Introduction
Day two is the one the milers circle: the Visit Qatar Sussex Stakes, the mile championship of the summer, meets an unbeaten dual Group 1 winner and the rival who has pushed him closest, twice. Around it sit two Group 3s, the Oak Tree for the fillies and the lightning-fast Molecomb for the juveniles, and three fiercely competitive handicaps, including a 28-runner sprint that will test every Placepot ticket in the country. Every race is part of the HKJC World Pool, with British and international Tote pools co-mingled into one deep global pool, and the Placepot covers the first six races.
A reminder if you joined us yesterday, and a welcome if you did not: this week our daily Goodwood guides are free for everyone, all five days, while we show you TPR V3, the biggest upgrade to our model since EquiAnalytix began. Day one put the new numbers to work race by race; today they meet a Group 1 with a genuine story, a rivalry our model has been on the wrong side of twice, and says so plainly below.
WHAT THE NUMBERS MEAN
TPR is our machine-learning rating, and it now reads as each horse’s share of the race: every field adds up to exactly 100, so a TPR of 25 means a genuine one-in-four share of the contest. If a horse is withdrawn, the shares redistribute automatically. Across 836,398 historical predictions, the winner came from our top four 73% of the time, and from our top three 62%.
Class-adjusted speed figures are our record of how fast a horse actually went, adjusted so figures compare like for like across races; we quote them throughout. And new this week, our rating enginefollows every horse through its whole career and separates what a horse has proven (its ability) from how sharp it is right now (its form, measured in pounds), combining them into the level it is ready to run to today. You will see us lean on these where they earn it, and when the engine has seen a horse fewer than three times, we say unproven rather than pretending to certainty. In the race data tables below, these readings appear as the Abl, Form and Oper columns beside each runner.
Convergence Analysis
Where multiple independent data points, the TPR rating, ability, form, recent speed ratings, trip and going profile, course form, trainer momentum, and historical pace-and-draw fit, all point to the same horse, we call that convergence. It is the foundation of everything we do. A horse can top the TPR rating, but if they have never been tested at today’s trip and the trainer’s strike rate has halved in the last month, the convergence is weak. When everything aligns, the signal is strong. We will show you exactly where that happens, race by race.
Let’s get into the card.
Coral Rewards Shaker Handicap Stakes
1M3F218Y | GOOD TO FIRM | 9 RUNNERS | HANDICAP (THREE-YEAR-OLDS)
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Day two opens with a nine-runner three-year-old handicap over an extended mile and three, and it is a race about trajectories. Our TPR shares, each horse’s true share of the race with the field summing to exactly 100, read HATTEEN 24, TIERRA DEL TORO 20, BALTIC FLEET 13, then CANNES and INFRAAD together at 11. Three of the nine want the lead, so there will be a genuine gallop to aim at, and the two we side with are, by some distance, the two whose figures are moving the right way.
HATTEEN is what improvement looks like when you plot it. His five career figures, in order, read 43, 64, 84, 108 and 166: five runs, five improvements, each one bigger than the last, and the 166 came over today’s exact trip, the best distance figure in the field. Our new form reading, the engine’s measure of how much sharper a horse is running than its established level, has him the steepest improver in the race, and the honest half of that sentence is that his established level is the lowest of the principals: the model is buying the curve, not the completed record. Andrew Balding’s yard is running six above its twelve-month baseline at 76% reliability, Oisin Murphy rides, and he is back in twenty days. Curves like his usually have at least one more chapter.
INFRAAD owns the two biggest figures in the race and it is not close: a 170 two starts back and a 181 last time, in a field where nothing else has passed 166. William Haggas drops him five points on our class ladder, the average grade of his last three starts sitting above today’s contest, Tom Marquand rides for a stable at 104 against a 97 baseline with 80% of runners hitting expectations, and he returns in nineteen days. The model holds him at 11 rather than 20 because his history is thin, four runs, and the two early figures in it were weak, so the trail reads as two spikes until he strings a third. That is the honest tension: on recent evidence he is the fastest horse in the race, and the shares are telling you the evidence is short.
