 8, right at the top of the scale, because five of the twenty are mapped as confirmed front-runners: Eklleem, Noelan Star, Zennor Storm, Krasimir and Intense Vision all do their best work on the lead. That matters more at York than almost anywhere. Our long-run pace study has front-runners on the Knavesmire winning around a third more often than their market odds implied, one of the stronger leader biases in the country, but that edge belongs to the horse that actually gets the uncontested lead, and by definition four of these five cannot have it. When this many pace horses take each other on, the final furlong usually belongs to something arriving from midfield.
Now the model itself. Every horse in a race carries a percentage, the model's share of confidence, and every field sums to 100, so the column reads like a market built from nothing but data. Here it spreads thin, as twenty runners of this quality force it to: 10 points on Eklleem, then Welbury, Blue Courvoisier and Noelan Star all on 8, with Zennor Storm and Krasimir barely a decimal behind. Across our full database the top four percentage-ranked horses find the winner in roughly two thirds of all races, so even a thin spread has done real work, shrinking twenty to a shortlist. What the percentage cannot see on its own is the race shape, and the shape is why Welbury leads our reading. Every run a horse makes earns a single performance figure, built from the time it clocked adjusted for the class of race, and the Ed Bethell gelding's read 96, 103, 130, 133, 154 and 176 across six starts this season, bigger every single time, the last of them the best last-time-out figure in this field, earned bolting up at Redcar a fortnight ago. Note the fourth number in that sequence: he finished only fourth at Musselburgh that day, yet the figure still climbed, the kind of hidden progress a results-only reading never shows. The engine's two headline ratings tell the same story from another angle. A horse's Ability figure measures its established class, while its Operating figure measures the level it is producing right now, and Welbury's Operating has climbed to 98 against an Ability of 90; when Operating overtakes Ability, the engine is telling you a horse is outrunning its own résumé. The handicapper agrees, a 16lb rise since early July taking him from 74 to 90, and still the figures say the assessor has not caught up. He is also the steadiest of the leading group on our consistency measure, which tracks how widely a horse's figures swing, a low 17.5 where his main rivals sit in the 30s and beyond. Add stable form, a trainer's one-month figure set against their twelve-month baseline, and Bethell's runners are operating at 116 against a norm of 92. And then the shape seals it: he is the only market principal ridden mid-division, exactly where this race should be won from, with Oisin Orr, who rode him at Redcar, staying aboard from stall 19.
The model's top pick is Eklleem, and his case is the classic heritage-handicap profile: a lightly raced three-year-old from a powerful yard whose ability may sit well beyond anything a handicap mark can yet measure. Four career starts, a form line of 62-41, and a figure of 154 when winning at Ripon in June off a mark 11lb below today's. William Haggas has his string running at 108 against a 97 baseline on the same stable-form measure, and the booking of William Buick catches the eye. The honest entries on his ledger: his consistency reading of 38.7 is more than double Welbury's, almost entirely the product of one flat run on an artificial surface at Newcastle in May, he has been off since mid-June, and he is one of the five who wants a front end that will be badly overcrowded. If any of the speed horses can lead this field and survive, the fresh one with only four runs on the clock is the likeliest, which is precisely why the model keeps him on top.
The rest of the shortlist each demonstrate a different corner of the data. Bearish carries the single most striking number on the card, a form trend of +70.8; trend measures the direction a horse's figures are moving against its own established baseline, so a reading that size flags rapid, live improvement, and his last two figures of 166 and 144 alongside a rise of only 5lb for winning at Ayr back it up. But he also owns the wildest consistency reading in the leading group at 62.2, and improvement and unpredictability are often the same data seen twice; with the Ed Dunlop yard running below its twelve-month level and a seven-week absence, the trend arrives with more noise than signal. Blue Courvoisier shows off the class metrics instead: class delta compares today's estimated race level with the average of a horse's last three starts, and his minus 7 is the only meaningful drop in grade among the principals, earned the hard way with a Goodwood third off a 92 mark. His breeding line is the strongest here too, Sea The Stars' stock rating 93 at this track on our sire figures. Against that, his trend has ticked mildly the wrong way. And Jeddaal is the cautionary metric in horse form: a fine 148 when caught late at Thirsk, but still 34 points shy of his spring peak on our peak-to-recent measure, and his single visit to York produced the weakest figure of his career page, a 62, back in June last year.
