A final warm welcome to you all on what is the final day of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival!
Reflecting on Day 3 and the week so far:
Honestly, like a lot of punters at Cheltenham today, it was a bad day 3 for the data. We’ve had an outstanding Festival so far this week and that did come crashing to a halt on a day where we just couldn’t get going. The handicaps were as competitive as expected and popped in a few surprises on the day, and you can’t fail to be impressed by what Fact To File did in Ryanair. He was relentless in his jumping and for me was the most impressive of the week so far.
Frustrating but we still head into the fourth and final day well ahead for blog selections and there’s another 7 races to dive deep into, including the Cheltenham Gold Cup!
Race 1: JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
We get underway on Gold Cup day with the Triumph Hurdle, a 2m hurdle contest for juveniles that I look forward to each year. Ran at a frenetic pace, this is set to be another burn up and several of these look potentially smart.
Race Analysis:
The market for some time has flip-flopped between two potentially very smart horses in LULAMBA & EAST INDIA DOCK, the latter being the one the data believes they all have to beat. But starting with LULAMBA, he was a very well-fancied winner on his UK debut at Ascot, putting away a good field in fine style. That day he earned an opening rating of 117 and that’s a solid enough level, without being a standout. The issue I have is that this horse may have all the potential in the world, but others have achieved far more and none more so than EAST INDIA DOCK.
This horse began his hurdling career in October at Huntingdon and whilst not setting the world alight, was impressive nonetheless. He earned a very good rating that day of 132, which he went on to better with back-to-back victories at Cheltenham. Figures of 137 and 146 are clearly a standout in this field, and the manner of those victories suggest this horse could be very smart. That does make sense given he reached a mark of 90 on the flat, showing his best form on decent ground. That will play to his strengths on Friday and I fully expect this horse to take another big step forward and will take some stopping.
Race 2: William Hill County Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
Race 2 sees a maximum field cavalry charge over hurdles in what is always one of the most competitive races of the Festival, the County Hurdle.
Race Analysis:
The County is always a real conundrum and honestly this year’s renewal is no different. The market can often provide the best clues but I fear at this stage the bookies have made several of these just far too short. Paul Townend’s ride is always a good guide, and KARGESE has every chance of giving the team another winner on the week. This mare has produced progressive ratings on her last three appearances and it would be no surprise to see her continue to improve. The fact is though, she will need to. A mark of 141 demands plenty more from her and I just find her figures a little questionable when compared to others.
Both ABSURDE & LARK IN THE MORNIN both look set for big performances, with the former being last year’s winner and the latter being the “talking horse” of various channels on social media. Again the thing with these two horses is that their market price and ratings are telling me two different stories.
Instead I want to take a chance on two lively outsiders from Ireland, the first is NDAAWI for the Gordon Elliott team, and the second is PINOT GRIS for Gavin Cromwell. The former has a fascinating profile given the last time this horse was seen was at Newmarket on the flat in October. Admittedly the horse was well beaten, but has formerly operated at a mark of 96 on the flat and that should always be respected. He has been highly tried in competitive handicaps but last time at Galway recorded a very good rating of 148 and that certainly needs a second look. Looking to be off a sensible handicap mark, this horse can put a long absence behind him for a team that is slowly finding its form. PINOT GRIS represents a team that needs no introduction this week, and ratings of 166 and 155 on their last two racecourse appearances are obviously very impressive. This race will require further improvement but these ratings suggest we may just see that on Friday.
Race 3: Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase (Registered As The Liberthine Mares Chase) (Grade 2) (GBB Race)
The Mares Chase is up next and you’d be forgiven for thinking this was a re-run of 12 months ago given the horses going to post, but will it be the same result?!
Race Analysis:
On all form we have and the data available, the answer is no. Last year’s winner LIMERICK LACE has of course been highly tried since, but her ratings this campaign don’t set the world alight. ALLEGORIE DE VASSY always has promised so much without delivering in this race and I just feel a combination of the track, trip and these conditions just do not see her to best effect. And therefore that leaves the market leader DINO BLUE who despite needing to turn the tables on LIMERICK LACE this time, has some really impressive ratings this year. She is on a steep upward curve in her recent form and should be landing another winner for owner JP McManus.
Race 4: Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices Hurdle) (GBB Race)
The Albert Bartlett is up next and this race can only be described as a real slog. A novice hurdle over the 3m trip always demands so much from these young horses and given that, I strongly believe it requires a certain type of horse to win it.
Race Analysis:
The reason I say this is because year after year this race ends up being a real test of guts and stamina, and often the supposed “classy animal” isn’t the one that ends up winning. Last year is a clear example of that and I think we may well end up seeing a similar outcome here on Friday. It’s perhaps a blog for another day, but the way that horse the Bloodstock industry has changed over the last 10yrs, and now places far much more emphasis on speed, has left a clear shortage of real stayers. Therefore point to point form can be a key indicator for this race.
Those that head the market partially tick the box of having the stamina reserves for this race, with THE BIG WESTERNER & WENDIGO impressive enough in their most recent runs. Their ratings, in particular for the latter horse, are solid but there are others lurking here that looked to have achieved more and interest me.