TIERRA DEL TORO is the proven-level counterweight. He is the classiest on official figures at 97, the engine’s best established ability in the race, and Ralph Beckett drops him seven points in grade, comfortably the biggest class drop here. But his five figures sit in a 108 to 136 band without a spark among them, his form reading is flat, and he has been off 41 days. James Doyle from stall one, just off what should be an honest pace, is exactly the ride to pick up pieces if the forward types overdo it. BALTIC FLEET brings a 139 last time and a William Buick booking, but the Ian Williams stable reads 48% to expectations, the reliability warning we lean on most, and 61 days off compounds it. CANNES runs for the hot Joseph O’Brien yard, fourteen above baseline, without a figure in his trail to match the principals.
Where the data lands: HATTEEN, five improvements from five runs and the best figure at the trip, to make it six, with INFRAAD, the biggest numbers in the race on his last two, the one to be with if the evidence is real. Tierra Del Toro is the class-drop widen for cautious lines into leg one.
The full field
Alice Keppel Fillies’ Conditions Stakes
5F | GOOD TO FIRM | 9 RUNNERS | CONDITIONS (TWO-YEAR-OLD FILLIES)
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
A five-furlong dash for two-year-old fillies, and the tactical problem from day one’s Vintage returns: four of the nine are confirmed front-runners, so somebody’s plan does not survive the first furlong. The shares make FAST TRACK a strong top at 29, a twelve-point gap back to WILD BLOSSOM and ZIGAZIG AH at 17, with ENVISION at 10 and CALL NICKI at 7. Twelve-point gaps in juvenile races have been among the most reliable signals we publish, and this one comes with course evidence attached.
FAST TRACK has something rare in a juvenile sprint: a Goodwood track figure. Her 127 here two starts back means the ridge, the camber and the five furlongs of this course are already banked, and she backed it up with a 138 last time, the second-biggest recent figure in the race. The engine has her producing the top level in the field today, off a form reading of plus seven, and she is the third leg of an Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy morning that started with our first-race pick. Drawn one on the rail, back in fifteen days, by Blue Point out of a sprinting family: the profile is complete. The catch is the obvious one: she is one of the four who want the lead, and the rail draw means she must break well or surrender it.
ZIGAZIG AH is the momentum case. Her three figures read 102, 123 and 121, a tight band rather than spikes, and our form reading has her the steepest improver in the race at plus eleven, the kind of number two-year-old fillies post just before they win something. Richard Spencer, whose sprinters anchored our day-one shortlist, brings her back after just eleven days, which from that yard reads as intent, and Saffie Osborne keeps the ride. She is by Rajasinghe, the same sprinting blood as Run Boy Run from yesterday’s card. The tension is the same as the top pick’s: she wants the front too, and only one of the four can have it.
WILD BLOSSOM is the reputation in the race: officially rated 98, twelve pounds clear of anything else here, from the Karl Burke yard running level with a high baseline at 85% reliability, with James Doyle up. The number the engine cannot verify is the point: it has seen her exactly twice, which is why she carries our Unproven badge, and her recorded figures, a 58 on debut and a 105 last time, are the weakest of the principals. When a reputation and a clock disagree this widely, we side with the clock and respect the reputation. CALL NICKI posted the biggest last-time figure in the race, a 166, races prominently rather than in the front war, and is the value thread at a 7 share, though the Easterby stable reads 47% to expectations. PRINCESSE DORANGE, joint-highest established ability here with a 174 in her trail and Ryan Moore booked, reads cold on current form for a yard at 32% reliability, the biggest warning light on the card.
Where the data lands: FAST TRACK, the only filly with the course already banked and the top level today, to convert the twelve-point gap, with ZIGAZIG AH, the steepest improver with the tightest trail, the pressing danger. Call Nicki is the widen for bigger lines into leg two.
The full field
Rolls-Royce Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3)
7F | GOOD TO FIRM | 14 RUNNERS | GROUP 3 (FILLIES AND MARES)
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The first Group race of the day brings fourteen fillies and mares over seven furlongs, and the model has a clear favourite among them. The shares read FLORA OF BERMUDA 21, SAYIDAH DARIYAN 13, RADIANT BEAUTY 11, ZANTHOS 10, with ORIONS BELT and PLANET SEEKER at 9. Only two of the fourteen want to make the running, and one of those reads cold, so this should be a fair, honestly-run seven furlongs, the kind that lets the best filly win.
FLORA OF BERMUDA leads this field on almost every measure we publish: the classiest official rating (111), the engine’s highest established ability and top operating level, the best going figure among the principals (154), and a trail that runs 204, 116, 146 and 159 around one unrecorded run. Seventeen career starts mean every one of those numbers is trustworthy rather than provisional. She completes a remarkable treble for Andrew Balding across our first three primaries, with James Doyle riding a yard six above its baseline, and she sits mid-division, exactly where a moderately-run race sets up. Nineteen days since her last start, no excuses in the profile.