The pace map and the figures agree: Welbury from midfield as the front five overdo it, with Eklleem the model's classic improver.
The full field
Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2)
2m56y | Class 1 Group 2 | 6 runners | Non-runners: Carmers
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Staying races are where a database earns its honesty badge. The two-mile division wanders, to Meydan in the winter, to Longchamp in the spring, and our figures are built exclusively on British and Irish runs, so this is a race where we tell you plainly what our data can see and what it cannot. Three of these nine have chapters missing. What the data can see, though, it sees clearly, and the shape question is the same one the opener posed: five of the nine, Illinois, Caballo De Mar, Carmers, Amiloc and the returning Quickthorn, are mapped as front-runners, a pace forecast of 7 over two miles, and only one horse in the field is ridden with genuine patience.
Start with the model's statement pick. Illinois carries a percentage of 20, double any rival, and his profile introduces the last of our core metric families, the conditions figures, which isolate a horse's best verified performances on today's going, at today's track and over today's distance. His track figure at York is 176 and his going figure 166, both field-bests, built on an Ability figure of 109 that also tops the race. Then there is the number that makes him unusual: a consistency reading of 4.8. His last three figures are 146, 135 and 143, run at Royal Ascot, the Curragh and Goodwood against three different shapes of race, and that steadiness in a division full of boom-and-bust profiles is exactly what you want under a 20-point percentage. He won the Queen Alexandra Stakes over an extended two miles five at Royal Ascot in June, the O'Brien yard is running at 113 against a 103 baseline, and Ryan Moore comes north for him. The honest line: he does his racing forward of midfield, and he will not be alone there.
The head-to-head ledger is what elevates French Master to the second line, because he and Illinois have met twice this summer and the score is one apiece. Illinois beat him in the Queen Alexandra in June; in the Goodwood Cup five weeks later French Master finished fourth with a figure of 154, his career-best with us, while Illinois managed 143 in fifth. His last three figures read 146, 142 and 154, the best of them latest, his Operating figure has edged above his Ability, and on class delta he drops five points from the average of his recent company. Every metric points up except one, and it is the one we flagged twice on Ladies Day: the Gosden yard's stable form reads 90 against a 101 baseline, a cold month at exactly the wrong moment.
Now the missing chapters, told straight. Caballo De Mar will be one of the shortest prices in the race, and our figures cannot fully explain why, which is itself information: since finishing second in the Sagaro at Ascot with a 174 our database can verify, he was second in the Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan and won the Group 1 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier over two miles at Longchamp by a neck, and neither run enters our figures because neither happened in Britain or Ireland. His cold trend of minus 43 is an artefact of that blindness plus a Gold Cup run at Ascot too bad to be true. Treat his numbers as a floor, not a ceiling. Al Nayyir's official line carries the same overseas asterisk, but his relevant form is fully domestic: third in this very race twelve months ago and the field's best distance figure at 166, one of only two runners with verified two-mile form on our books. And then Quickthorn, the other horse owning a distance figure, 162, every point of it earned the hard way, including over this course and distance. The romance ends where the data begins: he has not raced for 707 days, his form string ends with the slash that denotes absence, and he is nine now. No staying figure survives two years in a drawer.
The rest divide into a shape danger and long shots. Mount Atlas is the only hold-up horse in the field, which matters enormously if the front five over-commit, and he owns the single biggest figure any of these has posted this year, a 215 in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in May when he finished ahead of Illinois, 2nd to Illinois's 3rd. But his trend since is the coldest in the race at minus 75, his two subsequent figures reading 136 and 65. Carmers posted a 224 in last year's St Leger and a 196 at Navan in the spring, figures that would win this, attached to recent form that would not. Amiloc holds the joint-top official mark of 115 and a 189 from the Curragh last autumn, but he parted company with his rider at Goodwood last time, managed only an 83 at York in May, and the Beckett yard is running below its baseline. Columbus completes the field for the white-hot Mullins stable, climbing 17 points on class delta, a leap of faith rather than a form line.
Illinois sets the standard on consistency, conditions and course; French Master, winner of their most recent meeting, is the counterweight.