The two I want to chance here that tick plenty of boxes for this race are YELLOW CAR & INTENSE APPROACH. Whilst not being found by the market, these horses look tailor made for a real test of stamina, and incidentally owner Harry Redknapp is seeking redemption for agonisingly being denied last year. He has recently purchased YELLOW CAR after the horse battled to victory at Doncaster last time. That day he showed real guts and determination to win, despite hanging badly left handed across the course. In the process he earned a standout rating of 174, and that in isolation is one of the best pieces of form on offer.
Talking of standout figures, you have to be impressed by the 206 recorded by INTENSE APPROACH. This horse represents connections that have performed well in this race in seasons gone by, and that standout rating was earned for winning a nice race at Musselburgh last month. It followed a 130 when winning over course and distance at the October meeting and horses with as much racecourse experience as this tend to outperformance, irrespective of the odds available.
Race 5: Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
The 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup, for many, and me included, this represents the true test of a thoroughbred racehorse, and we are truly very lucky to be living in the same generation as Galopin Des Champs.
Race Analysis:
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS sits atop of the predictive ratings and frankly it will be a huge shock to see this horse lose. There comes a point in this sport where you just need to sit back and enjoy watching the race.. and this feels exactly like that. The horse looks set to make it three Gold Cups in a row and he will receive the biggest reception of the week if he is able to do so.
From a ratings perspective however I can only report what is in front of me, and I personally find it fascinating that connections have pursued this route with BANBRIDGE. For me, he never looked likely to go down the staying chase route, as he looked so impressive over 2m and 2m 4f, providing he got his good ground. Therefore I was very impressed to see this horse land the King George on Boxing Day, showing real stamina to close down the front running Il Est Francais late on. Now of course that horse hasn’t franked the form, but the rating BANBRIDGE achieved of 186 is superb. They would not be running him here rather than the Ryanair for no reason, and there really is only one Gold Cup. GALOPIN may still prove a league above, but at the prices an each way bet seems the very best option.
Race 6: St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters Chase
In the aftermath of the Gold Cup, we of course have the formerly known Fox Hunters Chase. Over the same extended 3m 2f trip, this is always an eventful race and can often favour those at the head of the handicap.
Race Analysis:
The point I need to be very clear on here is that our current database does not extend to point to point races. This is very important to remember as when we look at each horse’s ratings, we need to make sure they were under rules, which include hunter chase races.
Many here will be looking for payback from last year’s race by following in ITS ON THE LINE. This Emmett Mullins trained 8yo looks to have a very good chance once again and you can be certain he will continue to stick on up the Cheltenham hill. On official ratings he is one of the top rated here in handicap terms, but his EquiAnalytix ratings have been moderate at best, and I do think he looks a little vulnerable yet again.
Given my focus on our figures and breedings data, I am keen to take him on once again, and the horses I think best placed to do that are – BARDENSTOWN LAD & MUSIC DRIVE. The former is the best selection on recent form given his last time out figure of 164 when winning at Fakenham, and the latter needs respecting given the EquiAnalytix Breeding data. By Muhtathir, this horse has the pedigree for fences and having won his last two PTP starts, he looks ready for this rise in class. Both of these horses are at large prices but this race can often throw a surprise so I will not be put off!
Race 7: Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
The 28th and final race of what has been a brilliant week is of course the Martin Pipe handicap hurdle, a 2m 4f contest for conditional jockeys… but can we end the Festival as we started it?!
Race Analysis:
Owner JP McManus has had a brilliant Festival, and really that has been the case all season long. He looks to hold plenty of the aces in this final competitive handicap hurdle, with current market leader KOPECK DE MEE open to any amount of improvement on his UK debut, NO ORDINARY JOE a horse who saves his best for here & PARK OF KINGS who has some really impressive form figures. KOPECK DE MEE needs commenting on here as really, we have no idea what to expect. His form in France has been well touted, and if you ask X, formerly Twitter, they’ve all decided this is an incredibly well-handicapped animal. I am not necessarily disagreeing, but he will have to be as a mark of 136 is no penalty kick. With no data to assess his French form and a pedigree that doesn’t jump off the page, I am quite happy taking him on. The latter two McManus horses have both recorded ratings of 194 and 177 respectively on their most recent runs, and normally that would see me very confident of one of them winning this sort of race. However.. I think there’s a fascinating horse lurking that’s performed even better.
NURSE SUSAN is a horse that has been on my radar all season. I am not one to participate in the Cheltenham antepost markets as the overrounds from the bookies just leave it ridiculous at times, and the chatter on social media channels just becomes relentless! However, this horse has been one I’ve tracked entries for from day 1, and I am delighted to see that she’s turning up here in a handicap rather than the mares hurdle. Off a mark of 133, NURSE SUSAN looks very well weighted to me for a big performance, and that’s because her last two ratings of 166 and 202 jump off the page. The latter was achieved all the way back in January 2024 at Lingfield. A mammoth task being off the track 418 days, but these connections know the key to winning these competitive Festival handicaps and with Langer Dan a late non-runner on Thursday, I think this mare can really make amends. She has been well backed in from fancy prices around 50/1, and she can end the 2025 Festival on a big high!
Final Thoughts
And with that we draw a close to the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, and with what we saw on Days 1 and 2, I am delighted to say it has been a very profitable one for the data.
I hope that these blogs and deep dives into each race has showed how my data can be used to analyse the big-race meetings. As ever if you have any questions I would be happy to answer, and going forwards watch this space for more premium blog content.
Don’t forget, you can access this data each day, for every horse all via our easy-to-use Dashboard!