SAYIDAH DARIYAN is the proven alternative, and her case is class in transition: the biggest drop in company in the race, her last three starts averaging 127 on our ladder against today’s 122, second-best operating level in the field, Ryan Moore booked, and a stable at 83% reliability. The honest reading of her trail, 169 five starts back drifting to 124 last time, is a filly whose level is easing rather than building, which is why she is our second pick and not our first: the class says yes, the direction says gently no.
RADIANT BEAUTY is the firecracker: the biggest last-time figure in the race by thirty-nine points, a 198, with the steepest form reading in the field, for a James Owen yard running eighteen above its twelve-month level. She is officially fourteen pounds inferior to the top pick, and twenty career runs say her level is her level, so the question her price will pose is simple: was that run the day of her life, or the announcement of a new one? ZANTHOS gets Oisin Murphy but reads properly cold, operating four below his established level, and ORIONS BELT returns from 305 days away; a Group 3 first time back off ten months asks a lot of any filly. PLANET SEEKER, warming at plus four-and-a-half for Ralph Beckett, is the four-run improver for wider lines, and DASH OF AZURE, the only true hold-up runner, owns a 186 two starts back if the race turns messy.
Where the data lands: FLORA OF BERMUDA, the best filly in the race on class, engine and conditions with the run of the race assured, from SAYIDAH DARIYAN, the class-dropper with Moore aboard. Radiant Beauty is the widen for leg three, and the one place-market players should not dismiss at the price.
The full field
Veuve Clicquot Molecomb Stakes (Group 3)
5F | GOOD TO FIRM | 11 RUNNERS | GROUP 3 (TWO-YEAR-OLDS)
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The Molecomb is eleven two-year-olds over five furlongs, and the pace map is the story of the race: seven of the eleven are confirmed front-runners, the most crowded early-speed picture of the entire week. When that many want the same piece of ground, the figures still matter, but so does surviving the first ninety seconds. The shares read SALE SHARK 19, EL FLORIDITA 16, PERSHAADA 15, then ADONIUS, RULERS PRIDE, UNDERCOVER AFFAIR and CROWNBREAKER all together at 10, the flattest Group-race spread of the week, which is the model saying this is genuinely open.
SALE SHARK heads the shares on the quality the war rewards: consistency. His three figures read 153, 125 and 148, no craters, a 153 already banked at today’s trip, and the engine has him producing at 95 off a form reading of plus four-and-a-half. Hugo Palmer’s colt is back in just twelve days, drawn on the rail, which for a front-runner is the shortest way home, and Oisin Murphy riding makes it a possible hat-trick across our first four primaries. In a seven-way speed fight, the horse who brings his number every time is the rational anchor.
ADONIUS is the figures case, and on the clock he is the most persuasive juvenile in the race: 143, 166 and 170 in sequence, three runs, three improvements, the biggest last-time figure in the field, the highest established ability and the joint-top operating level. The going figure of 170 says fast summer ground is exactly right. Now the honest half: he has been off 84 days, and the Rebecca Menzies stable’s reliability figure reads 33%, the combination that has been our most dependable warning light all season. We are siding with the figures anyway, with eyes open: if the freshness holds and the yard has him ready, the clock says he is the one they all have to beat, and his price will carry the doubt for us.
PERSHAADA has evidence nobody else in the race owns: a 173 recorded at this course, on this going, so both her track and going figures lead the field outright, and her form reading of plus eight is the steepest here. Forty-two days off and another forward-goer, but in a field of juveniles meeting Goodwood’s ridge for the first time, the one who has already passed the exam demands respect. EL FLORIDITA is the classiest on official figures with the biggest single figure in the race, a 179 two starts back, but that number sits between a 107 and a 109, the exact spike shape we flagged on day one, and the small Tinkler yard reads 55%. RULERS PRIDE, for all the Burke and Doyle connections, reads cold after two runs, and UNDERCOVER AFFAIR, one of only two who will sit off the war, is the pace-collapse insurance despite inferior figures: nine runs of honesty and a 16-day turnaround.
