Introduction
Royal Ascot’s final day sends the meeting out in style, with the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, a Group 1 sprint championship, as its centrepiece, the famous Wokingham cavalry charge among the handicaps and the marathon Queen Alexandra, the longest race of the British season, to close. Seven races, all on good to firm ground. This is our race-by-race read of the card, driven by the data rather than the noise. It is free and open for everyone this year, so before the racing, here is exactly what that data is and how we use it.
How we read a race
At the centre of everything is our TPR, the Total Performance Rating. It is a machine-learning model trained on more than twenty years of racing that turns everything we know about a runner into a single number: its calibrated chance of winning today’s race, shown as a percentage. The higher the figure, the stronger the model’s case. A percentage on its own does not tell you why, though, so underneath it we read a handful of supporting signals, and those are what the write-ups lean on.
What the numbers mean
- TPR (the win probability). Each horse’s calibrated chance of winning, as a percentage. In a wide-open race the leading few may be split by a point or two; in a strong one the best can stand clear.
- Speed figures. The standalone numbers you will see, such as a 173 or a 195. Each is a class and weight-adjusted rating of how fast a horse ran on the day, so figures from different tracks and grades compare directly. Higher is faster, and a horse running close to its best is the one to respect.
- Conditions form. How well a horse has performed on today’s going, over today’s trip and at this track. A high TPR backed by strong conditions form is a sturdier case than one without.
- Pace and run-style. Whether a horse leads, races handily or comes from behind, and how fast the race is likely to be run overall. A race full of front-runners often sets up for closers; a steadily-run one rewards those handy to the lead.
- Draw and course bias. What tens of thousands of past Ascot runs tell us about which stalls and which run-styles over- or under-perform on this ground. We quote these as real figures, for example a run-style that has historically won 28% less often than the market expected, rather than leaning on folklore.
Convergence Analysis
Where multiple independent data points, the TPR rating, recent speed ratings, trip and going profile, course form, trainer momentum, and historical pace-and-draw fit, all point to the same horse, we call that convergence. It is the foundation of everything we do. A horse can top the TPR rating, but if they have never been tested at today’s trip and the trainer’s strike rate has halved in the last month, the convergence is weak. When everything aligns, the signal is strong. We will show you exactly where that happens, race by race.
Let’s get into the card.
Norfolk Stakes (Group 2, two-year-olds)
5f · Good to Firm · 21 runners
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
Race Analysis
The Norfolk opens the final day, a Group 2 sprint for two-year-olds over the minimum five furlongs, with twenty-one going to post on good to firm. On Ascot’s straight five the draw and run-style carry real weight: leaders win more often than the market expects, a leader from a high or low stall more again, while the middle of the track and the hold-up types are marked down. This week the high, stands’-side numbers have tended to hold the edge, and the going-stick readings back it up today, the stands’ side reading 8.9 against 8.3 on the far side, so keep the draw in mind throughout. Our TPR, the machine-learning score behind everything we do, makes FLIGHT SIGNAL its top at 17.5%, from CARRY THE FLAG at 13.4%.
FLIGHT SIGNAL is the one the data keeps coming back to. Archie Watson’s colt won his only start with a class-adjusted speed figure of 173, our measure of how fast he ran adjusted for the class of race, and he sweeps our conditions models, topping the going, track and distance lists all at once, the only runner here to do so. He is a front-runner, the favoured sprint profile, and he is at his peak. The one reservation, and your eye should go straight to it, is the draw: he is in stall six, on the low-to-middle side rather than the favoured high numbers, so he gives a little ground away there. A front-runner of his quality can still secure a good early position, and the rest of his profile is strong enough to make him our pick even so, but it is the box to watch.
CARRY THE FLAG carries the highest recent figure in the field, a 177, with a 167 behind it, and is at his peak after three runs for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. He has more experience than most of these once-raced types, which counts for plenty in a big-field juvenile scramble. He shares Flight Signal’s one flaw, a middle draw in stall thirteen rather than the favoured high side, so he too has the draw to overcome, but the strongest body of form in the race and that booking make him the clear second on merit.