The full field
Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2)
6f | Class 1 Group 2 | 6 runners | Non-runners: Mrair
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The Gimcrack hands us something the first two races did not: a genuine dead heat at the top of the model, 18 points apiece on Marco Polo and Final Objective, with the field's only unbeaten trio scattered further down the card. A tie is not a shrug. It is an invitation to break it with the other metric families, and in a juvenile race the family that carries most weight is breeding, because two-year-olds have thin form books and deep pedigrees. Our sire figures treat a stallion's entire crop as a population, measuring how his stock actually perform rather than what they cost, and they come in specialised forms: a sire-juvenile figure for two-year-old performance specifically, going and distance splits, and a dam-progeny figure tracking what the immediate family has produced. This is the race they were built for.
They point somewhere the percentage column does not. Arapaho Gold sits third on the model at 13, and we are siding with him anyway, for reasons worth showing in full. He is unbeaten, three from three, a verified record: Thirsk over five furlongs in May, Thirsk over six in July, then a 177.5 winning Newbury's Listed Rose Bowl five weeks ago, the best last-time-out figure in this field by 18 points. The horse who finished third in that Newbury race, Agamemnon, brings the second-best figure here, which tells you the form line is live. His trend reads +18 and still rising, his sire Bayside Boy owns the field's best sire-juvenile figure at 86 with a 92 on good ground, and he is a confirmed front-runner at the track where our pace study says leading wins a third more often than the market expects, in a race whose forecast of 6 promises honest but not suicidal speed. The model marks him down for the company he has kept, a Listed win the peak of it and no Group form yet, and that is fair. But an unbeaten front-runner with the biggest verified figure, the best juvenile sire line and the track bias is a lot of tiebreakers pointing one way.
The model's co-leaders split into projection and evidence. Marco Polo is the projection: one run, a second at the Curragh a fortnight ago earning a 155, an Operating figure already ten points above his Ability, and the classiest pedigree page in the race, Night Of Thunder's stock rating a field-best 90 overall and 93 on this ground. Ballydoyle sending him over with Ryan Moore booked, the yard running at 113 against its 103 baseline, is a statement of intent. We have flagged the model's soft spot for the barely raced twice already this week, and it applies here in full: a one-run profile is a ceiling argument, not an evidence argument. He is exactly the kind of horse who wins this by three lengths or finishes seventh, and the data cannot yet tell you which. Final Objective is the evidence: four runs, four climbing figures, 123 on his Lingfield debut, 129 in deep Ascot company, 136 at Goodwood, 156 winning at Thirsk, and the widest Operating-over-Ability gap in the field at 13 points, backed by the hottest stable-form line in the race, Hamad Al Jehani's runners going at 122 against a 111 baseline. Two things stop us: the Thirsk win came in materially weaker company than this, and it was seven days ago, the quickest turnaround in the field.
The rest of the shortlist is a study in profiles. Adaay Of Scarlett, who carries his damsire's name on his page, is the steadiest two-year-old we have covered this week, a consistency reading of 3.7, backed by the second-best dam-progeny figure at 122, and his record reads two wins then four consecutive seconds, the last three of them in strong company with figures of 140, 137 and 131. Read that sequence again though: the figures are drifting down as the seconds pile up, and his class delta of minus 7 says he keeps meeting slightly easier races and still finding one too good. Matteo is unbeaten too, two from two, and owns the single biggest figure any of these has ever posted, a 209 at Beverley in April, but he has not raced for 83 days and the figure has an asterisk of isolation about it. Agamemnon's Newbury 160 gives him a squeak on figures alone, undone by the coldest stable form in the race at 72 against 86. And Hell Of A Spin's Hamilton 159 sits next to a Goodwood 90 that suggests this grade is a stretch.
Arapaho Gold's unbeaten record, field-best figure and front-running fit break the model's tie; Marco Polo's ceiling and pedigree are the danger the price will respect.