Where the data lands: SALE SHARK, the level in the race full of spikes, with the draw and the turnaround in his favour, and ADONIUS, the best clock in the field if 84 days and a quiet yard have not dulled it. Pershaada, the course-and-going proof, is the widen leg four demands.
The full field
Visit Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1)
1M | GOOD TO FIRM | 12 RUNNERS | GROUP 1
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The Sussex Stakes, and a rivalry with a scoreline. Twice this season our model has sided with Gstaad against Bow Echo, in the 2000 Guineas and the St James’s Palace, and twice Bow Echo has beaten him: by two and three-quarter lengths at Newmarket, then by a short head at Ascot. Bow Echo is five from five in his life, unbeaten, officially the highest-rated horse in this field, and we are opposing him a third time. That deserves an explanation rather than an apology, so here it is, in the numbers. The shares read GSTAAD 20, OPERA BALLO 17, LAKE FOREST 16, BOW ECHO 13, with nothing else in double figures.
GSTAAD is the engine’s strongest single conviction of the week. His established ability of 120 is at least eight points clear of every rival, his operating level of 121 tops the field, his going figure of 171 is the best in the race, and the average class of his last three starts, 130 on our ladder, is the deepest company anyone here has kept. His trail reads 159, 168, 165, 196 and 148: a five-race level in the mid-160s with a 196 peak, the shape we trust most. And the scoreline that reads against him carries its own trend: two and three-quarter lengths became a short head in six weeks. The gap between these two colts has been closing every time they meet, Ballydoyle is six above its baseline, Ryan Moore is aboard from stall one, and the weight-for-age allowance still applies against the older milers. If the crossing point exists, the data says it is here.
OPERA BALLO is the tactical danger and the official-figures counter, rated 125 with peaks of 179 and 176 in his trail and a 166 last time. The pace map is his weapon: only two confirmed front-runners in twelve, and he is comfortably the classier of them, so William Buick may be allowed to dictate a moderately-run mile from the front, the oldest winning trick at this track. The engine is cooler on him than the handicapper is, and quietly believes his mark flatters him, but front-runners who get their own way have made fools of better readings than ours.
BOW ECHO. Five runs, five wins, the highest official rating in the race at 126, and a trail of 149, 178, 155 and 171 that has never once needed to be at its best to win. Our respect for him is total; our shares simply say that a 13 share is what his record earns once the engine weighs the company he has beaten against what Gstaad has been running to. If he beats us a third time, he will have earned every word written about him. Behind the big three, LAKE FOREST holds this entry alongside his win in Tuesday’s Lennox, and his participation resolves itself on the day; the engine rates him second-best here on ability if he takes his chance. DOCKLANDS reads properly cold at minus four, TEN BOB TONY posted the biggest last-time figure in the race, a 170, but gives lengths away on class, and SEAGULLS ELEVEN owns a 189 track figure at this course, the quiet one for place players at a 5 share.
Where the data lands: GSTAAD, the best horse in the race on every engine measure, to finally reverse a rivalry that has been narrowing all season, with OPERA BALLO, the lone speed with the classiest solo lead, the shape danger. Bow Echo, unbeaten and respected, is the reason this is the race of the week, and leg five of the Placepot wants at least two of the three.
The full field
Coral Charlton Handicap Stakes
6F | GOOD TO FIRM | 28 RUNNERS | HANDICAP
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Twenty-eight sprinters, six furlongs, and the final Placepot leg: this is day two’s banker-killer, and the numbers say so before a stall opens. The top share in the race is just 12, six of the field want the lead outright and another twelve want to press it, so the early fractions will be brutal and the patiently ridden get the race run for them. Day one’s lesson in leg five applies in full here: play this wide, not brave. The shares read SUPREME KING 12, then MYTHICAL COMPOSER and FRENCH AFFAIR at 7, CALLING A STAR at 6, and a carpet of 5s.
SUPREME KING is as aligned a profile as a race like this ever offers. His 182 last time is the biggest figure in the entire field, recent or otherwise, he has a Goodwood track figure of 130 banked, he drops seven points in grade on our class ladder, and after fifty-six career runs every number on his page is bankable. Just as important is where he will be: mid-division, watching eighteen rivals fight for the same early ground. The David Evans yard is seventeen above its twelve-month baseline at 83% reliability, the same stable whose jockey bookings we flagged as a tell on day one, and Oisin Murphy, on his fourth ride of our slate, takes over. In a cavalry charge, the horse with the biggest number and no interest in the war is the anchor.