If the high side does dominate, the well-drawn ones to fear are obvious. FORCE NOIR is the pick of them: a front-runner drawn high in nineteen, the single strongest cell in our sprint data, with a 173 already to his name for the Amo team. SOCIAL SYMBOL is the breeding standout, holding the best sire-distance and dam-progeny ratings in the race, both 146, and is drawn high in eighteen for Crisford and William Buick, while SAVAGE MARINER ran a 166 on debut and is also up in the high numbers for Tom Marquand. The frustration is TRIBECA, who owns the single fastest figure of the lot, a 185, but is stuck low in stall five, on what looks the wrong side.
This is a tricky, draw-sensitive puzzle to open the day. Where the data lands: FLIGHT SIGNAL, the conditions-model-topping front-runner who is good enough to overcome a moderate draw, and CARRY THE FLAG, the most experienced of the field and the fastest of them recently. But with the stands’ side holding the edge, the high-drawn FORCE NOIR and SOCIAL SYMBOL are very much the dangers, so this is one to watch the draw on closely.
The full field
Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)
1m4f · Good to Firm · 12 runners
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
Race Analysis
The Hardwicke Stakes is a Group 2 over a mile and a half for older horses, twelve going to post on good to firm. It is a deep, classy race and a deceptively hard one, because several of the principals are high-class but arriving below their best, so current form and suitability to the fast ground matter as much as raw ability. Our TPR makes AMILOC its top at 22.2%, from JAN BRUEGHEL at 17.5% and KALPANA at 14.8%, but the model is leaning on past peaks in places, and once you weigh how they are running now the picture shifts.
JAN BRUEGHEL is the class act of the race. Aidan O’Brien’s horse owns a career-best class-adjusted speed figure of 221, our rating of how fast a horse ran with an adjustment for the class of race, comfortably the highest any of these has reached, and he tops both our track model and our distance model, our reads of how a profile fits Ascot and this trip. He also rates third on the going model, so the quick ground is no concern. The honest caveat is recency: his latest runs have been below that peak, so this is a bounce-back to his best rather than a horse in red-hot form. But with Ryan Moore booked and that much class in hand, he is the one they all have to beat if he turns up at the level he is capable of.
WEST WIND BLOWS is the data’s answer to the ground question that hangs over several here. He tops our going model outright, meaning our system rates him the best suited of all to today’s good to firm, and he is the opposite of the faded types: a 192 last time and right at his peak on our trend measure, for Crisford and William Buick. The model rates him only ninth, the editorial-value spot, but a horse in current form who handles the ground better than anything else is exactly the profile we want against a field of bounce-back hopes.
KALPANA is the obvious danger and owns the highest recent figure in the race, a 202, but here is the honest read: our going model rates her only fifth for ground this fast, and her best work has not come on a surface this quick, so there is a genuine question over the conditions even for a mare this good. AMILOC is the model’s top but is some way below the form that earned his big figures, and GOLIATH is a high-class type for Graffard who, like several, needs to bounce back. SONS AND LOVERS catches the eye lower down, a front-runner with figures of 198 and 191 and right at his peak for Joseph O’Brien, while the unexposed French raider BEST SECRET is also at his peak and open to more.
This is one of the hardest puzzles on the card, with class and current form pulling in different directions. Where the data lands: JAN BRUEGHEL, the clear class horse who handles the ground and only needs to find his best, with WEST WIND BLOWS, the in-form runner our going model rates the best suited to today’s quick surface. KALPANA is the talented danger, with the firm ground the one thing to hold against her.
The full field
Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)
6f · Good to Firm · 19 runners · the day’s feature
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
Race Analysis
The Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes is the feature of the final day and one of the great global sprints, a Group 1 over six furlongs with nineteen going to post from Britain, Ireland, France, Japan and Australia. A word of honesty first: our figures are built on British and Irish racing, so the overseas raiders, the Japanese-trained SATONO REVE and LUGAL, the Australians OVERPASS and JOLIESTAR and the French pair, are ones the model can only partly rate, and they deserve respect beyond what our numbers show. On the straight six the draw matters too, and the high, stands’-side numbers have held the edge this week. Our TPR makes POWERFUL GLORY its top at 14.8%, from FLORA OF BERMUDA and KIND OF BLUE.