The full field
Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1)
5f | Class 1 Group 1 | 6 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The fastest race of the meeting is also, this year, the most tightly wound. One race, the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, binds seven of this field: Mission Central won it, Rayevka chased him home, and Asfoora, Night Raider, Cover Up, Time For Sandals and American Affair all finished further back. A second race, Goodwood's King George three weeks ago, binds five more strands: American Affair won it from Time For Sandals, Asfoora, Partisan Hero and Night Raider. And a third, the Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh in July, produced the two biggest last-time figures in the field, Cover Up's 190 in front of Partisan Hero's 179. The Nunthorpe is also the meeting's great leveller: it is the only Group 1 in Britain where two-year-olds can take on their elders, and the scale of the concession explains why anyone tries. The older males carry 141lb today. Pershaada, the two-year-old, carries 114.
The model puts 16 points on Mission Central, and the case is about trip as much as talent. His King Charles III win over this distance in June was a Group 1 landed against 25 rivals, six of today's field among them, and it stands as the single strongest piece of five-furlong form on offer, backed by an Ability figure of 110 and a going figure of 157. His only 2026 defeat came in the July Cup over six furlongs, an extra furlong that exposed him late, and the drop back to the minimum is exactly the correction his profile asks for. The shape helps him too. Only three confirmed front-runners are mapped in this field, and with the American raider certain to go hard from stall 5, Mission Central can do what his comments describe him doing best, pressing the pace rather than making it, arriving with a tow into the final furlong at the track where forward riders outperform. The O'Brien yard runs at 113 against its 103 baseline, Ryan Moore stays aboard, and the one honest caution is that his winning figure at Ascot, a 145, sits well below both his own two-year-old peak of 189 and the best recent numbers in this field. For completeness, his official record also shows one unplaced end-of-season run last autumn that sits outside our coverage.
Those best recent numbers belong to Cover Up. His Sapphire Stakes win last month earned a 190, the field's top last-time figure, achieved from off the pace with Partisan Hero, who re-opposes, held in second. His form trend of +45.1 is the strongest among the principals, his Operating figure of 111 has moved above his Ability of 108, the Crisford stable is running ten points above its baseline, and William Buick takes the ride. In a race with honest pace guaranteed, a proven closer with the biggest current figure is precisely the profile this shape of race rewards late. The reservations are a draw in stall 15 of 18 and a profile that has always mixed brilliance with blanks, a volatility reading of 38.6 that his thirteenth at Royal Ascot embodies.
Then come the dangers the model cannot fully price, and we name them plainly. Rayevka's percentage of 6 is built on four visible runs, because her official record contains a win, in France this spring, that never enters our database. What we can see is formidable: the field's best Ability figure at 112, the field's best Operating figure at 114, a distance figure of 146, second to Mission Central at Ascot off a freshen-up, and a stable-form line, 144 against a 109 baseline for Francis-Henri Graffard, that is the hottest we have quoted all festival. Treat her short price as information our model lacks, not as market foolishness. Bacio is the other dark profile: officially four-from-five lifetime and unbeaten this year, but only his Royal Ascot romp three days after Mission Central's win is visible to us, and while that 157 was immensely impressive on the eye, others here have posted bigger numbers this season. He will almost certainly blast out and try to make every yard, and any further easing of the ground would be a worry for a horse whose speed is his weapon. Wesley Ward has been here before: Lady Aurelia tried to make all in this race in 2017 and was nailed on the line in one of the great Nunthorpe finishes. The shape of that story, brilliant early, vulnerable late, is exactly what his data sketch looks like. And Pershaada, the baby of the race, brings the field's best going figure, a 173, plus a Molecomb win and that 27lb gift; two-year-olds rarely win this, but she is the reason the allowance exists.
The rest in brief. Asfoora, the model's second pick at 11, has warmed up on tour in her usual way, an Ascot 130 then a Goodwood 151, and her track figure of 146 confirms York suits, but her going figure on today's ground is just 71, and everything she has done best this summer came on faster. American Affair arrives as Goodwood's King George winner carrying the field's hottest trend at +68.8 and its wildest volatility at 57.3, a 161 and a stone-last 26th in the King Charles III living in the same two months. Redorange owns the biggest figure any of these has posted in 2026, a 197.6 at Windsor in May, but a cold trend, a cold yard and stall 18 bury it. Night Raider's spring double reads well and his consistency is admirable, but back-to-back unplaced efforts since June leave his arrow pointing the wrong way. And Partisan Hero, quietly, holds the field's best distance figure at 147 with that Sapphire 179 behind only Cover Up; if the price drifts silly, the figures say it shouldn't.
