Do market moves predict winners?

Not reliably on their own. Moves contain information and noise; use with objective performance metrics.

What is a meaningful move?

Context: field size, time-to-off, liquidity. Multi-firm sustained steam close to the off is more predictive than a brief twitch.

Markets

Treat the tape as a supplement—confirm or challenge what your model already says.

Time-to-off: late steam carries sharper info than early noise.
Market breadth: multi-firm shortening beats one-firm anomaly.
Liquidity context: moves in thin markets mean less than on World Pool cards.

Steam that aligns with your top Speed Ratings can validate a stronger position.

Shortening on a poor map/draw may be a lay or pass.

Drifts can offer better prices if your edge remains intact.

Not on their own. Use moves as a signal alongside Speed Ratings, pace, draw and bias.