Fillies' Mile day at Newmarket opens the Future Champions Festival, and the Rowley Mile stages eight races on Good ground: the Fillies' Mile itself for the best two-year-old fillies, the Challenge Stakes, three Group 3s including the Cornwallis and the Oh So Sharp, the Old Rowley Cup and, to close, the HKJC World Pool handicap, where the Tote's pools are co-mingled with Hong Kong's. The card is threaded with form lines our database has already measured: the May Hill at Doncaster links two of the Fillies' Mile principals, the Flying Childers links the model's top two in the Cornwallis, and the Sceptre at Doncaster sends runners into three different races here. Where the horses have met, we show the figures they ran against each other; where they have not, we show the numbers that say who should.
This guide reads all eight races through our model, and it works the way our coverage always works: the framing of every race is open to everyone, a free account unlocks the complete analysis, and members get the live data tables underneath, the same percentages, ratings and pace maps the dashboard runs, updating through the day. Along the way we explain the figures as we use them, because the point of these guides has never been a list of horses to follow. It is showing how data narrows big fields to the two or three worth your attention, and letting you take the method anywhere.
How we read a race
Every horse in a race holds a TPR percentage and every field sums to 100, so the numbers read like the model’s own market. The engine chips show ability, current form and operating level; the sparkline is the last five race figures. Ten quick answers sit in the primer below, and the full walkthrough of every metric is in the complete data guide.
Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3)
5f | Group 3, two-year-olds | 13 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Thirteen two-year-olds over the Rowley Mile's five furlongs on Good, and the Future Champions Festival opens with a Group 3 that our model reads as wide open. Every horse in the race carries a share of the model's confidence, and the shares in a race always add up to 100, so the spread here says a lot: FAST TRACK leads on 17, FLANN SUNNA 15, PERFECT STRIKE 13, then ARMOR SUPREME on 10 and MARCO POLO on 9. Nobody is given even one chance in five. Underneath the shares sit the numbers we build them from. Every run earns a performance figure, built from the clock and adjusted for the class of the race, so a 150 in a nursery and a 150 in a Group race mean the same thing. Our engine keeps a running estimate of each horse's true ability from every run and every beaten length, and separately tracks its operating level, that ability plus or minus current form. How a race is run matters as much as who is in it, so we also score every horse's running style from its recent races. Eight of these thirteen like to race on or near the pace, and our study of every Rowley Mile race up to seven furlongs says that is the place to be: horses that lead have won 1.67 times as often as the market expected across 1,222 runs, while those held up have won at 0.69. The draw makes far less difference: low stalls run at 1.05, high at 0.95.
The best piece of form in the race belongs to FLANN SUNNA, and it came against the model's leader. Simon and Ed Crisford's colt, ridden by William Buick from stall 5, was third in the Flying Childers at Doncaster over this five furlongs on Good last month with a figure of 142, "progress made two out, pushed along and closed in a furlong out, hit the front late on, pipped in the final strides for third", finishing ahead of FAST TRACK in fourth. His biggest number is bigger still: a 168 when winning a conditions race at Ascot over six furlongs on Good To Firm in July, the highest figure any horse in this field has recorded. His distance figure, the average of his runs at five furlongs, is 142, second only to one rival, and the Crisford yard is in strong form, its one-month figure of 103 well above its twelve-month baseline of 92. The caveat is consistency. We measure it as the spread of a horse's last three figures, where lower is steadier, and his reads 27, because in between he was fifth in the Richmond at Goodwood, "one paced and gave way inside the final furlong". He also settles in the pack, the running style the course study likes least, so he needs the leaders to come back to him.