POWERFUL GLORY is the one the data keeps coming back to, and he has the course form to match. Richard and Peter Fahey’s colt is a proven Group 1 winner right here, having sprung a major surprise on Champions Day at Ascot last autumn, and our track model rates him among the best suited of all to the course, with the distance model agreeing for the trip. The clock backs it up: figures of 180 and 177, our class-adjusted ratings of how fast a horse ran, and tellingly the 180 came when only seventh last time, so he ran a much bigger race than the bare result, and our trend measure has him near his peak. Jamie Spencer rides. The honest caveats are that he is a hold-up type and drawn mid, in stall ten rather than the favoured high numbers, so he gives a little away there, but a proven Ascot Group 1 winner running to these figures is the soundest anchor in a wide-open race.
COMANCHE BRAVE owns the biggest recent figure in the field, a 215, and is right at his peak on our trend measure, a prominent racer who will be handier than Powerful Glory for Donnacha O’Brien and Pierre-Charles Boudot. He too is drawn mid, in twelve, so he shares the draw question, but on raw speed he has run faster recently than anything else in the line-up, and an improving four-year-old at his peak in a Group 1 is a serious player.
The market, though, has settled on JOLIESTAR, and she demands real respect. Chris Waller’s Australian mare is unbeaten in her last three, all at Randwick, posting sharp local speed figures in the process, and she arrives with genuine Group 1 class. The honest problem for us is that her form is entirely Australian, so our British and Irish figures cannot rate her at all: the model leaves her near the foot of its list only because it has nothing to measure her on, not because she lacks ability. We will take her on at the head of the market, but with full respect for what she brings. The other danger is SATONO REVE, the high-class Japanese raider drawn perfectly in eighteen on the favoured side with Ryan Moore booked, the same caveat applying. Of the home team, LAKE FOREST holds strong sprint figures for the in-form William Haggas yard but is drawn low, and KIND OF BLUE tops our going model for the quick ground though he needs to bounce back to his best.
This is a deep, truly international Group 1, so a measure of caution is sensible. Where the data lands: POWERFUL GLORY, the proven Ascot Group 1 winner our track and distance models both favour and who ran a huge race in defeat last time, with COMANCHE BRAVE, the peaking colt who owns the fastest recent figure. The chief dangers are the well-drawn raider SATONO REVE and the in-form Haggas pair, so respect both the high numbers and the overseas form our data cannot fully see.
The full field
Jersey Stakes (Group 3, three-year-olds)
7f · Good to Firm · 17 runners
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
Race Analysis
The Jersey Stakes is a Group 3 for three-year-olds over seven furlongs, with seventeen going to post on good to firm. Run on the round course, the seven-furlong start means the draw is a far smaller factor than in the day’s straight-track sprints, so this comes down to class, the clock and run-style. Our TPR makes THE PRETTIEST STAR its top at 14.8%, from COLORI FOREVER at 11.3% and NEOLITHIC at 10.5%.
THE PRETTIEST STAR is the one the data keeps coming back to, and she sweeps the conditions models, topping both our going and distance lists, our reads of how well a profile fits today’s ground and trip. Ed Walker’s filly ran a 168 last time, our class-adjusted measure of how fast she ran, the best recent figure of the principals, and our trend measure has her right at her peak. She races up with the pace, James Doyle rides, and a filly taking on the colts with the best figure, the best conditions profile and clear improvement still to come is the soundest pick in the race.
THESECRETADVERSARY is the one our track model singles out, rating him the best suited of all to Ascot specifically, and he backs it with a 165 of his own and a peak-form profile for J A Stack and Seamie Heffernan. He eases a little in class on our measure today, and as a prominent racer he should secure a good position. The model has him only fifth, the editorial-value spot, but a colt who handles this track better than anything and runs to that figure is the strongest alternative to the favourite on the data.
COLORI FOREVER is the model’s second and holds a big back figure of 186 for Marco Botti, though he is a hold-up type with a bit to prove on recent runs. CATULLUS is interesting for the in-form Charlie Appleby and William Buick, a front-runner at his peak with a 161, and ANDAB carries a 165 for Joseph O’Brien. Of the others, SABER STRIKE is unbeaten in two and open to plenty more for the red-hot William Haggas yard.