MYTHICAL COMPOSER brings the best established ability among the principal group, a level of 90 the engine trusts across sixteen runs, and a trail that reads 112, 132, 116, 121, 124: no fireworks, no craters, a sprinter who runs his race every time. The honest catch is stark: he has been off 175 days. Clive Cox sprinters have a long record of running well fresh, Hector Crouch takes the ride, and the yard sits just above its baseline, but half a year away is half a year away, and his price should carry that doubt for us rather than against us.
The wideners matter more here than anywhere on the card. VELVET RHYTHM found sixty points of improvement three starts back, 140 and 155 against an early trail in the 50s and 60s, returns in eleven days, and only the Johnston stable’s 46% reliability keeps her out of bold type. FRENCH AFFAIR at a 7 share brings Billy Loughnane and the best going figure among the leading group, though her yard reads 38% to expectations. Deeper still, one for the honesty ledger: Arduis Invicta, buried in the pack on shares, actually posts the top operating level in the whole field, the sort of quiet flag that pays in place markets. The one to resist is SILVER WRAITH: a 182 five starts back, surrounded by a 99, a 39 and an 8, the purest spike profile on the card, back after just six days with a cold form reading. SIR GARFIELD owns a 173 ceiling but wants the front in the war, from a yard at 37%.
Where the data lands: SUPREME KING, the biggest figure in the race and the temperament to watch the speed war from behind, with MYTHICAL COMPOSER, the most trustworthy level in the field if 175 days have not dulled it. But hold this race lightly, and build leg six wider than any other on the card.
The full field
HKJC World Pool Handicap Stakes
7F | GOOD TO FIRM | 20 RUNNERS | WORLD POOL HANDICAP
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
The World Pool closer falls outside the Placepot’s six legs, so these are thoughts for the win and place pools, and it is a curious race: twenty runners over seven furlongs and not one confirmed front-runner among them. Ten want to race prominently, which usually means a muddling gallop, traffic for the hold-up runners, and a premium on tactical speed near the front. The shares read CRIMSON SPIRIT 12, PELLITORY and RHOSCOLYN at 10, then a wall of 6s containing, among others, BOBBY BENNU.
CRIMSON SPIRIT tops the market of signals rather than any single number. The Kubler stable is running fourteen above its twelve-month baseline, and Ryan Moore takes the ride for that small yard, the same booking-tell that flagged winners for us on day one: riders of that rank do not appear on 91-rated handicappers by accident. He owns a Goodwood track figure of 125, races prominently in the race with no leader, and returns in eighteen days. The honest notes: he steps up seven points on our class ladder, and his 92 last time sits below the 126 to 136 band of his previous form, so the model is trusting the established level and the situation, not the latest figure.
BOBBY BENNU is our value case from the wall of 6s, and he is Wednesday’s live demonstration of the strongest single number we publish. His operating level of 101 is the top figure in the entire field, built on the race’s highest recent evidence: a 183 last time out, the biggest figure here, with his form reading warming and Roger Varian’s stable at 71% reliability. He drops in class off a light season, and the only reason his share sits at 6 is a volatile trail, an 86 and a 121 live alongside the peaks, so the model prices the inconsistency in. When the top operating figure in a race is available at a share like this, our backtests say that is exactly where the value hides.
The wall of 6s hides two more worth naming, and one warning worth repeating. SUPERPOSITION brings a 154 and a 148 in his last four, William Buick, and an Ed Dunlop stable at 80% reliability, the most solid unbolded profile in the race. RAJEKO owns the highest established ability in the field, a 170 two starts back, and a class drop, the deep-value thread if the pace turns messy. The warning is the O’Meara pair: PELLITORY and RHOSCOLYN sit second and third on the shares with genuine course records, Rhoscolyn a Goodwood regular with sixty-nine runs of honesty, but their stable’s reliability figure reads 32%, the lowest number we will publish all day, and it applies to both. DEFENCE MINISTER, second-best on raw ability, reads the coldest in the field at minus five on our form reading.
Where the data lands: CRIMSON SPIRIT, the booking, the yard and the race shape all pointing one way, with BOBBY BENNU, the top operating figure and the biggest last-time number in the race, the value that closes our day. Superposition and Rajeko make the place-market shortlist, and with that, day two of our free Goodwood week is in the book: the Sussex verdict will keep us honest either way.
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