Mission Central gets the trip he wants and the race run to suit; Cover Up, armed with the biggest live figure in the field, is the one closing when it matters.
The full field
Assured Data Protection Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
1m3f188y | Class 2 Heritage Handicap | 6 runners | Non-runners: Truth Be Told
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Sometimes a big-field handicap has a dozen separate stories, and sometimes one race fifteen days earlier has already told you most of what you need. At Southwell on 6 August, over almost exactly this trip, two of today's principals ran the two biggest figures in this field in defeat: Say What You See posted a 188.5 in second and French Duke a 183.3 in sixth, both behind Spinning Wheel. The Southwell form is the spine of this race, and the fascinating part is what has changed since: the pair meet again with Say What You See six pounds better off, having finished four places in front. The rest of the card has to beat that form line before anything else.
The model resolves it in favour of French Duke, with 12 points, and the supporting cast around his figure is what convinces us. He carries the same silks story we told in the Gimcrack: Hamad Al Jehani's stable, whose one-month figure of 122 against a 111 baseline is the hottest in this guide bar one, and James Doyle again in the saddle. His going figure of 152 leads the principals, his class delta of minus 7 makes him the clearest dropper in grade, and there is one more metric worth introducing here: the mark trajectory, which tracks the direction the assessor is moving a horse's official rating. French Duke's is falling, the handicapper slowly relenting after a hard spring, which is precisely the moment a 183 appears from nowhere. And that is the honest caveat too: it did come from nowhere. His two previous figures were 91 and 91, his volatility reading of 43.5 is the price of that spike, and you are trusting the newest number on the page over the older ones. The stable's month says trust it.
The case for Say What You See needs no such leap, which is exactly why he takes the second line. The 188.5 is the best figure anyone brings into this race, it was earned beating French Duke fair and square, and the six-pound swing in his favour is the handicap system working as designed. His trend reads +37.6, his mark trajectory is rising, and he won twice inside a week in June, the second of them here at York. A word on the model's actual second pick, because we owe you the disagreement: Tycoon carries 10 points, and Ryan Moore flying north to ride a 94-rated handicapper for a cold yard is the sort of booking that moves markets. But his last three verified figures read 44, 68 and 65, the weakest of any principal in this field, and while the model is weighing his mark and his steadiness, we cannot bold a horse whose numbers we would question anywhere else. When our own model and our own figures argue, we tell you, and we side with the figures.
The dangers are real enough that this is no two-horse race. Master Vintner brings the second-best last-time figure, a 183.8 winning at Thirsk a fortnight ago, sits only five pounds above his last winning mark on a rising trajectory, and is one of the few confirmed front-runners in a race forecast at just 6, though stall 16 asks an early question. Explode has won twice in three weeks, made every yard at Newbury only six days ago, races off the same mark as that win, and William Buick booking on for Faye Bramley's small yard, running sixteen points above its own baseline, is the day's quiet eye-catcher; the six-day turnaround is the honest risk on his page. Sportingsilvermine owns the biggest figure in the field this summer, a 192.4 at Newmarket in July, bracketed by a twenty-first here at York that gives him a track figure of just 74 and the wildest volatility in the race. Jimmy Speaking, down at a mark of 84, ran a 178 in defeat last time with a trend of +46, a live outsider on pure numbers. And at the top of the weights, Wave Rider and Plage De Havre carry the biggest marks with the least current form to defend them.
The Southwell form is the race: French Duke to confirm the hot yard's month, Say What You See to make the six pounds count.
The full field
British Stallion Studs EBF Convivial Maiden Stakes
7f | Class 2 Maiden | 6 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
More than half of this field has never seen a racecourse. Eight of the fifteen arrive unraced, which makes the Convivial the purest test of the week for a data house: when the form book is blank, what do you actually know? The answer is more than you might think, and it comes from the two families of evidence that exist before a horse ever runs, the breeding figures and the stable patterns, plus one thing the pace map can tell us about how this will be run. With not a single confirmed front-runner among the fifteen, the forecast reads 2, the softest of the day. Maidens like this tend to crawl and sprint, and a crawl-and-sprint rewards the horses who have done this before.