THIS MOMENT is the horse in the race with the rapidly rising numbers. George Boughey's gelding has won three nurseries in a row, all at five furlongs and all from on or near the pace, and each figure came off a higher mark: a 163 at Newcastle on the all-weather in August off 79, a 144 at Thirsk on Good To Soft off 83, then a 190 at Chester on Soft last month off 89, "set the pace from the off, travelling strongest with 2f left, edged away inside final furlong, scored comfortably". That 190 is the biggest last-time figure in the race, and his five-furlong figure of 166 is the best in the field. The handicapper has followed him from 79 to 98, and his stable is the hottest here, running at 111 against a 94 baseline. He is also one of three genuine front-runners, exactly the profile the course study favours. The step up is real: this is his first try in Group company, his best figures have come with some give underfoot (his only run on Good To Firm produced a 104), and the model gives him a share of just 7. But in an open Group 3, numbers like these are worth taking seriously.
FAST TRACK leads the model on 17 and is the one to beat on reliability. Andrew Balding's filly has the steadiest profile in the field, a consistency reading of 11, the engine's highest operating level at 98, a yard running at 104 against 95, and a front-running style from stall 4; her fourth in the Flying Childers, "went straight to front, pressed inside the final furlong and edged out close home", came just behind Flann Sunna. PERFECT STRIKE won a Sandown novice on Soft with a 139, "pushed along inside final furlong and pulled well away", but is drawn 13 and has yet to show that on fast ground. MARCO POLO is the only runner with Newmarket form, sixth in the Middle Park here last month, and MUSSAB arrives off a Listed win at Ayr.
FLANN SUNNA has the best form in the race, including the head-to-head with the model's leader, and the biggest figure anyone here has run; THIS MOMENT has the rising numbers, the top five-furlong figure and the running style the course rewards. FAST TRACK is the danger on consistency and the model's share.
The full field
Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3)
7f | Group 3, two-year-old fillies | 14 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Fourteen two-year-old fillies go to post over seven furlongs after two morning withdrawals, NUIT D'ECLAIR and GREEK SYMPHONY, and the model spreads this second Group 3 almost evenly: SWELTERING 14, GOLDEN RING 13, SEA VENTURE 11, MISS KODI and NUIT D'ECLAIR on 10, MINKAAS 7. When the shares are this flat, the race turns on its shape and on the pedigrees behind thin form, and the shape here is unusual: not one of the sixteen is a recognised front-runner. Only two of those left, SWELTERING and CHASING DAYLIGHT, usually race prominently, so the early gallop could be steady, and the Rowley Mile study is clear about what that means: over these shorter trips prominent runners win at 1.06 times market expectation and held-up horses at 0.69. With juveniles who have run three or four times, breeding is the other signal that matters. Every sire and dam in our database carries a progeny average, the mean performance figure of all its offspring, and we split the sire's further: how his two-year-olds run, how his stock handle fast ground and how they handle today's trip.
The most proven Group form in the race belongs to NUIT D'ECLAIR. Kevin Philippart de Foy's filly, ridden by David Egan from stall 3, won a Newbury novice in July with a 147, then went straight into Group 3 company and has been placed in two of three tries: second in the Sweet Solera on Newmarket's July Course over this seven furlongs on Good To Firm, "crept through the field with ease approaching 2f out, pushed to the front inside the final furlong, caught close home to finish second", and third in the Dick Poole at Salisbury on Good To Soft last month with a 141, "boxed in briefly with a furlong left, closed strongly to finish third". Her consistency reading of 9 is the steadiest in the field, the engine rates her operating level at 97, the highest here, and her figure on fast ground, 130, is the second best. The breeding agrees: Night Of Thunder's progeny run to a 95 on fast ground, joint-best in the race, and average 90 at seven furlongs, the second-best sire reading at the trip. Two things count against her. She is held up, the style both the pace setup and the course study work against, and her dam's offspring average 77, the lowest dam figure in the field.