Where the data lands: THE PRETTIEST STAR, the model’s top who sweeps our going and distance models and owns the best figure, with THESECRETADVERSARY, the one our track model rates the best suited to Ascot. Catullus and the unbeaten Saber Strike head the dangers in a competitive Group 3.
The full field
Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
6f · Good to Firm · 31 runners
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
Race Analysis
The Wokingham is the Royal meeting’s most famous cavalry charge, a thirty-one-runner sprint handicap down the straight six run at a ferocious gallop. The Ascot sprint bias is in full force, leaders and the high, stands’-side draws favoured, the middle and the hold-up types marked down, and the going-stick again reads fastest on the stands’ side, so the high numbers are the place to be. That reshapes the race, because the model’s top, REALIGN, is drawn mid in stall ten, on the wrong side, so we look to the well-drawn pair just below him.
SPY CHIEF ticks every box. John and Thady Gosden’s gelding is the model’s second on merit, he ran a 160 last time, our class-adjusted measure of how fast he ran, and our trend measure has him right at his peak. He drops five points in class on our measure, so the handicap looks within range, and crucially he is drawn high in stall thirty, on the favoured side, with William Buick booked. A peaking, well-handicapped sprinter from the right part of the track is the soundest anchor in a race this chaotic.
DUBAI BLING is the other side of the same coin: drawn high in twenty-three, also on the favoured rail, on a rising handicap mark and close to his peak with a big back figure of 170 for Hugo Palmer and Oisin Murphy. The model rates him third, so this is no wild stab, and a progressive sprinter drawn the right side is exactly the profile that lands these.
REALIGN is the model’s top and a genuinely talented sort for the in-form William Haggas, a 170 last time and at his peak, so if the draw bias fails to bite he is the obvious winner, but stall ten is the one thing against him. Among the other high numbers, GOLD STAR HERO is the eyecatcher at a big price, a front-runner drawn high in twenty-eight, the perfect bias profile, with big back figures for Michael Bell; EVENING SAIGON is drawn twenty-nine for the red-hot Hamad Al Jehani yard, and the Haggas-trained BINHAREER is up in twenty-two on a rising mark. FANDOM owns a monster 216, the fastest figure in the race, but is drawn one, on the wrong rail entirely.
As ever in the Wokingham the draw will tell much of the tale, and our steer is firmly to the high numbers. Where the data lands: SPY CHIEF, the peaking, well-handicapped Gosden sprinter drawn high on the favoured side, and DUBAI BLING, the progressive type alongside him. REALIGN is the model’s top but has the draw to overcome, with GOLD STAR HERO the big-priced, well-drawn one to fear.
The full field
Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap, three-year-olds)
1m2f · Good to Firm · 18 runners
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
Race Analysis
The Golden Gates Stakes is a competitive mile-and-a-quarter handicap for three-year-olds, eighteen going to post on good to firm. On the round course the draw is a minor factor, so this is about form and the figures, and the model spreads it: BAYAANN its narrow top at 11.3%, from AMADEUS MOZART and SPYCE at 10.3% and PRINCLING at 9.8%.
HARMONICS is the one our data most likes, even at a bigger price than the market leaders. John and Thady Gosden’s colt tops our going model for today’s good to firm, owns the best recent figure in the field, a 164, our class-adjusted measure of how fast he ran, and our trend measure has him right at his peak. Shane Foley rides. The model rates him mid-pack only because several rivals carry slightly higher overall marks, but a progressive colt who handles the ground best of all and is running to the best figure is precisely the overlooked profile our system is built to surface.
PRINCLING is the pick of the market principals on the data. William Haggas’s colt is at his peak on our trend measure, a front-runner who ran a 150 last time, and he represents a yard in tremendous form with Tom Marquand booked. He has a touch to prove on the bare figures against Harmonics, but a peaking, front-running type for that stable is a sound second.