Which is where the model plants its flag. Launch Sequence carries 24 points, the biggest share it hands out anywhere on this card, and the reasoning is visible in two numbers: 107 and 134.5. Those are his figures for two third-place finishes, at Doncaster in early July and then in stronger company at Goodwood four weeks ago, a two-year-old doing exactly what improving two-year-olds do. He is the most experienced horse in the race, from the Karl Burke yard whose juveniles we profiled all Wednesday, with James Doyle riding his third leg of this guide. The honest notes: both starts came over six furlongs and this is seven, a stretch his sire Mehmas's stock, a distance figure of 77 at the trip, do not obviously relish. Experience, momentum and a slowly-run seven may solve that on their own.
The secondary is a breeding decision, taken in the race built for breeding decisions. Oklahoma has two quiet Irish placings on the page, but the page underneath is the classiest in the field: his sire Wootton Bassett holds the best sire-juvenile figure here at 90 with a 94 on this ground, his dam-progeny figure of 117 is backed by a dam-form figure of 108, and the mare herself was rated 119, the kind of number that belongs in Group races. He has also already tried to make the running over a mile at Killarney, so seven furlongs at a crawl asks him nothing new. Ballydoyle do not send maidens to York for the air, and Ryan Moore in the saddle repeats the intent signal we read on Marco Polo an hour earlier. The strict model order prefers Speyside, third over this exact trip at Goodwood three weeks ago with Blue Point's strong ground figures behind him, and he is the sensible third string; his 107 simply gives us less to hold than Oklahoma's family does.
Two others deserve their numbers read aloud. Sole Ambition has run once, finished third at Ffos Las in a warm maiden, and posted a 144, the biggest figure anyone in this field has recorded, after being slow away and finishing through the pack; his dam-progeny figure of 144 leads the race by 27 points, figure and family in rare agreement, and only the one-run wobble we have preached all week keeps him off the bolds. Lancaster Tower owns the best dam-form figure in the field at 118 out of a mare rated 111, is by Kingman, and gave Sandown watchers something to like, but his actual figure was 79 and, for the third time in this guide, the Gosden yard's month reads cold. Of the unraced eight, Magwitch brings the strongest sire line, Night Of Thunder at 90 overall, with a three-figure dam-progeny number; Benjamin Hornigold ships over for the warm Joseph O'Brien yard; and My Remas is bred, by Lope De Vega out of a Sea The Stars mare, to be better at three than today.
Experience takes the bold in a race designed to punish greenness: Launch Sequence is the model's biggest statement of the day, and Oklahoma's page is the one you would buy at the sales.
The full field
Sky Bet EBF Fillies Handicap
1m2f56y | Class 2 | 6 runners | Outside the Tote Placepot (Legs 1-6)
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The day closes the way it opened, with a pace forecast of 8 and too many fillies wanting the same early real estate: three confirmed front-runners, including the Burke pair drawn 1 and 2, plus seven more who race prominently. Everything we wrote about the opener applies again, and one housekeeping note matters for Placepot players: this is race seven, so it falls outside the Tote Placepot, which covers the first six. These selections are for the win and place markets.
Our primary is the filly whose best piece of form our own model has never seen. Lady Dora Mae shows figures of 144 and 146 for her last two visible runs, a rising trend of +22.6 and a class drop of 7 points, and that alone earns her 12 points from the model. What the model cannot know is that seven days ago she crossed to France and finished second, beaten half a length, in a Listed race at Clairefontaine over a mile and a half, collared only by a filly from the same Graffard stable whose Nunthorpe runner we flagged two races ago. French form never enters our database, so as with Caballo De Mar earlier on the card, treat her numbers as a floor. George Boughey's yard is running at 103 against a 91 baseline, and Ryan Moore, who has crossed the Pennines for a small handful of rides today, takes this one. The honest ledger: she is 20lb above her last winning mark, and a quick turnaround with travel in her legs is never nothing for a three-year-old.