MINKAAS has the biggest single number in the race and the best fast-ground record. Trained by T. J. Kent and ridden by James Doyle, she ran a 178 when third in a Yarmouth maiden over six furlongs on Good To Firm in August, "pushed into second with a furlong left and challenged the leader inside the final 110yds", then won a novice on the July Course here on Good To Firm, "made ground approaching the final furlong, hit the front and stayed on to assert". Her figure on good to firm, 140, is the best in the field. Stepped up to seven furlongs in Listed company at Doncaster last month, she finished fourth in the Flying Scotsman with a 125 despite a "sluggish start", "closing best at the line". The sire backs the profile: Minzaal's two-year-olds average 85 and his stock run to a 95 on fast ground, both among the best readings here. Like Nuit d'Eclair she comes from the back, and her figures swing (a consistency reading of 30), so she needs the race to open up.
SWELTERING tops the model on 14 and is the one most likely to dictate, drawn 1 for Andrew Balding after winning a Leicester novice when she "hit front with authority two out", but it is thin evidence: two runs, a best figure of 123, and a sire whose two-year-olds rank eleventh of sixteen. SEA VENTURE has course-and-distance Group form, sixth in the Rockfel here on Good thirteen days ago with a 139. DARK ISSUE was second in the Dick Poole, a place ahead of Nuit d'Eclair, and has the highest ability rating in the field at 95, while POLYXENA owns the best seven-furlong figure, 140, from a nursery second here last month. TOPAZ is by the best juvenile sire in the race, Persian Force.
NUIT D'ECLAIR, withdrawn this morning, had the Group 3 form, the steadiest numbers and the pedigree for fast ground at seven furlongs; MINKAAS has the best figure on good to firm, the biggest single figure and the breeding to match. SWELTERING is the danger if allowed an easy lead, SEA VENTURE on course form.
The full field
Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
7f | Group 2 | 6 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Six older horses over seven furlongs for a Group 2, and a small field the model still holds firm views on: TIME TO TURN 28, FLORA OF BERMUDA and PINA SONATA 23 each, HOLGUIN and NEVER SO BRAVE 10, WITNESS STAND 6. Small fields are often run tactically, and this one has no recognised front-runner; WITNESS STAND and PINA SONATA are the only two who usually race prominently, so expect WITNESS STAND to lead at a pace that suits anything able to sit close. There is also a direct line of form through the race: three of the six met in the Park Stakes at Doncaster last month, where FLORA OF BERMUDA was second, WITNESS STAND fifth and NEVER SO BRAVE sixth.
PINA SONATA comes here off the biggest last-time figure in the race. James Fanshawe's four-year-old filly won the Sceptre at Doncaster over this seven furlongs on Good last month with a 171, "moved through smoothly around 2f out to hit the front approaching the furlong marker, driven out and stayed on strongly to the line", and the engine now rates her operating level at 108, the highest of the six. Her seven-furlong figure of 136 is second only to Witness Stand's, she races prominently, which counts for plenty in a race with no natural pace, and the Fanshawe yard is running at 109 against a twelve-month baseline of 95. The questions are the step up from Group 3 to Group 2 and a poor run over a mile, fifth in the Valiant at Ascot on Good To Firm in July with a 94. Back at seven furlongs, her 171 is bettered this season only by TIME TO TURN's 172 over a mile.
TIME TO TURN leads the model on 28, on the class of his best form and the yard behind him. Charlie Appleby's three-year-old ran a 172 when second in the Heron Stakes at Sandown over a mile on Good in May, "headway from over 2f out, hung right over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, no match for winner", and as a juvenile won the Horris Hill at Newbury over this trip on Soft. The Appleby stable is the hottest on the card: its one-month figure of 122 sits well clear of a 108 baseline, with a 30 per cent strike rate over the year. Two things temper it. He has been off for 89 days since finishing sixth at Deauville in July, and his figure on fast ground, 85, is the weakest in the field, his best runs having come on Good, which is what the ground has eased to. He also comes from off the pace, so he needs a stronger gallop than this setup may give him.