BAYAANN is the model’s top for the in-form Haggas team, though he is a shade below his best on recent figures, and AMADEUS MOZART is the interesting class-dropper, easing a full ten points in class on our measure off a big back figure for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore, the obvious bounce-back. SPYCE also drops sharply in class for Alan King, SAHARA KING is close to his peak for Richard Hannon, and PERISHER holds a big 198 in behind for Joseph O’Brien.
Where the data lands: HARMONICS, the going-model-topping colt with the best figure at his peak, and PRINCLING, the in-form Haggas front-runner. The class-dropping AMADEUS MOZART and the model-top BAYAANN head the dangers in an open handicap.
The full field
Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions)
2m5½f · Good to Firm · 13 runners · outside the Placepot
Model probability % · TPR v2, the engine of the time
Race Analysis
The Queen Alexandra Stakes brings Royal Ascot to a close, and it is the longest race run under British Flat rules, a marathon of two miles and five and a half furlongs with thirteen going to post on good to firm. A trip this extreme turns the race into a pure test of stamina and class, with the draw no factor at all over this distance. It also stretches our data in a way worth being open about: a race this long pulls in dual-purpose stayers from the big jumps yards and raiders from abroad, the kind of profile our figures, built on British and Irish Flat form, can under-rate, so they deserve respect beyond what our numbers show. Our TPR makes FRENCH MASTER a clear top at 23.4%, with BERKSHIRE SUNDANCE and ILLINOIS next on 17.5% apiece.
FRENCH MASTER is the model’s top and the most straightforward stayer in the race. John and Thady Gosden’s gelding posted a class-adjusted speed figure of 146 last time, our measure of how fast a horse ran with an adjustment for the class of race so figures compare like for like, and our trend measure, which sets a horse’s current level against its career best, has him right at his peak. He eases seven points in class on our reading today, our way of saying he drops into easier company than he has been meeting, and he is already a course winner here at Ascot. The stamina is in the pedigree too: he is by Frankel out of a Sea The Stars mare, and his sire-distance rating of 119, our measure of how well a stallion’s stock tend to stay, is among the best in the field. James Doyle rides. A peaking, well-bred stayer dropping in class for a top yard is the soundest anchor in a race that can throw up surprises.
ILLINOIS is the class act of the race, and the one we are happy to take on trust. Aidan O’Brien’s horse is the highest-rated runner in the field on official ratings, he drops a full seventeen points in class on our measure, the biggest easement of any runner here, and he owns a back figure of 205, comfortably the biggest in the race. He also tops our going model for today’s good to firm, our read of how well a profile suits the ground, and he is a course winner into the bargain. Here we owe you the honest note: our figures hold no recent run for him, because his latest start, at Epsom, was a muddling, steadily-run race in which he was effectively pulled up and never got into it, so it registered nothing we can use. We forgive that readily. On his true level he is the best horse in this field, and with Ryan Moore booked, if he bounces back he has the class to win this comfortably.
There is depth behind the pair. BERKSHIRE SUNDANCE shares second on the model and arrives in the best recent heart of the principals, a figure of 150 last time and a front-running style for Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy. A PIECE OF HEAVEN ran to a 164 last time, the best recent figure in the entire race, and sits second on our going model for Joseph O’Brien, so he too has live claims. Then come the raiders our data sees least of: W P Mullins saddles three in COLUMBUS, LE DESTRIER and MR HOLLYWOOD, proven stayers from the champion jumps yard of exactly the type a Flat-form model can under-rate, and Columbus is in fact second-highest of the whole field on official ratings despite his largely French and German form barely registering in our numbers. Treat that trio with respect. Of the others, CARLTON is consistent but steps up in class for James Owen, DALLAS STAR is the one runner with a figure logged at this extreme trip and will bowl along in front, and MAXI KING is at his peak on a useful 152 for Kevin Philippart De Foy.
This is a fitting, unpredictable finale, a marathon where stamina and class matter more than any single figure. Where the data lands: FRENCH MASTER, the peaking, well-bred model-top dropping in class for the Gosden yard, with ILLINOIS, the highest-rated horse in the race on a thoroughly forgivable last run, the one with the class to win going away if he bounces back. The three Mullins-trained stayers are the live dangers our Flat data is least able to measure.
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