The second line goes to the biggest single number in the race. Janey Mackers posted a 191 at Chester's May festival, in Class 130 company, arriving from the clouds after missing the break, and her distance figure of 191 leads this field by a distance too. Underneath sits the quietest headline of the day: her Ability figure of 101 is the best in the race by thirteen points, she is only 6lb above her last winning mark, and her class delta of minus 12 is the steepest drop on the card, a filly bred for better races slumming it. She is a hold-up ride in the day's second pace collapse, which is exactly where a 191 gets the chance to land. Now the cold water, and there is plenty: she has not run for 105 days, her volatility of 50.5 warns that the 191 lives next to a 73, and David Menuisier's stable form reads 31 against a 74 baseline, the coldest trainer line we have quoted all week. She is a case built on the figures over the yard, and we make it with eyes open.
Which requires an honest word about the filly we left off the bolds, because she is the model's actual top pick. Naga's 13 points rest on a run style perfectly matched to this race, a hold-up filly with the field collapsing in front of her, and an Ascot 134 in the spring. But her trend reads minus 12.5, she is 18lb above her last winning mark with a sixth at Newmarket to defend it, and for the fourth time in this guide the Gosden yard's month reads 90 against a 101 baseline. When the shape argument and every current-form argument point opposite ways, we side with current form. The same logic cuts the other way for Silver Lake: the Haggas filly won the race that frames this one, beating Lady Dora Mae by three lengths at Goodwood three weeks ago with Folk Pageant sixth, has won twice on the bounce with a +23.9 trend, and comes from the hottest big yard in the race at 108 against 97. Meeting Lady Dora Mae on identical terms, the three lengths stand as read; her risk is a prominent run style on the day it is least rewarded, and she is the best of the rest on the current ledger. Of the rest, Rastnet's Lingfield 149.5 deserves better than her yard's 61-against-78 stable form, and Food For Thought's 168 two starts back with a +45 trend makes her the sleeper of the basement.
The form the model can see says Lady Dora Mae, and the French form says it louder; Janey Mackers is the figure the pace shape was built to release.
The full field
The day at a glance
Where the data landed, race by race.
The data, explained
New to the numbers? Quick answers below, and the full walkthrough of every metric lives in the complete EquiAnalytix data guide.
What is TPR?
TPR (Total Performance Rating) is EquiAnalytix's proprietary rating, built from a database of more than 836,000 runs. Every horse's number is derived from race times adjusted for class, going, pace and race shape, so it measures what a horse actually did rather than what the handicapper thinks of it.
What does the percentage mean?
Every horse in a race holds a TPR percentage and every field sums to 100, so the numbers read like the model's own market. Across our whole database, 73 percent of winners come from our top four ranked horses, which is why the top of the list is where every read begins.
What is the form trend?
The direction a horse's figures are moving, measured in points across recent starts. Warm positive trends mark improvers the handicapper has not caught; cold negative ones mark horses the season may have passed by. Paired with the volatility measure, it tells you whether a profile is climbing, sliding or simply erratic.
What are the breeding figures?
Sire, sire-juvenile and damsire figures measure how a stallion's stock perform as a population: at today's trip, on today's ground, or as two-year-olds before their own form exists. In unexposed fields they are the closest thing racing has to projecting a ceiling from a bloodline.
What are the conditions figures?
Going, track and distance figures isolate a horse's best performances under today's exact conditions. A high going figure on Good ground matters far more than a career best earned in a bog, and a big track figure says this course specifically brings out the horse's best. Context matters too: a figure earned on winter all-weather must translate before it counts on turf.
What is the pace forecast?
Each runner's early-position style is profiled from its history, and the race pace forecast adds them up. High numbers mean contested speed and favour those who can sit just off it; very low numbers mean a crawl and favour the prominent. At York specifically, two decades of data say front-runners outperform expectation, especially in sprints.
What is the OR delta?
The gap between the official mark a horse carries today and the mark it last won from. Small numbers mean the handicapper has not yet punished the horse for winning; negative numbers, the rarest and best kind, mean he has relented below it. Across our database, handicaps disproportionately go to the small end of the scale.
What is stable form?
A trainer's one-month figure against their twelve-month baseline. A yard running twenty points above its own normal level is enjoying a genuine hot streak, and our data says those streaks persist long enough to matter. But hot stables still send out cold horses: check the individual's trend before borrowing the yard's.
More racedays, read by the data
Every runner, every race, every day
Everything this guide runs on, the percentages, the engine readings, the figures, the pace maps, lives on the dashboard for every British and Irish race. From 27p a day.
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