FLORA OF BERMUDA is the most reliable Group performer in the race and has the best record at the course, a figure of 120 here, with wins in the Oak Tree at Goodwood and a Group 3 at York this summer and a second in the Park Stakes last time, "hit the front inside the last, caught close to the line to finish second". WITNESS STAND owns the best going and seven-furlong figures, 164 and 137, and was beaten a short head at Redcar six days ago after he "went to the front 2f out"; left alone in front he is the danger, although Flora Of Bermuda had him well behind at Doncaster. HOLGUIN ran a 170 when third in the City Plate at Chester in July, and NEVER SO BRAVE has the second-best going figure but comes from the back.
PINA SONATA has the biggest recent figure, the engine's highest operating level and a prominent style that suits a race short of pace; TIME TO TURN has the model's backing, the best yard on the card and a 172 at his best. FLORA OF BERMUDA is the danger on consistency and course form, WITNESS STAND if allowed to dictate.
The full field
Bet365 Fillies' Mile (Group 1)
1m | Group 1, two-year-old fillies | 8 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Eight two-year-old fillies over the Rowley Mile for the day's Group 1, and the clearest opinion the model holds on the whole card: MUSICAL TIMES 41, then HAVEN 14, LEX VICTORIA 12, FORBIDDEN FIRE 10, SCOMMESSA SICURA 8. A 41 in a field of eight is a strong statement, the kind of share the model gives only when one horse's numbers stand clear of the rest. The race should be run fairly: LEX VICTORIA is the only natural front-runner, but six of the eight like to race prominently, so nobody is likely to get an easy lead and nobody should be left with too much to do. Two lines of form run through it. SCOMMESSA SICURA was second to MUSICAL TIMES in the May Hill at Doncaster last month, and FORBIDDEN FIRE won the Flying Scotsman on the same card.
MUSICAL TIMES is unbeaten in three and arrives off the best performance any of these fillies has put up in Britain. Charlie Appleby's filly, ridden by William Buick from stall 8, won the May Hill at Doncaster over this mile on Good To Soft last month with a 196, "moving strongly 3f out, hit the front approaching the last furlong, soon opened daylight, stayed on strongly to the line, cruised home in style". Her two earlier wins, in novices on Newmarket's July Course and at Yarmouth over seven furlongs, came on Good and Good To Firm. Her form trend reads +31, the engine's operating level of 104 is the highest in the field, and the yard is the hottest on the card, running at 122 against its 108 baseline. Her dam's offspring average 113, among the best broodmare figures here. The one number that asks a question is her going figure, 106 on fast ground, though that comes from novice races run at a modest level, and the class of the May Hill run sits well above it.
ROGUE PASSION owns the biggest figure in the race, and it is the most intriguing number on the card. Edward Bethell's filly won at Longchamp over a mile on Good To Soft in September with a 220, after winning a Carlisle novice over seven furlongs in August, "close up with the pace, eased ahead by three furlongs out, opened up gap late and eased to the line". Her figures on good to firm (138) and at a mile (220) are both the best in the field, and her dam's offspring average 143, comfortably the best producer here. The model is far less convinced, with a share of just 4, and that gap is a caution as much as an opportunity: a single big figure earned in France carries more uncertainty than form earned on British tracks. But if the Longchamp run is close to what it says, she is the one filly in the field who can take on MUSICAL TIMES on the numbers.
SCOMMESSA SICURA is the most consistent filly in the race, a consistency reading of 9, with the best course figure and seconds in both the May Hill, "found extra pace a furlong out, stayed on to finish second", and the Stonehenge at Salisbury. HAVEN, the model's second on 14, won a Dundalk maiden last time and is by Wootton Bassett, whose two-year-olds average 88, the best juvenile sire figure in the field. FORBIDDEN FIRE won the Flying Scotsman, "hung on by a whisker", and DANCING DESTINY ran a 211 when second in the Silver Flash at Leopardstown before finishing third in the Moyglare, though her figures swing more than any other filly's here.
MUSICAL TIMES has the best British form, the highest operating level, the hottest yard and a 41 share; ROGUE PASSION has the biggest figure in the race and the pedigree, with a question mark over how that French run translates. SCOMMESSA SICURA is the danger on consistency and the May Hill line, HAVEN on breeding.
The full field
Bet365 Old Rowley Cup (Heritage Handicap)
1m4f | Heritage Handicap, three-year-olds | 10 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Ten three-year-olds over a mile and a half for one of the autumn's big handicaps, after HIGH STORM's withdrawal this morning, and the model sees four of them clustered at the top: DEVIL'S PEAK 21, ARCHERS BAY 17, TURTY TREE 16, STUDY OF WORDS 14. Handicaps add a layer of data the Group races do not. Every runner carries an official rating, the handicapper's assessment in pounds, and we compare it with the mark the horse last won from: a horse running from below its last winning mark is well treated, one running from well above it has to have improved. We also track which way the mark is moving across recent runs. Nobody here is a natural front-runner, with KAHIN and LIBERATE the only two left who usually race prominently, but over the Rowley Mile's middle distances that matters less than in the sprints: across 11,000 runs from a mile up to a mile and five furlongs, held-up horses have won at 0.93 times market expectation, close to par, while outright leaders still run at 1.47 when they get the chance.
DEVIL'S PEAK is the model's leader and the horse with the best figure at the trip. John and Thady Gosden's gelding, ridden by James Doyle in blinkers, won a handicap at Doncaster over this mile and a half on Good To Soft last month with a 168, "held up early, progress from 2f out, hit front with a furlong left, kept going strongly to score", the best twelve-furlong figure in the field. That followed a second in the Tote World Pool handicap at Goodwood over eleven furlongs on Good To Firm, "moved through strongly over a furlong out, into second inside the final furlong". He races off 91, 5lb above the mark he won from, and the mark is rising, the handicapper catching up rather than getting ahead, with his form trend reading +24. The Gosden yard is running at 114 against a 104 baseline, with a 26 per cent strike rate. The concern is the ground. His figure on fast going, 95, ranks only ninth of eleven, his best runs having come with some cut, and he is one of the deepest hold-up horses in the race, so he needs the gaps to come.
ARCHERS BAY is the most reliable horse in the race, and the form book backs the numbers. Marco Botti's colt, ridden by Ryan Moore from stall 10, has run figures of 129, 128 and 130 in his last three: a Shergar Cup win at Ascot in August, a close third in a heritage handicap at Ascot in September and, thirteen days ago, second in the Godolphin Stakes, a Listed race over this course and distance on Good, "closed on leader turning into straight, stayed on to finish second one length back". His consistency reading is 0, as steady as a horse can be, and his course and going figures both rank in the top four. The Ascot run is the key to the weights. He finished a length behind TURTY TREE that day while carrying 9lb more, which is why his figure was the bigger of the two; today he carries 7lb more, so on that form he is slightly better off. The price of consistency is the mark: he carries top weight off 100, 8lb above his last winning mark, and needs to run to his Listed form to defy it.
TURTY TREE is the improver. Andrew Balding's colt won that Ascot handicap off 90, "found room and began closing inside the final furlong, edged in front close home", owns the best fast-ground figure in the race at 147, and ran a 172 when second at Newbury in July; with only two handicap runs and a mark just 3lb higher, there could be more to come. DECADE OF TIME was a short head behind him at Ascot. STUDY OF WORDS comes from Charlie Appleby's yard, the hottest at the meeting, but has been off for 77 days.
DEVIL'S PEAK has the best figure at the trip, a progressive profile and the yard in form; ARCHERS BAY has the steadiest numbers in the race, course-and-distance Listed form and the edge at the weights on the Ascot line. TURTY TREE is the danger on improvement, with the best fast-ground figure in the race.
The full field
Boadicea Stakes (Listed)
6f | Listed, fillies and mares | 13 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Thirteen fillies and mares over six furlongs for the Boadicea, the last leg of the Placepot, and a race in which the class horses drop back in trip to meet the sprint specialists. The model has THE PRETTIEST STAR on 18, DANCE IN THE STORM 14, ZEN DIVA 11, and FORTY YEARS ON, also on 14, was withdrawn this morning. There is no recognised front-runner: ISLE OF FERNANDEZ and ZEN DIVA are the most forward-going, so the early pace may be modest, and the Rowley Mile sprint study favours anything close to it, with prominent runners at 1.06 times market expectation and held-up horses at 0.69. Two of the principals met in the Sceptre at Doncaster last month, where THE PRETTIEST STAR was third and FORTY YEARS ON fourth, three-quarters of a length apart, behind PINA SONATA, who runs in the Challenge Stakes earlier on the card.
THE PRETTIEST STAR has the best form over this course of anything in the race. Ed Walker's filly, ridden by James Doyle from stall 13, was fourth in the 1000 Guineas over the Rowley Mile in May with a 168, "in touch with leaders, headway over 2f out, went fourth inside final 110yds", beaten three and a half lengths, and her course figure of 156 is the best in the field by some way. A midsummer dip followed, eleventh in the Jersey at Ascot and fifth at Deauville on Soft, before she returned to her best in the Sceptre with a 162, "urged forward 2f out, improved position with a furlong left, into third close home". The engine rates her operating level at 105, the highest here, her form trend reads +44, and her figure on fast ground, 128, is the second best in the race. The question is the trip. Her only run at six furlongs was a novice win at Nottingham as a juvenile, and she has been held up lately, so she needs the drop in distance to sharpen her rather than catch her out.
FORTY YEARS ON, a non-runner this morning, finished three-quarters of a length behind her in the Sceptre, and that was her first run in Group company. George Scott's four-year-old, ridden by William Buick from stall 9, ran a 152 there, "driven into contention 2f out, fourth and unable to close 1f out, stayed on same gait to finish", after winning two seven-furlong handicaps this season, at Newbury in June with a 143 and at Goodwood in August, "moving up strongly over 2f out, sprinted away for a comfortable win". The engine rates her operating level at 95, and the model makes her joint second on 14. Two unknowns come with her: she has never raced at six furlongs or on fast ground in our records, and she is another who comes from the back. The case is the Sceptre run, a 152 at Group 3 level, which entitles her to plenty of respect in a Listed race.
DANCE IN THE STORM is the proven sprinter among the principals, with the second-best six-furlong figure in the race, fourth in the Constantine at York with a 154 and a Chester winner before that, from Andrew Balding's in-form yard, though she too is held up. ZEN DIVA is the one most likely to be handy: Ralph Beckett's filly has won three handicaps at Salisbury, the latest the Lochsong over this trip with a 146, "moved through inside the final furlong to hit the front and stay on strongly to the line", and her form trend of +48 is the biggest rise in the field. CHERRY BAKER owns the best six-furlong figure, 142, and ran a 173 at Yarmouth last time, and ROGUE ATTRACTION has the best going figure, but both swing widely from run to run.
THE PRETTIEST STAR has the class, the course form and the engine's highest operating level; FORTY YEARS ON, now withdrawn, had the Sceptre run alongside her. THE PRETTIEST STAR still needs to show she has the speed for six furlongs, and that is where DANCE IN THE STORM and ZEN DIVA, the two proven at the trip, come in.
The full field
Pride Stakes (Group 3)
1m2f | Group 3, fillies and mares | 14 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Sixteen fillies and mares over a mile and a quarter for the Pride, the first of the two races outside the Placepot, and the most open race on the card: NAGA and TOULEEN share the top on 13, SILVER LAKE has 9, LIZZANA 8, and nothing else reaches 7. In a race this open the shape matters, and there is no recognised front-runner in the field, with only LIZZANA and SONG OF THE CLOUDS racing prominently as a habit. Over the Rowley Mile's middle distances the study is clear about who benefits from a soft lead: across 1,420 runs, horses that led won at 1.47 times market expectation. That makes the filly who led all the way last time the obvious point of interest.
NAGA is that filly, and she arrives off the biggest figure in the race. John and Thady Gosden's four-year-old, ridden by Robert Havlin from stall 1, won the John Musker at Yarmouth over this mile and a quarter on Good To Soft last month with a 194, "set the pace from the outset and stayed clear throughout, pushed along a furlong from home, margin narrowed inside final 110 yards, held on for the win". Her form trend reads +38, the engine rates her operating level at 98, and the Gosden yard is running at 114 against a 104 baseline, with a 26 per cent strike rate. With no confirmed front-runner in the field and the inside stall, she has the chance to dictate again. The honest caveat is that 194 stands well clear of everything else she has done: her previous best was 154, she was sixth in the Aphrodite on the July Course in July when "held up towards the back", and her figure at this course is poor. The model rates her a joint-top 13, not a standout.
TOULEEN has the best form in the race. Owen Burrows' filly, ridden by William Buick, was sixth in the 1000 Guineas here in May with a 161, second in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, beaten a length and a half, and second again in the Sceptre at Doncaster last month with a 166, "urged forward and made ground 2f out, into second with a furlong left but unable to close", half a length ahead of THE PRETTIEST STAR, who runs in the Boadicea. The engine rates her operating level at 108, the highest in the field, and the yard is running above its baseline at 110 against 104. The questions are all about the setup: this is her first try beyond a mile, she has been held up in her recent races, she is drawn 16 and she wears cheekpieces. If she stays, she is the class act.
SILVER LAKE is the progressive one, four handicap wins in a row for William Haggas, the latest the Premier Fillies' Handicap at Doncaster over a mile and a half, with the best going figure in the race at 151, though this is her first try in Group company. LEGACY LINK was second in the Oaks at Epsom and has the best course figure, 167, but was well beaten in the Yorkshire Oaks and returns from 50 days off. LIZZANA was second in the Rosemary here thirteen days ago with a 148, "closed on leader entering final furlong", and races close to the pace. FRANCOPHONE ran a 166 when second in the Chalice on the July Course but has been off for 69 days.
NAGA has the biggest figure in the race and the chance of an uncontested lead from stall 1; TOULEEN has the best form, including the Sceptre run, and the engine's highest operating level, with the trip to prove. SILVER LAKE is the danger on progress, LEGACY LINK on class.
The full field
HKJC World Pool Handicap
7f | Class 4 Handicap, 0-80 | 11 runners
TPR percentages · every field sums to 100
Fourteen runners over seven furlongs close the card, and this is the race the wider world bets into: as part of the HKJC World Pool, the Tote pools here are co-mingled with Hong Kong's, so expect a far bigger pool than a typical Class 4 handicap. The model has NANOSCIENCE on 14 and BINTOLA on 13, LION OF MALI 11, GEORGE WICKHAM 9 and AKABUSI 8, and two of the top three met over this course and distance three weeks ago. The pace looks thin. ALBEMAGIC, on a small share, is the only confirmed front-runner, MAJESTIC DANE having been withdrawn this morning, and the rest are held up or race in midfield. As in the Cornwallis, the Rowley Mile sprint study favours whatever leads, at 1.67 times market expectation, so a horse able to sit handy has an edge.
BINTOLA has the best recent form over this exact course and distance. Harry Charlton's filly, ridden by Callum Rodriguez from stall 8, was third in a handicap here over seven furlongs on Good on 19 September with a 125, "settled towards the back on the far flank, pushed along with a furlong left, stayed on well through the closing stages, grabbed third close home", beaten a length and a quarter. That is the best seven-furlong figure in the race, and her course figure is the second best. She runs off 78, 4lb above her last winning mark, with a stable trajectory, and the Charlton yard is one of the hottest on the card, running at 109 against a twelve-month baseline of 91. The concern is consistency: before that run her figures at Salisbury and Windsor were 52 and 82, so her consistency reading of 30 says the good days and the bad ones are far apart, and she is held up in a race with little pace.
NANOSCIENCE is the steadiest horse in the race and is back on her last winning mark. Andrew Balding's filly, ridden by Oisin Murphy from stall 5, finished fifth in that same course-and-distance handicap on 19 September with a 118, "improved into contention with over two furlongs left, stayed on inside the final furlong before fading close home", a length behind Bintola. Her last three figures read 118, 118 and 128, a consistency reading of 4, and the 128 came when she won at Wetherby over seven furlongs on Good To Firm in June, when she "made all". That matters in a race short of pace: she has shown she can lead, and she runs off 75, the exact mark she won from. Balding's yard is running at 104 against a 95 baseline. On the September run she has Bintola to pass, but on a mark she has already won from, and with the option to race handier, she has the profile to reverse it.
LION OF MALI won at Newbury over seven furlongs on Good To Firm in August with a 136, "made progress 2f out to hit the front approaching the furlong marker, stayed on strongly to score", but is now 6lb higher on a rising mark; James Fanshawe's yard, which also trains PINA SONATA, is running at 109 against 95. AKABUSI is the well-treated one, 3lb below his last winning mark, and ran a 146 when third at Yarmouth last month, "sat close to the pace", from stall 1. GEORGE WICKHAM has Ryan Moore and a progressive profile from only four runs.
BINTOLA has the best course-and-distance form and the yard in form; NANOSCIENCE has the steadiest numbers, a mark she has won from and the tactical speed to sit handy. LION OF MALI and AKABUSI are the dangers, one on the hot yard and one on the handicap mark.
The full field
The day at a glance
Where the data landed, race by race.
The data, explained
New to the numbers? Quick answers below, and the full walkthrough of every metric lives in the complete EquiAnalytix data guide.
What is TPR?
TPR (Total Performance Rating) is EquiAnalytix's proprietary rating, built from a database of more than 836,000 runs. Every horse's number is derived from race times adjusted for class, going, pace and race shape, so it measures what a horse actually did rather than what the handicapper thinks of it.
What does the percentage mean?
Every horse in a race holds a TPR percentage and every field sums to 100, so the numbers read like the model's own market. Across our whole database, 73 percent of winners come from our top four ranked horses, which is why the top of the list is where every read begins.
What is the form trend?
The direction a horse's figures are moving, measured in points across recent starts. Warm positive trends mark improvers the handicapper has not caught; cold negative ones mark horses the season may have passed by. Paired with the volatility measure, it tells you whether a profile is climbing, sliding or simply erratic.
What are the breeding figures?
Sire, sire-juvenile and damsire figures measure how a stallion's stock perform as a population: at today's trip, on today's ground, or as two-year-olds before their own form exists. In unexposed fields they are the closest thing racing has to projecting a ceiling from a bloodline.
What are the conditions figures?
Going, track and distance figures isolate a horse's best performances under today's exact conditions. A high going figure on Good ground matters far more than a career best earned in a bog, and a big track figure says this course specifically brings out the horse's best. Context matters too: a figure earned on winter all-weather must translate before it counts on turf.
What is the pace forecast?
Each runner's early-position style is profiled from its history, and the race pace forecast adds them up. High numbers mean contested speed and favour those who can sit just off it; very low numbers mean a crawl and favour the prominent. On the Rowley Mile, front-runners in races up to seven furlongs have won at 1.67 times market expectation across more than 1,200 runs.
What is the OR delta?
The gap between the official mark a horse carries today and the mark it last won from. Small numbers mean the handicapper has not yet punished the horse for winning; negative numbers, the rarest and best kind, mean he has relented below it. Across our database, handicaps disproportionately go to the small end of the scale.
What is stable form?
A trainer's one-month figure against their twelve-month baseline. A yard running twenty points above its own normal level is enjoying a genuine hot streak, and our data says those streaks persist long enough to matter. But hot stables still send out cold horses: check the individual's trend before borrowing the yard's.
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